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Will Software determine the winner of the format war?

post #1 of 51
5/20/07 at 3:07pm
Thread Starter 
Or will there not be a winner?

I am the new owner of a samsung bdp1200 as of this morning with the price drop.

When i went to pick it up, the three people in front of me were buying Toshiba HDVD players. Two of the low end unit and one top end unit.

While we were waiting to pay, we got to talking about why we were buying what we were buying.

I chose the samsung for Pirates which is coming out on Tuesday. All three of the HDDVD buyers said they were buying it for the Matrix trilogy.

The dealer in question is a specialty shop and say that he has no favorite in the war and that the only good thing about having both formats is that it may drive the prices down sooner. He said the downside outweighs the pluses though for two big reasons.

First is that it is keeping most from buying at all or if they do buy, it's an upscaling DVD. Even though he has set up a good display where customers can see both and the improvements are dramtic for either HD format over regular DVD. Customers just say I dont want to get stuck.

The other more subtle problem is that the content gets set to lowest common denominator in the process so that it can be used on both platforms. He had Dreamgirls and the Departed in both formats on display and they looked absolutely identical on the pioneer elite 1080p plasma.

He said there is no real way for most consumers to know which is better technically. It's all just numbers becasue you cant see it. Either format is probaly not being exploited to the fullest though the matrix and Pirates may change that.

So it comes down to titles and a few subtle things (for me I liked how the player integrated with my samsung display)

Being a computer geek from way back, it is software that sells hardware going all the way back to the Apple II and Visicalc, through Lotus and the PC and so on.

So i made the dive in the pool mainly becasue I wanted more hi def content than is available over the air/sattelite.

I dont want a winner in the format war, i just want as much choice of content as possible.

Hopefully my choice wont be obsolete too quickly.
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post #2 of 51
5/20/07 at 3:25pm
Software will indeed win this war. You made an excellent choice.

Tomorrow I'm picking up my HD DVD player..finally. $249.99 is perfect we've seen a %50 price decrease in just a year. I paid $200 for my first DVD player 3 years after its initial launch. How amazing is that?

I realize that Disney and Fox are being stubborn, I can live without their movies for another year while I wait for Universal players to drop. Until then I will support the least encumbered format and that is HD DVD but eventually I know I'll have my cake and be able to eat it too with a Samsung or Onkyo (hopefully) Universal player.

Content, or rather the fear of lack of content, is no longer a large concern for me.
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post #3 of 51
5/20/07 at 3:33pm
Software (Matrix) was the deciding factor for me for buying a HD XA2.

Conversely, if Fox and Disney start cranking out the big titles, it will benefit Blu Ray in a big way. Sony is betting the farm on this....
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post #4 of 51
5/20/07 at 3:46pm
Absolutely software will determine the format war. It's why I've believed all along Blu-ray will emerge victorious. I am fine with HD DVD coexisting though.
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post #5 of 51
5/20/07 at 4:05pm
It's important for early adopters, who aren't so concerned about the cost of players. Hardware cost, imo, is much more important if either is to garner broader support. Most people are not going to spend even $500 on a player when they think the player they have now does just fine, even on their new HD TV. (And, in fact, a good SD DVD player does look good on a new set.) There is, though, a break point somewhere. My guess is that it's $200 (and we may or may not find out later this year if that's the case). $199 is not too much to pay for a player, even if a decent SD player is available for under $100. Software isn't such a big concern because there's a small selection in either format to start with. Thus, the buyer will still be buying SD discs, regardless of which format the player is. To be sure, even at that price point, more consumers would take the plunge if there were not a format war.
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post #6 of 51
5/20/07 at 5:02pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by snoguy View Post

Or will there not be a winner?

I am the new owner of a samsung bdp1200 as of this morning with the price drop.

When i went to pick it up, the three people in front of me were buying Toshiba HDVD players. Two of the low end unit and one top end unit.

While we were waiting to pay, we got to talking about why we were buying what we were buying.

I chose the samsung for Pirates which is coming out on Tuesday. All three of the HDDVD buyers said they were buying it for the Matrix trilogy.

The dealer in question is a specialty shop and say that he has no favorite in the war and that the only good thing about having both formats is that it may drive the prices down sooner. He said the downside outweighs the pluses though for two big reasons.

First is that it is keeping most from buying at all or if they do buy, it's an upscaling DVD. Even though he has set up a good display where customers can see both and the improvements are dramtic for either HD format over regular DVD. Customers just say I dont want to get stuck.

The other more subtle problem is that the content gets set to lowest common denominator in the process so that it can be used on both platforms. He had Dreamgirls and the Departed in both formats on display and they looked absolutely identical on the pioneer elite 1080p plasma.

He said there is no real way for most consumers to know which is better technically. It's all just numbers becasue you cant see it. Either format is probaly not being exploited to the fullest though the matrix and Pirates may change that.

So it comes down to titles and a few subtle things (for me I liked how the player integrated with my samsung display)

Being a computer geek from way back, it is software that sells hardware going all the way back to the Apple II and Visicalc, through Lotus and the PC and so on.

So i made the dive in the pool mainly becasue I wanted more hi def content than is available over the air/sattelite.

I dont want a winner in the format war, i just want as much choice of content as possible.

Hopefully my choice wont be obsolete too quickly.

I disagree. The masses decide on price.

People pull the plug on buying when must-have content comes out, AND the overall price is right. If the titles had been for the opposite formats, you would have seen one affluent guy buying a Blue-Ray for Matrix and bunches buying HD DVD for Pirates.

It may be content that gets people leaning on format, but it's price that makes them open the wallet. $300 is a much easier threshold than $800.
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post #7 of 51
5/20/07 at 5:18pm
Not really....the masses could care less.And won't care at all for a few years. This idea of who gets to $200 hardware first is the biggest misonception of all. When they reach $200, sales will inc marginally at best. THe fact is, most folks see little PQ issues with their DVD players. By the time they care, all players from both formats will the same price and content and marketing will determine the winner....Advantage: Blu Ray.
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post #8 of 51
5/20/07 at 5:27pm
The Bland,

Quote:


This idea of who gets to $200 hardware first is the biggest misonception of all. When they reach $200, sales will inc marginally at best

I disagree. The idea that price doesn't matter is absurd. One never saw $1K BD players flying off the shelf and you still dont.

You could hand people 20 free BD movies, and they still wouldnt shell out $1k for a player. They might if the price were half that.

I distrust anecdotal evidence, but I had to go BB today to pick up a memory card, and 3 people were in line with the A2. I asked why, and they said the $100 price drop and the Matrix on Tuesday.

Their statement implies that even in spite of the Matrix, they wouldnt have bought the A2 at $399, but they would at $299.
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post #9 of 51
5/20/07 at 5:34pm
We already know that BD has the advantage of exclusive studios - so this isn't going to change, we also already know the BDA has gone on a marketing tear, spending billions on ads and PR. YET we also know that BD sales have been stagnant since the start of the year and on a weekly basis, HD DVD has closed the sales ratio to around 1.5:1.

Most logical people will say that so far the BDA marketing has been a failure. Slowly but surely they are letting HD DVD establish a foothold, from where they can exploit their economic advantage. BDA got bogged down and the PS3 shock and awe failed....I am afraid, they can conitue spending on this war.
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post #10 of 51
5/20/07 at 5:36pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by thebland View Post

Not really....the masses could care less.And won't care at all for a few years. This idea of who gets to $200 hardware first is the biggest misonception of all. When they reach $200, sales will inc marginally at best. THe fact is, most folks see little PQ issues with their DVD players. By the time they care, all players from both formats will the same price and content and marketing will determine the winner....Advantage: Blu Ray.

LOL^ Yeah, price means nothing - what is the best selling BD player? Oh yeah, the cheapest, the PS3.

So, lets say hypothetically the Wal-Mart deal is indeed more then just rumor and officially gets announced/happens - there is an immediate impact and surge in hardware sales, even if it's slow but steady, do you still insist the BR exclusive studios will say "so what, we don't care, we're not budging!" - I think you'd be in for a serious eye opener if you don't think the mere news of that alone won't send shockwaves throughout the battlefront - in a hurry.
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post #11 of 51
5/20/07 at 5:51pm
As a Blu Ray supporter, I have to agree that Universal is putting out a hell of a lot more HD content than many of the Blu Ray only studio's, the last little while. As a Canadian, I also have the opportunity to cross border shop in nearby New York State. I'm finding that some titles on Blu Ray have not made it across the border yet and that makes it difficult to find content. The only advantages that Canadian's have is price. We pay about the same per disk as U.S. consumers, but with the fall of the U.S. dollar recently, that's only 10%. With taxation differences, the disks are only about 5% cheaper in Canada. Hardware is a different story, with prices being $200.00 more expensive in Canada. The same goes for HD DVD. What I really wish to see happen is a decrease in the price of software. I find it difficult to see HD disks being over $35.00 when the SD versions are in the $5.00 bins at your local Walmart. Until there is a drop in software prices, we can never begin to see people buying the hardware. More than software being the deciding factor in the format war, price of software may be a bigger factor.
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post #12 of 51
5/20/07 at 5:59pm
...then there's the other software in this war to consider as well - the games. BD exclusive studio's may soon be watching $200 (and possibly lower) HD-DVD players selling strong, while at the same time seeing games finally on shelves for the PS3, the only BD player really out there in number (at this time), the games are simply more competition to those studios for the consumers dollar...so will the guy who only has $50 to spend this week buy their movie, or the long awaited game he's been wanting? Who knows, but if they release their movies on HD-DVD as well....well, they KNOW he's buyin' it, not a game - advantage: HD-DVD. =)
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post #13 of 51
5/20/07 at 6:01pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

YET we also know that BD sales have been stagnant since the start of the year and on a weekly basis, HD DVD has closed the sales ratio to around 1.5:1.

Whoooaaaa...if you look at long term trends as opposed to the last few months it's HD-DVD that's been stagnant...in fact, HD-DVD sales have been stagnant when you look at long term AND short term trends, and that's despite anecdotal evidence about massive buyings of Hd-DVD players and toshiba basically bleeding itself dry by cutting its profits so much.
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post #14 of 51
5/20/07 at 6:02pm
Quote:


I find it difficult to see HD disks being over $35.00 when the SD versions are in the $5.00 bins at your local Walmart. Until there is a drop in software prices, we can never begin to see people buying the hardware. More than software being the deciding factor in the format war, price of software may be a bigger factor.

That's right, If one or the other can get those software prices down 20%, then then we will have something.

It kills me that I just paid $28 for The Fountain, and in four weeks $6 SDs will litter the used bins.
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post #15 of 51
5/20/07 at 6:05pm
price of hardware and price of software is going to make the difference. Content comes in third, plenty out there already and more to come
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post #16 of 51
5/20/07 at 6:09pm
some may say "few years for the average joe"... to me, $299 HD DVD is closer to the reg joe now that the $999 Blu Ray regardless of content...heck in a few years you could see neutrality or Universal movie releases at the top of the World etc, but one thing for sure is that if HD DVD players are being sold at a low price with low risks and they reach millions then if one studio remains the sole supporter it would then be banking more money than the ones competing elsewhere...for sure that particular studio could afford to buy/sign the better content material and personel..just my 2 cents.
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post #17 of 51
5/20/07 at 7:06pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by heatfuego View Post

some may say "few years for the average joe"... to me, $299 HD DVD is closer to the reg joe now that the $999 Blu Ray regardless of content...heck in a few years you could see neutrality or Universal movie releases at the top of the World etc, but one thing for sure is that if HD DVD players are being sold at a low price with low risks and they reach millions then if one studio remains the sole supporter it would then be banking more money than the ones competing elsewhere...for sure that particular studio could afford to buy/sign the better content material and personel..just my 2 cents.

I agree about the lower priced HD DVD players, but once the Univeral catalogue gets exhausted, and FOX, plus Disney starts gearing up, there will come a time when the HD DVD catalogue will become stagnant. Blu Ray players can be had on-line for $400.00. I should know, I bought one 3 months ago. Where Blu Ray needs to improve, is lower prices in the B&M stores. J6P shops there, not online. He is going to buy were he sees the product and gets a demo. He can't get that demo online.
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post #18 of 51
5/20/07 at 7:34pm
LEt me ask this, on the day HD DVD players hit $199....of the 100,000,000 potential buyers...how many will ditch regular DVD for a paltry HD DVD player and library of films.....very, very, very few... It will take at least a couple, two or three years for a mass movement...and by that time, Blu Ray comparable in price and have the catalog everyone wants. So, in fact HD DVD's early lead may help awareness of HD video but it may end up helping out Sony more as potential buyers examine HD video more closely.,,,They'll see Blu Ray has more flix and better and more studios.
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post #19 of 51
5/20/07 at 7:42pm
Prince, if Universal is able to exhaust their library on HD-DVD, HD-DVD will be so entrenched by that time that Fox and Disney will be releasing on HD as well as that market will be too hard to pass up. You had better hope that HD is gone before Universal can get around to releasing all thier films by that time.
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post #20 of 51
5/20/07 at 7:53pm
Thread Starter 
I think that may be more true than most realize. Right now which format is superior is irrelevant.

It's getting people past the belief that upconverted DVD is more than good enough.

High prices of software dont help either and the content companies are blind to an opportunity that would benefit them. They are so concerned about piracy but since HDDVD and BluRay are much harder to casually copy then regular DVDs, it should be a no brainer that the hi def disks should be the same price and released on the same day as regular DVDs. That waythose dont get copied/ripped as commonly

Wanting to own and control it all will fail. It looks like the companies learned nothing from SACD and DVD audio. Both were solid improvements over CD but format wars ended up with both failing.

I hope that does not happen. Of course it's possible that the studios are afraid of making the quality so good that people dont have a reason to go the movies. Stupid idea if that's even slightly true
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post #21 of 51
5/20/07 at 7:53pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by thebland View Post

LEt me ask this, on the day HD DVD players hit $199....of the 100,000,000 potential buyers...how many will ditch regular DVD for a paltry HD DVD player and library of films.....very, very, very few... It will take at least a couple, two or three years for a mass movement...and by that time, Blu Ray comparable in price and have the catalog everyone wants. So, in fact HD DVD's early lead may help awareness of HD video but it may end up helping out Sony more as potential buyers examine HD video more closely.,,,They'll see Blu Ray has more flix and better and more studios.

A couple of things. Prices of software must fall to close to where SD disks are today, if the HD format(s) have a chance to become accepted. I'm sure that the average consumer has passed by the new HD Disks and wondered about it, when they were in the mood to buy an SD flick. They look at the price and say, "in your dreams, that we'll pay that much for a movie".

The other factor may be two years down the road when all over the air transmitters, in the U.S., shut off their anlog signal and broadcast a digital, HD style signal. When the average consumer gets used to the HD picture, they're going to want better picture quality out of their DVD's. At that point, mass acceptance will happen. We are not yet to that point and until we do, then this argument is moot. Both HD DVD and Blu Ray will not be accepted in the big picture. I have come to the conclusion that it's becoming counterproductive to lash out and attack the other side, when they are in the same predicament as myself. They also want their format to win, so they have a greater degree of opportunity to get and watch movies at a decent price. The bickering must stop.
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post #22 of 51
5/20/07 at 8:00pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by snoguy View Post

I think that may be more true than most realize. Right now which format is superior is irrelevant.

It's getting people past the belief that upconverted DVD is more than good enough.

High prices of software dont help either and the content companies are blind to an opportunity that would benefit them. They are so concerned about piracy but since HDDVD and BluRay are much harder to casually copy then regular DVDs, it should be a no brainer that the hi def disks should be the same price and released on the same day as regular DVDs. That waythose dont get copied/ripped as commonly

Wanting to own and control it all will fail. It looks like the companies learned nothing from SACD and DVD audio. Both were solid improvements over CD but format wars ended up with both failing.

I hope that does not happen. Of course it's possible that the studio are afraid of making the quality so good that people dont have a reason to go the movies. Stupid idea if that's even slightly true

Another great post. I too, bought in to the DVD audio and then got broadsided by SACD. I had a good DVD audio player but couldn't get enough software. I ended up getting a dual DVD audio/SACD player and then found the cost prohibitive in buying many of the titles. I can also be traced back to the 70's, when Quadrophonic hit the market. I had a number of Quad albums and 8 tracks. Then the format went poof and I've still got the software. The albums were still playable. but the 8 tracks were not useable. I don't want the HD format disks to go that route. I only have 24 Blu Ray Disks and only buy when I can get a deal.
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post #23 of 51
5/20/07 at 8:01pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by thebland View Post

LEt me ask this, on the day HD DVD players hit $199....of the 100,000,000 potential buyers...how many will ditch regular DVD for a paltry HD DVD player and library of films.....very, very, very few... It will take at least a couple, two or three years for a mass movement...and by that time, Blu Ray comparable in price and have the catalog everyone wants. So, in fact HD DVD's early lead may help awareness of HD video but it may end up helping out Sony more as potential buyers examine HD video more closely.,,,They'll see Blu Ray has more flix and better and more studios.

2 years from now the studios will be faced with cheaper HD/Blu combo players if they haven't gone neutral yet, so content will be an after thought...HD DVD is here to stay people...the fan base is growing and not turning back...the cheaper players are risk free and people are starting to see it...the "Blu Ray won the war" marketing chant no loger makes sense...forget about it...too many promising things are about to happen for HD DVD in the upcoming near future...and again...don't be so sure about 2 or 3 years for mass movement as just a few months ago HD DVD was dead , remember, look at it now...few years is an eternity and even cheaper HD DVD players are way closer than that!...the movie selections on HD DVD to me, is more fulfilling than those other studios and again, in 2 years Universal could have the best content releases
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post #24 of 51
5/20/07 at 8:40pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by thebland View Post

LEt me ask this, on the day HD DVD players hit $199....of the 100,000,000 potential buyers...how many will ditch regular DVD for a paltry HD DVD player and library of films.....very, very, very few... It will take at least a couple, two or three years for a mass movement...and by that time, Blu Ray comparable in price and have the catalog everyone wants. So, in fact HD DVD's early lead may help awareness of HD video but it may end up helping out Sony more as potential buyers examine HD video more closely.,,,They'll see Blu Ray has more flix and better and more studios.

Explain this again but with WalMart supporting HD DVD.
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post #25 of 51
5/20/07 at 8:55pm
the Bland,

You say price doesnt matter.

Then let me ask this. The day BD wins, and all films are released on BD, and players cost $500, how many of those 100,000,000 buyers are going to ditch SD DVD and switch to BD.

You DO NOT get to say that players will be cheaper, because that is irrelevant to your argument.

The answer to the question is not many. Price does matter, and so does content.

If you really think that people are going to flock to BD even with all the content in the world, and $500 players, then you are sadly mistaken.
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post #26 of 51
5/20/07 at 8:56pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Reginald Trent View Post

Explain this again but with WalMart supporting HD DVD.

This is part of the problem with taking people seriously here. The Walmart story is unsubstantiated and until there is confirmation, the information is useless. The same theing happened a week ago, when a vague letter from Pioneer in Europe said that Universal would go neutral at the end of this year on the BD side. Unsubstantiated and just another reason to keep the other side pissed off. It does no one any good, using these stories and should be shelved until there is concrete proof.
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post #27 of 51
5/20/07 at 8:59pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Reginald Trent View Post

Explain this again but with WalMart supporting HD DVD.

There is no direct proof of that. A company claims to have been approached, and Video Business says WM is going to work home entertainment in a big way this year, though.
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post #28 of 51
5/20/07 at 9:19pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slim GoodBooty View Post

There is no direct proof of that. A company claims to have been approached, and Video Business says WM is going to work home entertainment in a big way this year, though.

This story has more legs then a centipede!
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post #29 of 51
5/20/07 at 9:46pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by thebland View Post

LEt me ask this, on the day HD DVD players hit $199....of the 100,000,000 potential buyers...how many will ditch regular DVD for a paltry HD DVD player and library of films.....very, very, very few... It will take at least a couple, two or three years for a mass movement...and by that time, Blu Ray comparable in price and have the catalog everyone wants. So, in fact HD DVD's early lead may help awareness of HD video but it may end up helping out Sony more as potential buyers examine HD video more closely.,,,They'll see Blu Ray has more flix and better and more studios.

Quote:
Originally Posted by PrinceLH View Post

This is part of the problem with taking people seriously here. The Walmart story is unsubstantiated and until there is confirmation, the information is useless. The same theing happened a week ago, when a vague letter from Pioneer in Europe said that Universal would go neutral at the end of this year on the BD side. Unsubstantiated and just another reason to keep the other side pissed off. It does no one any good, using these stories and should be shelved until there is concrete proof.

I'm only speculating as is pappa smurf so what's the big deal?
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post #30 of 51
5/20/07 at 9:53pm
Where does this whole "Universal is a sole supporter" crap come from anyway? It's one of the most deliberately miss-worded claims out there.

They are the only exclusive supporter (their size). If you buy a HD DVD player you also have Warner which has some HD DVD only titles, and Paramount who is putting more features on the HD DVD incarnations.

For BD Fox has put a kink in the hose until further notice, and Warner has pulled back the reins of titles with features BD can't handle yet. By the time BD-J and BD-1 is all cleared up you'll see a lot of new HD DVD exclusives and very affordable players. BD is just moving to slow to prevent HD DVD from building a solid base.
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