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To be desperate or not to be desperate? That is the question....

post #1 of 72
10/15/07 at 9:05am
Thread Starter 
I have always believed that the prices of the movies themselves have driven people away from HDM far more so than player costs. In addition to poor marketing by Sony, I believe this is a big reason why the PS3 has not resulted in a significantly higher lead than 2:1 YTD movie sales. People will see that their favorite movie cost $10 - $20 on dvd, while it sales for $30 on bluray (or in some cases $35 on HD-DVD) and will decide in their mind that the cost difference is not worth the visual upgrade.

So this week the BDA (more than likely as a way to minimize the impact of Transformers) is offering movies at significantly cheaper costs as well as BOGO to see if they can spark more interest. In my opinion this is the smartest decision to come out of the BDA yet.

Help me understand why is it that now that the BDA offers a very nice firesale this week that it is considered desperate, but the fact that Toshiba is in many places selling their players at around $250 is NOT considered desperate?

On the HD-DVD side, to me it seems like it would be a REALLY smart move for their side to offer a similar movie firesale and in my opinion it could be an even bigger move on their part because cheaper players with cheaper media could SWAY some fence sitting consumers.

HD-DVD has long maintained that price is the deciding factor. A BOGO sale would be a way to prove it.

MODs, I accidently posted this same thing in the bluray section when I meant to post it here, so please delete the one in the bluray section.
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post #2 of 72
10/15/07 at 9:18am
Simple! It was the BD fanboys who ORIGINALLY claimed that Toshiba was desparate when they offered 5 "free" movies with their players. Then Toshiba was again "desparate" when they put the A2 on sale with more "free" movies. I personally don't remember any BD fan accusing Sony or Panasonic of being desparate when they slashed prices and offered "free" movies with the purchase of a player. I would think that HD DVD fans accusing BD of being desparate is simply a means of pointing out a little hyprocrisy by BD fans - although it does run both ways.

Cheers,

Grant

FORMAT NEUTRAL: My obversation - if HD DVD isn't over-achieving then BD must be under-achieving!
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post #3 of 72
10/15/07 at 9:19am
before amazon offered the BOGO sale, the sales rank was like this:
1. Transformers
2. Planet Earth (HD DVD)
3-10. Blu-ray titles

after the BOGO sale:
1. Transformers
2-10. Blu-ray titles included in BOGO sale.

hopefully the studios can take this as a sign that if the prices is good, people will buy. i'm especially talking to Fox, whom i would have bought 2 to 3 titles from if it weren't for their sky-high prices. instead i bought none, i might have to bite when iD4 comes out. they killed Die Hard box set when they decided to release the 4th one on BD as PG13.
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post #4 of 72
10/15/07 at 9:20am
Rumor is that Paramount was paid $150mil.
I think the BDA should "pay" that to the consumer ($150mil) and offer instant rebates on all new software purchases of $10 and hardware rebates of $50.
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post #5 of 72
10/15/07 at 9:26am
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by soremekun View Post

Rumor is that Paramount was paid $150mil.
I think the BDA should "pay" that to the consumer ($150mil) and offer instant rebates on all new software purchases of $10 and hardware rebates of $50.

Honestly I dont think this is a terrible idea.
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post #6 of 72
10/15/07 at 9:27am
I think both sides are desperate, although I see nothing but benefit from it for consumers since there's deals to be had that otherwise probably wouldn't be were the formats not struggling. Of course, the main competition is a medium (SD DVD) that's basically stuck in a permanent firesale, so measures like this are needed.

I agree that if a movie isn't a huge new release (ala 300, Transformers, CR, etc.), then movie price is EVERYTHING.
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post #7 of 72
10/15/07 at 10:17am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Merrick97 View Post


Help me understand why is it that now that the BDA offers a very nice firesale this week that it is considered desperate, but the fact that Toshiba is in many places selling their players at around $250 is NOT considered desperate?

Well, the principal argument seems to be money, as in loss.

The Toshiba players sold at $250 (Msrp $299) are not likely to be a loss (or if so, a very small one) for Toshiba, while it is fairly certain that selling Blu Ray Media for $10 or less per title (retail) is almost certainly due to the BDA writing checks to the retailers in order to cover the lost revenue from the discounted disks.

How large those checks may be will depend entirely on just how many disks are sold overall.

Right now, the BDA's BOGO promotion is viable due to the relatively low volume of overall HD media sales, and may only end up costing the BDA a few hundred thousand dollars (which really isn't all that desperate to me) however, as the install base for the players and attachment rates continue to increase promotions like this will become more and more expensive and will almost certainly cease once the weekly sales numbers start crossing the one million mark.

However, as the format war will ultimately be decided by hardware installed and not media sales, the BOGO offers are a very short term strategy designed to simply make one set of figures look good (Neilsen ratings) and the offer does not represent a fully realistic picture to the potential consumer since the media price reductions are not representing a true image of permanent overall media price differences between the formats.

Ultimately, the BDA's BOGO offer is simply an attempt to gain high enough sales this week to allow them to have some ammunition to reply to the media with when HD's Transformers release handily wins the week.

So IMO, the BOGO offer isn't desperate but simply a marketing strategy which has limited repeatability due to the ever increasing hardware sales base.

Now what will be interesting to see is just who starts throwing claims of "Desperation" around in a few weeks if a similar promotion is offered on HD DVDs to counter Spider-Man 3.
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post #8 of 72
10/15/07 at 10:29am
It's a good move on the BDA's part. They fear that HD DVD might outsell BR next week. That would kill a lot of their talking points and credibility. "How can HD DVD be dead when it just out sold BR?"

So my question is who is paying for the BOGO offer? Is it the Studios? No way. It's the BDA buying sales. Both sides do it, but the BDA is taking it to a new level to slow down Transformers. Again, it's a good move on their part.
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post #9 of 72
10/15/07 at 10:39am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Merrick97 View Post

MODs, I accidently posted this same thing in the bluray section when I meant to post it here, so please delete the one in the bluray section.

Actually this firesale has about 6 different threads going as it is. This is probably the 3rd here in the general software discussion section...

Seems more a promo thread at this point... -><-
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post #10 of 72
10/15/07 at 1:09pm
Why make such a big deal over this BOGO sale? It's about the 6th time such a sale sponsored by the BDA has ran in 2007. They've run them at BB and Fry's before, and they also offered a whopping 40 BD titles at 50% off on amazon some months ago. That's what happens when 90% of the players are game consoles and the owners need incentive to buy movies. Kinda puts that whole attach rate thing in perspective.
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post #11 of 72
10/15/07 at 1:14pm
If the BD titles only cost $3 to actually produce, then who's losing money selling them at $10 each? Perhaps it's not an issue of subsidization but merely the fact that we're getting too used to paying large amounts for a piece of mass-produced plastic. For either format, merely breaking even (and I doubt anyone but Sony with the PS3 is not making at least some profit on all of this) on all your HD materials is not a bad idea at all if it means you get to "win" and then go back to charging whatever you want for your players and discs, with full royalties stacked on top.
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post #12 of 72
10/15/07 at 1:28pm
You don't have to give your product away if the customer perceives value.
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post #13 of 72
10/15/07 at 1:31pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by IcemanDallas View Post

You don't have to give your product away if the customer perceives value.

HD DVD add-on with 9 free movies, is that deal still going on? Not quite giving it away but maybe soon
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post #14 of 72
10/15/07 at 1:40pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by luclin999 View Post

Well, the principal argument seems to be money, as in loss.

The Toshiba players sold at $250 (Msrp $299) are not likely to be a loss (or if so, a very small one) for Toshiba, while it is fairly certain that selling Blu Ray Media for $10 or less per title (retail) is almost certainly due to the BDA writing checks to the retailers in order to cover the lost revenue from the discounted disks.

How large those checks may be will depend entirely on just how many disks are sold overall.

Right now, the BDA's BOGO promotion is viable due to the relatively low volume of overall HD media sales, and may only end up costing the BDA a few hundred thousand dollars (which really isn't all that desperate to me) however, as the install base for the players and attachment rates continue to increase promotions like this will become more and more expensive and will almost certainly cease once the weekly sales numbers start crossing the one million mark.

However, as the format war will ultimately be decided by hardware installed and not media sales, the BOGO offers are a very short term strategy designed to simply make one set of figures look good (Neilsen ratings) and the offer does not represent a fully realistic picture to the potential consumer since the media price reductions are not representing a true image of permanent overall media price differences between the formats.

Ultimately, the BDA's BOGO offer is simply an attempt to gain high enough sales this week to allow them to have some ammunition to reply to the media with when HD's Transformers release handily wins the week.

So IMO, the BOGO offer isn't desperate but simply a marketing strategy which has limited repeatability due to the ever increasing hardware sales base.

Now what will be interesting to see is just who starts throwing claims of "Desperation" around in a few weeks if a similar promotion is offered on HD DVDs to counter Spider-Man 3.

Even though I think that Spiderman 3 will not make as huge impact as Transformers, I completely agree with your assesement sir. This is exactly what's going on.

+1
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post #15 of 72
10/15/07 at 1:42pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob Black View Post

Why make such a big deal over this BOGO sale? It's about the 6th time such a sale sponsored by the BDA has ran in 2007. They've run them at BB and Fry's before, and they also offered a whopping 40 BD titles at 50% off on amazon some months ago. That's what happens when 90% of the players are game consoles and the owners need incentive to buy movies. Kinda puts that whole attach rate thing in perspective.

What's funny is that actaully without these sales where they are almost "giving discs away", the BD software sales advantage would absolutely melt away. If you have to do things like this, early in the adoption, it's very clear that you've reach rock bottom and the only way to pump up numbers artificially is to completely kill the prices of the products.
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post #16 of 72
10/15/07 at 1:46pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob Black View Post

Why make such a big deal over this BOGO sale? It's about the 6th time such a sale sponsored by the BDA has ran in 2007. They've run them at BB and Fry's before, and they also offered a whopping 40 BD titles at 50% off on amazon some months ago. That's what happens when 90% of the players are game consoles and the owners need incentive to buy movies. Kinda puts that whole attach rate thing in perspective.

Can't wait to see all the threads when the next BOGO on HD media takes place. You guys will be all over that like flies on $h . . . dog doodie.

Oh, and Paramount is offering some sort of please buy me sale going on right now. Not much on offer though, but at least it's something. You would think they wouldn't have to do such things with all the HD supporters who are just flocking in droves to buy Paramount titles since they went HD exclusive.
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post #17 of 72
10/15/07 at 1:49pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by nfinity View Post

Even though I think that Spiderman 3 will not make as huge impact as Transformers, I completely agree with your assesement sir. This is exactly what's going on.

+1

Why is it that Spiderman 3 wont have the same impact because in all honestly on a global scale Spiderman is twice as popular as Transformers... stop me when I am wrong here and also the same can be said for the 3rd Pirates movie as worldwide it also killed Transformers you see HD DVD fanboys want to believe that these studios wil make the decisions for which formats to support by US only when in fact if the whole world accepts Blu Ray as the future, which it is doing by the way then how in the world is 40% of the US market of hi def going to decide for the rest of the world? In short it wont, We live in a world of globalization and that includes entertainment as much as cars and computers so spin it all you want but as Blu distances itself everywhere at once HD DVD is still trying get get traction just in the US of A.
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post #18 of 72
10/15/07 at 1:55pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Deja Vu View Post

Simple! It was the BD fanboys who ORIGINALLY claimed that Toshiba was desparate when they offered 5 "free" movies with their players. Then Toshiba was again "desparate" when they put the A2 on sale with more "free" movies. I personally don't remember any BD fan accusing Sony or Panasonic of being desparate when they slashed prices and offered "free" movies with the purchase of a player. I would think that HD DVD fans accusing BD of being desparate is simply a means of pointing out a little hyprocrisy by BD fans - although it does run both ways.

Cheers,

Grant

FORMAT NEUTRAL: My obversation - if HD DVD isn't over-achieving then BD must be under-achieving!

Its easy to call a team desperate when they have lost 40-50 weeks in a row.

I would say that in this case, the BDA IS desperate to keep the streak alive. But that doesnt mean they are in dire straights like HDDVD was before the Paramount payoff.

It should be an interesting week. I thought it was a lock for transformers&HDDVD this week... but now, not that sure. We'll see if the BOGO sale is good enough.

-----------------------------
IMO, I would rather have "Desperate" sales on software than on hardware.

If you are on this board, you probably already own the hardware... so a sale on hardware probably wont help you.(unless you are looking for another player)

Software discounts... appeal to those who already have the player(like me)
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post #19 of 72
10/15/07 at 1:55pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by nfinity View Post

What's funny is that actaully without these sales where they are almost "giving discs away", the BD software sales advantage would absolutely melt away. If you have to do things like this, early in the adoption, it's very clear that you've reach rock bottom and the only way to pump up numbers artificially is to completely kill the prices of the products.


Exactly.....9 free discs with a $199 HD DVD player is a perfect example as well...... Again, the consumer benefits.
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post #20 of 72
10/15/07 at 1:57pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by tqlla View Post

... the BDA IS desperate...

OK you convinced me!
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post #21 of 72
10/15/07 at 2:06pm
This is an excellent strategic move by BD provided they can afford it. I will go a step further and offer that I do not believe HD-DVD can have the same impact with a BOGO, because for BluRay: (a) it brings PS3 owners into play, and (b) the attach rate is lower so there are more owners possibly in need of catalog titles or growing their collection.
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post #22 of 72
10/15/07 at 2:10pm
Thread Starter 
Yes, one way that the PS3 fanbase could be explioted would be to bring up ads during the PS3 boot up and network sign in.

Yes, its wrong and unethical, but it would work.
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post #23 of 72
10/15/07 at 2:15pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by badboi View Post

Can't wait to see all the threads when the next BOGO on HD media takes place. You guys will be all over that like flies on $h . . . dog doodie.

Oh, and Paramount is offering some sort of please buy me sale going on right now. Not much on offer though, but at least it's something. You would think they wouldn't have to do such things with all the HD supporters who are just flocking in droves to buy Paramount titles since they went HD exclusive.

Or it could be that since Paramount has never excluded HD-DVD, many owners already have a lot of Para titles as it is. Further, you'd also think that Sony wouldn't have to slash their title prices to get people to buy them, since they're Blu exclusive. Yet they have, and it works.
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post #24 of 72
10/15/07 at 2:15pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Everdog View Post

OK you convinced me!

My thoughts on that... WHO CARES if they are desperate this week to keep the streak alive... Cheap quality movies for me!

I'll take it. $10 a title. for good titles like underworld. $13 for POTC. Too bad I already own a lot of them. But I did buy 7 discs yesterday.

And I still have to purchase FF4+Troy(too bad no sale on those).
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post #25 of 72
10/15/07 at 2:16pm
You guys keep forgetting something!
I mentioned it in another thread, just who exactly is buying these disks?
It sure as hell isnt NEW Blu Ray customers.........
Its the SAME customers they had last week, who are simply increasing their current number of blu ray disks.
I havent seen a single thread that lists a person who actually claimed he was buying a blu ray PLAYER because of this sale.....not a single one. People who already own blu ray are saying things like, I just bought 18 new disks.

The growth of a product is NOT determined by how many RETURNING customers you have. Its determined by how many NEW customers you aquire.....
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post #26 of 72
10/15/07 at 2:20pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dwarftosser View Post

You guys keep forgetting something!
I mentioned it in another thread, just who exactly is buying these disks?
It sure as hell isnt NEW Blu Ray customers.........
Its the SAME customers they had last week, who are simply increasing their current number of blu ray disks.
I havent seen a single thread that lists a person who actually claimed he was buying a blu ray PLAYER because of this sale.....not a single one. People who already own blu ray are saying things like, I just bought 18 new disks.

The growth of a product is NOT determined by how many RETURNING customers you have. Its determined by how many NEW customers you aquire.....


Hopefully some untapped PS3 owners.

People on this forum ususally already own their HD media player. So its a lot less likely to find new buyers here. The people you are wondering about are walking around Best buy and Frys right now.

And here is a thread of someone who is buying without owning a player(meaning that he probably will own said player)

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=923248
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post #27 of 72
10/15/07 at 2:25pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by tqlla View Post

Hopefully some untapped PS3 owners.

People on this forum ususally already own their HD media player. So its a lot less likely to find new buyers here. The people you are wondering about are walking around Best buy and Frys right now.

And here is a thread of someone who is buying without owning a player(meaning that he probably will own said player)

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=923248

Oh i've seen that thread, now that its linked. The OP is waiting on the Samsung combo player. Which has yet to be released. It's funny that even Samsung is dual format now.
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post #28 of 72
10/15/07 at 2:31pm
Format war over!... again.

BR wins!... again.

Every time there's a major sale (regardless of the motivation to do so), we rehash the same old arguments with some wanting to predict the outcome of the format war based on sales numbers from said sale.

Right now there's a thread over in the BR Software forum with some guy going absolutely orgasmic because PotC is ahead of Transformers at Amazon due to the BOGO sale. You'd think he won the lottery.

NEWSFLASH (again): Neither format is going anywhere for the foreseeable future, and both the sales numbers and the dollar amounts paid by the BDA (or HDPG) to retailers to compensate for these sales amount to weekly poker money where the companies involved are concerned.
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post #29 of 72
10/15/07 at 2:42pm
I'm requesting this be merged.

Already a thread on the BOGO sales.
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post #30 of 72
10/15/07 at 3:04pm
Quote:
Originally Posted by luclin999 View Post

Well, the principal argument seems to be money, as in loss.

The Toshiba players sold at $250 (Msrp $299) are not likely to be a loss (or if so, a very small one) for Toshiba, while it is fairly certain that selling Blu Ray Media for $10 or less per title (retail) is almost certainly due to the BDA writing checks to the retailers in order to cover the lost revenue from the discounted disks.

How large those checks may be will depend entirely on just how many disks are sold overall.

Right now, the BDA's BOGO promotion is viable due to the relatively low volume of overall HD media sales, and may only end up costing the BDA a few hundred thousand dollars (which really isn't all that desperate to me) however, as the install base for the players and attachment rates continue to increase promotions like this will become more and more expensive and will almost certainly cease once the weekly sales numbers start crossing the one million mark.

However, as the format war will ultimately be decided by hardware installed and not media sales, the BOGO offers are a very short term strategy designed to simply make one set of figures look good (Neilsen ratings) and the offer does not represent a fully realistic picture to the potential consumer since the media price reductions are not representing a true image of permanent overall media price differences between the formats.

Ultimately, the BDA's BOGO offer is simply an attempt to gain high enough sales this week to allow them to have some ammunition to reply to the media with when HD's Transformers release handily wins the week.

So IMO, the BOGO offer isn't desperate but simply a marketing strategy which has limited repeatability due to the ever increasing hardware sales base.

Now what will be interesting to see is just who starts throwing claims of "Desperation" around in a few weeks if a similar promotion is offered on HD DVDs to counter Spider-Man 3.

It will also be interesting to see who claims it's a brilliant marketing decision. Which btw, it is. So in a few weeks I'll come onto the thread you start and say it's a nice marketing move. Can't really call it brilliant because they will just be copying the BDA playbook.
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