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What would it take for a studio to defect?

post #1 of 13
7/29/07 at 11:48pm
Thread Starter 
I just jumped on HD-DVD and I'm loving it so far. I can't complain about the selection, I very much enjoyed the Matrix Trilogy and V for Vendetta. But I would really like to see some other studios releasing content. There are certain discs that may make me go neutral, such as full series releases of 24 or LOST. So it would be ideal if some studios would go neutral or support HD-DVD is some manner. So realistically, what is it going to take?

I understand that some studios are owned by Sony, and Disney is a topic in itself. But what about all the other studios without any vested interest? What would need to change to get them to come over to the red side? If install base equals 1mil units by years end, is that enough? If HD-DVD gets 51% market share (even for just one week), would that be enough for a studio to reconsider their position? Which studio do you guys think will buckle first?
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post #2 of 13
7/29/07 at 11:51pm
about a thousand more "what will it take..." threads, do a search this stuff is talked about all day everyday..

PS welcome to HD DVD the look and sound of perfect.
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post #3 of 13
7/30/07 at 12:03am
It'll take millions of players. Toshiba "has" to hit a million players by the end of this year. Then they can push forward aggressively for 2008. Disney and crew aren't coming over until there are millions of little voices screaming at them for content.
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post #4 of 13
7/30/07 at 3:04am
Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post

It'll take millions of players. Toshiba "has" to hit a million players by the end of this year. Then they can push forward aggressively for 2008. Disney and crew aren't coming over until there are millions of little voices screaming at them for content.


Exactly. It has to hurt financially on a big scale before a studio will even think about going neutral. When the best HDM titles only sell 50-80K copies it isn't enough to override DRM, corporate pride or anything else. Let the installed base build and when Universal is selling a few million copies of Bourne Ultimatum or American Gangster someone might jump ship. I still bet on the smaller (less wealthy) studios going neutral first.

If you really want to know I would advise performing some research on sales numbers at the time when Disney and Fox started publishing on DVD. Both were late to press DVDs and both were on the wrong side in the short lived DVD/DIVX format war.
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post #5 of 13
7/30/07 at 6:22am
Quote:
Originally Posted by fistofsouth
Let the installed base build and when Universal is selling a few million copies of Bourne Ultimatum or American Gangster someone might jump ship. I still bet on the smaller (less wealthy) studios going neutral first.

Nice theory, but that's not going to happen until HDM have completely replaced DVD, if ever. Universal's goal for Bourne Ultimatum this Christmas is probably 150,000 copies, and that's on the high side.

American Gangster will not arrive until March 2008.

fitprod
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post #6 of 13
7/30/07 at 6:29am
Time...

...it's still early, and despite what BR fans wan't, both sides have a ways to go in convincing the general public. Gonna take more time...
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post #7 of 13
7/30/07 at 6:41am
Quote:
Originally Posted by fitprod View Post

Universal's goal for Bourne Ultimatum this Christmas is probably 150,000 copies, and that's on the high side.

Wait, wait, wait a second HD DVD hasn't even pulled out it's big guns yet! It's July for crying out loud, you don't win a format war in July. Like my prediction about 3 weeks back, right now is the darkest day for HD DVD, but things will start improving rapidly.

July 31: 300' is released on HD DVD
Aug 1: Xbox HD DVD drive is reduced $20 and adds 5 free movies
Aug 7: Xbox 360 gets a $50 price reduction (and yes, this is good news for HD DVD)
Aug 28: Heroes Season 1 Released Exclusive to HD DVD

Meanwhile, Microsoft will be running HD DVD promotions on Xbox live all month and who knows, there may be other surprises in store for us. The user base is already 500,000+ worldwide and I think we'll see 1.2 to 1.6 million HD DVD players (including standalones, xbox and PC drives) by the end of the year.

As of this morning:
Toshiba A2 HD DVD #1 on Amazon's best selling DVD players
Toshiba A2 HD DVD #1 on Circuit City best selling high-def players
The Best Buy & Circuit City by my house are sold out of the A2.

Wait until $199 standalone MSRP & $129 Xbox drives hit later this year, things will really intensify.
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post #8 of 13
7/30/07 at 9:28am
Quote:


Originally Posted by cdzie1
July 31: 300' is released on HD DVD
Aug 1: Xbox HD DVD drive is reduced $20 and adds 5 free movies
Aug 7: Xbox 360 gets a $50 price reduction (and yes, this is good news for HD DVD)
Aug 28: Heroes Season 1 Released Exclusive to HD DVD

Quote:


Wait until $199 standalone MSRP & $129 Xbox drives hit later this year, things will really intensify.

'300' will be an interesting test, but citing normal trends BD will sell more than the HD DVD.

XBox price redution is going to be minor, since it only works if people will buy it for their Xbox360.

XBox price reduction is only relevant for gamers, and they've been burned by the failure rate of the unit the past couple of years. Most people looking for HD DVD will gravitate toweards a stand alone unit. (Although the Halo 3 factor will be interesting.)

Heroes: Season 1 will sell better than Matrix, but that won't be much of a accomplishment. It will fall somewhere around 50 to 60 thousand units at best. It's price will be prohibitive.

The only thing that will intensify when the $199 Stand alone prices hit will be product spin... In both camps.

If Universal even thinks of pressing 1 Million units of Bourne Ultimatum, their going to have thier own little Fantasia LD debacle...

fitprod
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post #9 of 13
7/30/07 at 9:38am
Quote:
Originally Posted by cdzie1 View Post

Wait, wait, wait a second HD DVD hasn't even pulled out it's big guns yet! It's July for crying out loud, you don't win a format war in July. Like my prediction about 3 weeks back, right now is the darkest day for HD DVD, but things will start improving rapidly.

July 31: 300' is released on HD DVD
Aug 1: Xbox HD DVD drive is reduced $20 and adds 5 free movies
Aug 7: Xbox 360 gets a $50 price reduction (and yes, this is good news for HD DVD)
Aug 28: Heroes Season 1 Released Exclusive to HD DVD

Meanwhile, Microsoft will be running HD DVD promotions on Xbox live all month and who knows, there may be other surprises in store for us. The user base is already 500,000+ worldwide and I think we'll see 1.2 to 1.6 million HD DVD players (including standalones, xbox and PC drives) by the end of the year.

As of this morning:
Toshiba A2 HD DVD #1 on Amazon's best selling DVD players
Toshiba A2 HD DVD #1 on Circuit City best selling high-def players
The Best Buy & Circuit City by my house are sold out of the A2.

Wait until $199 standalone MSRP & $129 Xbox drives hit later this year, things will really intensify.

This is Big Jim McBob saying mighty fine post. You blowed up good; real good.
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post #10 of 13
7/30/07 at 9:48am
Quote:
Originally Posted by fitprod View Post

'300' will be an interesting test, but citing normal trends BD will sell more than the HD DVD.

XBox price redution is going to be minor, since it only works if people will buy it for their Xbox360.

XBox price reduction is only relevant for gamers, and they've been burned by the failure rate of the unit the past couple of years. Most people looking for HD DVD will gravitate toweards a stand alone unit. (Although the Halo 3 factor will be interesting.)

Heroes: Season 1 will sell better than Matrix, but that won't be much of a accomplishment. It will fall somewhere around 50 to 60 thousand units at best. It's price will be prohibitive.

The only thing that will intensify when the $199 Stand alone prices hit will be product spin... In both camps.

If Universal even thinks of pressing 1 Million units of Bourne Ultimatum, their going to have thier own little Fantasia LD debacle...

fitprod

The $5 premium for 300 HD DVD is causing a lot of neutral owners to buy the Blu-ray version.

I think Bourne Ultimatum will sell + 150k units based on projected 1 million HD DVD player targets by years end. You would only need %15 of the owners to buy and according to the initial reviews of BU

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/bourne_ultimatum/
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0440963/
It's looking like a winner

Consoles sell very well for the Holidays. I expect that stores will discount the Xbox addon on even more and we'll likely see $149. That and a free 6 movies makes it a no brainer for anyone with the funds.

Plus HD DVD needs a groundswell of new vendors. The Reference platform players should finally hit. It's feasible that Gen3 of Toshiba's players go back up in price and vacate the $200-300 range for the Reference players. This could be easily accomplished by adding more features to the players that would warrant paying more. Larger persistent storage, Analog outputs, HDMI 1.3a 24fps output.
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post #11 of 13
7/30/07 at 10:03am
FYI, I am neutral and ordered the BD version of 300 due to the price difference. Yes, I'm aware of the dif in extras, and it was just a choice that was right for me.

Just concurring with the previous poster that 300 will probably be overall good for HD formats in general, not necessarily any one format, though I suspect prior trends and the price difference to favor BD.

As for what it would take for a studio to defect...

Imagine if that studio was universal or warner? To become BD only. Not going to happen, but think of the power those guys have...either one jumps ship, and HD DVD is in deeeep doody.

I don't care who wins...but somebody, win this format war!
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post #12 of 13
7/30/07 at 10:16am
Quote:
Originally Posted by eizenga13 View Post

about a thousand more "what will it take..." threads, do a search this stuff is talked about all day everyday..

PS welcome to HD DVD the look and sound of perfect.

Even though you're right, almost every topic on these formums has been beaten to death. There is really nothing new on these Blu-ray and HD DVD forums for the past 6 months, so if you limit the threads to only new material, then there will barely be anything to read here.
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post #13 of 13
7/30/07 at 10:26am
Quote:
Originally Posted by jefflins View Post

I don't care who wins...but somebody, win this format war!

Why? The war is great for all of us in getting better quality for less cost. It certainly has forced Blu-ray to step up their quality. Those people that think that it is keeping the general public from buying in are wrong. The only thing keeping the general public away is price---they will buy either format when the price is right, and then of course the studios are going where the players are as well. The general public had absolutely no interest in HDTV over the past five years until the HDTVs got dramatically cheaper. Now even Walmart is selling $500 HDTVs, and while they are not top of the line, they are good compared to where the really expensive technolgy was only 3 or 4 years ago. These cheap TVs have built in ATSC tuners as well as HDMI connectors. Because the general public can now buy cheap HDTVs, many will look at it and say the interest has really grown, where the reality is that most people still don't care about HD, but if they can get it cheap they will take it. The same will be true as soon as you can get a HD DVD player for under $100.
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