Quote:
Originally Posted by amirm 
I would say it has done "wonders" relative to where we were
. You know, every article telling potential customers that they are too expensive and there is a format war.
I think a few things should happen:
1. Retailers really need to get in the game. The $99 effort was great but there needs to be more. I can't understand why retailers don't attempt to sell an HD player with every TV they sell. It should not be a hard sell at these prices. Heck, they are charging more for extended warranty which does nothing for the user when they take the TV home! (OK, so they make a lot more money there ). Or the thick cable. Or the expensive power strip.
2. Movie costs should come down. Problem we have is that we have not created a real market for these folks. Most titles lose money than make it. Someone has to solve the chicken and egg problem here. Low cost pricing for player cracks that nut. But the effect may take a while to materialize.
Note that studios should be able to get a premium over DVD. If they have less motivation to push the new formats.
3. We need a lot more movies. This is why I am not of the school of, "only release tier 0 movies or else." DVD world is not about tier 0. A few hundred movies just doesn't move a format like tens of thousands. Note that I am impressed with what we have given the small market. But ultimately, it will not be anywhere near enough until we get "mass" of titles on a shelf so that it is sagging. Anything less and it smells like a niche product so people stay away on principal.
4. Both format makers need to focus on winning customers away from DVD, not from each other. A tiny mention at the end of a TV add for a movie that says, "also available on HD DVD/BD" doesn't do justice. At some point, the HD version needs to take the lead: "Impressive high definition release with 6X the resolution and glorious sound plus interactivity to make your kids jealous and give up MySpace and in fine print, also available in DVD
5. We get all the reporters that keep wanting to write that there is a format war and remind them that, well, they have told that story 10000 times and saying it again, doesn't do any good and reinforces the very issue they say is bad for consumers. Instead, let's have them really use the formats for a few months and then write about how good it they are. If they keep doing this, we direct the energy that exists in this form and elsewhere, toward their blogs, letting me know that they are playing a role here and it ain't a good one. It is not like these articles are going to get the formats to merge at this point.
6. Have low cost dual format players to make the reporters above stop writing those articles.
7. Get the PC market in gear. Yes, we are guilty as the next to invest heavily in CE end of this. But we need to bring up the PC end in the next cycle (note: this is a personal wish and has nothing to do with any plans or lack thereof at Microsoft regarding this). Yes, PC users may not watch this stuff anymore than the next guy but having more of a presence in this advertising channel will be good. Toshiba is on this path but the rest are silent.
8. Take advantage of the other features of the formats not yet utilized such as managed copy. Digital distribution augmentation of the format. Electronic sell-through. Etc.
9. And advertizing campaign that really works for the formats. As an avid photographer and one who studies ads as a hobby, I have yet to see something that resonates with consumers. We have to find an easy to understand value proposition for users. Users don't understand resolution and the upsampling players have screwed up the use of the word HD and digital to say what these products do. And don't get me even started on sound. There is not a single average user who thinks there is something broken with DVD sound and they have all voted with their feet, going to below CD quality with their music.
10. OK, there must be a tenth thing but it was hard enough to do the above nine so there is not going to be one
.
I would say it has done "wonders" relative to where we were
. You know, every article telling potential customers that they are too expensive and there is a format war.I think a few things should happen:
1. Retailers really need to get in the game. The $99 effort was great but there needs to be more. I can't understand why retailers don't attempt to sell an HD player with every TV they sell. It should not be a hard sell at these prices. Heck, they are charging more for extended warranty which does nothing for the user when they take the TV home! (OK, so they make a lot more money there
). Or the thick cable. Or the expensive power strip.2. Movie costs should come down. Problem we have is that we have not created a real market for these folks. Most titles lose money than make it. Someone has to solve the chicken and egg problem here. Low cost pricing for player cracks that nut. But the effect may take a while to materialize.
Note that studios should be able to get a premium over DVD. If they have less motivation to push the new formats.
3. We need a lot more movies. This is why I am not of the school of, "only release tier 0 movies or else." DVD world is not about tier 0. A few hundred movies just doesn't move a format like tens of thousands. Note that I am impressed with what we have given the small market. But ultimately, it will not be anywhere near enough until we get "mass" of titles on a shelf so that it is sagging. Anything less and it smells like a niche product so people stay away on principal.
4. Both format makers need to focus on winning customers away from DVD, not from each other. A tiny mention at the end of a TV add for a movie that says, "also available on HD DVD/BD" doesn't do justice. At some point, the HD version needs to take the lead: "Impressive high definition release with 6X the resolution and glorious sound plus interactivity to make your kids jealous and give up MySpace and in fine print, also available in DVD
5. We get all the reporters that keep wanting to write that there is a format war and remind them that, well, they have told that story 10000 times and saying it again, doesn't do any good and reinforces the very issue they say is bad for consumers. Instead, let's have them really use the formats for a few months and then write about how good it they are. If they keep doing this, we direct the energy that exists in this form and elsewhere, toward their blogs, letting me know that they are playing a role here and it ain't a good one. It is not like these articles are going to get the formats to merge at this point.
6. Have low cost dual format players to make the reporters above stop writing those articles
.7. Get the PC market in gear. Yes, we are guilty as the next to invest heavily in CE end of this. But we need to bring up the PC end in the next cycle (note: this is a personal wish and has nothing to do with any plans or lack thereof at Microsoft regarding this). Yes, PC users may not watch this stuff anymore than the next guy but having more of a presence in this advertising channel will be good. Toshiba is on this path but the rest are silent.
8. Take advantage of the other features of the formats not yet utilized such as managed copy. Digital distribution augmentation of the format. Electronic sell-through. Etc.
9. And advertizing campaign that really works for the formats. As an avid photographer and one who studies ads as a hobby, I have yet to see something that resonates with consumers. We have to find an easy to understand value proposition for users. Users don't understand resolution and the upsampling players have screwed up the use of the word HD and digital to say what these products do. And don't get me even started on sound
. There is not a single average user who thinks there is something broken with DVD sound and they have all voted with their feet, going to below CD quality with their music.10. OK, there must be a tenth thing but it was hard enough to do the above nine so there is not going to be one
.Amirm thanks for all your feedback and insight into the HD market. I'm sure you have taught us all something in one way or another, I know I have learned alot and enjoyed reading your comments.
One item out of the 9 you listed I believe needs further insight to is # 2:
2. Movie costs should come down. Problem we have is that we have not created a real market for these folks. Most titles lose money than make it. Someone has to solve the chicken and egg problem here. Low cost pricing for player cracks that nut. But the effect may take a while to materialize.
Note that studios should be able to get a premium over DVD. If they have less motivation to push the new formats.
Amirm I believe studio's need to solve the chicken and egg problem since it is their DVD market that is currently being destroyed by the rampant copying going on in the market. How can the mass consumer market be persuaded to go HD when you can get new DVD releases anywhere from $3-$5 in todays market? In addition movies like "Lost" (entire year episodes) are also being sold for $12 and DVD quality is excellent from what I have seen.
The DVD market I'm sure has been making money for the studio's, but at the same time it is not growing but shrinking, which is mostly due to a lost of consumers who particpate in buying DVD movie copies. The studio's know what to do since policing those who copy and sell movies is not working. They are going to move to new markets with HD being only one market but for some reason they are not in a hurry to make the tranistion.
