Originally Posted by ack_bk
I am not talking about the sale on Friday lasting through this week. I am talking about projected numbers through the end of 2007. If you are active in any of the general discussion threads or hanging around the HD DVD player forums there is a lot of speculation that the news that broke several months ago that Wal-mart ordered 2 million players from China (Fuha Yaun?) is actually Toshiba A2 players that have been stockpiled.
I've read that too ... but it's just rampant speculation ... I don't think that's necessarily the case.
Toshiba hitting their forecast of 1 million players this year would mean they would have to sell at least 700-800K players in November and December. I think Kosty has mentioned that Toshiba may hit 1.8 million players this year several times already (he may be including the add-on).
Remember, Toshiba's year ends March 2008 ... not December 2007. I think that's what Kosty was referring to when he mentioned the 1.8.
Personally, I think it's *possible* for them to hit their revised numbers by March 2008.
My personal opinion is that Toshiba will sell well below 1 million players by the end of 2007, but it is anybody's guess.
Yup, it's all just guesses. If these players sold well this weekend, I'm sure we'll hear about it next week.
If you are pro HD DVD, it seems the concensus is that Toshiba will hit (and perhaps surpass) their projected 1 million number. With their higher attah rate, this would be enough for Toshiba to even the software sales score and perhaps even win a few weeks in 2007. Warner might then be persuaded to go HD DVD exclusive and HD DVD's chances of staying around forever or winning go way up.
Depends on where those players were bought. This week's purchases won't reflect next week (and I'm sure we'll see a bunch of 'Not even $98 HD DVD players can't beat Blu-ray' posts). It'll likely take a few weeks for the new players to affect numbers as those that bought this weekend will likely not buy any movies until they can watch the ones they already bought.
If you are pro Blu-Ray the concensus is that people are willing to pay more for the Blu-Ray name and their exclusive studio content. Sony alone projected 500K players by years end and if the BDA can keep standalone sales even close (as they have been since inception) the PS3 will continue to overwhelm HD DVD in install base and media sales. In addition, the stronger lineup in movies in Q4 will be an advantage for Blu.
I think they have an advantage on some of the movies, not all. SM3 seems to be dissappointing so far. I wonder how many they'll sell? And if they'll count the box set discs individually?
I personally see things somewhere in the middle of all this. I see HD DVD gaining some ground, but I do not see them winning many (most likely 0) weeks in the Nielsen ratings and I am just not sure if Toshiba can maintain the A2 sales pace. It would seem to me that anybody that has been waiting on the sidelines to buy an HD DVD player most likely jumped in this week or will be jumping in over the next week or two when stock is available.
Time will tell ...
We don't know what the BDA has up their sleeve, but there are too many powerful CE's with a lot to lose to just do nothing. I think everybody is waiting for some official HD DVD sales numbers. Blu-Ray may be able to ride the storm with their players and $399 PS3's, or Toshiba may have just forced them to play hardball.
Agreed, I think the BDA will surely have a < $399 player despite their recent assurances they will not (like they weren't going to have an 80GB SKU). My concern is that it will be a Profile 1.0 player advertised as if it were Profile 1.1 compliant.
I personally believe the Nielsen numbers will be very important over the next 8 weeks. They will certainly help gauge where this format war is at, and where it is trending.
I think they will be important, but I think we also need to consider them incomplete for weeks where there are special deals for one format or another at retailers whose data is not captured.