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Laugher Ahead: BD wins war says ZDNet

post #1 of 72
Thread Starter 
http://blogs.zdnet.com/storage/?p=149

Quote:


Blu-ray won

The sturm und drang over the Blu-ray vs HD DVD battle has come to naught. After a bit of jostling Blu-ray has taken an unassailable lead over HD DVD. Blockbuster's Matthew Smith, SVP of merchandising, says The consumers are sending us a message. I can't ignore what I'm seeing. This is what he's seen:

Blockbuster has been renting both Blu-ray and HD DVD titles in 250 stores since late last year and found that consumers were choosing Blu-ray titles more than 70 percent of the time.

Ghost of Betamax laid to rest

Sony has played this game well. They own a movie studio, and got all but one of the major studios to release on Blu-ray. They put a Blu-ray player in every PS3. And they benefit by the rapid growth of HDTV sales.

Despite the disappointing sales of the PS3, the fact that it includes a Blu-ray player also tilted the playing field. A leading indicator: Toshiba recently reduced its US sales goal for HD DVD players by 40%. The rapid uptake of HDTV in the US completes the content-player-display triumvirate.

It is safe to buy that Blu-ray disk player now

The biggest loser in this is Toshiba. They've put a lot of time and money behind HD DVD. Microsoft is also a loser, partly as a supporter and partly because their add-on Xbox HD DVD player sales will tank. The folks who bought one can't be feeling too good about Microsoft's judgement.

Intel, another backer, loses too, but they seem to have had the least skin in the game. They probably just went along because of Microsoft.

The Storage Bits take

It is all over but the shouting. Expect to see some closeout sales on HD DVD players and burners, but I wouldn't buy one. Now that the market has shifted you can expect to see Blu-ray burner prices drop faster. I expect that Apple will be adding on on their next gen Mac Pro, and after that, the MacBook Pro.

In time this may also boost Firewire, which is substantially faster than USB. In fact, USB 2.0 probably can't handle 18x DVD writers at full speed, and 20x DVD writers are starting to make it to market. Once Blu-ray writers get up to 6x speed, Firewire will be the way to go.

The biggest winners though, are us, the consumers. 50 GB optical storage is good for all digital junkies. Now that we don't have to worry about the format war, we can get back to rip, mix, burn!
post #2 of 72
Well if someone cant even come up with their own unique url then I wont even trust their judgment on anything. cough cnet cough
post #3 of 72
Quote:


Now that we don't have to worry about the format war, we can get back to rip, mix, burn!

I'm sure that'll come as great news for Fox!
post #4 of 72
Ridiculous. Because Blockbuster says they rent more Blur-ray, HD-DVD is a losing format? Sounds like head-stuck-in-the-ground syndrome to me.

Ridiculous.

Mark
post #5 of 72
Blockbuster was biased from the beginning in my opinion. The blockbuster near me which rents out both formats has a terrible selection of movies that are available from the HD library. The good ones were always checked out...

I think Hollywood Video is superior to Blockbuster anyways.
post #6 of 72
I am not laughing. The future is looking more and more Blu.
post #7 of 72
Yeah but this is the typical news by many outlets.

I mean, I could see if it was just sony saying, but when just about every major retailer or online technical authority says HD DVD is dead, people start to believe it.

I mean, why shouldnt they. If the entire world says HD DVD is dead, except toshiba and HD DVD owners, would everyone here finally accept it? Or still claim a war is going on.

I dont know if you noticed, the HD DVD forum hasnt been fighting back at all. Its starting to look like tosh is dropping the prices drastically to get the last few suckers to buy em up.

I dont think HD DVD can ever sell 80k units a month min like the ps3. Maybe it is time to accept reality. I dunno.

I think the early adoption phase is beginning to end, and while J6P is no where near ready to jump in, a fair amount of mid range consumers will be happy to see this end, and finally jump in.

This good news, especially if it means finally moving on.
post #8 of 72
Blockbuster only renting BR at B&M means absolutely nothing at this time. There are still people buying into HD DVD daily. One example of this is a friend of mine at work. He called me today asking about both formats. I told him about the Blockbuster deal and other advantages/disadvantages of each format. When I told him the entry price for each format, he was HD DVD all the way. What most people are forgetting is someone that is interested in HD, $300 for a player is a drop in the bucket. He really flipped his wig when I told him about the free HD DVD offer with the purchase of a player. His exact comments were, "All those free HD DVDs equal to what it would cost me to get only a BR player."

With more people having the logic mentioned above, sooner than later, Blockbuster will change their mind about being BR exclusive in the stores.
post #9 of 72
toshiba has a 30-40% market share with hd dvd and barely a year on the market, and blockbuster is ready to just ignore that percentage of renters? the previous game console generation(in north america) saw the ps2 with at least 50%, xbox with roughly 30, and gamecube with 20%. Those are not perfectly accurate numbers. my point is that it didn't keep blockbuster from carrying games for every one of those consoles, despite the percentages.

it doesn't seem to make good business sense to ignore 30% of a marketplace, but maybe there is another long term reason. my theory is that blockbuster is hoping to help decide a winner. a single format is in their best business interest, as well as other rental/retail outlets. the two formats are causing hesitation in consumers minds, and stifling growth. they've left the door open for hd dvd if market share shifts. but really, what would it take? 50/50? 40/60? what is wrong with 70/30?

i have thought all along that the two formats would co-exist, which is why i have both. i saw dual format players becoming the standard, and it not mattering which case you bought-the red or the blue. it would have created a better product because of competition. we would have never seen prices this low so soon if it weren't for competition.

this is the first time i'm doubting it. it all smells like we're being herded into blu-ray.
post #10 of 72
Its time for the HD DVD forum to do damage control. You have the blockbuster announcement, the ZD blog, and the panasonic announcement, all in 2 -3 days.

Where is the HD DVD forum? Why arent they trying to salvage the masses canceling their orders?

Lets not for the gizmodo announcement too...

http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/hd-dvd-on...les-270313.php

I smell trouble in the red land... WHy no word from the HD DVD group?
post #11 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by MadPerry View Post

the previous game console generation(in north america) saw the ps2 with at least 50%, xbox with roughly 30, and gamecube with 20%. Those are not perfectly accurate numbers. my point is that it didn't keep blockbuster from carrying games for every one of those consoles, despite the percentages.

It was more like 75% PS2, 20% Xbox, 5% GC, but your point still stands.
post #12 of 72
Toshiba and Microsoft are the losers? They are not 2 billion dollars in the hole nor are they "downsizing" their plants with hundreds of layoffs.

I can't help but think that Sony paid off Blockbuster to ignore HD-DVD to a certain extent.

If Blockbuster truly feels that way then perhaps they should limit PS3 games for rental and anounce that the PS3 console is dead too since Xbox and the WII are kicking Sony's butt.
post #13 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by apodaca View Post

I am not laughing. The future is looking more and more Blu.


This certainly seems to be the case. I really feel the HD DVD is in serious trouble. Not over yet, though.
post #14 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blumoon View Post

Its time for the HD DVD forum to do damage control. You have the blockbuster announcement, the ZD blog, and the panasonic announcement, all in 2 -3 days.

Where is the HD DVD forum? Why arent they trying to salvage the masses canceling their orders?

Lets not for the gizmodo announcement too...

http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/hd-dvd-on...les-270313.php

I smell trouble in the red land... WHy no word from the HD DVD group?

Good point, they need to work harder on public perception and right now stuff like this is going to make people think that you shouldn't buy an HD-DVD player then you totally lost out.

Still, I wish the BB deal would stop being twisted as an end to the format war. The end of the format war is when no more studios are exclusive to HD-DVD. Sales matter more than rentals and I'm pretty sure studios realize that.
post #15 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blumoon View Post

Its time for the HD DVD forum to do damage control. You have the blockbuster announcement, the ZD blog, and the panasonic announcement, all in 2 -3 days.

Where is the HD DVD forum? Why arent they trying to salvage the masses canceling their orders?

Lets not for the gizmodo announcement too...

http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/hd-dvd-on...les-270313.php

I smell trouble in the red land... Why no word from the HD DVD group?

So just wondering, is this the ninth anouncment from the Bluray group that HD-DVD is dead or the tenth one? Didn't Panasonic already make this anouncement months ago?
Wow the Bluray players are STILL being outsold by HD-DVD players on Amazon.com but hey, if Sony or Sony reps say the war is over it must be over becuase they wouldn't ever lie to us nor have they ever lied.

I would write more but I'm going to go watch my Matrix trilogy HD-DVDs that don't exist because the wars over. Speaking of, how are the Bluray versions looking these days and does anyone know where and when I can exchange my Bluray copy of FIfth Element for one that actually IS in HD this time?
post #16 of 72
_DIR Stock Price Information TOSHIBA CORPORATION (TSE) 21/Jun/2007

Last 992
Previous Close 982
Open 978
High 993
Low 976
Change +10
Percent Change +1.02%
Currency YEN
Volume 11,043,000
Chart


I think they will live atleast for another day....GET REAL...BLOCKFUSTER?...I dont even rent nor buy from those idiots and I support HDDVD.
post #17 of 72
Again? I thought we lost last week.
post #18 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Z07VETTE View Post

So just wondering, is this the ninth anouncment from the Bluray group that HD-DVD is dead or the tenth one? Didn't Panasonic already make this anouncement months ago?
Wow the Bluray players are STILL being outsold by HD-DVD players on Amazon.com but hey, if Sony or Sony reps say the war is over it must be over becuase they wouldn't ever lie to us nor have they ever lied.

I would write more but I'm going to go watch my Matrix trilogy HD-DVDs that don't exist because the wars over. Speaking of, how are the Bluray versions looking these days and does anyone know where and when I can exchange my Bluray copy of FIfth Element for one that actually IS in HD this time?

Dont get your panties in a wad over your preferred format getting slaughtered in the media this week.

Not one of those announcements came from a sony rep except panasonic.

Enjoy matrix... Its been watched a 1000 times over already. Enjoy it tonight, tommorow, and all this weekend, and the weekend after that, and the weekend after that, etc etc. When mine came in, I did a weekend fest with some friends, but thats over now. I cant watch it every night like you.

Fifth element was SD on BD disk? I think your grasping at straws, its pathetic.

But anyways, maybe the HD DVD forum is seeing it as your are, and doesnt care about public opinion. I mean hey, whats that after all?
post #19 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blumoon View Post

Yeah but this is the typical news by many outlets.

I mean, I could see if it was just sony saying, but when just about every major retailer or online technical authority says HD DVD is dead, people start to believe it.

I mean, why shouldnt they. If the entire world says HD DVD is dead, except toshiba and HD DVD owners, would everyone here finally accept it? Or still claim a war is going on.

I dont know if you noticed, the HD DVD forum hasnt been fighting back at all. Its starting to look like tosh is dropping the prices drastically to get the last few suckers to buy em up.

I dont think HD DVD can ever sell 80k units a month min like the ps3. Maybe it is time to accept reality. I dunno.

I think the early adoption phase is beginning to end, and while J6P is no where near ready to jump in, a fair amount of mid range consumers will be happy to see this end, and finally jump in.

This good news, especially if it means finally moving on.


Toshiba doesn't have to sell 80k units a month. They merely have to sell enough units to close the roughly 20% gap in movie sales. That doesn't translate anywhere near to 80k units a month. Having said that, Toshiba had to know it would be playing catch up when the PS3 was released. If they didn't then they didn't adequately count the cost. Instead of the HD DVD forum taking the leadership they stuck their collective heads in the sand for over 3 months. HD DVD has never recovered from that lapse in planning and judgment. And look how long it's taken to implement the 51 gb disk? By the time the war is winding down they'll announce its availability. To little to late.

So while you have the right idea with 80k units they only must sell consistently to meet or surpass the attach rate for PS3 combined with the Blu Ray standalones. I'd suggest that translates to approx 20k units a month for the next 2 quarters. I don't see that happening at the current price point as good as that price point seems to us. Toshiba themselves suggest they'll have 1 million sold by the end of the year. I don't see that happening at all either.

The software sales difference will now be even wider when BlockBuster starts purchasing those Blu Ray movies to stock its 1,400 or so stores with. And while BB has been assailed, the publicity and the combined movie purchasing by BB is making this an increasingly difficult hill to climb for HD DVD.

What I find laughable is the utter contempt and missed opportunity by Fox/MGM. They could truly put a stake in this if they took advantage of this recent BB announcement to begin releasing numerous movies promised and digging into that catalogue in a big way. Sony must be having fits seeing another missed opportunity to take an irrevocable lead.
post #20 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blumoon View Post

Its time for the HD DVD forum to do damage control. You have the blockbuster announcement, the ZD blog, and the panasonic announcement, all in 2 -3 days.

Where is the HD DVD forum? Why arent they trying to salvage the masses canceling their orders?

Lets not for the gizmodo announcement too...

http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/hd-dvd-on...les-270313.php

I smell trouble in the red land... WHy no word from the HD DVD group?

oooooh, the sky is falling!!!

Give me a break pal. Stop making a mountain out of a molehill.
This is just a ripple, nothing more. Besides BD is the one that should be worried, most of their customers are renters.
post #21 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by HPforMe View Post

Toshiba doesn't have to sell 80k units a month. They merely have to sell enough units to close the roughly 20% gap in movie sales. That doesn't translate anywhere near to 80k units a month.

True. At least at the current pace.
Quote:
Originally Posted by HPforMe View Post

Instead of the HD DVD forum taking the leadership they stuck their collective heads in the sand for over 3 months. HD DVD has never recovered from that lapse in planning and judgment.

I'm pretty sure I read at least one HD DVD supporter saying that the slowdown in Q1 made sense because it was normally a slow time of the year. But this is a war and I agree with what you said, tough to recover from that. The stuff from Ken Graffeo just looks somewhat ridiculous to me when he is claiming that Blockbuster didn't make a good choice because it was a slow period for releases from HD DVD, when it looks like he helped make that choice (or at least stood by and let it happen). He should have known there could be consequences. I don't see it as Blockbuster's fault that they had a slowdown and even after that they haven't really recovered and the movies at the theaters aren't making it look to me like Q4 is going to have better releases in Q4 on HD DVD than Blu-ray like Ken Graffeo claimed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by HPforMe View Post

So while you have the right idea with 80k units they only must sell consistently to meet or surpass the attach rate for PS3 combined with the Blu Ray standalones. I'd suggest that translates to approx 20k units a month for the next 2 quarters.

I might agree for 1 quarter, but I don't expect Sony to let sales stay at 80k per month for the PS3 for Q4. And it does look like they have some better stuff coming for the PS3, besides the normal pickup in sales in Q4. If the effective rate for the PS3 is 20% and so Blu-ray has about 400k effective players vs 300k HD DVD players total (seem like about the best numbers from things I've read), then there is a 100k gap to make up just to get even, not counting new Blu-ray sales. If Blu-ray sales were 80k PS3s and 10k standalones per month then HD DVD would have to sell about 178k players in 3 months to be even (using the 20% effective rate for the PS3). That is close to 60k per month to make up the shortfall in that timeframe with those numbers.

And then there are the PAL regions where standalones player sales seem to be very low while I saw something that said consumers in PAL regions had bought 1 million PS3s. At 10% that would be 100k effective players and 200k at 20%. And then there is Japan. While winning in the US would be great, these other regions matter and can help tip things somewhat in the US.

All that given, I don't expect Toshiba to just roll over. Now we'll get to see how serious they are about trying to win this thing.

--Darin
post #22 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blumoon View Post

Dont get your panties in a wad over your preferred format getting slaughtered in the media this week.

Hardly a slaughter I would say

Quote:


Fifth element was SD on BD disk? I think your grasping at straws, its pathetic.

Yes it was pathetic and yes it was WORSE than DVD and thats why they are "remastering" it and offering an exchange program.
Quote:



But anyways, maybe the HD DVD forum is seeing it as your are, and doesnt care about public opinion. I mean hey, whats that after all?

ROTFLMAO!!! Are you going to tell me Sony just put there product out there and figured "let the best man win"? OMG!! How many times has Sony and their partners annonced Bluray has won? They try and try and try again to brainwash the mases into thinking that HD-DVD is dead so they can sell them THEIR product.
post #23 of 72
Either way press like this just doesn't sit well for HD-DVD. While deff. a blow it is disturbing to see so many publications be so subjective in their reporting. A real shame.
post #24 of 72
What I find interesting is that despite the Blockbuster announcement, and the announcement of BD+ ready for implementation, MGM has still not announced any more Blu-Ray movies... which is interesting considering Sony owns a small piece of MGM.
post #25 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by dad1153 View Post

http://blogs.zdnet.com/storage/?p=149

I am pretty sure my contribution to showing off high def movies in my picture thread influenced a lot of people. Over 40,000 hits man.... 40,000 just my thread alone.

I didn't buy Blu-Ray player and movies so I can help win the format war, but SIMPLY because the Blu-Ray had the availability for my needs. When I wanted it, it was there. HD-DVD Drives weren't available. So I had no choice.

Trust me... if the HD-DVD drive was what's available to me back then I would've kept showing off with the HD-DVD stuff..



... but I can't just pass up on the 50GB storage. That's a lot of space, man. LOL
post #26 of 72
Would someone please explain to me the part about Firewire being much faster than USB 2.0?

Thanks !
post #27 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by musicelect View Post

Ridiculous. Because Blockbuster says they rent more Blur-ray, HD-DVD is a losing format? Sounds like head-stuck-in-the-ground syndrome to me.

Ridiculous.

Mark

A someone pointed out to me earlier, those numbers are a rough reflectiopn of the title buying stats over the same time period. Also, it's been pointed out that BD is much better represented than HD DVD at participating Blockbusters -- including with newer releases.
post #28 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrevorS View Post

Would someone please explain to me the part about Firewire being much faster than USB 2.0?

Thanks !

Firewire has speed upto 800 Mbps data transfer rate. It is designed for high data output.

USB is ghey.... I think it has upto around 400 Mbps but the actual throughput drops in the continuous transfer. It's been a while I read about it so I forgot some of the wording. But the bottom line is that the use of Firewire is more dependable and has more room for transfer rate.
post #29 of 72
Yet another website/company to add to the HD DVD owners boycott list. It's getting longer and longer...
post #30 of 72
Quote:
Originally Posted by TrevorS View Post

Would someone please explain to me the part about Firewire being much faster than USB 2.0?

It's all a matter of overhead. USB devices are "dumb". It's an interface only, everything that happens across it has to be directly controlled by the device driver. Which, being software, slows things down. Firewire, on the other hand, requires host controllers on both ends of the connection that can talk to each other in hardware. So instead of saying "move block 20. Now move block 21", the operating system can simply say "get me this file" and walk away.

It doesn't take much overhead for 480Mbps to become slower than 400Mbps, and USB has a LOT.
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