Netflix BD disc rental discussion thread - Page 279

Originally Posted by R Johnson 

According to the recent financial report / investor letter at http://ir.netflix.com/

The 25.47 domestic (USA) streaming paid subscribers generated a 109M$ profit contribution in the 4th quarter. 109/25.47 = $4.28 per subscriber.

International streaming contributed a loss of 105M$....

The 8.05M paid disc subscribers generated a 128M$ profit contribution in the 4th quarter. 128/8.05 = $15.90 per subscriber.

Please remind me why Netflix wants to kill off disc rental.

Originally Posted by NetworkTV 

Too true.

First the discs will go away.
Next downloads you can own will go away.
Then all-you-can-eat streaming plans will go away.

What we'll be left with is pay-per-view streaming.

Originally Posted by mr. wally 

all hail redbox!

may you live and thrive

Originally Posted by mr. wally 

one analyst is saying netflix streaming model is just a bubble. with the huge licensing fees they signed onto, the only way they can maintain profitability is to keep addins new streaming subs.

but that can't go one forever, and once subs level off or decrease, he see nf crashing down.

seems to me given the profit margins, they might want to keep propping up their mail rental biz

Originally Posted by mgkdragn 

With a planned Worldwide expansion in the works, it's going to be a long long time before NF runs out of subscribers ..

I can find you an analyst that slams about any stock out there .. Apple / Google / just name any ..

On the flip side, I can find you an analyst that touts what really do end up being dogs .. can you say Blockbuster .. ??

The thing is, NF has not been a really profitable company .. because it does invest in it's tech and it is expanding ..

What you do have, though, is a very competent management team, an app that's built into about any TV / BD / Device out there and a brand that has become a household name ..

What can hurt it is studio refusal to sell the content or the continued escalation of content cost both on the streaming side .. NF is very vulnerable on those points .. the adding of subscribers is really a non-issue ..

Originally Posted by mgkdragn 

With a planned Worldwide expansion in the works, it's going to be a long long time before NF runs out of subscribers ..

I can find you an analyst that slams about any stock out there .. Apple / Google / just name any ..

On the flip side, I can find you an analyst that touts what really do end up being dogs .. can you say Blockbuster .. ??

The thing is, NF has not been a really profitable company .. because it does invest in it's tech and it is expanding ..

What you do have, though, is a very competent management team, an app that's built into about any TV / BD / Device out there and a brand that has become a household name ..

What can hurt it is studio refusal to sell the content or the continued escalation of content cost both on the streaming side .. NF is very vulnerable on those points .. the adding of subscribers is really a non-issue ..

Originally Posted by NetworkTV 

Often, rights are given as licenses based on subscriber numbers, which means more subscribers means more costs.

In the end, it's not getting more subscribers that will help them pay the bills - it's raising the price of service. They'll have no choice.

Originally Posted by NetworkTV 

The thing is, any expansion they do may also be countered by increases in rights for all those additional markets, which studios generally are very skittish in handing out econimcally. They get some sweetheart percentages for foreign distribution from entities abroad compared to the US, where distributers get better deals.

Often, rights are given as licenses based on subscriber numbers, which means more subscribers means more costs.

In the end, it's not getting more subscribers that will help them pay the bills - it's raising the price of service. They'll have no choice.

Originally Posted by mr. wally 

all hail redbox!

may you live and thrive

Originally Posted by mgkdragn 

.. but you can bet that if NF raised prices by 50 cents across the board tomorrow, folks would be marching down the street with pitchforks and torches .. you can remember when they cut free streaming and raised prices a while back and folks here on AVS went a little over the top ..

Originally Posted by Marc_G 

Here's a new one...

On the Netflix new releases this week page ( http://dvd.netflix.com/AllNewReleases ) It lists under TV a Cinemax series called Femmes Fatales. I tried putting it in my queue, and it will only let me save it to the unknown release queue, not the active discs queue.

Never seen anything like that before. Any ideas what's up with it?

Marc

Originally Posted by NetworkTV 

...yeah...but...

In my case, I dropped streaming because it would have added over $6 a month to my bill because they didn't have a combined service discount. Had they knock a few bucks off for having both, I would have kept it at the time and chalked it up to things being more expensive. There's no reason they couldn't, since having both would mean not taking full advantage of either. Instead, i dumped streaming and turned around discs faster to make up for not having streaming for those occasional times when I wouldn't have a disc at home.
I only recently added it back because there are a few movies and Tv shows that I can't get on disc, but are available via streaming. Once I watch those, I might dump it again.

Originally Posted by 42Plasmaman 

Another blow to the edge Netflix had on Blockbuster.

Postal Service to say goodbye to mail delivery on Saturdays
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/postal-service-say-goodbye-mail-delivery-saturdays-1B8262819

Originally Posted by NetworkTV 

I'm not sure this is as bad as you think.

Think about it: for most of us, Saturday is when we send discs BACK to get them to Netflix in time for new release Tuesday. That will still happen - you'll just have to drop the disc off at the post office instead of your home mail box. Since I'm on a walking route, I have to do that anyway.

As for incoming discs, if you want something for the weekend, you'll just have to plan around a Friday arrival. Those with PO Boxes will likely still see Saturday delivery.

It sucks, but I think most of us can work around it. Some of us remember when Netflix didn't do any business on Saturdays - even with mail delivery available.

Honestly, I think this is the Postal service moving backward, though. When competition is eating away your business, you need to do something the rest aren't doing. The right move would be to add Sunday service to set themselves apart from the other options. Limiting your services only gives people reason to use other options to fill in the blanks. When they do that, they're one more step closer to giving up on the USPS completely.

When you're in trouble, you have to work harder - not less.

Originally Posted by mgkdragn 

USPS main financial problem stems from rural delivery .. RR mail delivery is very expensive .. there has been talk about moving to a 3 day a week rural delivery schedule and giving RR customers a PO box free as compensation ..

as well, since no one else delivers letters at 46 cents and likely no company wants to, IMO expanding your hours will just cost you more, not increase revenue ..

Originally Posted by keenan 

Rural is no doubt a problem but unless I'm mistaken their main financial problem is the insane pension funding requirements the operation has been forced to follow as set by Congress.

What’s the Real Story Behind the Postal Crisis?

Originally Posted by mgkdragn 

USPS main financial problem stems from rural delivery .. RR mail delivery is very expensive .. there has been talk about moving to a 3 day a week rural delivery schedule and giving RR customers a PO box free as compensation ..

as well, since no one else delivers letters at 46 cents and likely no company wants to, IMO expanding your hours will just cost you more, not increase revenue ..

Originally Posted by Explorertv 

I currently have Blockbuster by Mail. All of their new release blurays are Very Long Wait. I have one movie in my queue that has been Very Long Wait for over a year.

How is Netflix on new release blurays? Do they have a good supply or are most Long Waits.

I am thinking about putting my Blockbuster account on hold or cancelling and trying Netflix.

Originally Posted by mgkdragn 

I've never had a problem getting a new release on Tuesday as long as my return timing is good .. after new release Tuesday, it can get into a long wait scenario ..

Originally Posted by mgkdragn 

I've never had a problem getting a new release on Tuesday as long as my return timing is good .. after new release Tuesday, it can get into a long wait scenario ..

Originally Posted by mailiang 

The advantage of streaming over disc is convenience and price. You can access a ton of movies and watch them instantly. Even at 8 bucks a month the service is still a bargain. On the other hand, Netflix should come up with a discount package that encourages subscribers to use both. What the future holds for discs remains to be seen, but as Ken Pohlmann's S&V article implies, the demand for replicated formats will eventually fade away. (Post 8329)


Ian

Originally Posted by mgkdragn 

^^^ and therein lies the solution for many folks .. stop renting discs and wait for the content to appear on the stream .. yes, it can take some time, yes it won't be BD quality, but if someone wants the lowest possible cost, that's it..

Originally Posted by NetworkTV 

That's all well and good if people want to do that, but what I don't like is being pushed in that direction artificially because streaming happens to be the latest thing.

It's like every device now insists that you do everything "in the cloud". That's all fine if the cloud is there, but that isn't always the case. Plus, we're creating yet a new class of users that only keep their stuff in the cloud with no local backups - then lose their stuff when the service either gets hacked or goes under and the servers get shut down.

You'd think that with the number of photo sharing sites that have come and gone just in the last decade, people would be a bit wary about depending on such things to always be there.

Originally Posted by NetworkTV 

My problem is, I really can't access "tons of movies and watch them instantly" unless i want to watch stuff I have no desire to watch.

Originally Posted by mailiang 

What are you looking for? For the newer blockbusters I usually rent BD's. For the indies, I usually stream. And their a plenty of really good indies, many of which surprised me and are a lot better then some of the crappy new releases I have seen. There's also a lot of garbage. I would also like too see more old classics, but I can't say that there isn't a good selection of movies.



Ian