Poll:Coexistence between HD DVD & Blu-ray, YES or NO?

Originally Posted by aydu

If they co-exist it will mean the same fate as DVD-A/SACD.

Mass market will see it as too complicated and not a big enough advantage over DVDs.

HD disc based formats all have a limited time to replace DVDs as the standard. The existance of two formats wastes that time.

By the time one eventually "wins" there will be a newer content delivery technology that will make discs obsolete.

The studios will always win as they own the content.

Originally Posted by aydu

If they co-exist it will mean the same fate as DVD-A/SACD.

Mass market will see it as too complicated and not a big enough advantage over DVDs.

HD disc based formats all have a limited time to replace DVDs as the standard. The existance of two formats wastes that time.

Originally Posted by dhodory

Frankly, I believe that co-existence for some period of time eventually ends up favoring HD DVD over BRD. Why? Well, with improved codecs, space required ought to drop, making BRD's 20 GB space advantage less meaningful. Also, as online content proliferates (and more and more 'wired' homes have their HD DVD player connected to the web) space becomes less relevant. Last thought, if HD DVDs are truly less expensive to author and press, if you're a studio and you don't need the extra 20GB of space for a title, why would you willingly choose a more expensive format to publish in (BRD) when you can earn $x more per disc with HD DVD? In two or three years, assuming both formats co-exist and dual format player proliferate, I could see studios publishing on both formats depending upon the needs of the title in question -- need a lot of space for a long movie, publish on BRD; shorter film selling to a smaller volume market with lots of opportunity for internet connected extras, publish on HD DVD.

Originally Posted by tomes

Why do you anticipate there will be any discernible difference in cost of media or players further down the line? Mass production will most likely eliminate or very close to eliminate those factors.

Originally Posted by Timothy Ramzyk

don't we have about two-three polls asking the same thing running at the same time?

Originally Posted by theflux

I think that coexistence is possible in the scope of both formats failing spectacularly. If HD media is to ever overtake DVD, one will have to prevail.

Originally Posted by dhodory

Well I guess we're just on opposite sides of the "assumption fence". My first thought is that authoring is not likely to get easier given the platforms provided (HDi and BD-J). While BD-J is far more flexible, it comes at the cost of complexity and subject matter expertise/capability. While I suspect you can do quite few "really cool" things with BD-J that you cannot do with HDi, doing those things will require lots of extra time and capability, both of which require money. Second, BRD has replication problems, and at this point they've obviously not solved them (if they had, based on Sony's track record, they'd be screaming it from the top of every mountain with a press release every five minutes). I guess I don't make the assumption that any manufacturing issue can be solved and scaled -- I've seen too many that couldn't be solved/scaled to believe in BRD at this point. Also, keep in mind that BRD has been around (in some form) for something like 6 to 8 years already, I think (started in Japan as a storage medium, I believe) -- my time frame could be off. In any case, to not have solved a manufacturing problem in even 3 years, or 2 years is a problem. So, again, I think the jury is still out on the feasibility of large scale, high yield, economic production of BRD. As with all things, YMMV.

Originally Posted by rlsmith

If both formats are still with us in a year or two it will likely be because both have pretty much failed.

1. The use cases are almost completely identical, making no clear differentiation in the consumer's mind
2. Customers are waiting for a resolution to the format war before they buy.
3. Once there is a resolution, the winning format will jump forward quickly, and the losing format will be forgotten about. There will be no "legacy".

Originally Posted by rlsmith

If both formats are still with us in a year or two it will likely be because both have pretty much failed.

1. The use cases are almost completely identical, making no clear differentiation in the consumer's mind
2. Customers are waiting for a resolution to the format war before they buy.
3. Once there is a resolution, the winning format will jump forward quickly, and the losing format will be forgotten about. There will be no "legacy".

Originally Posted by Icemage

Coexistence is very unlikely. Retailers don't want it. Studios don't want it. Only a tiny minority of informed but deluded early adopters want it; the rest of the buying public just wants something that works every time.

If coexistence happens, both formats become permanently niche and never hit mainstream.