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Rob Enderle: Blu-Ray Has Lost. R.I.P.

post #1 of 48
8/28/07 at 11:06am
Thread Starter 
This is interesting...

I was one of the folks who thought that Blu-ray was going to eliminate HD-DVD and by this time HD-DVD would be toast. In fact, I was one of the analysts who helped convince Time Warner to hedge its bets and go with both formats. However, this was all before I knew the cost of the Blu-ray technology, and it was based on the assumption that Sony would never be stupid enough to price itself out of the game console market.



http://www.technewsworld.com/story/W...the-Week.xhtml
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post #2 of 48
8/28/07 at 11:10am
Then again, given Mr. Enderle's reputation among the Linux crowd...

Still, a stopped clock is right 2x a day
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post #3 of 48
8/28/07 at 11:21am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Otis Widlflower View Post

Then again, given Mr. Enderle's reputation among the Linux crowd...

Still, a stopped clock is right 2x a day

He says $250 milion in incentives, I thought the NYT article's "official" Viacom "exec" inititiated rumour was $150M?
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post #4 of 48
8/28/07 at 11:32am
Interesting he mentions Warner and Disney as keys studios that will probably decide the "war".

Warner going HD-exclusive and Disney going neutral? Another week or so and we'll find out.

I still think something big is in store for the HD camp. The Paramount/Dreamworks deal was only the beginning.
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post #5 of 48
8/28/07 at 11:45am
Interesting perspective. The author states pretty confdently that Blu-ray will lose when a lot of people either think Paramount and Dreamworks' move evens the playing field or "is just a flesh wound". It would be interesting to see what happenes after Sept 5 and the holiday season with HDM.
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post #6 of 48
8/28/07 at 11:55am
Quote:
Originally Posted by nohkul View Post

Interesting perspective. The author states pretty confdently that Blu-ray will lose when a lot of people either think Paramount and Dreamworks' move evens the playing field or "is just a flesh wound". It would be interesting to see what happenes after Sept 5 and the holiday season with HDM.

And he may be privy to alot of "insider" news as he admits he was one of the guys who was advising Warner Bros:

Quote:
In fact, I was one of the analysts who helped convince Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) to hedge its bets and go with both formats.

He seems pretty confident that Blu Ray is dead or in serious trouble. Does he know more but can't discuss it?
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post #7 of 48
8/28/07 at 12:22pm
Hopefully Fox & Disney are looking at this saying "hey, we better get on board!"
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post #8 of 48
8/28/07 at 12:37pm
Time to start a Blu Ray Death Clock
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post #9 of 48
8/28/07 at 12:50pm
LOL.......


I don't hear a fat lady singing yet!
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post #10 of 48
8/28/07 at 12:52pm
I want to believe the guy.. and it all sounds realistic... but I still have my doubts.
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post #11 of 48
8/28/07 at 12:58pm
I think there are many good points in that article covered over a very short amount of space:

1) Sony pricing itself out of the market was about the DUMBEST thing I've seen in consoles in a long, long time. And their conceited act towards the market and just flat assuming that everyone would buy one no matter what was pathetic. For that attitude alone, they deserve any struggles they get.

2) The fact that neither of these formats could end up "winning." I think this is very realistic, and will most likely be the result. I don't see any chance that either one of these formats replaces dvd, at best it's a niche format for the audio/video buffs. I think HD-DVD/Blu-Ray can be compared to a high end receiver/surround sound speaker setup. Something that many people think is interesting and cool, but just not something they see being worth spending the money on. DVD's will be "good enough" for 8 out of 10 people who walk into Best Buy, Circuit City, or wherever.

3) Speculation about what's next with the studios. Will Warner go HD-DVD only? Disney neutral? Again, Sony's epic screw-ups are causing them problems that they just shouldn't have. The PS3, with Blu-Ray built-in, SHOULD have been easy sailing for this format. But they've messed it up in so many ways, it's just given HD-DVD time to grow, time to mature, and most importantly time to bring the prices of their hardware down to prices that a lot of people won't feel bad about asking for an HD-DVD player for Christmas because of the price.

I honestly don't care who "wins," but I totally agree with this guy in the sense that Blu-Ray is almost to the point where it can't win. It should be miles ahead right now and the fact that it's not is probably making all those Blu-Ray studios wonder why they're sticking around.

I don't have any reason to think that Warner is going HD-DVD exclusive anytime soon, but if they do, that could pretty much be game over. Who's going to go into Blockbuster Video and care about Blu-Ray rentals when the only studios they can choose from are Sony, Fox, and Disney? HD-DVD would more or less have EVERYTHING else at that point. And IF Warner goes to HD-DVD, I can't see both Disney and Fox staying exclusive to Blu-Ray. One or the other would go neutral, at least.

Personally I think all the Warner rumors are nothing more than that. But if it happens, I think Blu-Ray has about a year left. Tops.
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post #12 of 48
8/28/07 at 12:58pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by RScottyL View Post

LOL.......


I don't hear a fat lady singing yet!

Question is, will you hear her in Dolby TrueHD or uncompressed multichannel PCM? And, will you be able to tell the difference?
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post #13 of 48
8/28/07 at 1:00pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by edved1 View Post

This is interesting...

I was one of the folks who thought that Blu-ray was going to eliminate HD-DVD and by this time HD-DVD would be toast. In fact, I was one of the analysts who helped convince Time Warner to hedge its bets and go with both formats. However, this was all before I knew the cost of the Blu-ray technology, and it was based on the assumption that Sony would never be stupid enough to price itself out of the game console market.



http://www.technewsworld.com/story/W...the-Week.xhtml

*Carefully removing a single grain of salt from the shaker with a pair of tweezers.*
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post #14 of 48
8/28/07 at 1:06pm
He was wrong once already predicting BD win in the past, he could be developing a pattern of being wrong again. I do think war is not over yet, that BD will have some aces up it's sleeve, besides usual BS and made up stories and the status quo of 2 formats competing for at least another year or so. As a matter of fact Sony's BD-R seems like great computer storage solution, so we may have HD-DVD as format of choice for pressed discs, slowly replacing DVD and BD as computer storage format and niche video format, something like UMD maybe but it will take some time before dust settles down.
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post #15 of 48
8/28/07 at 1:41pm
It's interesting that when the Paramount news came out the blu-fanboy club led by Wild Bill have the story of Fox/MGM releasing all kinds of titles in the future. This is consistent with how the blu ray clan has conducted their affairs: propaganda. This "war" has done nothing else but insure that the players either pony up or they'll be left behind and it's also made it clear that a Sony led charge is not the one you want to be backing - as Samsung found out.
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post #16 of 48
8/28/07 at 1:59pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by edved1 View Post

This is interesting...

I was one of the folks who thought that Blu-ray was going to eliminate HD-DVD and by this time HD-DVD would be toast. In fact, I was one of the analysts who helped convince Time Warner to hedge its bets and go with both formats. However, this was all before I knew the cost of the Blu-ray technology, and it was based on the assumption that Sony would never be stupid enough to price itself out of the game console market.



http://www.technewsworld.com/story/W...the-Week.xhtml

Thank you! interesting read.

Both could lose but HD is the only format with half a chance of replacing DVD, namely by being compatible with DVD, combos or however they figure it out.

"I think Paramount and DreamWorks saw this outcome and are trying to avoid it. While they did get an estimated $250 million incentive to move, that doesn't change the result. The studio execs likely realize if revenues don't improve, many of them may not be around by this time next year. Unemployment is a rather impressive motivator for change.

So, as of right now, I think it is reasonably obvious Blu-ray lost. The only question is whether HD-DVD will be allowed to win; and the decision may be up to Time Warner or Disney (NYSE: DIS) and not Sony or Toshiba Latest News about Toshiba.

If both lose, the long-term strategic fallout for Sony and Disney will be both impressive and memorable in terms of either company's influence going forward -- in fact, for Sony, I'm not sure things actually could get much worse. "
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post #17 of 48
8/28/07 at 2:01pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by mva5580 View Post

I think there are many good points in that article covered over a very short amount of space:

1) Sony pricing itself out of the market was about the DUMBEST thing I've seen in consoles in a long, long time. And their conceited act towards the market and just flat assuming that everyone would buy one no matter what was pathetic. For that attitude alone, they deserve any struggles they get.

2) The fact that neither of these formats could end up "winning." I think this is very realistic, and will most likely be the result. I don't see any chance that either one of these formats replaces dvd, at best it's a niche format for the audio/video buffs. I think HD-DVD/Blu-Ray can be compared to a high end receiver/surround sound speaker setup. Something that many people think is interesting and cool, but just not something they see being worth spending the money on. DVD's will be "good enough" for 8 out of 10 people who walk into Best Buy, Circuit City, or wherever.

3) Speculation about what's next with the studios. Will Warner go HD-DVD only? Disney neutral? Again, Sony's epic screw-ups are causing them problems that they just shouldn't have. The PS3, with Blu-Ray built-in, SHOULD have been easy sailing for this format. But they've messed it up in so many ways, it's just given HD-DVD time to grow, time to mature, and most importantly time to bring the prices of their hardware down to prices that a lot of people won't feel bad about asking for an HD-DVD player for Christmas because of the price.

I honestly don't care who "wins," but I totally agree with this guy in the sense that Blu-Ray is almost to the point where it can't win. It should be miles ahead right now and the fact that it's not is probably making all those Blu-Ray studios wonder why they're sticking around.

I don't have any reason to think that Warner is going HD-DVD exclusive anytime soon, but if they do, that could pretty much be game over. Who's going to go into Blockbuster Video and care about Blu-Ray rentals when the only studios they can choose from are Sony, Fox, and Disney? HD-DVD would more or less have EVERYTHING else at that point. And IF Warner goes to HD-DVD, I can't see both Disney and Fox staying exclusive to Blu-Ray. One or the other would go neutral, at least.

Personally I think all the Warner rumors are nothing more than that. But if it happens, I think Blu-Ray has about a year left. Tops.

Well said!

Thats why MS and Toshiba should invest everything they have into getting Warner to go exclusive to HD-DVD. The return will be instant and they could rap it up in a matter of months! HD-DVD needs this and without no one is going to win!
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post #18 of 48
8/28/07 at 2:06pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by mva5580 View Post

2) The fact that neither of these formats could end up "winning." I think this is very realistic, and will most likely be the result. I don't see any chance that either one of these formats replaces dvd, at best it's a niche format for the audio/video buffs. I think HD-DVD/Blu-Ray can be compared to a high end receiver/surround sound speaker setup. Something that many people think is interesting and cool, but just not something they see being worth spending the money on. DVD's will be "good enough" for 8 out of 10 people who walk into Best Buy, Circuit City, or wherever.

I agree. The average person goes into BB or CC and see that they can purchase something like: "Insignia® DVD Player with HD Upconversion for $49" The chances of spending the extra $$$ for a player and a new format for movies is very slim.
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post #19 of 48
8/28/07 at 2:42pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by mva5580 View Post

2) The fact that neither of these formats could end up "winning." I think this is very realistic, and will most likely be the result.

If that's true, then the studios are looking at continued declines in sales and chronic revenue losses for the foreseeable future. No, they badly need something to revitalize their industry and, if Sony has f***ed it up as badly as Mr. Enderle suggests, HD DVD is starting to look like the only vehicle in sight that has the ability to do that. Paramount analyzed the market over the course of a year or more and concluded that HD DVD has a future... Blu-ray does not. Warner, Disney and Fox must be, at the very least, considering this as well. The studios HAVE to come to a consensus in choosing a common HD format in order for the industry to move forward... there is too much at stake for them to stand idly by and just watch it swirl down the drain. IMHO, the Paramount decision is a strong indicator, if not a driver, of how this will all go down.
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post #20 of 48
8/28/07 at 2:48pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobRob View Post

The studios HAVE to come to a consensus in choosing a common HD format in order for the industry to move forward... there is too much at stake for them to stand idly by and just watch it swirl down the drain.

I don't get all this "both formats might die" doomsaying. Sure, market confusion could lead to neither of these particular formats being adopted (in the same way that it is currently curtailing their faster adoption), but how on earth could their be NOTHING left in their wake? Is the consumer demand for entertainment content on disc media going to suddenly dry up overnight because the Blu-Ray/HD DVD battle makes consumers tentative? Isn't this a bit like suggesting that if HBO files for bankruptcy protection, everyone will turn off their tvs?
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post #21 of 48
8/28/07 at 3:07pm
Anyone know what Bill...and I want to call him a shill, but I won't as that's apparently not allowed anymore, Hunt has to say about this just yet? I'd imagine he'll have both barrels loaded with some FUD response.
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post #22 of 48
8/28/07 at 3:12pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by spectator View Post

I don't get all this "both formats might die" doomsaying. Sure, market confusion could lead to neither of these particular formats being adopted

In which case... "both formats might die."

Quote:


but how on earth could their be NOTHING left in their wake? Is the consumer demand for entertainment content on disc media going to suddenly dry up overnight because the Blu-Ray/HD DVD battle makes consumers tentative?

What would be left in their wake is what we already have... SD DVD. Consumer demand is drying up, not necessarily because of a format war, but because SD DVDs are reaching a point of saturation and sales stagnation is the result. HD is the new kid in town... the one the studios are hoping will revitalize their industry.

Quote:


Isn't this a bit like suggesting that if HBO files for bankruptcy protection, everyone will turn off their tvs?

Uhh, you completely lost me there. HBO is a channel on a receiver... amongst many channels on the exact same receiver. It's not the same as competing formats at all.
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post #23 of 48
8/28/07 at 3:20pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobRob View Post

What would be left in their wake is what we already have... SD DVD. Consumer demand is drying up, not necessarily because of a format war, but because SD DVDs are reaching a point of saturation and sales stagnation is the result.

I think this suggestion is absurd! Is anyone here unsure that HD (in some delivery method) is the future of tv? It's certainly the future of broadcast and, thus, of consumer set manufacture. People are going to want to watch SOMETHING on tv. SOMETHING is going to fill the channel and why would it continue to be DVD indefinitely, once everyone has an HDTV? If these formats both die, there will be another consumer HD media disc before too long. Anything else just wouldn't make any sense at all. And I don't mean in a "feature for feature, Beta was better than VHS, so why didn't it win?" sort of way; I mean in an "up is down" sort of way.
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post #24 of 48
8/28/07 at 11:38pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by spectator View Post

I think this suggestion is absurd! Is anyone here unsure that HD (in some delivery method) is the future of tv? It's certainly the future of broadcast and, thus, of consumer set manufacture. People are going to want to watch SOMETHING on tv. SOMETHING is going to fill the channel and why would it continue to be DVD indefinitely, once everyone has an HDTV? If these formats both die, there will be another consumer HD media disc before too long. Anything else just wouldn't make any sense at all.

WHAT are you talking about?? I never said DVD would continue to fill the void indefinitely. But as far as there being "another consumer HD media disc before too long," dude, look at how long it took to get HD DVD from concept to production... we're talking several years to birth a new format.

Quote:


And I don't mean in a "feature for feature, Beta was better than VHS, so why didn't it win?" sort of way; I mean in an "up is down" sort of way.

Don't drink and post.
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post #25 of 48
8/28/07 at 11:44pm
The war is not over.

As of March 2007 just Sony Corp. in Japan had $10.9 BILLION dollars in cash on its balance sheet.

That is just Sony, there are many ohter members of the BDA. All huge companies like Dell, Apple, TDK, Hewlett-Packard, Pioneer, Panasonic and many more.

This war is a LONG way from being over.
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post #26 of 48
8/29/07 at 2:53am
Quote:
Originally Posted by cash70 View Post

I agree. The average person goes into BB or CC and see that they can purchase something like: "Insignia® DVD Player with HD Upconversion for $49" The chances of spending the extra $$$ for a player and a new format for movies is very slim.

That's true, but how much longer will it be before that $49 DVD Player is sitting next to a $99 or $79 or even $59 HD DVD player? Or perhaps J6P went into the store looking for the Star Trek TOS remaster for $150 and now he's looking at the Venture HD DVD player for $150; if he's already dropping $150 on software why not drop another $150 to play the HD side of that software?
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post #27 of 48
8/29/07 at 3:01am
Quote:


Originally Posted by fistofsouth
Or perhaps J6P went into the store looking for the Star Trek TOS remaster for $150 and now he's looking at the Venture HD DVD player for $150

J6P isn't going to get by the $150 price tag for Star Trek: TOS...

fitprod
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post #28 of 48
8/29/07 at 5:47am
Way too early to call it quits for either one.
However, if the sub150.00 players hit big in ,say, Walmart....
That would be a critical blow.

Chris.
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post #29 of 48
8/29/07 at 6:28am
Quote:
Originally Posted by GregApple View Post


As of March 2007 just Sony Corp. in Japan had $10.9 BILLION dollars in cash on its balance sheet.

Just Sony had that because that's the balance sheet showing how many BILLIONS they are in the hole from the PS3
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post #30 of 48
8/29/07 at 6:49am
This guy is an analyst and made a recommendation without knowing the hardware costs? I don't know about you but that's a pretty important parameter that is a necessity before making any recommendations. I say this guy is full of it claiming to be an analyst for TW. If he really was the TW execs that hired him should be fired and he should turn in his diploma.
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