Originally Posted by bjmarchini
I personally don't feel warm and fuzzy about the future of HDM anymore. I started out with an upconverting HTPC. Then added an HD-A3 in mid-January. Xbox addon for my HTPC in February. Updgraded my HTPC for HD. Added a Bluray Drive in April. Bought tons of HD DVD through the B2G1/B1G1/2F$25 deals. Went nuts with the HV B1G1 used HD DVD for $14.99 sales. Got a ton off ebay. Added Blockbuster to my netflix to make online rental nuetral
. Picked up my first Bluray mid April. Picked up a spare HD-A30 in the first week of may for $50.
I was pretty pumped at first. But with all that is going on, I don't feel confident in Bluray anymore. I wonder if Microsoft backed HD DVD only because they wanted their VC-1 codec to be prevalent as well as stalling PS3 sales. I wonder if the reason Universal and Paramount backed HD DVD is because they were stalling releases the majority of their big movies on HDM until the market is saturated with HDM. I wonder if Microsoft changed strategy to online downloads while giving face support to HD DVD to buy them time. I wonder, wonder, wonder and wonder.
I look at this. Bluray players are not dropping. We all know deep down even if we won't admit it that the price mark us <$200 and possible even $100. We all fear that even at $100, these won't necessarily replace DVD as a standard. We all know that BR sales are dependent on HDTV sales which after 8 years only has 35% of the market. You can't find any HDM ads on TV anymore. Manufacturers seem to keep finding reasons to justify a >$300 price (profile 2.0 - even though 1.1 can just as easily play the disk and just has less online interactivity and I never bothered to hook up my HD-A3 to the internet anyway. Have never done the srop in menu thing either... just wanna watch the movie and may an extra or two which BD can do just fine).
The other problem that some people don't seem to get is that DVD does look better on an HDTV and I am not talking about upscaling. Native resolution for DVD is 720x480 and can vary depending on weather it is anamorphic, WS NA or Fullscreen NA. A standard 4:3 display is is only 640x480 interlaced so going to a 16:9 1080i/720p/1080p will allow you to see all the lines of resolution and progressively if you the TV supports it when they upgrade. So most J6Ps will see their DVD looking like HD to them as it will look better than their 4:3 32" Tube TV.
I think folks are content with DVD. They look at "HD" on demand compared to their DVD player and don't see much of difference and figure that HDM isn't any better. Heck, I think alot of folks think Digital Cable is HD... which isn't necessarily true.
So in recap, I don't feel good about the future of HDM. Netflix just released their set top box. HD downloads are going to be closer than most of us want to accept.
Don't take me as an HDM hater. I am heavily invested into HDM probably about $1500 worth so far. I am just being realistic.
Sorry to hear you aren't feeling it for Blu-ray but at least you didn't bring the 'gloom and doom' of the economy in to it.
1. How much is the Netflix box ?
2. How much for the monthly subscription for the box ?
3. How much per movie/viewing ?
4. What resolution/bandwidth will they provide ?
5. What kind connection is required to support the Netflix box ?
6. Players less than $299 have already hit the market. When these players hit below $200, then what ?
7. Blu-ray disc sales have been occuring frequently the last 4 weeks with disc titles low as $11.99 for popular titles.
8. When new Day and Date releases are advertised on TV, they do mention Blu-ray when applicable.
I still don't understand why Blu-ray is supposed to explode into mass adoption since the death of HD DVD.
Why is it so hard to understand that for mass adoption to succeed, the deployment of Blu-ray equipment and titles/discs need to be available and easy to use.
The troublesome 1-3rd gen Blu-ray and HD DVD players would have been a nightmare for J6P with endless updates and disc playback issues.
Is it hard to comprehend that perhaps these new players or maybe the next generation will be more consumer friendly and perhaps require maybe a single FW update or maybe none, which is ideal for mass adoption to succeed.
I also want to note that most J6P's most likely bought 4:3 versions of DVD's when they were available since it filled the entire screen. I wonder what that will look liked stretched on a 16:9 HDTV.
Oh, and I was just at Hollywood Video and their Blu-ray section was about fully rented out and they have about 100+ titles.