Nielsen VideoScan sales ratios & top sellers part 3 - Page 204  

Ok. I am really NOT one for anecdotal store stories, but this one intrigued me because the store up here in Bel Air did the exact same thing. When I asked about it, the sales guy said that was the first time he had seen that.

I still don't take any stock in any of this, because again, I don't believe in anecdotes. That just threw me.

I think that you will contiue to see the effort to discredit this thread as Blu wins the coming weeks.

Are any of the companys that Nielsen uses Blu-ray only. If not, then HD DVD is competeing in a level playing field, are they not?

Excellent post. I absolutely agree.

Such was my experience at bb yesterday after participating in the grand event at Walmart.

Several bb salespeople just laughed as I observed that they were out of A2s. One said, "Up to now we thought BD would win...but not now."

This represents a real shift in focus by the major retailers. Either they try to keep pace with Walmart or they will look pretty silly to the general public. Word of pricing gets around quickly this time of year.

So how much impact this has on the Nelsen figures has a lot to do with BB,CC,Sears, Fry, etc. If they let Walmart continue with hardware and media sales without keeping pace, then some of the media sales will still spill over to them and be counted by Nielsen. If they mount a continuous price matching challenge, then the effect should be seen quickly and more intensely, since more buyers of hardware will make immediate media purchases in those stores and be counted.

That might very well been the case in the past, but the overall volumes were probably very small.

That would make the change and shift to HD DVD sales at Wal-Mart all the more significant.

Past sales throughout the year, the SI and YTD numbers are to an extent a history lesson.

Its the current numbers, the last few weekly and past months ratios that are showing the trends.

Last two weeks the numbers are 51:49 and 55:45.

Last couple months are running about are 60:40 for the Nielsen/Videoscan first alert numbers.

Its the current trends that matter now.

A lot of posts here recently saying "If you don't trust Nielsen, don't post here".

Isn't this AVS?

In any science a theory needs to be proposed, checked, re-checked, ad infinitum.

It would be an absolute travesty of everything AVS has ever stood for if a thread of this size were allowed to continue without the validity of Nielsen being examined.

Nielsen don't track all of the market - unlike what happens with charts in the UK.

40% of US DVD sales are missing from Nielsen.

Wer have no idea what %age of US high def sales are missing.

We know that at least tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of HD DVD players have been sold at Wal-Mart.

We can very safely presume that a sizeable proportion ofd the people who bought these players at Wal-Mart will have also bought HD DVDs at Wal-Mart to play on them.

We know those HD DVDs will not be counted at Nielsen.

Anyone who wants to hide those facts is working against the best interests of everything AVS has ever stood for.

Steve W

Who is trying to discredit this thread?

I think this thread is the best place on the planet to discuss HD DVD and Blu-ray software sales and Nielsen/Videoscan is the best most consistent data set we have.

Even if it does not include the Wal-Mart sales, and is thus incomplete,

Any complete understanding of HDM software sales will consider that fact in the discussion when we can get some Wal-Mart sales data or complete market sales claims to consider.

We have always talked about non Nielsen software sales data here, like the Casino Royale or Transformers press releases. Any specific Wal-Mart sales data would also be just as useful.

I'm not sure that a call for a return to the scientific method should be advocating speculation based on ancedotal evidence. As far as I am aware, we have no numbers for Wal-Mart sales, let alone confirmation that it sold "at least tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of HD DVD players." Nor do we have any suggestion that Wal-Mart's disc sales ratio are that different than the rest of the retailers that are in Nielsen.

What theory people proposing to test? How will the "vailidty" of Nielsen be tested? As I understand it, Nielsen is the most comprehensive and widely-cited measure of disc sales. It does not inlcude some retailers, but the sample size is probably large enough to be fairly robust.

And what "facts" are people trying "hide"?

I have a problem with those just popping in with nothing more to say than "Oh look, more people trying to discredit the thread.", and then having nothing more constructive to add to the discussion.

No one is discrediting the thread. To do that, one would have to argue that the actual Nielsen numbers THEMSELVES are false or wrong. No one is saying that. If you think you can prove that, be my guest.

The arguement is that the numbers paint an incomplete total because of the absence of certain retailers. And what makes this week different from others is that there is a potentially large amount of disc sales made this weekend that will not show up in next weeks release because of said retailer. These are not "be all end all" numbers.

And regardless of that, some people here, like the ones who popped in to jab and leave, will use these numbers as "be all end all" to attack with, despite knowing they represent an incomplete overall total of HDM disc sales this week. Its happening in a thread below right now. And it will undoubtedly happen next week as well.

So you guys can stop with the "Oh oh, you are discrediting the Nielsen thread" responses now.

It has even more signifigance when one of the said retailers is the biggest retailer in the world that being Walmart of course.

The amusing thing is that all roads lead back to Nielsen. I think everyone agrees that hardware sales -- regardless of where they are made -- should lead to disc sales on that format. And those sales will not be exclusively at retailers not covered by Nielsen. So hardware sales should be reflected in Nielsen numbers over time.

Everyone seems to have accepted the fact (I assume it is a fact) that Wal-Mart is not in Nielsen. But then people seem jump to the conclusion that such an exclusion means undercounting for HD-DVD. It seems to me that there is no real basis to make that assumption. Wal-Mart also sells the Sony BDP-S300 and the PS3 and Blu-Ray discs. Even if we assume wild HD-DVD sales of the limited quantity of Toshiba players, there's nothing to suggest that Wal-Mart's numbers are dramatically different than, say, Amazon and Best Buy, which are in Nielsen.

The only way Wal-Mart would significantly impact the Nielsen numbers would be if it sold huge quantities of discs and its Blu-Ray/HD-DVD sales ratio was significantly different than the retailers that are in Nielsen.

Somebody can do the math, but if Wal-Mart has 20% of the HD disc market (something I just made up for purposes of this example) and its sales ratio for software was enormorously better for HD-DVD -- say 40-60 rather than 60-40 -- I think that would still have a less then gigantic impact on the overall Nielsen numbers.

And, on an unrelated note, all I can say about the UM-MSU game is "whew."

There is little doubt that Walmart is a savvy retailer, and based on results, the best. They have just made their name as an HDM retailer by selling cheap razors so they can sell the blades. Now watch Walmart drive down HDM prices to DVD levels. Nothing but good will come of this. (Unless you're a BD fan) I almost feel sorry for BD CEM's, exclusive studios, PS3 owners and BD fans - the free market works.

What? Wal*Mart has long since used DVDs as loss leaders to bring people into the stores to buy other things. Getting HDM prices down to DVD levels means they are losing on the razors and the blades. Actually, they are also selling some HD DVD titles at BOGO prices (~$14.99) as part of this sale. So they are losing on the razors and the blades.

HD DVD fans really want to support Wal*Mart? When you go in to take advantage of this, buy something with an actual margin to it.

Ok, maybe I have missed it. Where is the data showing total disks sold for each title in the entire market? Next week will we be getting accurate numbers for Blu-Ray and HD DVD disks sold at Wal Mart this week?? I am all for having as much accurate data as possible.

Total sales are good. "Show me the money", "Where's the beef". Whoops showed my age with that one.

But all that aside, HD DVD is still competing with Blu-Ray in the Nielsens, are they not?

There isn't. And that is the problem. There is no other way to calculate the other % sold by non Nielsen reporting retailers.

Let me be clear, and speak a little to JAC6's point. While I don't believe for a second that Nielsen's numbers are "be-all-end-all", I understand why they take the tally. Someone has to do it.

But while you could argue that Nielsen numbers could be a snapshot of the overall picture by way of proportions, this is a very bad weekend to make that arguement. Wal-mart had a sale that honestly could have sold a ton of HD DVD discs. I believe whatever that number is, and I don't of course have an inkling or desire to guess, will still be disproportionate to the Nielsen reporting retailers because of the nature of the way those discs were sold. They are going to most likely be attach rate sales to hardware sold.

Theoretically, and I HIGHLY STRESS THEORETICALLY, enough HD DVD movies could have been sold at Wal-Mart on Friday alone to negate the numbers Spider-man 3 sold on Blu-ray. Again, I am NOT saying it did. I'm not saying it didn't. But we will never know. And that makes the Nielsen count incomplete.


You and me both man. The fact that I can still see the exact Wendys commercial in my head is not a good sign of my age either.



Depends on who you ask I think. Honestly, if you asked the HD DVD PRG or Toshiba, they would probably tell you no, they aren't. And since studios seem more inclined to give THEIR numbers than cite Nielsen numbers, and the fact that Paramount switched despite those numbers, I would venture a guess that they would also say no.

I think Nielsen numbers seem to be good for some retailers, analysts, and of course for all our blustery debates here on AVS.

ohh yeah Kosty here we go again with your SPIN,

so last two weeks represent what we can see in future ?
like you will have transformers every week or what ?

I like how you can nicely spin any numbers in HD DVD favor.....

M.

I've seen you repeat this at least 2-3 times just in this thread ... and I'm pretty sure in other threads as well ... where are you getting 500k to 2 million? Most of the reports I've seen are from 45k to 120k units.

WM's loss leader dvd's are principaly new releases just like every retailer's. And this week end's HD DVD sale is a (mini) BF sale, just like everyone else's.

WM in not losing money on any DVD purchase except for special sales which is the norm with all retailers. They all probably make a dollar or more even on the $5.00 bin dvd's (20+% gross margin).

You can be sure that WM has a good margin on the vast majority of their dvd sales...just like every retailer. That is why all these retailers devote so much floor space to DVD's.

fafner

I am not talking about the sale on Friday lasting through this week. I am talking about projected numbers through the end of 2007. If you are active in any of the general discussion threads or hanging around the HD DVD player forums there is a lot of speculation that the news that broke several months ago that Wal-mart ordered 2 million players from China (Fuha Yaun?) is actually Toshiba A2 players that have been stockpiled.

Toshiba hitting their forecast of 1 million players this year would mean they would have to sell at least 700-800K players in November and December. I think Kosty has mentioned that Toshiba may hit 1.8 million players this year several times already (he may be including the add-on).

My personal opinion is that Toshiba will sell well below 1 million players by the end of 2007, but it is anybody's guess.

If you are pro HD DVD, it seems the concensus is that Toshiba will hit (and perhaps surpass) their projected 1 million number. With their higher attah rate, this would be enough for Toshiba to even the software sales score and perhaps even win a few weeks in 2007. Warner might then be persuaded to go HD DVD exclusive and HD DVD's chances of staying around forever or winning go way up.

If you are pro Blu-Ray the concensus is that people are willing to pay more for the Blu-Ray name and their exclusive studio content. Sony alone projected 500K players by years end and if the BDA can keep standalone sales even close (as they have been since inception) the PS3 will continue to overwhelm HD DVD in install base and media sales. In addition, the stronger lineup in movies in Q4 will be an advantage for Blu.

I personally see things somewhere in the middle of all this. I see HD DVD gaining some ground, but I do not see them winning many (most likely 0) weeks in the Nielsen ratings and I am just not sure if Toshiba can maintain the A2 sales pace. It would seem to me that anybody that has been waiting on the sidelines to buy an HD DVD player most likely jumped in this week or will be jumping in over the next week or two when stock is available.

We don't know what the BDA has up their sleeve, but there are too many powerful CE's with a lot to lose to just do nothing. I think everybody is waiting for some official HD DVD sales numbers. Blu-Ray may be able to ride the storm with their players and $399 PS3's, or Toshiba may have just forced them to play hardball.

I personally believe the Nielsen numbers will be very important over the next 8 weeks. They will certainly help gauge where this format war is at, and where it is trending.

I really don't know exactly how this works, but if you look at Amazon's hidef rankings right now it is kind of interesting. Ratatuille is 1, but then Transformers and Planet Earth HD DVD are 2 and 3. Spiderman trilogy is 4th! Spiderman 3 is not even in the top ten! That seems surprising. Bourne Ultimatum is 5, and Heroes Season 1 is 10, so HD DVD has 5 out of the top 10, not bad!

First signs of an 'A2 effect'?

I've read that too ... but it's just rampant speculation ... I don't think that's necessarily the case.


Remember, Toshiba's year ends March 2008 ... not December 2007. I think that's what Kosty was referring to when he mentioned the 1.8.

Personally, I think it's *possible* for them to hit their revised numbers by March 2008.


Yup, it's all just guesses. If these players sold well this weekend, I'm sure we'll hear about it next week.


Depends on where those players were bought. This week's purchases won't reflect next week (and I'm sure we'll see a bunch of 'Not even $98 HD DVD players can't beat Blu-ray' posts). It'll likely take a few weeks for the new players to affect numbers as those that bought this weekend will likely not buy any movies until they can watch the ones they already bought.


I think they have an advantage on some of the movies, not all. SM3 seems to be dissappointing so far. I wonder how many they'll sell? And if they'll count the box set discs individually?


Time will tell ...


Agreed, I think the BDA will surely have a < $399 player despite their recent assurances they will not (like they weren't going to have an 80GB SKU). My concern is that it will be a Profile 1.0 player advertised as if it were Profile 1.1 compliant.


I think they will be important, but I think we also need to consider them incomplete for weeks where there are special deals for one format or another at retailers whose data is not captured.

Personally, I think it's too soon ... but that's just me.

^^
Rat #20, SM trilogy #42
Transformers is 37, PE is 41.

Personally, I expect TF to stay within the top 100 for a while, similarly to 300 & PE on both formats.

I'm somewhat surprised that SM trilogy is even selling that many. Obviously due to the higher price of the box set (and the fact that its 3 movies), they tend to have lower volume (as was the case with the matrix set).

PE on hd dvd was historically anywhere from 40 - 100. It has been selling better than the blu-ray version most of the time as well (#71)

as the poster above me mentioned, I think its too soon. If anything, the B&M effect will be greater than the amazon sales.

Yes but the SM set is cheaper than either of the Matrix sets were when released. Plus there are more players now than there were then. I did think it would be doing a little better, but I guess the packaged 40GB SKU might be hurting it some.

On that note, does anyone know if the release that is packaged with the 40GB PS3 any different than the retail release?

This has been discussed a lot all week. Prior to a day ago, Best Buy had the lowest prices on Spiderman 3 and the Trilogy on BD. If you look around the various forums you will see that people were mostly buying these titles at B&M stores. Since Circuit City gives you 110% price match people were also going there in big numbers, as well as getting Wal-mart to price match. I know my local Wal-mart had a bunch of both the trilogy and the single and on Friday morning they had 1 trilogy left and 3 singles. And they were priced more than Best Buy.

I think we will know this coming Friday. If Spiderman 3 sold anything like Amazon is indicating across the board, then there will be a lot of celebrating by HD DVD fans

Interesting how quickly things change. It is odd about Bourne, as it is not even ranked at eproductwars. Perhaps it is not as accurate as I thought. Here's the current top ten from eproductwars (with the overall Amazon DVD ranking):

1. Ratatouille [Blu-ray] (#20)
2. Transformers [HD DVD] (#37)
3. Planet Earth - The Complete BBC Series [HD DVD] (#41)
4. Spider-Man - The High Definition Trilogy [Blu-ray] (#42)
5. Cars [Blu-ray] (#62)
6. Planet Earth - The Complete BBC Series [Blu-ray] (#70)
7. Pirates of the Caribbean - At World's End [Blu-ray] (#80)
8. 2001 - A Space Odyssey [Blu-ray] (#81)
9. Heroes - Season 1 [HD DVD] (#111)
10. Spider-Man 3 [Blu-ray] (#119)

Source: http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/Top.cfm

Bourne was just listed on amazon a few hours ago I believe.

Wait a second, on Amazon, Planet Earth HD DVD, at $60 premimum product released on April 24th, is beating out Spiderman 3 on the week of Spiderman's release? Now that's a shocker! Any ideas why? Wal-mart related?

Remember cdzie, Blu-ray owners don't buy movies from Amazon. That's what they used to tell us at the beginning of the year.

Actually, that is what they used to say. But let's be honest, this is one of Blu-ray's marquee titles. Anyone who thinks this movie won't come close to Transformer numbers this week is not being realistic.

BB the #1 HDM retailer had/has the trilogy for less than amazon......thats very rare. Box sets sell at inflated ranking on amazon due to the remarkably bette rprice as opposed to B&M.

Yeah, I'm not suggesting that Planet Earth HD DVD will even come close to Spiderman 3 in the weekly numbers. But I'm impressed with the staying power of Planet Earth.