Comparison - VHS/LD to DVD/HDM - Page 5

Those are interesting announcements, and the infrastructure is headed in the right direction to support HD VOD. But it still has a lot of growing to do before it's truly ready for the masses. There are still a good number of US citizens that can't get DSL or Cable internet access, let alone service I would call high speed.

As for my speculation about the death of DVD, let me clarify that I mean DVD players will soon disappear. It's going to happen. Consumers won't even have a choice, just like with the TV market. You want to buy a family room sized TV, guess what? It's an HDTV, because you can't find a large SDTV anymore (I just did a quick search and could not find new SDTVs any larger than 32").

We've already seen HD players hit $100, and $200 is practically the regular every day price for entry level players now. When prices get down to $75, or $50, then SD-DVD hardware starts to go bye-bye. We just won't be able to buy them anymore. How long this process takes is a matter of conjecture, but that it will happen is a certainty IMO. DVD has evolved into HDM and the cat isn't going back into the bag.

Once HDM hardware becomes the only choice to purchase then Americans will gradually adopt HDM without necessarily wanting to, just like they're adopting HDTV. The hardware will come before the content for many consumers. At some point the market penetration will be great enough to reach critical mass and we will see widespread new releases on HDM. It won't happen overnight, but the transition from DVD to HDM will occur. Once HDTVs and HDM players are in the majority of homes it must happen, it would not make any sense for DVD to continue as the standard.

But DVD media won't die like the hardware. Backward compatibility and the large installed base you point out will prevent that. People will adopt HDM and start to purchase in that format, but they won't throw out their DVDs like they did with their VHS tapes.

Before I can answer your last question, what market are we talking about? Do you mean that HDM accounts for 20% of disc sales in 5 years? Or HDM players account for 20% of DVD player sales in 5 years? Need more info

There is some truth to this. However, digital tuners can (and do) come with SDTVs. People want HD. It's a buzzword. Even without the mandate, HDTV sales would be dwarfing SDTV sales in mid market up. If someone is in the market for a new $1,000 TV and it costs little to nothing more for an HDTV vs. a SDTV, they will buy the HDTV almost every time.

If there were demand for 42"+ projection SDTVs with digital tuners we would see them in stores. We don't. Take price out of the equation and quality becomes the deciding factor. This will happen with HDM vs DVD at some point when the price gap narrows to a negligible amount.


Well, if HD-DVD players remain so much less expensive than BD I have a feeling most people will end up with HD. But what I really think will happen is that BD and DF format players will follow HD and all will quickly drop in price. It's back to your economies of scale point.


They will look still at such cheap DVD players, but are also likely to give the HDM player more serious consideration with only a $50 price gap. Most importantly a $75 HDM player would be a strong disincentive to buy a $75 DVD player, or even a $50 DVD player. At $75 HDM players would capture substantial market share. If it costs almost the same as a DVD player and can also play DVDs, people will buy them.



I would likely consider that an emerging market. It's possible that in the next 5 years we will see HDM players find their way into 40% or 50% or even 60% of homes, with HDM content lagging behind at the 20% mark. That would sort of mirror what we're seeing with HDTV. But if HDM hardware is only in 20% of homes in 5 years then it would appear to be a niche market to me.