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Will more player sales translate into disc sales?

post #1 of 44
5/27/07 at 6:22pm
Thread Starter 
Lots of talk around here about all the HD DVD player sales with Toshiba's promotions. Is this enough to see some increases in HD DVD disc sales? What do you think and why?

Cheers,

Grant
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post #2 of 44
5/27/07 at 6:30pm
of course not, why would you even ask such a silly question. that makes no sense at all. why would more players out there equate to more sales of movies?
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post #3 of 44
5/27/07 at 6:30pm
No doubt. Depends on what time frame you're looking at though. I don't expect to see HD-DVD disk sales just take off all of the sudden. But what I do expect is that the floor will continue to rise as time goes on, until HD-DVD disk sales are every bit as heathly as BD sales, if not healthier.
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post #4 of 44
5/27/07 at 6:31pm
I though so then I wondered how many bought the HD-A2 during the $100.00 off promotion as a second player.
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post #5 of 44
5/27/07 at 6:47pm
I noticed an increase in price on the "budget"* HD DVDs over the last couple of weeks.

*Budget being used or liquidated New Discs (i.e. look under the Amazon new/used section)
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post #6 of 44
5/27/07 at 7:16pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deja Vu View Post

Lots of talk around here about all the HD DVD player sales with Toshiba's promotions. Is this enough to see some increases in HD DVD disc sales? What do you think and why?

They might lower the attach rates, but they should increase the numbers for HD DVDs sold. Even if some people who buy them end up buying zero discs (or zero extra discs over their current player), there are others who will buy discs. If the Blu-ray side just sits around and doesn't react, then I would expect to see the ratio of disc sales to move in the positive direction for HD DVD.

I do wonder if Toshiba is going to have promotions outside of the US or North America or if their strategy is more to concentrate these there and hope that is enough.

--Darin
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post #7 of 44
5/27/07 at 7:23pm
I know for me it did, just got my a2 friday, and just put my order in for another 10 HD DVD's. Which brings me to a total of 18 new movies .
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post #8 of 44
5/27/07 at 7:51pm
Did people buy HDDVD players to watch BDs on?
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post #9 of 44
5/27/07 at 8:00pm
Great thing about HDDVD players is your going to buy HDDVDs for it.

W/ the ps3 you've got gamers and movie watchers so it can go either way.


Although with the low prices of the A2s one may buy it as a upconverting player. But I'd say 99% of HDDVD player buyers are getting the machine for HDDVDs.
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post #10 of 44
5/27/07 at 9:09pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by homerx View Post

Great thing about HDDVD players is your going to buy HDDVDs for it.

W/ the ps3 you've got gamers and movie watchers so it can go either way.


Although with the low prices of the A2s one may buy it as a upconverting player. But I'd say 99% of HDDVD player buyers are getting the machine for HDDVDs.


The other option is to buy it as an upconverter and RENT HD-DVD's until the war is over.



Figured I'd mention it because it's been a known thing to happen around here.
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post #11 of 44
5/27/07 at 9:44pm
OP, It's hard to imagine anyone would do otherwise? I suppose there's somebody out there that will be content with 5 attach discs. My library grows monthly.
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post #12 of 44
5/27/07 at 9:48pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by youknowryan View Post

of course not, why would you even ask such a silly question. that makes no sense at all. why would more players out there equate to more sales of movies?

Are you serious? Who's going to buy a new player and not get any movies for it? Simple logic would say, for example, if there were only half the amount of players sold then there is now, there would only be approximately half the amount of discs sold.
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post #13 of 44
5/27/07 at 9:50pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deja Vu View Post

Lots of talk around here about all the HD DVD player sales with Toshiba's promotions. Is this enough to see some increases in HD DVD disc sales? What do you think and why?

Cheers,

Grant

Of course. It's like asking if you'll ever need to buy more food to feed the family when you have 5 kids verses only one.
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post #14 of 44
5/27/07 at 10:00pm
With Batman Begins on HDDVD moving back up in the slaes rankings is a good indication the new HDDVD player owners are buying movies.
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post #15 of 44
5/27/07 at 10:31pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slim GoodBooty View Post

Did people buy HDDVD players to watch BDs on?

No, but I'm sure there are other HD-DVD player owners like me who don't buy many movies. Ok, I couldn't pass up the $19.99 Matrix deal. But in general I prefer to rent from Netflix...since I usually watch a movie once or twice. Not worth it to me to pay $20+ if I'm only going to play it a couple of times.
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post #16 of 44
5/27/07 at 10:33pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deja Vu View Post

Lots of talk around here about all the HD DVD player sales with Toshiba's promotions. Is this enough to see some increases in HD DVD disc sales? What do you think and why?

Cheers,

Grant

I rent while waiting for the prices to go down - $20-25 per disk is a bit too much for me....
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post #17 of 44
5/27/07 at 11:31pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by vladi123456 View Post

I rent while waiting for the prices to go down - $20-25 per disk is a bit too much for me....

I always find this quote humorous seeing as most new SD DVD releases are about the same price for about the first 6 months they are out (except for the 1st week sale of course) and they seem to sell just fine.

I do think that non-combos should ALL be 19.99 and combos should be 24.99. It would just make sense. I know its up to the releasing studio, but maybe HD DVD should make such a request.
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post #18 of 44
5/27/07 at 11:34pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deja Vu View Post

Lots of talk around here about all the HD DVD player sales with Toshiba's promotions. Is this enough to see some increases in HD DVD disc sales? What do you think and why?

Cheers,

Grant

Going by the attach rate of HD DVD owners, I would say tremendously!
Studies show that HD DVD owners buy a lot of movies, put 2 & 2 together...HD DVD wins.
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post #19 of 44
5/27/07 at 11:41pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by rickyricardo View Post

Are you serious? Who's going to buy a new player and not get any movies for it? Simple logic would say, for example, if there were only half the amount of players sold then there is now, there would only be approximately half the amount of discs sold.


the guy asked a stupid question so i gave him a stupid answer.
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post #20 of 44
5/28/07 at 12:22am
Unlike the PS3, HD-DVD owners buy standalones to WATCH MOVIES! So an increase in hardware will most CERTAINLY lead to an inrease in movie sales. For sure. Whether its the same ratio as before, who knows......
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post #21 of 44
5/28/07 at 12:47am
To me, the question is... after buying the movie that they bought the player for, what is left???

So let's says, because of the current price reducts, somebody jumps on board to get the Matrix Trilogy, what is left for them to say I WANT THAT!!!

Chances are, whomever is buying the player, may already have the SD of whatever is already out, so they're not double dipping. So that leaves future releases.

300!!!!
Heroes (box set, so it atleast it goes for more money to Universal)
Grindhouse (maybe)

I love HD-DVD, and am willing to shell out big money on a blind buy of Children of Men, Smokin Aces, Alpha Dog etc, but will the guy that just paid $300 for a player do it???

The obvious answer to the OP's question is yes, but it all boils down to how good/important Home Theater is to the purchaser!

I watched The Matrix Trilogy tonight, and I must say, the most impressive part of the entire experience was the SQ. Now, how many people have a sub/room powerful enough to make the experience good enough to say "I'm fully on board and willing to buy this/that/all"?

That is the whole quandary in a nutshell!! Home Theater is a niche market now, but we may not be far away from entering the general populous. How long that takes has a major influence on the "war". Now, if people would quit liking the likes of AI, we would be GOLD!!!!!!!
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post #22 of 44
5/28/07 at 1:28am
Quote:
Originally Posted by gooki View Post

With Batman Begins on HDDVD moving back up in the slaes rankings is a good indication the new HDDVD player owners are buying movies.

This post should have ended this thread.

Oh and at some people who are trying to imply that more HDDVD players on homes is a...bad thing for HDDVD!!!
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post #23 of 44
5/28/07 at 1:32am
Quote:
Originally Posted by alpha21 View Post

To me, the question is... after buying the movie that they bought the player for, what is left???

So let's says, because of the current price reducts, somebody jumps on board to get the Matrix Trilogy, what is left for them to say I WANT THAT!!!

Chances are, whomever is buying the player, may already have the SD of whatever is already out, so they're not double dipping. So that leaves future releases.

300!!!!
Heroes (box set, so it atleast it goes for more money to Universal)
Grindhouse (maybe)

I love HD-DVD, and am willing to shell out big money on a blind buy of Children of Men, Smokin Aces, Alpha Dog etc, but will the guy that just paid $300 for a player do it???

The obvious answer to the OP's question is yes, but it all boils down to how good/important Home Theater is to the purchaser!

I watched The Matrix Trilogy tonight, and I must say, the most impressive part of the entire experience was the SQ. Now, how many people have a sub/room powerful enough to make the experience good enough to say "I'm fully on board and willing to buy this/that/all"?

That is the whole quandary in a nutshell!! Home Theater is a niche market now, but we may not be far away from entering the general populous. How long that takes has a major influence on the "war". Now, if people would quit liking the likes of AI, we would be GOLD!!!!!!!

Why wouldn't someone want to buy movies like Host,Shooter,Zodiac and more??

If you are saying that huge blockbusters(and new ones at that not catalogue releases) are the only thing that people are buying then the DVD(not just high-def) market would be dead.
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post #24 of 44
5/28/07 at 1:49am
Quote:
Originally Posted by fulcizombie View Post

Why wouldn't someone want to buy movies like Host,Shooter,Zodiac and more??

If you are saying that huge blockbusters(and new ones at that not catalogue releases) are the only thing that people are buying then the DVD(not just high-def) market would be dead.

I just named the big ones (the for SURES). I haven't seen Zodiac, but I'm a GIGANTIC David Fincher fan and will blind buy the hell out of it!!!! Will the general public?? Not sure

I guess my point was, will the general public shell out $30 for a blind buy, enough for it to translate to "more disc sales" (which I believe the OP meant, significantly? I think some of my other points were semi valid)
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post #25 of 44
5/28/07 at 3:24am
I'm even looking forward to the classics--Cat People and Streets of Fire.
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post #26 of 44
5/28/07 at 6:37am
Quote:
Originally Posted by youknowryan View Post

the guy asked a stupid question so i gave him a stupid answer.

I guess my sarcasm detector was a little off yesterday
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post #27 of 44
5/28/07 at 10:48am
Quote:
Originally Posted by gooki View Post

With Batman Begins on HDDVD moving back up in the slaes rankings is a good indication the new HDDVD player owners are buying movies.

Doesn't look like BB has moved up all that much over the last month and a half to me, without other reasons. I don't feel like creating an account to post the picture right now, but people can go to:

http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/histo...TYPE=10&SPAN=0

pick the movie comparison, pick "Batman Begins", pick 90 days, and update the graph. Right now that shows the start of the graph an February 27th at #400. The rise back to about #400 on May 22nd makes sense to me based on people ordering things together and all the new releases that day. The April 15th rise makes sense from the buy day that HD DVD people around here did. Today is another organized buy day and BB is at #626 as I type this. The average over the last 90 days looks like it is around #700 to #750 to me and maybe #650 over the last 45 days. And yesterday (before the buy day) it started around #750 and moved up some during the day.

I expect the price drop on the HD-A2 to increase sales for BB, but so far I just don't see this good indication from the BB rankings. Looks like most of the same for BB that we've seen much of the year.

--Darin
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post #28 of 44
5/28/07 at 11:14am
Quote:
Originally Posted by gooki View Post

With Batman Begins on HDDVD moving back up in the slaes rankings is a good indication the new HDDVD player owners are buying movies.

Check on Serenity.
That one is going up also.
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post #29 of 44
5/28/07 at 11:27am
Quote:
Originally Posted by divianb View Post

Check on Serenity.
That one is going up also.

Today is one of those manipulate the rankings days that both formats do sometimes. I looked at the 90 day graph for Serenity and I see that yesterday its average was a little lower (around #2000) that its average over the last 90 days (looks like around #1700 to me) and its average over the last 45 days (around #1500). Of course it has moved up on one of the buy days and is now a little under #1000. We can watch it after the buy day effect wears off and see if it maintains a higher ranking that its average over the past.

--Darin
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post #30 of 44
5/28/07 at 11:41am
Thread Starter 
Maybe my question was stupid; however, the PS3 has sold lots of units if you look at it as a BD player, but there are several reasons why the attach rate for it is rather low. As someone said if people are buying the Toshiba players as a second or third player or an unconverting player then higher player sales may not translate into higher disc sales. Hopefully for HD DVD most of the sales are going to "new" owners who have a thirst to own HD DVDs. Toshiba now needs to persuade the supporting studios to drop disc prices and then we can see if the format can take off.

Cheers,

Grant
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