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The end of the Dish 5000/Modulator Panasonic Recording System? - Page 2  

post #31 of 35
Originally posted by Ken H
If this is true, then why do they still work? I'm sorry Mike, your position is eroded by the mere fact that we've been discussing how to make these things work for years now; the discussion continues and the product works just like it did when introduced.
Ken --

What is your point? There is no copy-protected HD video (at least not protected by setting CGMS fields in the MPEG-2 packets) being broadcast on premium DBS or cable today, or the eagle-eyed people in these forums would notice that they were getting downrezzed images out of their DIRECTV Plus and DISH 6000 systems. So the major motion picture powers that be have decided to let the issue go for the present time. I'm certain that they know of the existence of the AccessTV and HiPix cards and the DISH 5000+Modulator combo and realize that people have been using these to archive films from movie channels and pay-per-view on potentially network-accessible disk drives. They must figure that any loss of material before they can all agree on means of copy-protection in home A/V networks is water under the bridge. People are freely ripping off DVDs--DeCSS essentially rendered the STD DVD rendition of several thousand films into the public domain. They're fighting an extended battle--some potential income loss from a trickle of films released on two HD movie channels and one HD PPV channel isn't much to worry about in the larger scheme of thing, yet.

However, before they expand available content appreciably, they almost certainly will turn copy-protection on. In DVB cable, I've got seven channels of HBO, five of Showtime, and three TMC (these last come in extended basic, but the Independent Film Channel costs extra--go figure); additionally, there are four or five channels of Cinemax that I don't subscribe to. There are 38 pay-per-view movie channels and 28 pay-per-view channels for sports. I don't think that all of cable and DBS will eventually be HD, but all of this stuff will. Before you see anything like the same sort of subscription movie and pay-per-view blitz for HD, they will long have applied copy-protection systems to that content. (Some have speculated that they're being slow in adopting a copy-protection standard or standards to keep from having to release more than a small amount of valuable property on HD--they may be right).

If they're dead-set determined to stop the uncontrolled copying of HD film, then they have to plug up any holes, and the 5000+modulator is a big hole, even if only 1000 people are using them to record to disk. I'm not talking about DISH independently taking action of its own accord--I'm talking about their content providers insisting that they do something about it as a condition of continued service from them.

As for giving them ideas by talking about this, please--do you really think that they're too stupid to hire people bright enough to keep on top of this without information from message boards? Do you really think that "they" don't know about every device sold capable of tuning HDTV?

-- Mike Scott
post #32 of 35
Originally posted by Glimmie
4) As per the 1000 max I predict in existance, thats 1000 SYSTEMS with either Hipix or the Panny combo. Now out of those people, how many will try to load this stuff on the WEB?
It only takes one person Glimmie--one out of a thousand people technically oriented enough to handle making these recordings in the first place. The people who upload what that one or more person(s) offer will take care of the rest. By default, BearShare, at least, will make anything you download uploadable from your machine. They discourage using the service and not sharing--they call it "freeloading".
I work in this industry and know the business models. This ain't gonna happen. The distribution ladder is very carefully implemented and fine tuned for profit. Sale, rental, and PPV are three seperate distribution channels in that order. And FWEIW, this is one area where the MPAA does have control under the wishes of the studios.
But you say you're a hardware engineer, Glimmie--I write firmware. I don't design business models or have much to do with my company adopting new ones. That entire chain of film distribution that you mention didn't exist thirty years ago. New business models come into being from time to time.

Pay-per-view protected by either HDCP or DTCP or both is much more secure than DVD--if I were a movie studio concerned about unauthorized distribution of my content, I'd rather rent it by copy-protected pay-per-view than on essentially unprotected DVDs.

I've read about plans to release fresher material to pay-per-view in several different places--it's supposed to be one of the service providers few gains for pushing copy-protection on their customers. They've wanted fresher stuff for pay-per-view for a long time, and copy-protection enables the studios to give it to them. So far as I can tell, we've always been able to rent films on the day that they can buy them, but I may be wrong about that. If there's a delay between retail and rental, that may remain, but the delay between rental and pay-per-view will go away. Pay-per-view will be just another rental media, like DVD and VHS.

I've even heard rumours of Blockbuster dumping their stores and turning to pay-per-view services. This seems far-fetched to me, but you never know.

-- Mike Scott
post #33 of 35
Mike, I don't understand your point. What's to be gained by negative speculation about the lifespan of this equipment?

If it happens, it happens. There's nothing positive being contributed by trying to convince everyone that you're right, and their equipment and investment will be obsolesced sooner rather than later.

This discussion reminds me of all the threads in the old Compuserve CEFORUM over a 10 year period -- where people who DIDN'T own laserdisc players were constantly trying to convince owners that they made a bad investment, and their players and discs were soon to be obsolete.

Guess what? It eventually happened with DVDs replacing LDs -- but not for 10 or 15 years. Meanwhile:

1) All of those laserdisc owners had state-of-the art video and amazing supplemental features they could enjoy again and again over that time period.

2) Many have large libraries of discs that are STILL not available on DVD today -- and won't be for years. Although you can't buy any new laserdisc releases, those older titles can still be enjoyed, and look great. They haven't suddenly "stopped working".

I look at my investment in a "Panny HD Recording Combo" this way: Shortly I will pass the 100-tape mark in my HD movie titles. When this happens, even if the plug is pulled the very next day, I'll have a library of 100 HD movies I can watch over and over again for years, at an investment of less than $30 per title. Not bad. I'd wager that a good number of these titles will not be released for sale on an HD format for years, if at all. I'd wager that -- when copy protection is implemented for future HD recording equipment -- a good number of them may not be able to be recorded with the new gear.

I happen to be of the opinion that the Dish500/Modulator/PV-HD1000 combo will NEVER be proactively "switched-off" by Dish or the program suppliers. They have too many other, bigger fish to fry right now -- and are more concerned with the future and the masses.

I believe it simply ain't gonna happen. But that's just my opinion.

You've got an opinion too, but that's all it is -- an opinion.

If it happens tomorrow, and you're "right" -- whatever. If it happens one year or five years from now -- whatever. If it never happens -- whatever.

Again, what positive outcome is to be gained by trying to "prove" it's going to happen sooner than others (esp. owners) think it's going to?

post #34 of 35
Mike is on the outside, looking in.
Since Mike is not a DN subscriber, doesn't own any DN 5000 gear, the only purpose he has is to develop a theory in his mind that a possible course for gloom and doom could possibly happen. In the beginning of this thread, he posted a surprise statement that explained this. He admitted not even knowing that DN could even reprogram the IRD. Now he knows much more about the way DN hardware works and has decided he also know what they will do with that ability. That is where he still has some learning to do.
Meanwhile he should also learn that those of us who do participate in the use of this equipment are too busy having fun with it to be concerned about highly improbable but possible courses of action by DN and we choose to simply get on with life with the comfort in knowing that.
post #35 of 35
And with that, this thread is closed.
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