I have seen shelf space continuously grow on the Blu side while shrinking on the red side for the past few months, even before the Warner announcement.
Common sense would tell you this is going to keep happening until red is no more, unless something dramatic happens, and it really doesn't look like it will. I'm as frustrated as the next guy about this, but being on one side doesn't keep me from being realistic and looking at the whole picture.
The BDA played a very aggressive game and it paid off, while the HD DVD group played the waiting game, and when the big play came around, they dropped the ball. From the BDA we got massive BOGOS, paid endcaps, TV adds throughout the year, which still run currently, while on the HD DVD side we got what? a big Q4 push that was too late to make a difference, or even meet hardware goals, even at it's strongest, the HD DVD advertisement campaign couldn't come close to that of Blu-Ray. Obviously you can see which side is pushing their format harder.
When Paramount went exclusive, Fox immediately issued a press release announcing a barrage of tittles, press releases from the BDA etc, again they were prepared for it, they knew ahead of time and did any type of damage control that had to be done. Warner caught the HD DVD promo group by surprise, but even after the dust settled, how did they react? Lukewarm press releases, Ken Graffeo took his sweet time to release any type of statement, they announced a mediocre amount of titles, and slashed the price of hardware, not good enough, is it too soon to see the results to this? Yes, but what else is left to do? HD DVD always had the price advantage, why would it make a difference now? especially since they just lost a studio, and BD players are also dropping in price.
I still think that HD DVD had the better product out of the door, but the unwillingness from the HD DVD group to put their cards on the table and risk as much as the BDA side lost it for them. IMO securing Disney as neutral studio early last year would have been more important than keeping Warner, Disney's catalogue titles coupled with lower-priced players aimed at families would have done wonders for the format.
As for me, I'll be waiting a few months to pick up a BD player, or a good dual format one.
-To Dave or any other insider willing to answer, what do you think would take for HD DVD to get back in the game? would this even be a possibility at this point?
-Why do you think the HD DVD promo group didn't try to go toe to toe with the BDA in terms of format push, of course they had a more affordable product, but IMO this wasn't enough for them to let the BDA run rampart all year long.