Originally Posted by gamelover360
I think people will still be attatched to having the disc of a movie. I think that
1) If your hard drive crashes you may lose the movie you bought, whereas a disc is your to put in a safe place.
2) People like collecting things, and they like to look at their discs all organized in rows.
Granted we will probably get to the point where people are cool with ALL digital. But I just don't think it's this gen for movies. Mayeb next gen.
Just my 2 cents.
So I think that HD discs will take hold eventually. Someday thats what everyone will own....Hd Tv's and cheap Hd players. Then theey will naturally want the movies to go with it.
Well you have to look at the market.. I like to choose the audio side first because thats where the digital future has already hit home.
How popular has buying CD's become since MP3's became a hit? How much do people care about MP3 compression schemes? Or 7.1 lossless sound? How many people just want to hear the song, right here, right now with very good very clear quality.
I have no doubt the future of HD video is downloads, but I do think its still a good 10 years away. Dont get me wrong, any cable, satellite or internet based TV service has downloadable movies available right here right now. But the bandwidth to deliver these types of media is still at a premium.
Honestly the 360 is the only one I'm familiar with that can give you instant satisfication of a large catalogue of HD movies. Satellite and Cable both off HD movies for PPV.. but I'm dont think they are true downloads. I think they both run during specific time frames.. and lets say if its 12:28pm right now when I'm writing this.. you'dhave to wait till 1pm for the next HD movie to start playing.
I think once the technology has matured, and there has been a standard made for downloading HD video that it will take off. And for 4 specific reasons:
1) Contrary to what you believe, I think alot of people dont want to buy a disc just to watch a movie. Especially a $20-30 movie that they will watch once, maybe twice. HDDVD or BR needs to be in the bargin bins at Walmart if it wants to become mainstream. I just dont see that happening. If Blockbuster is still making plenty of bucks charging $5 bucks for a rental.. you have to believe a $3 or $4 downloadable rental is even more appealing.
2) Contrary to what you also believe, I think alot of people dont want to own discs. I had a huge audio and videotape library.. where is that now? Or how about all the CD's I've bought over the years.. most are scratched, stolen or missing. My DVD collection is still about 300 discs.. but its simply a dust collecting eyesore in the modern living room where Flat Screen TV's and the "less is better" look is becoming more the norm. Also women and teenagers are becoming the fastest growing group in terms of money spent on electronics.. how interested do you think women and teenagers are in building up another disc collection?
3) Instant gratification. The is nothing more satisfying than getting something you really want, right away. The eaiser and cheaper content providers can deliver us digital movies.. the more popular they will become.
4) Unlimited rental subscriptions. This is where Blockbuster and Netflix are striking gold. For those that really love movies, I mean really love movies. They love watching as many movies as possible for a reasonable fee. If downloadable HD or SD movies could follow some sort of unlimited subscription policy it would really, really change the tide.
There will always be the audio and video enthusiast/phile who want the very best quality, the least compression, and something tangible they can hold onto for ever in theory.
But that person is a much smaller audience than the average Joe who wants to enjoy that media experience right now, as cheap and easy as possible.. and move on to another media experience another day.