Originally Posted by brian1212
Can you come clean and tell us some things that you can freely admit are current shortcomings of HD DVD or the HD DVD strategy, and how/when you think they will be addressed?
I am not Amir, but I will put in my $.02. HD DVD's strategy has been for the past year to hang in there as long as possible for a number of reasons. The longer they stay around, the more players they sell in the marketplace. The more players in the marketplace, the smaller the PS3 gap becomes and the more discs that will be sold. This is where the economies of scale start to tilt in favor of HD DVD (cheaper and more efficient manufacturing). If they can get an installed base of stand alone players up near 1 million, then I think you will see more studio's go neutral, because in the end, they want to make money, regardless of their current format choice.
IMO, this is why Sony has been trying to deliver the knock out blow to HD DVD, because without competition, there would be less pressure on them to deliver the goods today (interactivity, a final player spec, etc.). With HD DVD still in the marketplace and not going anywhere, this puts a lot of pressure on the BDA to get with the program (which is good for consumers).
It will be interesting to see what happens when the low cost players hit the marketplace this winter. If they start to sell a boatload of players, there will certainly be a lot to write and talk about!
Now, as to the shortcomings of HD DVD, I think they are in a pretty good position right now. Their biggest weakness was only having Universal as their exclusive studio and if they lost that exclusivity, I think for the most part, that would have been the final nail in the coffin. With the addition of Paramount/Dreamworks as another exclusive studio, the pressure is now back on the BDA to deliver on all of their promises. But even with all of that, studio support is still an issue. I still think they need one more studio to come online to make things REALLY interesting!
Their other weakness was that Toshiba was the only maker of players, which is now changing. They have Onkyo releasing a high end player, the latest announcement of the Chinese player (via Canada), dual format players from LG and Samsung, and then the third generation players on the horizon gives consumer's more choices. I still think they need one other manufacturer of a single format player to give the perception of more CE manufacturers support.
To surmise though, this is still a horse race, despite what you may read here on AVS or other Internet forums. In the end, the only thing that will matter is which format can make the most money for the studios. It won't be about max bitrate, interactive features, etc. If one format looks like it can be much more profitable than the other, then the accountants will end up deciding the format war.