Netflix BD disc rental discussion thread - Page 225

Maybe many of those wanting new releases bailed (or simply aren't being sent the discs), while they saw an increase in customers wanting catalog titles Netflix already had in stock.

For example, someone cutting the cord on cable who sampled the idea of watching TV on DVD might be checking out older series, as well.

We all can speculate. Mine is this: The Red line showed a sharp upturn with streaming. To keep this in check they made the decision to cut physical acquisitions.

IMO, the sudden departure of Netflix’s CFO (since inception of Netflix) means there was turmoil over major decisions that was made. My guess, the CFO did not see the same future in streaming as the CEO does/did.

agreed. There are only so many new movies and TV shows to watch, after that (if you don't have cable), you're into catalog stuff.

Thanks very much, Alex. This is very helpful.

I do already have a PS3, and have to agree with you, it's a great machine. I was thinking about just getting another one, but am hesitating due to various reasons. It's off topic to discuss them here. I'll probably need to start a thread for help whenever my Panasonic DMP 35 quits working.

Thanks again.

Just wanted to tell you guys: "Red", which was shown as "Long Wait" on Monday and prompted me to question it, was mailed out yesterday.

I was really worried that they are cutting down the number of BD's acquired.

Thanks.

just sent me Dinner For Schmucks and Get Low, both relatively new and both were on waits almost constantly.

But that doesn't explain what you said - that disc shipments increased. Further, the chart shows acquisitions, not usage. It only shows that cost of streaming acquisitions are now outpacing that of discs. It doesn't even indicate a larger amount of acquisitions - just that it's costing more.

It sounds like Netflix bought fewer discs based on the hope people would stream more, but customers rented more discs than ever despite it. Netflix is paying more for streaming content than ever, according to the chart, but shipping more discs than ever, too. It seems to me, their expenses are going up even as they add revenue.

On the disc front, since most disc acquisitions would be new releases (as opposed to replacing catalog titles), it sounds like Netflix is either seeing less demand for them or people are simply getting discs other than new releases - perhaps having those new releases skipped again and again.

Either way, if what you say is true (disc acquisitions are down, but renting of them is up), it means people are likely renting more existing catalog titles - probably on DVD.

They may be streaming more, as well, to fill time between disc shipments. If people are, indeed streaming more (which is mostly catalog stuff), then it makes sense they're viewing of discs also tends toward catalog stuff. Or, people are returning those catalog titles faster, hoping to win the new release lotto by being more likely to have a disc returning when a new release becomes available.

The standard DVDs? I had requested the BD of GET LOW...but they sent me the standard. SO I go to the site and click on the option "Expected a BD and got standard disc." So they shippped out a replacement...and it was still the standard disc! So I ended up getting it from BB.

uh, no - BD's

i've never been sent a DVD instead of a BD.

Me either ..

One comment about the graph showing disc acquisitions: note it is in dollars, not numbers of discs. So, the recent drop in disc acquisition spend may reflect a lower average cost per disc due to those contracts NF signed, not necessarily fewer discs. I didn't see this mentioned yet so I wanted to point it out.

I went through that with 2012 when it was a new release. They sent the DVD like 3 times, despite me reporting the problem and calling. The CR's suggestion was to delete it from my queue and re-add it (putting me into a very long wait status of course).

I just borrowed it from a co-worker (also a NF subscriber) who got the BD.

And that chart doesn't really say a whole lot, since there's no info about amounts they're purchasing or costs (and does DVD library mean Disc Library?). They could easily be spending less on discs but getting the same amount or more.

I personally prefer the Feedliks chart below. Ignoring the red streaming bars (which is hard), it does show disc shipments down slightly from 2009, and if you extrapolate 2011 out, it looks like it'll only be about 75% of what they were in 2010. But keep in mind the chart is only for Feedfliks users, so may not be representative of Netflix as a whole. Unless someone has better numbers about disc shipments...of course it stands to reason that with them increasing their customer base as fast as they are, you would think there'd be more disc shipments (but the Feedfliks numbers aren't reflecting that)



Of course, there's this from Home Media Magazine (which implies shipments were up in 2010):
Netflix: Disc rental shipment to decline in 2011

THe admins have now wisely changed their minds and reinstated
unclemat's useful thread, which was created for the purpose of identifying BD titles available at BB but not offered by NF. A bunch of them have already have been listed and there are no doubt many more to come.

Please keep in mind that I have no inside knowledge of Netflix or Blockbuster. I just repeat info that has been released to the public.

IIRC, the following was from Netflix back in 2010.

Well, he would, considering they are doing everything in their power to stop offering discs. You can't rent discs you don't have.

i laugh at whoever made that chart - there will be no discs after 2020, let alone discs by mail.

Really, like that would be difficult to predict.

With Blockbuster looking more and more completely dead as the days go by, I can only imagine the boost in piracy the lack of a source of rental discs it will probably fuel.

While I'm sure that a significant jump will occur in piracy, studios are no doubt hoping that the increased jump in VOD sales will make up for it. It'll be interesting to see how that works out for them.

What'll be more interesting is how it's going to affect BD adoption and growth. Who wants a player when the only way you can watch anything on it is to go and actually buy a disc? Ok, you could go to Redbox and deal with their limited selection to get something that's been delayed 28 days (assuming the studios don't increase that delay like some have been talking). Not the best solution when millions of people are used to getting discs by mail.

There are not good days ahead for renters of physical media.

True. I imagine someone will come up with something that will let capture any stream, decrypt it and burn it to disc.

But, the streams suck and are not a substitute for bd even if they were captured...

The chart was part of a presentation by Netflix themselves. People were saying the same about CD's in the 90's, many predicted there would be no CD's by 2010. I suggest you look around the next time you are in Target, Best Buy, Walmart, Fye's, etc., etc. You may be surprised at all the racks of CD's for sale in 2011. Myself, I am not sure how they (CD) manage to hang-on so well without a replacement of all the great pop/rock bands of the 60's and 70's. I know my collection saturated many years ago. I still buy several CD's a year in the New Age, Light Jazz, Classical category.

I would speculate there is a clause in every IPTV license from the studio that stipulates that if the DRM is compromised then the service provider must stop providing a stream for that title. It makes no sense to capture a crappy stream when folks just rip a rental DVD.

there is a difference there - I love CD (rips) because the quality is higher. I don't buy CD's anymore though, I pay for tickets to shows and i'll maybe buy the aac copy but borrow the CD for Apple Lossless (i'd buy that if they sold it!!!!). The difference is, DVD quality is already behind BD's and 720p downloads.

24-bit 48hz music is in no way on the public's radar right now, and won't be for a long time. However, BD and downloads are - and if downloads get to 1080p/TrueHD, then there will be no need for BD's as long as 95% of the public have fast internet by then.

Streaming 1080p video and lossless HD audio is my dream scenario. That would finally solve our problems, so long as the providers didn't insist on ala carte prices for the content. Unfortunately, nobody knows when, if ever, that kind of streaming capability well become economically viable. It certainly hasn't happened yet.

definitely - but in the next 10 years it should be a standard, and we will be into 4K tv's by then.

Good point .. what confuses me is why the studios would not eliminate the 28 day window rather than increase .. other than an attempt at more sales .. based on the continued failure of B&M rental anyway ..

IOW, if NF / Redbox continue to be the leader in physical rental, and most folks are not going to buy a disc anyway and will likely wait the 28 days .. then the 28 days would become the de facto new release date ..

If they dropped the price on a new BD / DVD down to what a stream from VUDU or ZUNE or PS3 Network cost, then perhaps we'd buy the disk at what the REAL release date was and either save it or toss it after watching .. who gets in a hurry when a film like "Burlesque" comes out .. ??

Years ago, I would speculate (knowing that the studios hate rental) that if prices on buying the content dropped to somewhere near the rental cost, all rental would probably go away .. remember those self destruct discs .. ??

US internet speed is a joke. We are not even in the top 10 list in the world in internet speed (2Mbps). Imagine someone in the US trying to download a BD movie with one HD audio track (25-35gb)

very true. Honestly, with all the overhead cost for promotion and factories to buy the raw materials, machines, time, paying workers - that's what you're buying with a disc. With downloads, you're paying the one time cost of someone to master it, and then for the server storage space and bandwidth. Sure, there will be someone creating an ad for the movie at some point, but that will most likely be a lot less money than a TV ad since it'll just be mixed in with a bunch of other ads on whatever system you're selling it on. Just seems like it would make the most sense for everyone to cut out all the middle men and just sell the movie file direct, for a percentage above cost - something reasonable.

definitely. But 10 years ago I was one of the only people i knew with cable internet. Now almost no one has dial up. And it'll only get exponential from there since the infrastructure is mostly in place.

But also in that time you know they'll find a way to compress the files enough with crazy new schemes.

The beauty of electronics has always been how much better the technology becomes in such a short time so maybe we will have have streamed 1080p, or better, video and lossless HD audio long before 10 years pass. I hope so, anyway.