i voted yes, basically the pieces are in place (now it's time to execute the plan, drop software prices, reduce cost, lower MSRP on players, etc). In other words, from a production stand point, yes (though the G4s need to cut costs and prices where MSRP is under $200 for entry level (where most adoption will come from). Actually my vote was a maybe (but yes is closer with larger scale adoption nearing the digital transition cutoff date, if it ever happens). At the current time, i see two formats as speeding up adoption of HDM (i know i wouldn't have a player if i couldn't have purchased one for $200 or less, which likely wouldn't have been until late 2008 or 2009). For some reason, i can't wait until the HD DVD standalones pass the 1 million threshhold. i think the studios may have already pushed HDM harder than they did LD. Using DVD to gauge "mass adoption" for HDM does not work for me.
i guess i just need some parameters (so much for simple).
1) What do you consider mass adption (numbers / percentages)?
2) Has HDTV even hit mass adoption yet?
3) What kind of numbers would HDM (and formats broken out seperately) need to be considered beyond niche (Didn't LD sell roughly 2 million players in the US despite not really being marketed to the consumer, per wikipedia)?
4) Why are the CEMs involved now (instead of waiting for reduced component prices, better economies of scale, and player price stabilization)?
5) Do you think adoption of these formats will graphically appear linear or exponential (very steep increase in short amount of time)?
6) Stuidos always seem a little slow (but this is not a sign that studios will drop support, at least we are getting day and date new releases). There is too much at stake for a studio to walk away now (potential). There is nothing wrong with studios refusing to release on a format until there is a 2 million install base.
7) How long do you think that HDM has to take a foothold before niche status is cemented?
8) Do you view OTA/Sat/Cable as a competitor or as a companion/driver of HDM?
9) What alternatives are feasible and what kind of timelines (if not HDM, what and when)?