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Nielsen Prediction Thread for 9/6 (Predictions due Wednesday 9/4!)

post #1 of 192
Thread Starter 
This thread is only for posting your predictions. This is the third week I am tracking people's predictions. The first two weeks went very well and I hope it keeps going that well.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Please make your prediction with BD:HD even if you are going to predict HD DVD winning the week. Also, you are predicting the BD numbers, the HD DVD is implied. If I am confused, I will ask you for clarification if there is time before the deadline. Otherwise, you are stuck with how I read it.

This thread is not for the discussion of math, the advantages or disadvantages of either format, an analysis of the Nielsen numbers, any other source of sales figures (unless they are a reason you are making your prediction) or any insults.

The deadline for entries is 23:59 Eastern time Wednesday. You may change your prediction any time up until then.

Again, nothing but predictions and the odd, friendly comment on other people's predictions.

Nielsen contest entries for 09/07/2007

Code:
NAME                BD:HD
aristotles          70:30
nilsp               69:31
audiomixer          69:31
hammer99            69:31
Paulidan            68:32
briankmonkey        68:32
jkwest              67:33
HiddenDepth         67:33
UxiSXRD             67:33
opfreak             67:33
spacejamz           66:34
iontyre             65:35
LynxFX              65:35
raaj                65:35
TriptonUpman        64:36
lomax               64:36
QWK SVT             64:36
Rastor              64:36
todrigo             64:36
Woodshed            64:36
BuGsArEtAsTy        64:36
Will d s            64:36
Dreessen            63:37
fitprod             63:37
JE3146              63:37
GeorgeLV            63:37
crimsona            63:37
dad1153             63:37
MarekM              62:38
allargon            62:38
soremekun           62:38
frasersean          62:38
Azumi               62:38
ICBM99              62:38
MASrules            62:38
BrynRhys            62:38
Blu-Devil           62:38
donricouga          62:38
RDarrylR            62:38
Jim Morrison        61:39
TheLion             61:39
Ronin_R6            61:39
gtgray              61:39
JeffY               61:39
Baccusboy           61:39
boomster            61:39
Reginald Trent      60:40
tgraphics           60:40
rdjam               60:40
Winn                60:40
theflux             60:40
extra_hc            60:40
Ilka                60:40
manikin             60:40
Jiffylush           60:40
Topweasel           60:40
ottscay             60:40
TPigeon2006         60:40
Lee Stewart         60:40
Reylas              60:40
veniex              60:40
plazman             60:40
Everdog             60:40
anotheraviator      59:41
Kosty               59:41
shamus              59:41
Sketcha             59:41
whippersnapper      59:41
stefanpaulmayer     59:41
Enigma              59:41
Icemage             59:41
MichaelHDDVD        59:41
Neo1965             59:41
geko29              59:41
chirpie             59:41
Technicolor         59:41
trondmm             59:41
user4avsforum       59:41
Steverhcp02         58:42
gand41f             58:42
eightninesuited     58:42
Grubert             58:42
bboisvert           58:42
Noggin1980          58:42
online              57:43
aaronwt             57:43
nakedeye            57:43
Jonto81             57:43
Rob.D.inToronto     57:43
GmanAVS             56:44
hammie34            56:44
teacher_man99       56:44
cdzie1              55:45
mlankton            55:45
coolhand            54:46
Vov76               53:47
nfinity             52:48
David Scott         52:48
Pecker              50:50
Raxel               49:51
krylonone           49:51
aloneindark         48:52
SGRBSKIER           48:52
WiFi-Spy            48:52
darinp2             42:58
Shmack              40:60
blippy2005          40:60
New Releases included in this weeks numbers:

HD DVD:
Blades of Glory (Paramount)
Dawn of the Dead (2004) (Universal)
Heroes: Season One (Universal)
The Hurricane (2000) (Universal)
Notting Hill (Universal)

BD
None


For those new to the whole Nielsen thing:


The Nielsen numbers are a week delayed. In other words, the numbers that come out on August 31st will be for the period from August 20-August 26. Tuesday's releases (September 3) will not factor into the next set of numbers we get.
post #2 of 192
Thread Starter 
Nielsen contest results for 08/31/2007

Correct Nielsen/VideoScan ratio : 68:32

Code:
NAME                Guess   Attempts   Avg. Score
Baccusboy           68:32          1         0.00
nakedeye            68:32          1         0.00
darinp2             70:30          4         1.00
donricouga          68:32          3         1.00
BuGsArEtAsTy        69:31          1         1.00
hammie34            70:30          4         1.25
Woodshed            69:31          4         1.25
Jocky Wilson        71:29          3         1.33
bboisvert           70:30          4         1.50
JeffY               66:34          2         1.50
Everdog             72:28          4         1.75
dad1153             69:31          4         1.75
geko29              72:28          4         2.00
Reylas              69:31          4         2.00
Blu-Devil           72:28          3         2.00
veniex              72:28          3         2.00
nilsp               69:31          3         2.00
plazman             71:29          2         2.00
opfreak             70:30          2         2.00
Grubert             65:35          2         2.00
Icemage             72:28          4         2.25
Neo1965             72:28          4         2.25
MichaelHDDVD        70:30          4         2.25
BrynRhys            68:32          4         2.25
David Scott         67:33          4         2.25
Enigma              67:33          4         2.25
gtgray              66:34          4         2.25
Raxel               71:29          3         2.33
Lee Stewart         66:34          3         2.33
MASrules            71:29          4         2.50
aaronwt             65:35          4         2.50
todrigo             72:28          2         2.50
spacejamz           70:30          3         2.67
David F             69:31          3         2.67
blainehamilton      68:32          3         2.67
TPigeon2006         74:26          4         2.75
Wet1                72:28          4         2.75
edo9125             71:29          4         2.75
LynxFX              70:30          4         2.75
eightninesuited     66:34          4         2.75
UxiSXRD             75:25          4         3.00
WayneL              66:34          4         3.00
Topweasel           62:38          4         3.00
gand41f             75:25          3         3.00
Pecker              75:25          3         3.00
ottscay             71:29          3         3.00
stefanpaulmayer     67:33          2         3.00
iontyre             71:29          1         3.00
Rastor              73:27          4         3.25
HiddenDepth         72:28          4         3.25
Jiffylush           72:28          4         3.25
Leviathin25         72:28          4         3.25
whippersnapper      73:27          3         3.33
crimsona            70:30          3         3.33
GmanAVS             68:32          3         3.33
manikin             72:28          4         3.50
Sketcha             69:31          4         3.50
online              67:33          4         3.50
extra_hc            74:26          3         3.67
Ilka                71:29          3         3.67
QWK SVT             71:29          3         3.67
GeorgeLV            70:30          3         3.67
lomax               73:27          4         4.00
Azumi               72:28          4         4.00
ifmracin            72:28          4         4.00
Steverhcp02         73:27          3         4.00
TheLion             74:26          2         4.00
andyng              72:28          1         4.00
Ronin_R6            72:28          1         4.00
frasersean          72:28          4         4.25
fitprod             73:27          3         4.33
shamus              74:26          3         4.33
JE3146              60:40          3         4.33
theflux             70:30          4         4.50
jkwest              74:26          2         4.50
tomes               74:26          2         4.50
Winn                73:27          4         4.75
briankmonkey        65:35          4         4.75
wreckshop           75:25          4         5.00
allargon            75:25          3         5.00
ack_bk              72:28          3         5.00
soremekun           72:28          3         5.00
h0mi                62:38          3         5.00
nfinity             62:38          2         5.00
MarekM              75:25          4         5.25
rdjam               65:35          4         5.50
Jim Morrison        73:27          2         5.50
aristotles          73:27          3         6.67
Reginald Trent      60:40          2         7.00
Kosty               59:41          4         8.00
Mel2                76:24          1         8.00
anotheraviator      77:23          1         9.00
Dreessen            77:23          1         9.00
tsb                 63:37          2         9.50
rover2002           60:40          2         9.50
Shmack              55:45          3        12.00
Paulidan            81:19          1        13.00
byronhome           0:100          1        68.00
Perfect Picks:

Code:
2
BrynRhys  (3,4)

1
GmanAVS (4)
blainehamilton (4)
donricouga (4)
Baccusboy (4)
nakedeye (4)
shamus (3)
fitprod (3)
Steverhcp02 (3)
Ilka (3)
whippersnapper (3)
gand41f (3)
dad1153 (3)
Woodshed (3)
Rastor (2)
Pecker (2)
ICBM99 (2)
Jocky Wilson (2)
Darinp2 (1)
hammie34 (1)
bboisvert (1)

Weekly Stats

Code:
Week       # of                         Biggest Miss
#       Guesses         Perfect         High    Low
1       74              3               13      12
2       90              4               22      8
3       93              10              4       16
4       98              6               13      13* 
5       107             3               14      16

*outrageous guess ignored
post #3 of 192
Thread Starter 
(In)Frequently Asked Questions

1-How did this whole thing start?

People would post predictions in the main Nielsen thread Grubert was running. Eventually, Jiffylush kept track of them and it became a game. When the massive off topic posts and infighting made tracking predictions too hard, Jiffy looked to get out and I took over. I came up with a scoring system and started the weekly contest.

2- Why is it now a separate, weekly thread? (Or, This is a waste! Why even bother with this garbage?)

The fighting in Grubert's thread got the thread closed late in the first week. To allow people to still predict, I started a new thread with harsh rules on discussion. The mods made it clear that going OT in the new thread would not be tolerated. The game is currently getting over 90 entries per week. Those 90 posts would clutter up the main Nielsen thread.

As for the way this question is usually worded, it's fun! Also, if people want to be close, they need to take off their partisan glasses. People also make predictions for fun or, sometimes, to make other posters question their sanity.

3- How does scoring work?

This one actually is frequently asked.

a- A prediction is posted.
b- The real numbers come out.
c- For every percent the prediction is off, the poster gets a point.
d- The total number of points received over the course of several weeks is added up. This is what I call a person's score.
e- The score is divided by the number of weeks a person has entered guesses. This is called their average score. The average score is what is used to compare how well people are doing.

4- So what is the Nielsen Videoscan and Home Media Magazine?

This is what we use to get the actual sales percentages. Home Media Magazine (HMM) published the weekly Nielsen First Alert data every Friday.

5- What is the Nielsen First Alert data?

Nielsen, yes the same people who do TV ratings, track the sales of all video media. They do so by gathering the information from actual stores that sell DVDs, BD, HD DVD and other video formats. Last I heard, they cover approximately 40% of the video market. However, since much of the areas they do not cover are not selling high definition discs of any sort (food stores, convince stores, bulk discounters) they cover a larger percentage of the HD market.

6- Who do we know are included?

Major brick and mortar consumer electronics stores. Grubert has confirmed Amazon.com reports to them.

7- Who is not included?

Wal*Mart and affiliated stores (most notably Sam's Club).
post #4 of 192
audiomixer 69:31
post #5 of 192
68:32
post #6 of 192
I'm swinging way back down from the 70's this week. My prediction:

64:36
post #7 of 192
Bd 63 : 37 Hd
post #8 of 192
67:33
post #9 of 192
I will say.

61:39

On a side note, is there anything written up that discusses what retailers participate (or more importantly do not participate) in the Nielsen data?
post #10 of 192
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ronin_R6 View Post

I will say.

61:39

On a side note, is there anything written up that discusses what retailers participate (or more importantly do not participate) in the Nielsen data?

Post 3 will be used for some (In)Frequently Asked Questions like that. Expect it tonight.
post #11 of 192
55:45
post #12 of 192
Quote:
Originally Posted by Winn View Post

Post 3 will be used for some (In)Frequently Asked Questions like that. Expect it tonight.

Perfect, Thanks.
post #13 of 192
66:34 Bd
post #14 of 192
62:38 Bd
post #15 of 192
61:39 Bd
post #16 of 192
67:33, Blu-ray
post #17 of 192
Bd Hd
60:40
post #18 of 192
Bd Hd
59 41
post #19 of 192
61:39
post #20 of 192
57:43

?
post #21 of 192
60/40
post #22 of 192
Seems a little radical; but with all the HD DVD releases vs. 0 for BD; plus all the P/DW news accounted for; and some of the activity at Amazon I'm going to try: 59:41.
post #23 of 192
Quote:
Originally Posted by Winn View Post

The Nielsen numbers are a week delayed. In other words, the numbers that come out on August 31st will be for the period from August 20-August 26. Tuesday's releases (August 28) will not factor into the next set of numbers we get.

I'm not quite following. In your other post (thx by the way), you say:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Winn View Post

HD DVD:
Blades of Glory (Paramount)
Dawn of the Dead (2004) (Universal)
Heroes: Season One (Universal)
The Hurricane (2000) (Universal)
Notting Hill (Universal)

BD
None


I had understood they DO count in the Sept. 6 numbers. That would make sense given your previous example:

"The Nielsen numbers are a week delayed. In other words, the numbers that come out on August 31st will be for the period from August 20-August 26."

Anyways, if these releases are included for the Sept. 6 numbers, then I will guess 65:35.

EDIT:

Let's make that 64:36.
post #24 of 192
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by BuGsArEtAsTy View Post

I'm not quite following. In your other post (thx by the way), you say:


I had understood they DO count in the Sept. 6 numbers. That would make sense given your previous example:

"The Nielsen numbers are a week delayed. In other words, the numbers that come out on August 31st will be for the period from August 20-August 26."

Anyways, if these releases are included for the Sept. 6 numbers, then I will guess 65:35.

Whoops! Cut and pasted the wrong blurb.
post #25 of 192
60:40, Blu-ray.
post #26 of 192
Bd 59 - 41 Hd Dvd
post #27 of 192
57:43
post #28 of 192
Well lets go BD 64 : HD 36
post #29 of 192
49:51 in favor of HD-DVD, because of the new releases plus sale on amazon.com
post #30 of 192
I'll be brave with my first attempt and go 58:42
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