Blockbuster Blu-ray announcement: Master Thread - Page 13

The mythical Chinese players that will solve all of HD-DVD woes ... When rumors about these players started, the magical price point that was supposed to trigger mass market adoption was $199. Well, HD-DVD players have been selling for $249 with 5 free movies, and the only changes we've seen so far are 1) a 40% cut in Toshiba's sales forecasts, and 2) Blockbuster picks Blu-Ray. So now the magical price point is $149? Red herring indeed.

I've posted the following in another thread, but since that thread was closed and the HD-DVD camp still can't face the facts, I'll post it here again.

Let's recapitulate the response of the HD-DVD fanboys to the news since the beginning of the year:

- Fact 1: Thanks to PS3, the installed base of Blu-Ray players is already in the millions

HD-DVD Fanboy Response: Doesn't matter because attach rates are much lower than for HD-DVD players.

- Fact 2: In recent weeks, Blu-Ray has outsold HD-DVD roughly 2:1

HD-DVD Fanboy Response: Doesn't matter; only attach rates matter.

- Fact 3: Despite offering a $100 discount and 5 free movies with its players, Toshiba has to lower its forecast for shipments of HD-DVD players from 1.8M to 1M

HD-DVD Fanboy Response: Doesn't matter; 1M is plenty, and stand-alone HD-DVD players sell faster than stand-alone Blu-Ray players (remember: PS3 doesn't matter--see 1 and 2). HD-DVD players are "flying off the shelves at my local [insert store name here]".

- Fact 4: Blockbuster favors Blu-Ray because 70% of HD rentals are Blu-Ray

HD-DVD Response: Doesn't matter; Blockbuster is not what it used to be and its stock price is going down.

Guys, get real. Stop countering facts with rumors, speculation, fantasy and denial. Show us some numbers.

100% correct on this one. Blockbuster is where j6p or "the common family" goes to rent movies. It is not as much fun to rent online as compared to walking around a video rental store. Believe me this is a huge deal once the Sony marketing team and Blockbuster start advertising Blu-Ray rentals in their stores and move to replace SD-DVD within the next three years. I'm figuring three years since by then we will have enough Blu-Ray titles to fill up a few rows at least depending on how the movies are stacked.

The big Kicker is since Blu-Ray movies are so good at being scratch resistant, after a Blu-Ray movie has been rented so many times and placed in the "bargain bin", I'd feel a lot safer buying one for $10 bucks used than I did with the "buy 2 get one free" specials they always have.

I see this as the biggest announcement yet in favor of one format. Of course it is cost prohibitive for rental stores to carry both formats so this is a good business move. I own both and think both formats work well, but believe the market can only thrive if only one of the two exist and the facts should point everyone in the direction of Blu-ray. Good move Blockbuster and I hope other retail and rental companies follow suit. Any Universal stockholder should want to know why Universal is dragging the lunacy of two formats out with their exclusive support of HD DVD which can't be rented in most Blockbuster outlets.

Chirs

That sounds strange considering that PS3 has the fattest pipe for audio among these players. (HDMI 1.3)

You will be getting excuses up until the very last day from HD-DVD insiders and from all the fanboys who have yet to go dual-format and buy a PS3 or a Blu-Ray standalone.

Us Blu Ray proponets have always known the HD DVD's game plan was fatally flawed. It is nice to see evidence, easier for HD DVD folks to understand, that Blu Ray's strategy, in avoiding cheap players, was the winning way all along. I look forward to dumping Netflix..

Eh, couldn't disagree more - too many folks here concerned with bragging rights methinks - yes, all I need to do is wait on an affordable BR player and continue buying disc media to enjoy at home and I'll be just fine (kinda like people still enjoying DVD these days with no shame), but I promise you I'll still be watching the HD-DVD movies I have on my player many years from now right along side my someday BR player, and believe me, even if the exclusive HD-DVDs get re-released on BR someday, probably years from now, my copies will still look every bit as good as those (I think thats one that bothers some)...oh, and I got my player at a fraction of the cost of BR, another reason its hardly a flush...now had/if BR lost, well, THAT would be a greater wa$te...and like I said, there is still nothing that just showed up on shelves that has me wanting to run out today and plunk down money for BR, sorry.

I am format neutral but I will say that this round was one by Blu-Ray. I wonder what deal Sony made with B.B. to get this exclusive deal. It will be interesting to see how the HD group reacts. If I was a top exec of the HD group I go after Walmart immediately with some special deal to get them to go exclusive to conteract this winning round. The next few weeks could be very interesting. I am sure the HD group knew this was coming and it will be interesting to see if they have any response.

Just heard some TV commentary on Bloomberg, stating effectively that with sales of Blu-ray disks outstripping HD DVD by a significant margin, it might have an impact on Toshiba (the backer of HD DVD).

I applaud Blockbuster for taking a stand. If more retailers followed their lead, this war would be over in months.

Very sad news. I guess we will all have to have a SONY decal affixed to our foreheads...

Some corrections:

It is 1700 stores NOT 1450

BB owns over 76% of the rental market

The average adult male spends $1200 a year on CE and those with kids and teens spend as much as $500 higher than that

Netflix has stated that HDD is 1% of their business. Guess what the other 99% is?

The MSRP of the HD A2 as of 6/18/07 at 8:00 AM is once again $399. This is only $100 less than the new S300 which streets today.

6/20/07 is the 1 year anniversary of BD - think they will do nothing to celebrate?

Joe Public does go to BB to rent movies. And as pointed out, as he wanders the store - all he is going to see is BD titles - 170 of them. JP is a very simple thinker. If he knows that there are 2 formats, but BB is only carrying BD - as stated - this is a loud and clear message to JP.

And guess what - 1700 locations in the USA will now carry BD for sale as well. There may be a lot fewer choices than are for rental - but they will be there.

DVD is shifting from a buy it format to a rent it format. Sales are flat for the lat 2 years and up a little in 2004. Rentals are up 32% and climbing

So if you are in the rental business - guess what? Your market is growing 10 to 15% a year while if you are in the sales market - you sold as much as you did last year.

And the biggest rental company in the world just decided to add BD to 1700 of it's stores in the USA.

But it all gets dumbed down to a low res 5.1 format.

It is about price. Its not a matter of affordability either. For the money that both formats were charging for their initial investment I expecting a solid product, neither of those delivered a SOLID product out of the gate.

Initial Blu tites look horrible and HD-DVD hasn't had a high adoption rate of their high quality audio format.

For $249 I took a risk, but not for $500.

I have invested over 1K to listen to DVD-Audio and SACD so its not about cost but it does goto show something. DVD-A and SACD failed due to cost/complexity. Blu will not take over huge market share until they get the price for a consumer piece down.

PS3 is not a quality player because of its lack of high quality audio support. Now if they fixed that then I'd think about buying one around $500 because of its dual purpose.

No one cares enough about audio to spend the money on it and I doubt many care enough about video quality to spend $500 on a BD player, but might at $249.

Toshiba's prices went back up. I like my HD-DVD player but without more high quality audio discs I would never pay over $249.

If BD had 100 percent high quality audio discs with lossless compression, say even 80 percent of new titles then I'd be more akin to spend the money, but not one something that doesn't fit what I'd expect at that price point.

I see the BB news on Yahoo as well, and the headline is pretty strong.

This is a very well thought out post that is not biased towards Blu-Ray. It is simply stating facts as well as sound marketing decisions by the largest rental company in the US.

Just looked at tvpredictions.com and it's funny: from Are We Headed for Stalemate? to Blu-ray vs. HD DVD: Roll the Credits in 24 hours. (Yeah, I know it's actually by two different writers but it's funny nonetheless).

I wonder if I will be able to use my Panny rebate card on those BRD rentals. I think I still have 20 or so free rentals left until the end of the year. Now that would be nice.

I think it is a testament to how volatile and divided the war has become.

This is a substantial victory by the BDA. No doubt about it. However, it is to be seen what impact Blockbuster makes by this decision and if it was a prudent one for them.

After all Blockbuster is struggling financially...losing money and if this helps them in the short run (as someone said, HD media makes up for 1% of the market) then why not go for it. It'll be interesting to see how many rows of BD disks we end up with in the 1,700 stores. I guess there will be 1,450 more B&M stores stocking some selection of BD disks v. HD DVD.

NetFlix is not next. Even BB is still renting HD DVDs online.

Look at the picture closely, it says "DVD" and not "Blu-ray".

Are you getting paid by Microsoft to conduct damage control for them?

BlockBuster owns over 76% of the rental market, and they are not losing money this year as you put it. They are gaining back some ground they lost to Netflix and have a HUGE advantage towards them if they offer the same basic "rental model" as Netflix offers while offering the convenience of also being able to return the movies in-store and instantly pick out new movie's to take home..

The average family does go to BB to rent movies. Seeing only one format on the wall is going to make a huge impact on them when looking for which format to buy into.

Netflix only caters to the crowd that has already bought into HD-DVD or Blu-Ray. Blockbuster will cater to those who haven't bought into any format yet and simply ask the question to the BB workers "What are those Blue discs?" as their curiosity peaks... This is a HUGE and I mean HUGE blow to HD-DVD and there is no type of spin Plazman you can put on it to change it from that reality... 1,700 stores buying 30-50 Blu-Ray titles of each new title for rental is quite a lot...

The title of this thread is misleading. BB for now is not expanding HD DVD to their 'other' 1,450 B&M stores. But their current 250 and online will have them. I am guessing they got a deal from the BDA - good for them!

The way I see it, the HD market is small enough that for a small payment losing less than half of 1% of your market (which would be HD DVD) isn't going to be a big deal. The BDA has spent a lot more money on product placement and such compared to Tosh. For instance, I won't be surprised if the BD end units at BB are costing more than the Tosh $100 off rebate....

Plus this week Best Buy has a $400+$200 off PS3 bundle when you buy a Sony TV that is $500 off MSRP in the first place...so BDA is finally pricing very aggressively and IMHO is the final push to end this format war quickly. I am guessing Disney and other studios are complaining to Sony about the slow adoption and so a lot of money is being thrown around now. Blockbuster was at the right place at the right time to make a little dough on the side Why not!!

Terrible news for HD DVD. I would start boycotting Blockbuster, but I literally have not been in one for over 5 years. As a Netflix member since 1999, they will continue to get my money and my HD DVD rentals.

*sigh*

I believe there are hundreds of Best Buy stores with ONLY BD players running on end units, and yet they end up selling more HD DVD players.....I can see Blockbuster for now trying to cater to the PS3 crowd. They will rent games and movies as well. However, Blockbuster did not create the DVD market, the market was created inspite of them. AFAIK!

No MSFT does not pay me for anything. I just like to point out the reality. Having 1,450 stores rent BD and not HD DVD is good for BD. Absolutely. But 250 Blockbuster stores will STILL have HD DVD and they will still have them online. What % of the business does the 250 stores that do have HD DVD do v the ones that do not! I have no idea. But the fact is that Blockbuster is expanding BD, but not dropping HD DVD.

Again, overall this is good for BD, bad for HD DVD and probably good in the short term for Blockbuster...but IMO bad in the long run for Blockbuster and the long term impact on the format war is TBD.

Yeah, you really don't know what's going on in the gaming world right now. As for your last statement, those are words you don't want to mark. You see, for that to happen, the PS3 has to actually outsell the Xbox 360 at some point. So far, it's been doubled up (see, some of us do pay attention to numbers that matter).

Good luck with that prediction though.



You mean like Laserdisc? I realise there is a lot of sword waving and pistols firing in the air in this thread now by the Blu-ray faithful, but I bought into another format that was sort of......just like this. Offered better video and sound quality, expensive players, expensive media. And I heard all the same things about price coming down and so on. Years later I have 2 large boxes of laserdiscs and a player I haven't hooked up in that long sitting in my basement storage. And it's only sitting there because I haven't called Goodwill to pick them up.

LOL, neither have I! I gave up on them in 2003 when I realized Hollywood Video had all the new and old DVD releases I wanted while the local BB's were still half VHS and half catalogue DVD's from the 1990's (with a few new titles on shelves that were always out).


I think I might be joining you soon. I'm not an HD-DVD renter (more of a buyer of select few titles) but this bad news might just make me one to show my support for the little format that could... until now??!!

Check this out...

http://biz.yahoo.com/seekingalpha/07...8_id.html?.v=1

Expected to lose money:

Annual EPS Est (Dec-07) : -0.43
Quarterly EPS Est (Jun-07) : -0.27
Mean Recommendation*: 2.8
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected): N/A


Compare to Netflix:

Annual EPS Est (Dec-07) : 0.76
Quarterly EPS Est (Jun-07) : 0.23
Mean Recommendation*: 2.9
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected): 1.09

As a HD DVD owner, I am not happy about this news. This type of stuff can make a difference in the war. I'm hoping this does not start a chain reaction with the other stores. I don't think it will, cause the price point of the BR is still way off. I think that will be the only thing to slow the BR machine down.

You sir, are mistaken. It decodes True-HD, and outputs it via HDMI as LPCM. It just outputs LPCM. I think you meant to say "The XBOX360 does not have high quality audio".