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So how will one side give in?  

post #1 of 41
Thread Starter 
This format war is going on quite long. But what will it take for one side to give in? Will it take a 4:1 lead before one side calls it quits?

I think Sony will drag this thing on if Blu-ray starts to lose. HD-DVD will prob give in quite easily I think. Yours views?
post #2 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by DVD_sanchez View Post


I think Sony will drag this thing on if Blu-ray starts to lose. HD-DVD will prob give in quite easily I think. Yours views?

My view is HD DVD will not "give in quite easily" if "Blu-ray starts to lose"
post #3 of 41
Sony will always have and will probably support Blu-ray since it is in their ps3. They dont even have to have them available in stores. They can just sell them over the ps3 shopping channel or whatever. So if Sony gives in all they would have to do would be to start producing hd dvds due to the market demand. They wouldnt even lose face. Microsoft could do the same thing with the Xbox360. Neither format needs to die off. they can just be relabled the console formats.
post #4 of 41
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by b.greenway View Post

My view is HD DVD will not "give in quite easily" if "Blu-ray starts to lose"

I was talking from both sides. I should of started a new paragraph.
post #5 of 41
I dont see either one giving in much at all. Both have proven that losses upfront are NO concern and we know that they have both taken some financial hits to keep this going. Also, theres the stubborness factor combined with ego....thats a deadly combination.

I say each side will ride it out until the absolute end....Im talking it could be 90/10 ratio and the towel STILL will not be thrown in.
post #6 of 41
You know the format war will be over when Sony produces its first HD DVD player (just like when they produced their first VHS vcr).

But really, who knows? HDM discs are still such an overlooked product right now that this thing could drag on for years. If dual format players become the norm and are very cheap, they could exist side-by-side indefinitely.
post #7 of 41
Neither one will give in. Only the studios have the collective power to kill one of the formats.
post #8 of 41
Why would HD DVD give in any easier than SOny? SOny has everything riding on this format war. This is why they will only concede when it is well and truly lost.

I think that HD DVD is winning the war. Although Sony won a couple of the battles, they missed the bigger picture.

The selling prices of HD DVD players means that they will soon have a larger software sales market than the PS3 owners, who Sony has been unable to get buying movies in large enough percentages.

By January, HD DVD will be winning Nielsen for the majority of weeks, over BD. At that point, BD will lose more studio support and HD DVD will gain more support.

Disney and Sony may be holdouts, but it won't help. In Q1 2008, MGM will likely go neutral, and Warner will likely go HD DVD exclusive. New Line will likely have to follow also, but I think there is someone inside New Line that may try to remain "neutral".

In summary, it makes no difference who one thinks is "more likely" to concede or not, what matters is who is really going to win. Sony can hold out forever, for all I care.
post #9 of 41
If anyone is expecting Toshiba to throw in the towel - you have to realize that of all the companies involved in HDM - they have the most to lose due to their commanding hold on DVD patents. it is estimated that they receive over $1 billion per year in royalties and license fees for DVD - both on the movies sold and the players sold.
post #10 of 41
Neither side is going to "give in" anytime soon. Many dying formats remained, even though there was a clear victor.

Also, people need to quit over simplifying this as Sony vs Toshiba. My point being, there are many companies involved with BDA and it's going to take more than drooping sales to have them all call it quits.

I expect both formats to be present throughout 2008 at the least. And unless one format complete dominates the other, expect the battle to go on for quite sometime.
post #11 of 41
One good thing about Sony is their support of formats long after other companies would have let them go. I still buy Minidiscs at my local BB and Frys and SACDs are still readily available too. Even UMD is still seeing new movies released on it. You can't get everything in these formats, but you can get some things, which means your stuff isn't totally useless.
post #12 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by yakkosmurf View Post

One good thing about Sony is their support of formats long after other companies would have let them go. I still buy Minidiscs at my local BB and Frys and SACDs are still readily available too. Even UMD is still seeing new movies released on it. You can't get everything in these formats, but you can get some things, which means your stuff isn't totally useless.

Exactly.

There isn't going to be a hard end date for either format. Very few pieces of technology abruptly ceased to be. With billions being invested in both formats, I'm confident even the losing format will be available for years.

I do believe that a new medium will replace both formats before either gains any significant mainstream adoption, but even still, you'll still see them in use to some extent.
post #13 of 41
It's too early to predict which format will be the victor.

In terms of marketing, Sony has done a great job. Everyone I talk to who is eager to learn about HDM is already familiar with the Blu-ray brand. They know very little about HD DVD. I think because Blu-ray represents something "new" to them; thus, something better (yes, most of us know that's not necessarily true).

It's my estimate that the people who will be buying HDM in the next 6 months are still considered early adopters - but for whatever reason haven't bit the bullet yet.

The "late" adopters aren't even considering upgrading their player to HD yet because they haven't even upgraded their TV sets. They're the ones who will inevitably decide who the format winner is; which brings us back to the question: how will one side give in? Very stubbornly.

Until it becomes very obvious that the "late" adopters have embraced their format of choice, only then will the loser concede.

Sony has seen many of its new media crushed by the competition, they'll be damned if they let their newest creation go without a fight.

And expect a very long fight.
post #14 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordGamer View Post

Exactly.

There isn't going to be a hard end date for either format. Very few pieces of technology abruptly ceased to be. With billions being invested in both formats, I'm confident even the losing format will be available for years.

I do believe that a new medium will replace both formats before either gains any significant mainstream adoption, but even still, you'll still see them in use to some extent.

The only reason to have a new medium is because we need it. The only reason we would need it is if we exceed the resolution of HD. THAT is not going to happen for a LONG time.

D-Cinema is using the platform of SHD - Super High Definition - 4000x2000 and 12bit Color. The consumer is not going to get this "format" for at least 15 years if not more. Video formats last an incredibally long time. NTSC is almost 55 years old and still has almost 70% of the USA households as the only video format.
post #15 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

The only reason to have a new medium is because we need it. The only reason we would need it is if we exceed the resolution of HD. THAT is not going to happen for a LONG time.

D-Cinema is using the platform of SHD - Super High Definition - 4000x2000 and 12bit Color. The consumer is not going to get this "format" for at least 15 years if not more. Video formats last an incredibally long time. NTSC is almost 55 years old and still has almost 70% of the USA households as the only video format.

See, that's part of the problem with both these formats. You're viewing it as an HD movie thing, which is basically the main attraction to both these formats (due to them being at the core, just offering more space than DVD).

When CD and DVD landed, it wasn't just about picture or sound quality, they revolutionized virtually all industies. The new medium isn't just going to have a focus on movies, it's going to offer better ways of storage, interactivity, portability, etc.

I don't proclaim to know what the successor to DVD will be, but with how fast technology is evolving and the tastes of consumers, Blu-ray and HD DVD are just drops in the bucket...extensions of DVD.

Small USB drives and compact media cards offer more in terms of overall ability, the problem is to gain similar storage space, consumer cost is too high. But over the next few years, that will change. I expect that the next medium is going to resemble something closer to small digital storage as opposed to optical discs.
post #16 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by Missions View Post

It's my estimate that the people who will be buying HDM in the next 6 months are still considered early adopters - but for whatever reason haven't bit the bullet yet.

The "late" adopters aren't even considering upgrading their player to HD yet because they haven't even upgraded their TV sets. They're the ones who will inevitably decide who the format winner is

What's interesting is that we seem to be heading into a period where it's both about "early adopters" AND "early J6P adopters" -- with hidef players only now starting to gain some credible visibility at Best Buy AND being positioned in volume at Wal-Mart. I don't think any high end consumer electronics has ever experienced that simultaneously.

I don't think it will be so hard for Sony to shift to HD DVD down the road. Their movies division sells movies, not a format, and can easily support both as a wise business division. The CE division has a long-term vested interest in PS3/Blu-ray and will continue to promote that while, perhaps, bringing out a dual format player in 2009.

It will be harder for Toshiba to shift to Blu-ray but if they do I think it will be taking the dual format route making Blu-ray effectively an "add on". But I can't see that before 2010 and perhaps never if Blu-ray shifts into a game console medium primarily.
post #17 of 41
As counter intuitive as it may sound, the PS3 is the answer to the format war. Sony... or a licensed 3rd party can do an app for the PS3 to make it HD DVD compliant.

The vast bulk of the BD cabable players in the world are PS3s... The number of players from the the other BD Ce players is small especially on a per manufacturer basis. Those companies can offer trade up deals to either HD DVD or dual format players. This will create the fewest stranded players, which is what is necessary to lessen the fallout and damage to these BD CE brand names.

Sony and the other BD players are in the best position to bring and end to the war. BD players are not going to $99 soon, that would cause a huge defection away from the PS3 as movie player customer, a segment that Sony absoltuely must keep based on its 3rd place position in the console market. But the reality is HD DVD is headed to $99 and less. A dual format capable PS3 could justify its price premium and the cost of the software would probably be less than a dollar for each player sold or already in the wild.

HD DVD did not go away which was Sony's stategy. Toshiba is not only not going to go away it is on the verge of fullfilling its promise. Sony will need to figure out how coexistence will work. The other BD CE will go dual and eventually HD DVD only for their mass market products.

So it is upto Sony to save the PS3 franchise and it seems to me providing HD DVD capability to the PS3 unifies the format and will actually protect their franchise. BD as a big royalty generating technology has failed and that will become more and more apparent over the next 12 months.
post #18 of 41
Theis threds can be fun as they go out of control very eazy.

I myself don't think its the hardware prices but the software. If each side continues to sell software at 50% (or more on catalog) over the DVD counterpart nither side can win.

Athough places like BB & CC seem to be taking atvantage of the eary buyers buy charging higher MSRP prices.
Frys,walmart and target can be alright on prices. But both walmart and target have very limited selections. I think they still ask to much. $24.99-29.99 for new HDM vs 15.99-19.99 on DVD.

I myself don't mind paying a little extra for HD-DVD but I think theirs a lot out their that won't.
post #19 of 41
It's all in the studios. You can't have a format without studios. BD is lucky because Sony will always be the last man standing.

If two large studios were to jump the exclusivity ship to the other side, we'd see the format start to slowly decline eventually ending up in high tech museums.
post #20 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

The only reason to have a new medium is because we need it. The only reason we would need it is if we exceed the resolution of HD. THAT is not going to happen for a LONG time.

D-Cinema is using the platform of SHD - Super High Definition - 4000x2000 and 12bit Color. The consumer is not going to get this "format" for at least 15 years if not more. Video formats last an incredibally long time. NTSC is almost 55 years old and still has almost 70% of the USA households as the only video format.

Not sure what to think of the fact I agree with Lee...consumers are just now buying HD sets. They are not going to upgrade to an even more expensive tech when the form factor will be the same. Most upgrade for the cool factor and large screen, not HD.

I love all the critics here who lambasted the BDA for their "HD DVD is dead" comments now proclaiming BD dead. Hipocrasy tea anyone?

Has anyone tracked the success rate rdjam's predictions?
post #21 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordGamer View Post

See, that's part of the problem with both these formats. You're viewing it as an HD movie thing, which is basically the main attraction to both these formats (due to them being at the core, just offering more space than DVD).

When CD and DVD landed, it wasn't just about picture or sound quality, they revolutionized virtually all industies. The new medium isn't just going to have a focus on movies, it's going to offer better ways of storage, interactivity, portability, etc.

I don't proclaim to know what the successor to DVD will be, but with how fast technology is evolving and the tastes of consumers, Blu-ray and HD DVD are just drops in the bucket...extensions of DVD.

Small USB drives and compact media cards offer more in terms of overall ability, the problem is to gain similar storage space, consumer cost is too high. But over the next few years, that will change. I expect that the next medium is going to resemble something closer to small digital storage as opposed to optical discs.

LG:

IMO you are putting to much faith and weight on new technology. Too many business's depend on the plastic disc. They will not be put out of business. Not for a loooong time.

Just because it can be done does not mean it will be done. Fact of business. Something new is unknown and a risk.

"The devil you know is so much better than the devil you don't know."
post #22 of 41
I'd like to second Mr. Aviator. It is the studios, so let's look at the studios...


Sony - Never, never, ever (so there is always upconversion of DVD)
Fox - way paranoid about copying and is still po'ed they listened to Lieberfarb about DVD & CSS, even though they have made a boatload of money from it.
Disney - likes the capacity, so maybe HD51 will help if the discs can be reliably printed and read without error. Because of their public statements it would take some heads rolling to change as well.
MGM - Controlled by Fox and Sony so I don't know why they would go 1st Quarter next year.

Warner - because of their public comments so far it would be very dificult for them to justify moving to one side or another without justifiable sales data. They have mentioned early next year as a possible deciding point though. If that holds true they are either going to use the sales volumes of discs to justify dumping HD-DVD or the sales volumes of players to justify dumping BluRay.

Newline - I could see them going exclusive either way as Warner does, but if they go HD-DVD don't expect them to ever release a Day and Date.

Paramount - they really threw a monkey in the old wrench. Whether they were bribed, suddenly decided BD wasn't technically there, or were wowed by the even cheaper players coming, it doesn't matter. They have basically reminded all consumers that the studios can yank their product at will for any reason, that support can be fleating, and venturing into any format war is not for the faint of heart.

Universal - They have blown their wad on HD-DVD for virtually nought- with the exception of Bourne, which was the most awesome of awesomest movies of the year.


Note - even as a current PS3 owner I must say that if HD-DVD can pull off winning sales volumes in a majority of weeks as RDJM is Nostradamussing all the time then every studio should move as quickly as possible to HD-DVD and end this thing. If you can't beat your competition on player cost or disc sales it doesn't matter what the specs are, the market spoke.
post #23 of 41
I think there is one thing we can count on,this is going to go on for a while say 2010 or so. Additionally Sony will not give in for way longer than that if it tilts that way, regardless.

Art
post #24 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

LG:

IMO you are putting to much faith and weight on new technology. Too many business's depend on the plastic disc. They will not be put out of business. Not for a loooong time.

Just because it can be done does not mean it will be done. Fact of business. Something new is unknown and a risk.

"The devil you know is so much better than the devil you don't know."

The same could of been said for companies that relied on VHS, audio cassettes, floppy disks, etc. Change happens and there is no way to stop it. Furthermore, the change has already begun. Compact media cards and USB drives are extremely popular. And we all know how downloading has taken off.

Companies are already looking for the next "cash cow." Perfect example, BDA and the HD DVD group. DVD has hit its plateau, so these companies are trying to develop a new format that will cause market interest and sales.

Adapt or die. If a company merely yells how much it relies on the "plastic disc," it's going to be soon bought out by a company that has evolved passed it.

Once consumers get a wiff of new technology that helps make their lives easier, they want more. Prime example, CD music sales. Do you think consumers care about a company's production of compact discs, when the consumer has downloads and MP3s? If the company tries to fight change, it won't survive.

Blu-ray and HD DVD are simply about storage. Truth is, there is much better storage mediums out there. The only thing keep them in the game now, is the price to storage ratio. A USB 2.0 thumb drive offers much more than either HD format, but getting a similar USB storage as the HD format, is out of the mainstream consumer's price reach. As the price continues to drop, the purpose of the HD format lessens.

All it takes is for a handful of companies to deliver what consumers want. If other companies don't make changes, they don't last.
post #25 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordGamer View Post

The same could of been said for companies that relied on VHS, audio cassettes, floppy disks, etc. Change happens and there is no way to stop it. Furthermore, the change has already begun. Compact media cards and USB drives are extremely popular. And we all know how downloading has taken off.

Companies are already looking for the next "cash cow." Perfect example, BDA and the HD DVD group. DVD has hit its plateau, so these companies are trying to develop a new format that will cause market interest and sales.

Adapt or die. If a company merely yells how much it relies on the "plastic disc," it's going to be soon bought out by a company that has evolved passed it.

Once consumers get a wiff of new technology that helps make their lives easier, they want more. Prime example, CD music sales. Do you think consumers care about a company's production of compact discs, when the consumer has downloads and MP3s? If the company tries to fight change, it won't survive.

Blu-ray and HD DVD are simply about storage. Truth is, there is much better storage mediums out there. The only thing keep them in the game now, is the price to storage ratio. A USB 2.0 thumb drive offers much more than either HD format, but getting a similar USB storage as the HD format, is out of the mainstream consumer's price reach. As the price continues to drop, the purpose of the HD format lessens.

All it takes is for a handful of companies to deliver what consumers want. If other companies don't make changes, they don't last.


But all that relates to HDM is using existing manufacturing technology to get a new product out. What could be better? New life for old machines.

And the conondrum of your argument is your statement of "companies to deliver what the consumer wants." because all to often it is; "companies giving the consumer what they think the consumer wants." And the consumer is fickle.
post #26 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by Art Sonneborn View Post

I think there is one thing we can count on,this is going to go on for a while say 2010 or so. Additionally Sony will not give in for way longer than that if it tilts that way, regardless.

But which Sony are you referring to?

Sony Gaming Division - sure, they have no incentive to consider HD DVD and in fact Blu-ray gives them an exclusive edge and differentiation

Sony CE Division - has a vested interest in Blu-ray but could make a case for dual players as well and sooner than 2010 perhaps

Sony Pictures Division - sells movies, not formats, and has no vested interest in Blu-ray exclusivity outside of larger corporate strategies; their core business is "monetizing" titles across as many platforms are possible and, as early as 2009, they will start to release HD DVD titles as well
post #27 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by rdjam View Post

Why would HD DVD give in any easier than SOny? SOny has everything riding on this format war. This is why they will only concede when it is well and truly lost.

I think that HD DVD is winning the war. Although Sony won a couple of the battles, they missed the bigger picture.

Bold added for emphasis.

This is what the HD-DVD people here at AVS don't get:
Blu-Ray != Sony
If anything were the case, HD-DVD = Toshiba.

Excluding media lets look at hardware manufacturers.
HD-DVD: Toshiba.....ah.....maybe more.....nope
Blu-Ray: Pioneer, Sony, Samsung, Sharp, Philips, and Panasonic to name a few.

Stop acting like it is Sony against the world as if you have a thought based in reality, it is Toshiba against the world - both literally and figuratively.
post #28 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by ptysell View Post

Bold added for emphasis.

This is what the HD-DVD people here at AVS don't get:
Blu-Ray != Sony
If anything were the case, HD-DVD = Toshiba.

Excluding media lets look at hardware manufacturers.
HD-DVD: Toshiba.....ah.....maybe more.....nope
Blu-Ray: Pioneer, Sony, Samsung, Sharp, Philips, and Panasonic to name a few.

Stop acting like it is Sony against the world as if you have a thought based in reality, it is Toshiba against the world - both literally and figuratively.

There something wrong with your scenerios.

It was IBM against the world.

It was Xerox against the world.

The issue of more CEM's making BD players has yet to yield a single benefit for BD. Not when they are selling players in the 10's of thousands while Toshiba is selling players in the 100's of thousands.

Economies of scale are VERY important for a CE product . . . unless you charge a high price to offset volume. Just ask Pioneer, Denon or Meridian how that works out. And the size of their companies. And the potential profit they can make.
post #29 of 41
I don't think either side will give in. Both sides have too much invested in their format of choice
post #30 of 41
Quote:
Originally Posted by ptysell View Post

Bold added for emphasis.

This is what the HD-DVD people here at AVS don't get:
Blu-Ray != Sony
If anything were the case, HD-DVD = Toshiba.

Excluding media lets look at hardware manufacturers.
HD-DVD: Toshiba.....ah.....maybe more.....nope
Blu-Ray: Pioneer, Sony, Samsung, Sharp, Philips, and Panasonic to name a few.

Stop acting like it is Sony against the world as if you have a thought based in reality, it is Toshiba against the world - both literally and figuratively.


Not paying much attention are we? What about Venturer and Onkyo, for starters...
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