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8 factories now replicating BD50 discs (only 3 are Sony) - Page 7

post #181 of 235
Singulus installed nearly 200 HD DVD capable machines by now.
Since they are not the only ones selling production lines for HDDVD there are far more than 200 production lines available for HD DVD.
Going with a fairly low estimate of 10000 disc per line per day that is a worldwide capacity of over 2million discs per day.

HD DVD is ready to take on the mass market today.
post #182 of 235
We have plenty of fan boy comments on this forum, no need to import more from another site!

The proof is in the pudding:
If BD-50 was not available, Studios would not be using them, they do.
If Blu Ray cost more to produce, Studios would charge more for them, they don't.

What else is there to say.
post #183 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by aka_dnv View Post

We have plenty of fan boy comments on this forum, no need to import more from another site!

The proof is in the pudding:
If BD-50 was not available, Studios would not be using them, they do.
If Blu Ray cost more to produce, Studios would charge more for them, they don't.

What else is there to say.

BD50 disc production is tiny, Sony can easily afford to make them even with a 10% yield
The Studios aren't paying extra for the discs, they are subsidised by Sony.
post #184 of 235
[quote=whippersnapper;11456653]
Quote:


While some "talk the talk" others "walk the walk". Go to linked site and click on the "release date" column heading. You'll see that whereever the studio determined that a BD50 was appropriate for the release, it was selected. And you'll notice that there is certainly no shortage of releases using BD50. Of course if you go to the end to the early Blu-ray releases, most were done using BD25s. THAT WAS THEN, THIS IS NOW. But, once again, don't let facts stand in the way of your arguments & mythology.

http://www.blu-raystats.com/index.php?OrderBy=Date

Man, I couldn't agree more. That was then and this is now. Now is August of 2007. While there may have been "no shortage of BD50s" in August, according to bluraystats there certainly was a shortage of BD releases of any kind.

13 titles for the whole month-including a Paramount title. The breakdown is 9 50BD to 4 25BD. For the month, thats barely 1 BD50 title for each alleged factory!

And why in the now of August 2007, was it "appropriate" to release Arlington Rd, a 117 minute movie, as a 25BD, and Van Wilder, an 87 minute movie, at 50BD?
post #185 of 235
Ha Ha

Another SONY hater here.
post #186 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by gtgray View Post

You see you are caught up in selling price. If I am a new BD50 replicator and I am getting a 10% yeild and I want to get experience and customers then I can't sell at my true cost per piece. I have to sell at market price. So it might cost me, thhe replicator, $10 for each finishished BD50 but I must sell it for $2.95 hoping that over time my plant will gain experience and be able to capture customers and increase yeilds resulting ulitmately in a profitable BD50 business. It could be very hard right now, with tons of scrap. We just don't know beyond the fuzzy anecdotes.

Indeed.
post #187 of 235
Obviously there are BD-50's out there. The concern is over the cost to make them [which can include the cost of building the facility and/or converting it from making DVD's to Blu-rays and the cost of having lousy yields] and the availability of the BD-50's for a mass market [which seems to not be ready due to rumors of 40% and 10% yields.] And yes, I agree we can't take 100% what Dave Vaughn to be true, since it is second-hand information. But it is the most credible source of information we've had on yields yet [he's a third-party insider with no agenda], and until someone can provide a third-party with no agenda saying otherwise, it's the best info we have so far.

The only reason companies aren't charging more for BD-50 releases is because Sony is subsidizing their production and ensuring the companies don't have to pay more for them. However, those subsidies are set to end soon. And rumors are this was one of the reasons Paramount/DreamWorks decided to migrate over. I would imagine Sony would continue to subsidize them though, since it sounds like the cost for them without subsidies would be astronimically too high for studios to ever consider making a profit [which they're barely doing right now, if they're even making a profit on either format.] And Sony was hoping to have better yields by now of BD-50's, but it doesn't seem to be working out too well yet. Another question is how long Sony will be able to bleed red concerning the BD-50's, as they're already bleeding red with having to sell PS3's at a loss while losing the console wars. It's not that great of a policy of a comany to continue to sell things at a loss without even making up ground on their competitors, and it just makes you wonder what is the breaking point before Sony corp. pulls the plug on this whole blu-ray fiasco. They better start making money soon and improving yields or I don't see this heading anywhere good. HD DVD with their prices is certainly making this hard for Sony to make profits, and I'd like to see how they overcome their perennial quaterly losses from their gaming division and the blu-ray format. If HD DVD was not around, Sony's plan might be working because they'd still get to sell players at around $600-$1000, and maybe even charge more for their movies, but Toshiba has made it almost impossible for Blu-ray to turn a profit and remain competitive price-wise. The Chinese HD DVD players with a rumored $150 MSRP aren't going to help, either.
post #188 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by aka_dnv View Post

We have plenty of fan boy comments on this forum, no need to import more from another site!

The proof is in the pudding:
If BD-50 was not available, Studios would not be using them, they do.
If Blu Ray cost more to produce, Studios would charge more for them, they don't.

What else is there to say.

That this is faulty reasoning?

1) The volume the studios are using today is not representative of what will be necessary.

2) Cost does not necessarily dictate price. See: PS3, HD-A1, HD-D2, XBox360
post #189 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by mswoods1 View Post

I saw one quote from Dave Vaughn, but has his latest ones been posted? Anyway, here they are, from the HTS forum:





Link: http://www.***************.com/fusio...d/138273/tp/6/

Here's another example. Every time we have any potential source of info, it seems to confirm the problems with yield. Given this is widely known to have been an early problem, I'd think they'd want to shout from the rooftops if the problems had been solved. Instead there is silence from official channels, and continued accounts of manufacturing issues.
post #190 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by scaesare View Post

That this is faulty reasoning?

1) The volume the studios are using today is not representative of what will be necessary.

2) Cost does not necessarily dictate price. See: PS3, HD-A1, HD-D2, XBox360

I am trying to base my conclusions on reality.
I have never stated that BD-50 yields are low or high or medium. I have never
said that "I think" subsidies exists or don't exist. What I have been saying is: there is no evidence to support either of those claims.

What you are saying is:

Despite any supporting evidence of BD-50 availability issues, now, that there will be in the future.
Despite any supporting evidence that BD-50 is subsidized, that, because some other products are subsidized, that BD-50 is also subsidized.

See the difference ?
post #191 of 235
The evidence is there, you just choose not to believe it.
post #192 of 235
Quote:
Here's another example. Every time we have any potential source of info, it seems to confirm the problems with yield.

But if read the complete exchange his 10% number is referring to plants that have been open for 2-3 months. I still don't see numbers for the plants that have been open longer.
post #193 of 235
From todays's discussion, on the insiders thread:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showp...postcount=3616
post #194 of 235
Given how "non-events" have become headline news release items from the BDA, I think we can be absolutely certain that if the BD50 yield issues had been solved (or for that matter, even greatly improved or improving), Sony and the BDA would be shouting it from every rooftop.
post #195 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank Derks View Post

Singulus installed nearly 200 HD DVD capable machines by now.
Since they are not the only ones selling production lines for HDDVD there are far more than 200 production lines available for HD DVD.
Going with a fairly low estimate of 10000 disc per line per day that is a worldwide capacity of over 2million discs per day.

HD DVD is ready to take on the mass market today.

Now if you only had consumers who were interested.
post #196 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tobi54 View Post

From todays's discussion, on the insiders thread:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showp...postcount=3616

Info that can be confirmed, not hearsay, which is what this is.

Anyone at AVS can say there are an insider, second, everyone is an insider of something. What is this guy is an insider of? HD Media replication ? I don't think so.
post #197 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by aka_dnv View Post

Anyone at AVS can say there are an insider, second, everyone is an insider of something. What is this guy is an insider of? HD Media replication ? I don't think so.

Okay, why don't you try to get a mod to announce you as an insider if you think it's so easy?
post #198 of 235
There are independent replicators for BD-50, therefore it should be possible to corroborate information, if the information is provided. That would be evidence. This is hearsay.
post #199 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by aka_dnv View Post

I am trying to base my conclusions on reality.
I have never stated that BD-50 yields are low or high or medium. I have never
said that "I think" subsidies exists or don't exist. What I have been saying is: there is no evidence to support either of those claims.

What you are saying is:

Despite any supporting evidence of BD-50 availability issues, now, that there will be in the future.
Despite any supporting evidence that BD-50 is subsidized, that, because some other products are subsidized, that BD-50 is also subsidized.

See the difference ?

No. You said the "proof was in the pudding". But the facts you state do not PROVE that BD50 can be made economically, and with acceptable yield. Those are the issues I am questioning. Not whether a plant with 12 lines can churn out a few hundred thousand discs a month.

Look, I'm not making up claims out of the blu(e). I'm not saying, "There's no evidence that BD50's don't cause cancer, therefore perhaps they do."

What has been said, for going on a couple of years now, by several different people, including insiders who might have position to know, is that BD50 has always had yield difficulties. Therefore it's an allegation that's been made and is still on the table.

I'm looking for evidence for or against. Additional evidence, even though second hand (Dave Vaughn), suggests this is still the case. And he's got some reasonable credibility, being someone who reports on the industry.

By itself, not incriminating. But taken on the whole with the the other allegations, it starts to gain some traction as a possibility.

Perhaps even larger, no solid evidence refutes it. Just as with the Paramount deal, the insinuation that MS paid Paramount off would have significantly stronger legs had not a Corporate VP of MS addressed he issue directly and outright denied it. Had he not done so, would there not be a greater reason to suspect the allegation held water?
post #200 of 235
There is proof, circumstantial evidence, and fantasy.

In terms of economy, yields and costs are directly related.
Independent contractors provide prices based on their costs; therefore prices will be higher when yields are lower. Can we agree on this? The prices coming form independent replicators are going to give you you’re answer as to the economy of BD-50 and indirectly, on yield.

I predict that sometime soon we are going to see prices for replication of BD-50 from independent replicators, not Sony, independents.

Do you agree that this will resolve this debate?
post #201 of 235
Since I am mentioned in this thread, I guess I should chime in.

For starters, I didn't volunteer to be in the Insiders Thread, I was asked to join by a moderator here is the site.

As for my preference for a "winner" in the format war...I have NONE. I own both formats, I review both formats, and am unbiased. I honestly don't care who wins. I am reporting what my contacts are telling me from inside the industry. I have been reviewing movies for 4 years on DVD, Blu-ray and HD DVD as well as equipment reviews for HTS. In January of this year, I was approached by UAV to write for them as well due to my work at HTS that I had never been paid to do other than for my own personal enjoyment. My work for UAV is a paid position, so I guess you could officially call me a journalist since I receive a check from Prime Media, the parent corporation for UAV (publisher of Home Theater Magazine, Stereophile etc.).

As to the issues with yields on BD50's and Sony's subsidy of them, this has come from two sources and as you have noticed from the Insiders thread, not one person from the BD group has shouted me down for publishing false information or that my information is incorrect. When I first heard the yield numbers a month ago, I didn't believe it until I was able to verify it from another source, which I recently did. As for the Sony subsidy, this has also been confirmed from more than one source.

When it comes to producing BD discs and BD-Java, it isn't easy to do. One studio's cost estimate per disc was over $15 per disc, given the low amount of discs that they produced (under 10K) and their actual costs to produce the title. According to my source at the studio, if they had to pay for the actual cost of the BD50, then their costs would have been a little over $20 per disc once it was ready to ship out, but luckily for them Sony was covering the added expense of making the disc on a BD50, so they lost "less" money than they could have.

The thing that early adopters and fanboys on each side of this "battle" fail to realize is that economics are going to start to take hold in this thing soon, as was exemplified in the Paramount announcement. When they looked at the costs of producing discs using both formats, the cost structure of HD DVD is a better economic model at this point and time and into the foreseeable future. What people need to realize is that Paramount was basically doing a market test the past 12 months on HD DVD and Blu-ray, and at the end of 12 months, they think that HD DVD is the better option for them in an economic sense. The feel they can make more money from HD DVD in the long term because it is more ready for the marketplace...it is cheaper to produce the discs (HDi vs BD-Java), the players spec is finalized (no profile 1.0, 1.1 or 2.0 to deal with), the yields on HD30's are around 95%, and in comparisons between the two formats with the end product, BOTH LOOK AND SOUND FANTASTIC! So if you were a studio, which model would you choose?

If you search back through my posts here or at HTS, you will see that I have been critical of both formats for various reasons (mainly that consumers are put in the middle of this whole thing), but the information that I am sharing is from credible sources and as time goes on and more information gets out to other journalists, you will start to see that my sources aren't feeding me a line of BS.
post #202 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by scaesare View Post

What has been said, for going on a couple of years now, by several different people, including insiders who might have position to know, is that BD50 has always had yield difficulties. Therefore it's an allegation that's been made and is still on the table.

Do they like the "science fiction" section of the book store?


Quote:
Originally Posted by scaesare View Post

Perhaps even larger, no solid evidence refutes it. Just as with the Paramount deal, the insinuation that MS paid Paramount off would have significantly stronger legs had not a Corporate VP of MS addressed he issue directly and outright denied it. Had he not done so, would there not be a greater reason to suspect the allegation held water?

It's been beat to death, but I'm sure said corporate VP would have been instructed in the precise language, if he was in the loop on such a deal to begin with. Said corporate VP was also pretty specific from the perspective of the denial (specific to MSFT in this case) and was far less precise with regards to other companies that participate with HDDVD PRG. You can bet the check wasn't signed by Gates, Ballmer, or Collins, much less said VP's name,
post #203 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by aka_dnv View Post

There is proof, circumstantial evidence, and fantasy.

In terms of economy, yields and costs are directly related.
Independent contractors provide prices based on their costs; therefore prices will be higher when yields are lower. Can we agree on this? The prices coming form independent replicators are going to give you you’re answer as to the economy of BD-50 and indirectly, on yield.

I predict that sometime soon we are going to see prices for replication of BD-50 from independent replicators, not Sony, independents.

Do you agree that this will resolve this debate?

No one else is producing BD50's right now that I know of besides Sony, even though they have lines installed. But because the yields are so low they are only making BD25's.
post #204 of 235
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by JeffY View Post

I don't know much about Dave either, but if anything I'd say he sits on the Blu side of the fence.

Puh-lease - that is not true at all.

I do not believe for a second that Vaughan has insider knowledge from Sony's Japanese factory workers and engineers about their reproduction.

No-one is shouting anyone down because the only insider close enough would be paidgeek and he is an engineer for Sony Pictures, not an insider with Sony DADC.
post #205 of 235
dobyblue,

You are right, it isn't from a factory worker, it is from other sources who have seen the numbers. Unlike you, I am not blinded by any bias. If yields of HD30's were low and I found out, I would post that information as well.
post #206 of 235
Hi Dave, no offense to you, I'm sure you’re being straight about what your sources are telling you. But with all the speculative info flying around these days I would respectfully prefer to get corroborative information. Your sources may have dated info, you may have heard of problems that may have occurred in the past and may now be resolved.
As I stated above, I am awaiting pricing from independent replicators to help resolve the issue.

Dave, not to get off topic, but since you brought up Paramount’s decision, I do have a few questions for you.

Why do you think Paramount decided to pull Blu Ray production of a movie, Blades of Glory, which was already under way?
Do you think it makes business sense to pull support for previous Blu Ray movies that have already been mastered, with packaging, and replication contracts in place?
Why not take the extra profit?

For me, being the skeptical type, it appears that immediately dropping everything to do with Blu Ray is evidence that there was some sort of agreement made.
And I'm not even going to mention the other circumstantial evidence pointing to a deal.

Thanks for your input Dave.
post #207 of 235
dave,
Your courageous to step out of the Insider thread. I do believe that the comparison between HDi and BD-J is difficult to access. As you stated above, once more HD titles are available the languages, tools, and frameworks will fill out making both relatively easy. In other words, I'm surprised that either "side" makes this an issue. I can understand Talk and Amir doing so since they have a pony in the race but producers and consumers should care less.
post #208 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Vaughn View Post

As for my preference for a "winner" in the format war...I have NONE. I own both formats, I review both formats, and am unbiased. I honestly don't care who wins. I am reporting what my contacts are telling me from inside the industry. I have been reviewing movies for 4 years on DVD, Blu-ray and HD DVD as well as equipment reviews for HTS. In January of this year, I was approached by UAV to write for them as well due to my work at HTS that I had never been paid to do other than for my own personal enjoyment. My work for UAV is a paid position, so I guess you could officially call me a journalist since I receive a check from Prime Media, the parent corporation for UAV (publisher of Home Theater Magazine, Stereophile etc.).

I'm a big fan of UAV and hit it regularly. I respect you and Shane more than near anyone else in that (journalistic) aspect of the industry. UAV's approach has been ... suspicious isn't quite the word... but has it's toe on the line, as it were, which makes me suspect they don't want to alienate either side. Do you feel you'd be able to speak freely on public forums and "choose sides," as it were?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Vaughn View Post

The thing that early adopters and fanboys on each side of this "battle" fail to realize is that economics are going to start to take hold in this thing soon, as was exemplified in the Paramount announcement. When they looked at the costs of producing discs using both formats, the cost structure of HD DVD is a better economic model at this point and time and into the foreseeable future.

So if you were a studio, which model would you choose?

I think 150M would influence that decision greatly over the near and even intermediate future of high definition optical media.
post #209 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by aka_dnv View Post

Hi Dave, no offense to you, I'm sure you're being straight about what your sources are telling you. But with all the speculative info flying around these days I would respectfully prefer to get corroborative information. Your sources may have dated info, you may have heard of problems that may have occurred in the past and may now be resolved.

The first I was made aware of this was in early July. I was able to confirm this information early last week after the Paramount news broke.

Quote:


As I stated above, I am awaiting pricing from independent replicators to help resolve the issue.

You will be waiting a while for this, since they can't get yields above 10% on their lines thus far. Sony is trying to help them, but replicating BD50's is not a simple process.


Dave, not to get off topic, but since you brought up Paramount's decision, I do have a few questions for you.

Quote:


Why do you think Paramount decided to pull Blu Ray production of a movie, Blades of Glory, which was already under way?

I normally receive Paramount titles 3 weeks before their release date. Blades of Glory was the first title that this hasn't happened on in the 4 years I have been reviewing Paramount titles. This deal wasn't done overnight.

Quote:


Do you think it makes business sense to pull support for previous Blu Ray movies that have already been mastered, with packaging, and replication contracts in place?
Why not take the extra profit?

Because there is no profit from these releases. They all lose money. I know that is hard for people to understand, but it is a fact right now. In order for a disc to show a profit, it needs to sell over 100,000 copies just to make up for most of the producing costs (encoding, royalties, etc). That is why they won't print anymore discs. Also, if they are BD50's, then I doubt Sony would subsidize them so they would lose even more money!

Quote:


For me, being the skeptical type, it appears that immediately dropping everything to do with Blu Ray is evidence that there was some sort of agreement made.
And I'm not even going to mention the other circumstantial evidence pointing to a deal.

You can bet there was an agreement made, but that doesn't mean that $150 million changed hands. They made a business decision, plain and simple. It's no different than a company handing out paychecks on a Friday afternoon and then deciding to hand out pink slips to everyone on Monday because they are shipping all of their manufacturing overseas in order to make more profit or to cuts costs because of competition. It is called business! The studios want to make money, regardless of the format. If HD DVD (or BD for that matter) starts selling 100,000 copies of every movie released because adoption rates climb as well as an installed base, the accountants and stockholders are going to demand that the studio adopt the format that is selling and they can make money on...they can't lose money forever.

Quote:


Thanks for your input Dave.

No problem.
post #210 of 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by UxiSXRD View Post

I'm a big fan of UAV and hit it regularly. I respect you and Shane more than near anyone else in that (journalistic) aspect of the industry. UAV's approach has been ... suspicious isn't quite the word... but has it's toe on the line, as it were, which makes me suspect they don't want to alienate either side.

Thanks. I was honored when Shane asked me to write for them. I was a subscriber to UAV for many years!

Quote:


Do you feel you'd be able to speak freely on public forums and "choose sides," as it were?

I think my work for UAV and Home Theater Spot doesn't allow me to choose a side, or else it could influence my writing either consciously or unconsciously. Read some of my reviews in July on Universal's catalog releases. I was very critical of the way they were releasing titles and not paying attention to quality.




Quote:


I think 150M would influence that decision greatly over the near and even intermediate future of high definition optical media.

Your right, it could. It's no different than Sony offering incentives to other studios to choose their format. Don't think for a minute that Disney wasn't given a healthy incentive to go with Blu-ray. Without Disney, Blu-ray would have never gotten off the ground IMO.
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