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Christmas 07 and beyond: discussing the future of the PS3  

post #1 of 46
Thread Starter 
We are fast approaching Christmas season 2007, and with the end of Oct/ beginning of November expected introduction of the 40 GB $399 PS3 and potential drop of other models, coupled with the imminent release of Ratchet and Clank, Uncharted and other exclusives, its time to discuss the significance of Christmas 2007 and the future of the PS3 through 2008 and beyond.

Right now things don't look good:

1)Wii is still selling out when its available, its $249

2)360 is getting a huge boost from Halo 3 and still has the perception of having a much richer gaming experience

3)PS3 is getting ready for ANOTHER price drop all within a year, is losing backward compatibility and Blu-Ray is floundering (as is HD-DVD)

The good news is

1)good games ARE coming (desperately needed).
2)The price drop will help
3)The hardware is rightfully reported as being rock solid and reliable

Personally though I don't see any reason right now why PS3 will finish any better than 3rd this Christmas. Which brings me to my next question. Does PS3 need to make a lot of noise this Christmas, or can it get by, and thrive in 2008 as the big guns finally bolster the games lineup and Home debuts? Will it be too late? Is Christmas 2007 the last gasp of a system destined to flounder into obscurity?
post #2 of 46
Honestly, no matter how well intentioned you are, this thread has fanboy war followed by thread closure written all over it.
post #3 of 46
Thread Starter 
I hope not. I love my PS3 and will defend it to the last post. I would hope fellow PS3 owners can discuss this without it devolving into a problem, but I know the iron fist around here likes to lock the adults out of otherwise interesting and important discussion, so who knows.
post #4 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by macd23 View Post

I hope not. I love my PS3 and will defend it to the last post. I would hope fellow PS3 owners can discuss this without it devolving into a problem, but I know the iron fist around here likes to lock the adults out of otherwise interesting and important discussion, so who knows.

Has nothing to do with how adult or interesting the PS3 owners want to make the conversation. A thread like this is like honey to 360 fanboys. Bottom line is it will inevitably devolve into fanboy rubbish. Trust me.
post #5 of 46
The Wii is a whole other market really. And it's tough to compare the 360 (2nd year) to the PS3 (1st year) at this point. Frankly it would be pathetic for Microsoft to not have a richer gaming experience with a year's head start. I mean, it's a whole year. It took the 360 a while to get the games out too.

Honestly, I think the PS3 is doing great. Once 08 starts rolling around all 3 consoles will have a great catalog of games.
post #6 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by macd23 View Post

We are fast approaching Christmas season 2007, and with the end of Oct/ beginning of November expected introduction of the 40 GB $399 PS3 and potential drop of other models, coupled with the imminent release of Ratchet and Clank, Uncharted and other exclusives, its time to discuss the significance of Christmas 2007 and the future of the PS3 through 2008 and beyond.

Right now things don't look good:

1)Wii is still selling out when its available, its $249

2)360 is getting a huge boost from Halo 3 and still has the perception of having a much richer gaming experience

3)PS3 is getting ready for ANOTHER price drop all within a year, is losing backward compatibility and Blu-Ray is floundering (as is HD-DVD)

The good news is

1)good games ARE coming (desperately needed).
2)The price drop will help
3)The hardware is rightfully reported as being rock solid and reliable

Personally though I don't see any reason right now why PS3 will finish any better than 3rd this Christmas. Which brings me to my next question. Does PS3 need to make a lot of noise this Christmas, or can it get by, and thrive in 2008 as the big guns finally bolster the games lineup and Home debuts? Will it be too late? Is Christmas 2007 the last gasp of a system destined to flounder into obscurity?


Well, Sony is pretty big company so I'm sure they'll be alright. PS4 may come out sooner if the PS3 won't get it done.

The Price drops will help, as will continued HDTV penatration in the homes. Writing them off in X-mas 2007 is premature. We'll have to wait till at least 2009 to see if the PS3 truely is a failure.
post #7 of 46
The PS3 will be just fine. Nobody can deny that there's huge potential locked in that box. Blu-ray, HDMI 1.3, the CELL... if the developers decide to take advantage of it, we'll see some amazing things. Plus, eventually there will be more buzz for the PSP compatibility. Anyone who has played with that knows how fricken cool it is. C'mon, this thing is still a baby in it's lifecycle, all the fanboy arguments don't mean a damn thing in the long run.
post #8 of 46
Sony themselves said Christmas 2007 is not a make or break holiday season, they are looking towards 2008.

Anyway, if i want to discuss the future of the ps3, why does it need based on comparing it to systems i don't care about, or a price I already paid?

The future discussion most of the system owners want to hear about is what possibilities might be opened up through firmware, and the exciting games coming out.

Personally, I am looking forward to the remote play firmware upgrade where i can turn my ps3 on from anywhere. Remote play is a huge feature that my friends see as a system seller for both psp and ps3 (it convinced me to get a psp). I am also hoping sony keeps exploring other innovative capabilities for the system and brings them to north america (not just asia like so many other cool toys)

anyone else have any features they are looking forward to?
post #9 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tandr View Post

Anyway, if i want to discuss the future of the ps3, why does it need based on comparing it to systems i don't care about, or a price I already paid?
?

QFT
post #10 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by macd23 View Post


...Right now things don't look good:

1)Wii is still selling out when its available, its $249

2)360 is getting a huge boost from Halo 3 and still has the perception of having a much richer gaming experience

3)PS3 is getting ready for ANOTHER price drop all within a year, is losing backward compatibility and Blu-Ray is floundering (as is HD-DVD)

The good news is...

Those three points are the good news unless you are writing a report for Sony. The Wii and 360 are great for the consumer and their success will keep Sony on their toes trying to offer better and better experiences in their games, accessories and PSN (updates, complete games, Home, demos, etc.)
post #11 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by macd23 View Post

1)Wii is still selling out when its available, its $249

Right now it's serving an entirely different market from the 360 & PS3, so I'm not sure a direct comparison is fair. It's a cheaper, non-HD console with a unique control scheme that's targeted at the casual gamer.

Quote:


2)360 is getting a huge boost from Halo 3 and still has the perception of having a much richer gaming experience

It has the larger installed base, so it keeps getting better versions of multiplatform games sooner. It also has more leverage to get big-name exclusives. This is a problem, but not an insurmountable one.

Quote:


3)PS3 is getting ready for ANOTHER price drop all within a year, is losing backward compatibility and Blu-Ray is floundering (as is HD-DVD)

Only the low-end PS3 is losing BC, and that's a sensible strategic choice when the market feedback is that the console is too damned expensive. Offering a stripped down version in the same price range that the 360 has seen success with (and that offers more value for the money than the 360 Elite) is a smart move. People who still want BC and memory card slots can opt for the higher-priced model, while those who just want a basic console for an acceptable price can now consider the 40GB model.

As for the HD disc formats "floundering", I think that's just empty punditry on your part. They're not seeing the same kind of explosive growth that DVD did, but that's to be expected, because they only offer an incremental increase in quality (unlike VHS->DVD or cassette->CD), and that increase is only available to people with HDTVs. HDTV adoption is currently exploding, though, so there's huge potential on the horizon -- and if people become aware that the PS3 offers built-in HD movie playback and the 360 doesn't, that could become a big selling point for people who are upgrading to HD home theaters.

Blu-Ray is also crushing HD-DVD by most metrics, and if Toshiba's current bribery campaign fails to gain traction within the next year, and no one releases a cheap hybrid player (Blu-Ray & HD-DVD) within the same timeframe, I think you can kiss HD-DVD goodbye. And if Blu-Ray becomes the de facto HD disc standard, the PS3 will have gained a key advantage.

Quote:


Does PS3 need to make a lot of noise this Christmas, or can it get by, and thrive in 2008 as the big guns finally bolster the games lineup and Home debuts?

The PS3 needs to be competitive this Christmas, but no one expects it to close the gap with the Wii and 360 this year. As long as it sells comparably to the 360 this season, it won't be a failure. It's already sold close to the initial PS2 and 360 numbers within the same post-launch timeframe, so there's no reason to think the ship is sinking yet.

Christmas 2008 is going to be very important, though. If the PS3 doesn't have some really killer exclusive games, and isn't getting multiplatform games being released day-and-date with the 360 versions at comparable or superior quality by then, Sony's going to be in huge trouble.

- Jer
post #12 of 46
Considering how well the ps3 has been selling despite having few quality games and a steep price point, I'm not too worried about it's future. The $399 ps3 should help boost sales quite a bit, especially with R&C5, GT5: Prologue, and enticing new IPs like Uncharted and Haze releasing alongside it this holiday season.

Come 2008, the ps3 will really pick up steam. It has games from several major franchises coming out. The MGS, FF, GT, and Tekken series all have a history of selling 4 mil. + of each main title on a console, and next year the ps3 is getting MGS4, Tekken 6, GT5, and FFXIII. Every GT game has outsold Halo 2, and look at what Halo 3 managed to do for the 360. The Tekken series is also the most popular fighting series after Super Smash Bros. as shown by the inferior sales of it's competitors: Soul Calibur, Virtua Fighter, and Dead or Alive. Final Fantasy, well, that speaks for itself. It is often considered the king of JRPGs, and each main FF game sels at least 5 mil., often breaking the 8 mil. mark. MGS4, however, is the main title out of those four that i'm looking forward to, and there are millions of others just like me.

In addition to these "system sellers", there are many new IPs hitting the ps3 next year, like Level 5's White Knight Story, Sucker Punch's Infamous, and Media Molecule's LittleBigPlanet, the latter of which could meet the success of titles like the Sims. It probably won't, but I think it will deserve it. :P

The plethora of titles coming out next year, combined with a $399 price point (which could be lower by Holiday 2008), should help the ps3 sell very well throughout the year. I personally think the ps3 will outsell the 360 by a good margin next year, since the only major competition they will face from the 360 is Ninja Gaiden 2 and possibly Fable 2, but neither franchise has a history of selling that well.

The Wii, however, will continue dominating the competition until at least 2009, and possibly the entire generation.
post #13 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by jhaines View Post

Right now it's serving an entirely different market from the 360 & PS3, so I'm not sure a direct comparison is fair. It's a cheaper, non-HD console with a unique control scheme that's targeted at the casual gamer.


It has the larger installed base, so it keeps getting better versions of multiplatform games sooner. It also has more leverage to get big-name exclusives. This is a problem, but not an insurmountable one.


Only the low-end PS3 is losing BC, and that's a sensible strategic choice when the market feedback is that the console is too damned expensive. Offering a stripped down version in the same price range that the 360 has seen success with (and that offers more value for the money than the 360 Elite) is a smart move. People who still want BC and memory card slots can opt for the higher-priced model, while those who just want a basic console for an acceptable price can now consider the 40GB model.

As for the HD disc formats "floundering", I think that's just empty punditry on your part. They're not seeing the same kind of explosive growth that DVD did, but that's to be expected, because they only offer an incremental increase in quality (unlike VHS->DVD or cassette->CD), and that increase is only available to people with HDTVs. HDTV adoption is currently exploding, though, so there's huge potential on the horizon -- and if people become aware that the PS3 offers built-in HD movie playback and the 360 doesn't, that could become a big selling point for people who are upgrading to HD home theaters.

Blu-Ray is also crushing HD-DVD by most metrics, and if Toshiba's current bribery campaign fails to gain traction within the next year, and no one releases a cheap hybrid player (Blu-Ray & HD-DVD) within the same timeframe, I think you can kiss HD-DVD goodbye. And if Blu-Ray becomes the de facto HD disc standard, the PS3 will have gained a key advantage.


The PS3 needs to be competitive this Christmas, but no one expects it to close the gap with the Wii and 360 this year. As long as it sells comparably to the 360 this season, it won't be a failure. It's already sold close to the initial PS2 and 360 numbers within the same post-launch timeframe, so there's no reason to think the ship is sinking yet.

Christmas 2008 is going to be very important, though. If the PS3 doesn't have some really killer exclusive games, and isn't getting multiplatform games being released day-and-date with the 360 versions at comparable or superior quality by then, Sony's going to be in huge trouble.

- Jer

I think the format war is slowing HD media adoption more than anything else. DVD may have "exploded" compared to HD DVD and Blu-Ray, but people had no reason not to buy it, other than price or convenience.
post #14 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by dpe8598 View Post

QFT

Sales are a key to a console's strength. More sales = more third party support = more games = more sales. It's a cycle, and the 360 got a quite a head start on the the ps3, taking away from the ps3's third party support.

The ps3 needs to pick up a lot of steam or 3rd parties will continue the trend of releasing crappy ports on the ps3 and possibly even making games 360 exclusive, thus denying us of the games completely.

Sure, Sony's first and second party developers are great, but they are not enough. Do you want game droughts akin to the N64? That could happen by 2009-2010 if sales don't improve now.
post #15 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by makingmusic476 View Post

Sales are a key to a console's strength. More sales = more third party support = more games = more sales. It's a cycle, and the 360 got a quite a head start on the the ps3, taking away from the ps3's third party support.

The ps3 needs to pick up a lot of steam or 3rd parties will continue the trend of releasing crappy ports on the ps3 and possibly even making games 360 exclusive, thus denying us of the games completely.

Sure, Sony's first and second party developers are great, but they are not enough. Do you want game droughts akin to the N64? That could happen by 2009-2010 if sales don't improve now.

If you believe mega sales are so important, then talk about it somewhere else. At first i liked the debate about the sales disparity between consoles. But all the speculation by armchair ceo's, who's only brush with financials is when they take their taxes to H&R block, is really pissing me off!

I do not care how many people bought apples or how many people bought oranges. Compare them all you want, but I bought an orange and it does what i want, and will continue to get better at it through firmware updates
post #16 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tandr View Post

If you believe mega sales are so important, then talk about it somewhere else. At first i liked the debate about the sales disparity between consoles. But all the speculation by armchair ceo's, who's only brush with financials is when they take their taxes to H&R block, is really pissing me off!

I do not care how many people bought apples or how many people bought oranges. Compare them all you want, but I bought an orange and it does what i want, and will continue to get better at it through firmware updates

Talk about it somewhere else? You didn't have to click on the thread. :|
post #17 of 46
This thread will self destruct in 5, 4, 3, 2, 1....

Honestly, can you not read the stickies on top of the page? Good grief.
post #18 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by makingmusic476 View Post


Sure, Sony's first and second party developers are great, but they are not enough. Do you want game droughts akin to the N64? That could happen by 2009-2010 if sales don't improve now.

Actually it's very unlikely. Next gen games cost a bundle to make, so publishers want to release them to as many platforms as possible. You will see most next gen games being 360, PS3 and PC because they are in the same ball park for power. So far the 360 got some exclusives because the PS3 was not even out (Dead Rising, GRAW, Lost Planet, etc.). Some of these made their way over as bad ports (FEAR, SC, etc.), but more recently the PS3 has been getting better ports or parallel development (DiRT, GRAW2, RS:V, UT3).

There is also the learning curve, most dev houses will be on their second gen PS3 games soon and quality should go up. This should be reinforced with better Sony support and tools (see DiRT developer interviews).
post #19 of 46
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by makingmusic476 View Post

Sales are a key to a console's strength. More sales = more third party support = more games = more sales. It's a cycle, and the 360 got a quite a head start on the the ps3, taking away from the ps3's third party support.

The ps3 needs to pick up a lot of steam or 3rd parties will continue the trend of releasing crappy ports on the ps3 and possibly even making games 360 exclusive, thus denying us of the games completely.

Sure, Sony's first and second party developers are great, but they are not enough. Do you want game droughts akin to the N64? That could happen by 2009-2010 if sales don't improve now.

And this is why these topics matter, to answer one or two who asked why we like to discuss them. The whole "play, have fun and be quiet" is a copout.....Playing great games depends on the strength of the console, and the strength of the console depends on having great games available.......I am optomistic in general, because I believe the PS2 is financing the PS3 right now, and Sony will not give up on its domination of the last two generations easily....They've certainly made a lot of mistakes though.
post #20 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by makingmusic476 View Post

Do you want game droughts akin to the N64? That could happen by 2009-2010 if sales don't improve now.

Wow I can't believe how many levels of wrong are in that prediction.

As others have said, with the cost of game development being what it is nearly all third-party games are multi-platform. Some might be temporarily exclusive, and some might be slightly more optimized for one system or the other, but 360-PS3 games are pretty much equivalent when you're talking third-party games. And third-party games make up the vast majority of games being released.

The N64/Playstation matchup was staggeringly different for staggeringly obvious hardware reasons. The CD-Cartridge port job was much more time-consuming and expensive than DVD-BluRay transitions, especially with the shared development tools common to both next-gen platforms. Add to that the higher cost of producing cartridges which meant smaller profit margins, and there were major reasons for third-parties to shun the N64. None of those problems exist for the PS3.

It's simply impossible for there ever again to be a drought like the N64 experienced, with the one dominant platform being so vastly different and nearly all third parties adopting the cheaper, easier Playstation platform. Despite what so many AVS fanboys seem to want to insist are major hardware differences, the 360 and PS3 are pretty damn close technology-wise. Over time I think the games developed exclusively for the PS3 will look a bit better than the games developed exclusively for the 360, but it's so minor it's never going to have as big an impact as what happened to the N64.
post #21 of 46
Thread Starter 
I agree that most games will be multi-plat because of cost reasons, which is great......But do we really want everything designed for PC or 360 and ported to PS3?

My friend is a developer for Monolith and he is helping develop a new game for all 3 now, but as usual the 360 is the lead system and the PS3 will get another port, and no doubt a sloppy one.

Sales matter. Period.
post #22 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by instantpop View Post

This thread will self destruct in 5, 4, 3, 2, 1....

Honestly, can you not read the stickies on top of the page? Good grief.

Why waste everyone's time with a post like this? This topic is of interest to PS3 owners and it looks like it's spurring some intelligent discussion thus far.
post #23 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by impetigo View Post

Why waste everyone's time with a post like this? This topic is of interest to PS3 owners and it looks like it's spurring some intelligent discussion thus far.

It's basically the history. This type of discussion is of interest to many people but unfortunately what has generally happened in the past 2 years is that a few people who can't separate their ego from a console and have all the business and finance education of a 3rd grader lose their ****, start blasting each other, and then the thread gets locked. It wasn't until recently that a thread like this wouldn't have been locked immediately as soon as a mod saw it, and for a long while they spent daily time in here cleaning up after the teenie-bopper types who made this their resident gaming forum. So discussion like this has been disallowed. I will say previous to late 2005 this forum was pretty damn good for this sort of discussion with a lot of knowledge.

Not to further clutter the thread but that's really why a few people have chimed in with posts similar to that one. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Kyser didn't lock it the moment he saw it. Then again, if everyone behaves like a normal human being....
post #24 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by macd23 View Post

Sales matter. Period.

Can publisher afford to throw out sloppy ports that don't sell? The numbers may work out when the install base is 1m and the game competition is very light, but will they at 6m, 8m+? I doubt it, as we can see from the difference between FEAR & Splinter Cell Conviction vs RS:V & GRAW2. Put in the spit and polish and they will buy your game.
post #25 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tandr View Post

Personally, I am looking forward to the remote play firmware upgrade where i can turn my ps3 on from anywhere. Remote play is a huge feature that my friends see as a system seller for both psp and ps3 (it convinced me to get a psp). I am also hoping sony keeps exploring other innovative capabilities for the system and brings them to north america (not just asia like so many other cool toys)

Anyone know when that feature is coming out. It is important to some of my friends on the edge to buy the PSP.
post #26 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by Protopet View Post

Anyone know when that feature is coming out. It is important to some of my friends on the edge to buy the PSP.

Or, just always leave your PS3 on. That's what I do. Set it to remote play, then leave it Folding when I'm not using it. Constantly available media, and Folding protiens for science, everybody wins
post #27 of 46
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisFB View Post

It's basically the history. This type of discussion is of interest to many people but unfortunately what has generally happened in the past 2 years is that a few people who can't separate their ego from a console and have all the business and finance education of a 3rd grader lose their ****, start blasting each other, and then the thread gets locked. It wasn't until recently that a thread like this wouldn't have been locked immediately as soon as a mod saw it, and for a long while they spent daily time in here cleaning up after the teenie-bopper types who made this their resident gaming forum. So discussion like this has been disallowed. I will say previous to late 2005 this forum was pretty damn good for this sort of discussion with a lot of knowledge.

Not to further clutter the thread but that's really why a few people have chimed in with posts similar to that one. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Kyser didn't lock it the moment he saw it. Then again, if everyone behaves like a normal human being....



Yet these threads are only filled with posts like yours.....I have yet to see much of this immature fanboy flaming you guys always speak of, but rest assured you'll be here to remind us of it...................This thread is doing great and should be left alone. This is important material for adult minded PS3s owners and fans.................If you aren't interested in discussing this stuff move along. If it turns into flamefest then of course close it, but there is no need to do so preemptively.................though I have no doubt the heavy handidness of the past will continue and it will be locked without warning.
post #28 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by macd23 View Post

.....though I have no doubt the heavy handidness of the past will continue and it will be locked without warning.

Yeah, stick it to the MAN!

You don't see the threads that degrade into flame-fests because Kyser and his boys are on it, which is the way we like it. Give it a few more posts until someone like Frank J. Cone shows up, then the lock will all but be guaranteed.

Personally, I don't understand why people even try to have these discussions on this type of forum. You simply cannot do it without having context or tone applied to your rationale. You can't convey that on a messageboard, therefore it always devolves and gets schoolgirl fight ugly.

And to those who say to us "move on if we're not interested." That's the problem. Those who aren't interested do move on and don't return to the forum because it starts to get a reputation of being a place where there's nothing more to offer but a bunch of armchair analysts pretending like they know what they are talking about. So all the good people who post stuff we DO give a crap about leave because of threads like this that inevitably get locked or deleted and then someone else decides to start yet ANOTHER one.

Why people can't understand that all 3 consoles offer great things to a wide demographic of people is beyond me. Nobody is going anywhere. None of the major big 3 video game console companies is going to "lose" anything. They've all gone through hard times. They've all gone through good times. N64 was a low light. 360 has a failure rate problem and Microsoft still isn't making money. PS3 has had a rocky start. Everybody knows that. Leave it alone.
post #29 of 46
Thread Starter 
OK. Ironic that the only arguing thats gone on is because you and the others have come in to police the thread in the curious absense of the mods. Don't worry I'm sure you'll get your wish and they'll promptly lock it because we "can't handle this discussion" before anything actually happens.

Until then I look forward to hearing others opinions and thoughts on the PS3 now, and through the holiday season.


ps: discussions would be non existant if we left them purely to "analysts" and "experts" who are just as likely to be wrong on many issues anyway. This is a place for opinions. If you don't agree then debate them with reasons why. Simply saying none of us know what we are talking about without offering up reasons you disagree is yet another copout.
post #30 of 46
Quote:
Originally Posted by macd23 View Post

OK. Ironic that the only arguing thats gone on is because you and the others have come in to police the thread in the curious absense of the mods. Don't worry I'm sure you'll get your wish and they'll promptly lock it because we "can't handle this discussion" before anything actually happens.

Until then I look forward to hearing others opinions and thoughts on the PS3 now, and through the holiday season.


ps: discussions would be non existant if we left them purely to "analysts" and "experts" who are just as likely to be wrong on many issues anyway. This is a place for opinions. If you don't agree then debate them with reasons why. Simply saying none of us know what we are talking about without offering up reasons you disagree is yet another copout.

Not a copout and not really an argument. This is indeed a place for discussion, but it's clearly noted by two stickies at the top of the forum that THIS kind of discussion isn't welcome here because of what always happens. History repeating and all that....

Here are the links to those TWO STICKIES in case you can't seem to find them:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=785982

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=610130
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