Hypothesis for HD DVD in the second half of the year

I'd like Toshiba to run a free HD DVD program where the purchaser can get free HD DVDs right there at the store they're purchasing the player from. This would be done through some type of voucher or maybe they will include buy one get one free coupons.

This way it still provides incentive for people to go into the store and pick up a player and also the free movies will be counted as disc sales. Then Toshiba can finally start counting all those freebie discs like BR has been which should bump up the disc sales data significantly.

I just purchased the A20 2 weeks ago. Love it. Goes with the Samsung 4066 LCD that I just purchased. The A20 came with 4 free instore movies at the time of purchase from BB. Then I can also mail in the rebate form for the 5 free movies also. So that's 9 free. Awesome player. So the $499 price tag wasn't that bad considering that @ $25 per movie, that was @ $225 off the price tag.

I think they sould just keep pushing along the way they have been, it seems to be working well.

I also think Warner should drop blu-ray, the Ce delays of specs and the decline of the PS3 shows it not to be a viable format. Make them pay for making them keep delaying top requested titles. Bring New Line on Line.

I think the prices on all three models will drop by fall with new MSRP.

A2 will be MSRP 299
A20 will be MSRP 399
XA2 will be MSRP 599

Maybe even 50 to 100 dollars more off starting the holdiay season.

I also think that titles released will continue to slowly increase per week/month due to the manufacturing advantage of regular DVD lines easily converted vs. BD. This will even up titles available on both formats by holidays, and eventually lead to HD DVD again overtaking BD. I'm not referring to the "800 titles sanfu", I just think ease of production will start to become an ally to HD DVD.

I see a couple more Pseudo exclusive HD DVD titles that will help get people (Harry Potter series, Star Trek Movies, and actual exclusive Back to the Future Trilogy). Possibly a few more. Maybe even slip a Spielberg exclusive (Jaws anyone?).

I see an advertising blitz getting stonger every month leading up to the holidays. Then displays all over, including the most important places of all- Walmart and Costco.

I see a fw upgrade by fall or holiday season activating all the DTS-HD varieties on 1st and 2nd gen players. I also see this as part of the ad campaign (the only player that decodes ALL next gen audio standard, ethernet standard, memory standard, etc). A great idea would be commercials similar to Mac vs. PC (although get Apple's permission, they do like to sue).

Maybe HD DVD promo group "requesting" that non-combos ALL sell for 19.99 and combos ALL sell for 24.99 so there is some standardization of price scale at the retail level. That would help spur sales as well (plus they'd end up being even cheaper online

Finally, I think there WILL be at least one big studio making news. Definitely LOTR by Newline (but they will most likely stay neutral). Either someone going neutral that currently isn't, OR perhaps a neutral studio going HD DVD only (I think the former is more likely).

Any combo of these is VERY good news for HD DVD. Not to mention that PS3 sales will continue to fall exponentially as the Wii keeps kicking #*$

All four Harry Potter movies in a box like The Matrix a couple of months before the 31st of October should sell a few players.

I would expect that the 3rd gen players will all suport 1080p,will do 1080/24 and with have a wireless internet connection on the two higher priced models. I would also expect that the street selling price for the lowest priced model will be $199 by the holiday season with a few disks free with purchase. We should also see more specials on disks with lower prices.