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Format Battle General Discussion Thread III: Discuss it here! - Page 14  

post #391 of 4862
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrseder View Post

66/34 ratio this week. Another week where the lack of cheap players, the lack of combos, the lack of PiP, the low attach-rates and the arrogance of Sony really hurt Blu-Ray sales.


Again ... 66/34 is good with the ratio of Blu-ray players to HD DVD players? I'm thinking not.
post #392 of 4862
You are right, it isn't good. It's great.

Toshiba's pulled out all the stops recently dropping prices like crazy, and all of these new HD DVD players aren't helping them catch up. Even bundling 4 or more movies in stores isn't helping, and those count as sales. What are they going to do now?
post #393 of 4862
Quote:
Originally Posted by mikemorel View Post

There is a huge allegory for the PS3 in your words. Check out the graph above, PS3 should catch XBox by year 2200.

80K/month in PS3 US sales means that Sony has thrown away millions of PS3 sales in order to shill blu-ray. Seems to me that should bother some PS3 folk. Developers have fled and will continue to flee as long as the price is $600.

But of course it does not bother PS3 "fans", because of (IMO) blind allegience to a brand name.

I have to quibble with you on this one mike. With the slopes of the PS3 and 360 graphs, they only they way they ever meet is if we travel back in time.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2007/06...mad_scientist/

Ok, seriously, UxiSXRD could be right. For all I know, maybe the revenue from the next gen movie discs is more than from the game business. I'd be interested in seeing more data though.

Assuming the movie side is worth it, the game business becomes the sacrificial goat, so to speak.

If the game side of the business is more lucrative, it would make sense for Sony to ship a PS3 with DVD instead of BD. I'm still skeptical they'd do it. If it does happen though, it's a clear indication that the game business is more important.

As for whether or not a price cut will happen this year, there's no better indicator than the CEO saying they're reviewing the numbers. Mr. Stringer has to be feeling the pressure as the PS3 will likely take down more than Kutaragi and the rank and file employees that have been laid off.

On the HD DVD side the focus on price has been there from the beginning and they need to keep pushing. If Microsoft can get the 360 add-ons down to $99 by the Christmas season, it would be huge. Chinese stand alone players at $199 by Christmas would be huge as well.
post #394 of 4862
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdg345 View Post

Again ... 66/34 is good with the ratio of Blu-ray players to HD DVD players? I'm thinking not.

Well consider though that the PS3 is selling slowly at the moment, Fox is still MIA, and Toshiba is doing everything short of giving away their HD DVD players. Even with all that Blu-ray is still outselling HD DVD this summer in software sales. Personally I think that is a pretty good sign for Blu-ray.
post #395 of 4862
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greg Kettell View Post

You are right, it isn't good. It's great.

Toshiba's pulled out all the stops recently dropping prices like crazy, and all of these new HD DVD players aren't helping them catch up. Even bundling 4 or more movies in stores isn't helping, and those count as sales. What are they going to do now?

Start giving away players... Hhgregg is passing out free HD-A2's with any brand of TV over $999.00.



b2b
post #396 of 4862
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdg345 View Post

Again ... 66/34 is good with the ratio of Blu-ray players to HD DVD players? I'm thinking not.

Let us not have our attention be DIVERTED from the fact that the ratio IS indeed 66/34 in BD's favour. Why does it matter if it takes more Blu-ray players to achieve this? Who bloody cares? HD DVD will simply not have the luxury of BD's software sales - that is tough luck.

Who cares indeed - those who invented "attach rates" when they can't win with real numbers.
post #397 of 4862
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greg Kettell View Post

You are right, it isn't good. It's great.

Toshiba's pulled out all the stops recently dropping prices like crazy, and all of these new HD DVD players aren't helping them catch up. Even bundling 4 or more movies in stores isn't helping, and those count as sales. What are they going to do now?

Wow ... what if most of the players purchased were for father's day and are still under the 'tree' so to speak? Maybe we should give it a few weeks. If you remember correctly (and I'm sure you do), Blu-ray sales didn't really take off until after the Holidays. It's ironic how 'wait and see' and 'the future' are what the BDA folks are counting on, yet when things don't happen instantaneous for the HD DVD side, it's a big failure.

And who exactly was bundling 4+ movies in store? The (5) free movies are mail in, and do not count against sales.

Spin spin spin ... but the fact is, a few hundred THOUSAND HD DVD players, versus a few MILLION Blu-Ray players ... and the lead is 66/34 ? That's immensely sad.
post #398 of 4862
Let see, since it's only new title that sell the most (unless is a really high profile catalog) check this summer 2007 release

May 4: Spider-Man 3 (Sony)(BD)
May 18: Shrek the Third (Dreamwork, Paramount)(DUAL)
May 25: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena)(BD)
June 8: Ocean's Thirteen (WB)(DUAL)
June 15: Fantastic Four and the Silver Surfer (FOX) (BD, theorically)
June 22: Evan Almighty (Universal)(HD DVD)
June 29: Live Free or Die Hard (FOX)(BD), Ratatouille (Disney)(BD)
July 4: Transformers (Paramount)(BOTH)
July 13: Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (WB)(BOTH)
July 27: The Simpsons Movie (Fox)(BD)
August 3: The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal)(HD DVD)
August 10: Rush Hour 3 (New Line)(NONE)

So HD DVD is sure to get : Shrek 3, Ocean 13, Evan Almighty, Transformers, HP4 and Bourne 3

Blu-ray will get (i'll include fox titles..) : SM3, Shrek 3, POTC 3, Ocean 13, FF2, Live Free or Die Hard, Ratatouille, Transmorfer, HP4, Simpson's Movie
post #399 of 4862
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Paul View Post

Well consider though that the PS3 is selling slowly at the moment, Fox is still MIA, and Toshiba is doing everything short of giving away their HD DVD players. Even with all that Blu-ray is still outselling HD DVD this summer in software sales. Personally I think that is a pretty good sign for Blu-ray.

The PS3 may be selling slowly now, but what about all the other players already in homes? I would wholly expect Blu-ray to be outselling HD DVD at this point in the game, especially considering we likely don't know the true impact this recent rush of players is having on the Nielsen/VideoScan numbers.

Again, it's like I said, if you have two football teams, the Blue-Team with 11 players and the Red-Team with 4 players ... and the Blue-Team was only leading 30 to 17 ... how many sports announcers would be praising them, and how many would be making fun of them for not blowing the red team out of the water? Seriously, Blu-ray should have sold several million discs by now, but they haven't.

The only real explanation is that attach rates are way closer than anyways from either side wants to admit because that would be horrible news for the format in general. It would show that the mass market just doesn't care.
post #400 of 4862
Quote:
Originally Posted by onanie View Post

Let us not have our attention be DIVERTED from the fact that the ratio IS indeed 66/34 in BD's favour. Why does it matter if it takes more Blu-ray players to achieve this? Who bloody cares? HD DVD will simply not have the luxury of BD's software sales - that is tough luck.

Who cares indeed - those who invented "attach rates" when they can't win with real numbers.

That just makes no sense. Sure, the numbers are 66/34 ... no one is disputing that ...

It find it funny that you throw out things like 'attach rates' that aren't in your favor, yet any ratio that does further your point becomes the focus of what *everyone* should be looking at.

In fact ... what are the number of discs, to date, sold by each side? Forget ratios, and attach rates and all that jazz ... just the solid numbers. Then compare those numbers to any (1) single DVD release and you'll see that the High Definition formats, combined, are moving a pathetic amount of plastic.
post #401 of 4862
Quote:
Originally Posted by ryoohki View Post

Let see, since it's only new title that sell the most (unless is a really high profile catalog) check this summer 2007 release

May 4: Spider-Man 3 (Sony)(BD)
May 18: Shrek the Third (Dreamwork, Paramount)(DUAL)
May 25: Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End (Buena)(BD)
June 8: Ocean's Thirteen (WB)(DUAL)
June 15: Fantastic Four and the Silver Surfer (FOX) (BD, theorically)
June 22: Evan Almighty (Universal)(HD DVD)
June 29: Live Free or Die Hard (FOX)(BD), Ratatouille (Disney)(BD)
July 4: Transformers (Paramount)(BOTH)
July 13: Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix (WB)(BOTH)
July 27: The Simpsons Movie (Fox)(BD)
August 3: The Bourne Ultimatum (Universal)(HD DVD)
August 10: Rush Hour 3 (New Line)(NONE)

So HD DVD is sure to get : Shrek 3, Ocean 13, Evan Almighty, Transformers, HP4 and Bourne 3

Blu-ray will get (i'll include fox titles..) : SM3, Shrek 3, POTC 3, Ocean 13, FF2, Live Free or Die Hard, Ratatouille, Transmorfer, HP4, Simpson's Movie

If you're going to include Fox Titles, why not include the likelihood that the WB Titles won't be available on Blu-ray at the same time?

Besides, aren't the release schedules for the end of the year in HD DVD's favor when it comes to the actual number of titles being released?
post #402 of 4862
Quote:
Originally Posted by onanie View Post

Why does it matter if it takes more Blu-ray players to achieve this?

This is my favorite HDDVD argument: "Yes, we're getting our butts kicked, but not as badly as we should be!"

Toshiba can use that as a slogan.
post #403 of 4862
Quote:
Originally Posted by mrseder View Post

This is my favorite HDDVD argument: "Yes, we're getting our butts kicked, but not as badly as we should be!"

Toshiba can use that as a slogan.

Borrowed from PS3, no doubt
post #404 of 4862
Quote:
Originally Posted by ryoohki View Post

June 8: Ocean's Thirteen (WB)(DUAL)

It's sure looking like Knocked Up is ultimately going to do better than this... so that should probably make the list as well.

I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry also has potential to be a pretty good sized flick this summer.
post #405 of 4862
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdg345 View Post

And who exactly was bundling 4+ movies in store? The (5) free movies are mail in, and do not count against sales.

CC was throwing in four hd dvds with every HD DVD player a couple of months ago. You could just pick the titles you wanted off the shelf.
post #406 of 4862
Quote:
Originally Posted by Buckeye911 View Post

CC was throwing in four hd dvds with every HD DVD player a couple of months ago. You could just pick the titles you wanted off the shelf.

Wow ... I completely missed that ... I only knew of the 2 free up to $60 deal, but never 4 ... oh well, the SPE 50% Off Sale is really no different ... and they've run a few of those to date ...
post #407 of 4862
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdg345 View Post

Wow ... what if most of the players purchased were for father's day and are still under the 'tree' so to speak? Maybe we should give it a few weeks. If you remember correctly (and I'm sure you do), Blu-ray sales didn't really take off until after the Holidays. It's ironic how 'wait and see' and 'the future' are what the BDA folks are counting on, yet when things don't happen instantaneous for the HD DVD side, it's a big failure.

And who exactly was bundling 4+ movies in store? The (5) free movies are mail in, and do not count against sales.

Spin spin spin ... but the fact is, a few hundred THOUSAND HD DVD players, versus a few MILLION Blu-Ray players ... and the lead is 66/34 ? That's immensely sad.

Prior to the current rebate promotion, Best Buy &.Circuit City were doing promotions giving away 4 discs with Toshiba player purchase.

Other retailers like Value Electronics are giving away movies with a player purchase.

Best Buy and Circuit City are now giving away two free movies with XBOX 360 add-on purchases.

All of these counted and count as retail sales.
post #408 of 4862
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greg Kettell View Post

Prior to the current rebate promotion, Best Buy &.Circuit City were doing promotions giving away 4 discs with Toshiba player purchase.

Other retailers like Value Electronics are giving away movies with a player purchase.

Best Buy and Circuit City are now giving away two free movies with XBOX 360 add-on purchases.

All of these counted and count as retail sales.

Probably just a fire sale to clear up inventory dollars for all the upcoming Blu-ray titles.
post #409 of 4862
We are still very early in this war, and most people still don't have HDTVs. I would expect to see both formats grow expedentially as HDTV ownership increases. The PS3 is a great value for everything that it does, but for most people it is still too expensive. The cheaper stand-alone Blu-ray players are really going to slow PS3 sales as a movie player, and the lack of really good exclusive games is going to hurt the PS3 as well. From what I gather talking to my teenage son is that Halo 3 is going to be huge for the 360. I'm guessing that the 360 sales are going to increase dramatically at the end of September when Halo 3 is released. It's relevent to this forum because the increase in 360 sales will cut into the PS3 sales. If Sony does indeed lower the price of the PS3 by the end of the year, then I will probably buy one. Even the HD DVD owners on this forum realize that the PS3 is a tremendous value even at it's current price, but that's because we know what goes into the PS3. The general population doesn't know or care about the things that most people on this forum care about. They just want a cheap HD DVD or Blu-ray player that will play HD movies on their TVs with the sound through their TV speakers and there's nothing wrong with that.
post #410 of 4862
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdg345 View Post

It's ironic how 'wait and see' and 'the future' are what the BDA folks are counting on, yet when things don't happen instantaneous for the HD DVD side, it's a big failure.

Personally I think that Toshiba's cost reductions on their HD DVD players are helping HD DVD software sales. As for irony I think that can more easily be found in the fact that the same HD DVD supporters who used to mock Blu-ray supporters for talking about the future now spend a good amount of their time talking about it.


Quote:
Originally Posted by jdg345 View Post

a few hundred THOUSAND HD DVD players, versus a few MILLION Blu-Ray players ... and the lead is 66/34 ? That's immensely sad.

If you are going to consider the PS3 to be a Blu-ray player doesn't that mean that Blu-ray has outsold HD DVD in both hardware and software? Or do you intend to consider the PS3 to be a Blu-ray player only when it suits you?


Quote:
Originally Posted by jdg345 View Post

Again, it's like I said, if you have two football teams, the Blue-Team with 11 players and the Red-Team with 4 players ... and the Blue-Team was only leading 30 to 17 ... how many sports announcers would be praising them, and how many would be making fun of them for not blowing the red team out of the water?

Granted there are more companies supporting Blu-ray but last I checked there are a few multi-billion dollar companies supporting HD DVD. Also as long as Blu-ray wins this format war what difference does it make by what amount they did it?


Quote:
Originally Posted by jdg345 View Post

Seriously, Blu-ray should have sold several million discs by now, but they haven't.

Not everyone that bought a PS3 is playing Blu-ray discs at the moment and I am pretty sure you knew that already.


Quote:
Originally Posted by jdg345 View Post

If you're going to include Fox Titles, why not include the likelihood that the WB Titles won't be available on Blu-ray at the same time?

Well once we start seeing BD-Video 1.1 players on the market Warner won't have an excuse anymore for delaying several of their big name movies. At which point we will see if Warner is in some form being paid to favor HD DVD or if they are truly neutral in this format war.
post #411 of 4862
Quote:
Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

Borrowed from PS3, no doubt

Laugh Out Loud. Great come back.
post #412 of 4862
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdg345 View Post

That just makes no sense. Sure, the numbers are 66/34 ... no one is disputing that ...

It find it funny that you throw out things like 'attach rates' that aren't in your favor, yet any ratio that does further your point becomes the focus of what *everyone* should be looking at.

In fact ... what are the number of discs, to date, sold by each side? Forget ratios, and attach rates and all that jazz ... just the solid numbers. Then compare those numbers to any (1) single DVD release and you'll see that the High Definition formats, combined, are moving a pathetic amount of plastic.

Don't get me wrong. I'm all for attach rates, until the reality of absolute sales sets in. You can have an attach rate like fruit flies on banana, and it doesn't matter one bit if you still sell less than the opposition. Why then, should attach rates be the focus of anyone's attention like YOU insist? It is simply diversionary.

I suppose when one's preferred format is beaten, big brother DVD comes in to say how everything so far hasn't been important. Should one suppose that BD can't beat HD until DVD says so? That's a little unfair, don't you think.
post #413 of 4862
Quote:
Originally Posted by alfbinet View Post

Laugh Out Loud. Great come back.

Personally I thought it was just another typical statement ridiculing the PS3 which nataraj often makes when anyone mentions the fact that Blu-ray is outselling HD DVD. Since Blu-ray is outselling HD DVD there really isn't that much that can be said against that and as such some HD DVD supporters for some reason try to make up for that by finding something else to attack/ridicule. Just my opinion for why nataraj's response was in no way surprising and was actually somewhat expected.
post #414 of 4862
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greg Kettell View Post

You are right, it isn't good. It's great.

Toshiba's pulled out all the stops recently dropping prices like crazy, and all of these new HD DVD players aren't helping them catch up. Even bundling 4 or more movies in stores isn't helping, and those count as sales. What are they going to do now?

They don't need to do anything now. HD DVD standalones have been outselling BD standalones for a long time and according to reports that rate has only increased. Since standalones have a higher attach rate than game systems all HD DVD has to do is to keep selling standalones. That's it. This is going to be a long format war and one that I think will ultimately be decided by dual format players. There are simply too many companies with too big of a stake in each format for either of them to go away now.

I'm an HD DVD fan, but even I must admit that if HD DVD clearly won the format war BD would likely remain if only as a good medium for computer data.
post #415 of 4862
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Paul View Post

Personally I think that Toshiba's cost reductions on their HD DVD players are helping HD DVD software sales. As for irony I think that can more easily be found in the fact that the same HD DVD supporters who used to mock Blu-ray supporters for talking about the future now spend a good amount of their time talking about it.

But that is just my point, many of the BDA Supporters harping on HD-DVD Software sales were the same ones using the 'PS3 Under The Tree' Excuse 6 months ago. For the record, I agreed with them when it came to software sales back then as I felt we wouldn't see a major change until people started unwrapping their toys and cashing in their gift cards. Frankly, I wish people would pick a stance and stay with it. I guess part of the problem, though, is that we're lumping all BDA and HD DVD Supporters together, when they don't all necessarily share *all* the same views.

Quote:


If you are going to consider the PS3 to be a Blu-ray player doesn't that mean that Blu-ray has outsold HD DVD in both hardware and software? Or do you intend to consider the PS3 to be a Blu-ray player only when it suits you?

I'm not really suggesting that all PS3's are used to watch movies; unfortunately, we don't have any idea what the real numbers are. That said, it was Sony that basically trojan horsed this thing and they are the first ones to use the PS3 numbers as sales when it suits them, and conveniently leave them out when it doesn't ... sometimes even in the same press release.

Quote:


Granted there are more companies supporting Blu-ray but last I checked there are a few multi-billion dollar companies supporting HD DVD. Also as long as Blu-ray wins this format war what difference does it make by what amount they did it?

Right ... so in the end, it's a lot closer than what everyone seems to be making it out to be. If we start counting Indy studios, then HD DVD has more support; but who has more titles? In the end, it's pretty close. Blu-ray has 30 more or so, with HD-DVD scheduled to release a +30 delta by end of year. Plus, when you factor in that you can get some of the Blu-ray exclusive titles across the pond on HD-DVD, and the delta is even smaller. In fact, I heard Disney's Bridge to Terabithia is going to be out on HD-DVD. *shrug*

Quote:


Not everyone that bought a PS3 is playing Blu-ray discs at the moment and I am pretty sure you knew that already.

Agree ... but they're likely not playing games on it either, fwiw.

Quote:


Well once we start seeing BD-Video 1.1 players on the market Warner won't have an excuse anymore for delaying several of their big name movies. At which point we will see if Warner is in some form being paid to favor HD DVD or if they are truly neutral in this format war.

Exactly! I'm waiting to see how that pans out myself. If WB starts pumping out BD1.1 releases, then we'll know they just weren't blowing smoke with their excuses like some of the other studios have been doing (ala Fox, Disney, Universal, etc).
post #416 of 4862
Quote:
Originally Posted by onanie View Post

Don't get me wrong. I'm all for attach rates, until the reality of absolute sales sets in. You can have an attach rate like fruit flies on banana, and it doesn't matter one bit if you still sell less than the opposition. Why then, should attach rates be the focus of anyone's attention like YOU insist? It is simply diversionary.

I suppose when one's preferred format is beaten, big brother DVD comes in to say how everything so far hasn't been important. Should one suppose that BD can't beat HD until DVD says so? That's a little unfair, don't you think.

Why not? Sony said Next-Gen didn't start until they said so.

My point is you can't take one without the other ... sure, there are more discs, but the numbers are relatively pathetic compared to DVD (even if you combine both formats). Sure, Blu-ray is ahead of HD DVD when they're taken individually, but by how much? How many real discs? It seems like the delta is nothing more than something someone with a relatively decent credit card limit can skew all by themselves.

I guess I'm just tired of the: HD DVD sold 4 more standalone players than Blu-ray did! And the Blu-ray is leading Disc Sales by x% this week! If people are going to start claiming numbers, you should claim them all, the good with the bad. And, imo, when you look at the big picture, this thing hasn't even really gotten started yet. I think the big swing will start Holiday 2007 and into CES 2008. If one of the majors goes Neutral at CES and/or we start to see $150 HD/BR players for the Holidays ... well, it's going to be a tough 2008 for someone.
post #417 of 4862
btw, for those that have been ridiculing Toshiba for practically giving away HD DVD players in order to stay in the game ... isn't that what Sony did with the PS3 to get back in the game? I mean, technically, the PS3 is a Game Console with a Free Blu-Ray Player, isn't it? So while Toshiba might have 'given away' a few tens of thousands (and no one knows how much they lost per unit, or if they made money, or were break even, etc) ... Sony has given away quite a few million ... whether they sold or not, they're out there.
post #418 of 4862
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdg345 View Post

btw, for those that have been ridiculing Toshiba for practically giving away HD DVD players in order to stay in the game ... isn't that what Sony did with the PS3 to get back in the game? I mean, technically, the PS3 is a Game Console with a Free Blu-Ray Player, isn't it? So while Toshiba might have 'given away' a few tens of thousands (and no one knows how much they lost per unit, or if they made money, or were break even, etc) ... Sony has given away quite a few million ... whether they sold or not, they're out there.

Are you saying that the PS3 would retail for $599 without the Blu-ray player?

That makes no sense to me. Perhaps you can explain how Sony would offer a PS3 sans Blu-ray at the same price as the PS3 with Blu-ray?

I look forward to reading your economic rationale for this.
post #419 of 4862
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdg345 View Post

I guess I'm just tired of the: HD DVD sold 4 more standalone players than Blu-ray did! And the Blu-ray is leading Disc Sales by x% this week! If people are going to start claiming numbers, you should claim them all, the good with the bad. And, imo, when you look at the big picture, this thing hasn't even really gotten started yet. I think the big swing will start Holiday 2007 and into CES 2008. If one of the majors goes Neutral at CES and/or we start to see $150 HD/BR players for the Holidays ... well, it's going to be a tough 2008 for someone.

Mostly agree. By Holiday 2007 we may see Chinese players driving prices < $200.

However we may also see somewhat lower BD player prices. And if they actually get BD+/BD-J out we may see Fox & MGM releases again which might lengthen the already prevalent BD lead on the number of titles available.

Last Xmas I was watching to see if PS3 made any difference. They had an extremely low attach rate but still had MUCH more effect than I had predicted. This year I'll be watching prices and number of releases by Xmas.

If all this comes to pass then by 2008 I'll mostly just be watching sales trends again.

- Tom
post #420 of 4862
Quote:
Originally Posted by fozziwig View Post

Are you saying that the PS3 would retail for $599 without the Blu-ray player?

That makes no sense to me. Perhaps you can explain how Sony would offer a PS3 sans Blu-ray at the same price as the PS3 with Blu-ray?

I look forward to reading your economic rationale for this.

The point is, it's a bundle ... if you want it for games, you get a Free Blu-ray player. Most of the hard core gamers bought the PS3 to play games on ... and they got a free BR player out of it. They would have bought the PS3 for $600 with or without the BR Drive -- as evidenced by the folks who paid over $3k for one 6 months ago -- not to mention the poor attach rates.

Oh, and Best Buy is offering a deal now where if you buy a Sony TV and a PS3, you get a $400 instant savings, plus you get a BR movie and a PS3 Game.

See? They're all doing it ... *shrug*
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