Is HDM Ready For Mass Adoption?

no offense, but can we stop with the daily doom n gloom from Lee posts??? We know you think HDM will fail. Enough already.

IMO HDM won't be ready for mass adoption until there's only one HDM format.

Not yet....too much confusion (2 formats)...overpriced software and in some cases hardware....glitches popping up daily with movies/hardware.

It's great for early adopters, they love tech toys and couldn't care less about glitches..the love a challenge and love tweaking/fixing things...

If they (HDM) can get one format fixed to where it's simple plug and play, with no "updates" required and software prices match what the public pays now (or damn close) and studios pump out a ton of new releases and other classics the public MAY bite....for now there is too much apathy from them and as the months/years go by it keeps feeling like there will be little interest unless there are massive changes.

+1

i guess every pc i have ever owned is not ready for mass adoption. LOL

i say throw the kid in the deep end of the pool and they will learn to swim quick.

go hdm!

I believe...
HD DVD is ready for the mass public, the mass public is not ready for HD DVD

BD is not ready for the mass public, the mass public is not ready for BD

so I voted yes

+1.

+2

I voted yes, DVD technically wasn't where it is today when it deputed. Better transfers, better compression, more space, cheaper disks, progressive-scan, and now upscaling all came later.

Technologically Blu-ray appears to have the bigger uphill battle IMO, but neither are out of the running.

If the OEMs stop making DVD players and they start making HD players, then YES.

Otherwise, NO.

In summary: NO.

I think what you mean is HDM won't be ready for mass adoption until more studios go neutral.

There will always be several ways for consumers to purchase/watch HD video. The most popular right now are downloading and PPV. The most popular BD player has multiple ways of watching HD videos with out ever inserting a disc. Studios will always be releasing films in a large multiple of formats.

So I say HDM is almost ready. It will be with a niche or two smaller niches.

The key word in the OP is "mass".

A little off topic, but my bet is a year their will be kiosks to download HD movies you your SD or SDHC cards. This will go along with other types of downloading that will be as common as downloading MP3s.

I think there are still too many problems for mass adoption. For one thing, firmware updates will always cancel out a portion of the people. Add in the 2 format issue and higher price of High Def movies and I think it will be a bit of time before the masses start sniffing around the high def tree

I think it is ready for the mass market. I think in about 15 months we will see the mass market picking a side and picking up more HD media to go with their new HDTVs that they got for the Digital switch over in February 2009.

blu ray works just fine in the ps3. is the ps3 a mass market product?

imo bd technology isn't suited for soc based standalone players. it isn't a matter of not being ready, imo it isn't practical.

I don't think that's what he meant @ all.

HDM won't be ready for prime time until there is one format.

Sure it is a pricing and retail placement thing at this point. 2008 will bring mass adoption. That does not mean that SD DVD will be replaced in '08 but it will be taking a big chunk out SD sales by end of '08

I voted no. Mass adoption will require under $100 players and under $20 discs. The format war is a distant forth behind these two factors. Third is the fact that the "masses" are quite happy with DVD.

So long as there is firmware my answer is no for both sides.

We need players on the shelves now that don't need firmware EVER.

This is why there has been no MAJOR marketing push.

We, my friends, are paying to beta test.

i voted yes, basically the pieces are in place (now it's time to execute the plan, drop software prices, reduce cost, lower MSRP on players, etc). In other words, from a production stand point, yes (though the G4s need to cut costs and prices where MSRP is under $200 for entry level (where most adoption will come from). Actually my vote was a maybe (but yes is closer with larger scale adoption nearing the digital transition cutoff date, if it ever happens). At the current time, i see two formats as speeding up adoption of HDM (i know i wouldn't have a player if i couldn't have purchased one for $200 or less, which likely wouldn't have been until late 2008 or 2009). For some reason, i can't wait until the HD DVD standalones pass the 1 million threshhold. i think the studios may have already pushed HDM harder than they did LD. Using DVD to gauge "mass adoption" for HDM does not work for me.

i guess i just need some parameters (so much for simple).

1) What do you consider mass adption (numbers / percentages)?
2) Has HDTV even hit mass adoption yet?
3) What kind of numbers would HDM (and formats broken out seperately) need to be considered beyond niche (Didn't LD sell roughly 2 million players in the US despite not really being marketed to the consumer, per wikipedia)?
4) Why are the CEMs involved now (instead of waiting for reduced component prices, better economies of scale, and player price stabilization)?
5) Do you think adoption of these formats will graphically appear linear or exponential (very steep increase in short amount of time)?
6) Stuidos always seem a little slow (but this is not a sign that studios will drop support, at least we are getting day and date new releases). There is too much at stake for a studio to walk away now (potential). There is nothing wrong with studios refusing to release on a format until there is a 2 million install base.
7) How long do you think that HDM has to take a foothold before niche status is cemented?
8) Do you view OTA/Sat/Cable as a competitor or as a companion/driver of HDM?
9) What alternatives are feasible and what kind of timelines (if not HDM, what and when)?

what are the rules? what is "mass adoption"?

when was dvd ready for mass adoption?

how do we know if a product was ready but simply failed? was dtheater ready?

Agree with most everyone. Ready or not, we'll not see the beginning of mass adoption until the media and players are available in big box discount stores like Walmart, and our local video store starts to rent them...

Err....

Definitely not ready for mass consumption.

(1) Two formats that do the same thing = confusing to consumers.
(2) Firmware arriving every few months = confusing to consumers.
(3) Major hardware/firmware changes still being considered on both sides (TL51, BD 2.0, heaven knows what else might be brewing...). These features either need to arrive very soon or be dropped completely if they prove unworkable.
(4) No managed copy solution available yet on either format, despite claims that both will have it.
(5) Neither format has 100% studio support.
(6) Hardware and software pricing is still too high for the mass market.

Until most of the above become non-issues (dual format players or one side winning, pricing coming down further, etc.), I don't think the mass market will embrace HDM.

and I don't think CEMs can produce machines like the PS3 and make any money at it. The promise of blu-ray was greater CEM support, which I would have thought should have equaled more competitive pricing, choice, and faster development of features. However what were seeing is the opposite, one viable player, the PS3 like it or lump it.

Why is this stuff taking such a long time to get up to speed on either side? It looks bad.

I think "confusing" is probably more like "frustrating" or even "irritating," it's not complicated that content is divided, it's annoying because it means you have to buy both to get all, and that's all people need to hear to stop thinking about the matter any further.

If the studios were neutral it would all be based on consumer-choice.

A high speed internet connection is not required for either format.

Other Negatives:

8. Can't play in a battery operated portable disc player (except HDDVD combos)
9. Can't play in a car disc player (except HDDVD combos)
10. More sensitive to scratches
11. More difficult and expensive to make backups for mobile/child use/any fair use (burner cost and blank media cost)
12. More difficult and time consuming to make your own edited movies (scene compilations, demo reels, language/scene edited movies)
13. If a scratch does occur that causes a playback issue, repairability of BD discs an open question (though HDDVD compatible with CD/DVD repair machines )
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=951086

couldn't you take the same list of negatives and apply them to your pc?

Should a mass market video format playback machine behave like a PC?