I don't know....I'm in the demographic for this stuff. I still won't spend $499 to watch BD, and honestly wouldn't have spent even $299 to watch HD DVD because I care far more about the audio side than the video side. I finally went to buy one when it was $249 at Costco.
Price is still key. Toshiba will drop the price to $199 within a short period of time to counter this if they are smart. $300 is a big jump.
People will walk into BB, see a Blu movie and go looking for a player. Unless they drop the price along with rentals then I don't know how much good it will do them.
I've personally had excellent luck with Netflix and HD-DVD. The part I am still most disappointed about is the jumbled mess the audio side is in.
Out of the 8 HD DVD's I've rented, 3 of them have been in TrueHD.
If Sony were the first to the sub 300 price point I'd have a BD player. PS3 is useless to me because of the lack of high quality audio out.
We'll see how it fleshes out in the next 3 weeks...thats how long I have to return my D2 to Costco
My wife and I also despise our local BB...and if BB is truly trying to push their online ordering and will still carry HD DVD then in the end it may not be that big of a deal because no matter what people are going to see that $499 price tag.