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Strategies for HD DVD, serious brainstorming only  

post #1 of 514
Thread Starter 
This thread is for serious HD DVD fans to discuss realistic options for the HD DVD format in light of the announcement that Warner/NewLine has gone Blu.

Please do not respond if you are a Blu-ray fanboy. I don't want this to turn into a format war discussion.

So, it's been a few days for the news to sink in. I was curious as to what others think might be the next possible steps for the format, if there are any, that might be positive. Sure we can postulate that Paramount and Universal will go nuetral, or they will both go blu, but that's not what I am getting at. Are there any real options for HD DVD to survive and/or win?

Here are some strategies:

1) Paramount and Universal stay HD DVD With no rumours or rumblings about going nuetral. In other words, they stay committed to the format both in action and publically. This seems very unlikely. They don't want a fractured market any more than any of us do. They know the long term viability is with one format. However, this strategy might be taken if they have done studies that show the HD format will never go beyond niche. For instance, if they believe that in the future both BLu-ray will never take over DVD regardless if every studio converts they may just stay where they are. Remember, neither Paramount nor Universal have been "offered" $500 million like the rumoured WB payout. And, now with WB defecting, it's unlikely that going Blu will net them any good sign on bonuses. In fact, at this point, they probably will not get any favors to turn. Sony doesn't need to since in their eyes it's inevitable that Paramount and Universal will have to turn. If this scenario plays out, then we will live with two formats, and it will stall physical media. This will mean High Def movies will take longer to become mainstream with DVD still winning. HOwever, Paramount is already excited about online movies (Xbox Live for instance) and a number other other avenues for revenue. Perhaps these two studios continue to focus on new ventures and view physical media as only a portion of their strategy, thus content with partial market share. THey could also rationalize their smaller high def market by saying anyone not getting HD DVD can still enjoy their movies on SD DVD.

If this strategy were to be played out it would only be temporary. The goals would be survival and I would envision it lasting only as long as needed to get combo players in an affordable price range. If they held out, CE manufacturers would be forced to evaluated including both standards in their players. At some point, I would say 2 years, combo players would be cheap enough. Remember, this was never possible with the two physically different VHS/Beta standards. But with all discs being the same size, it's quite possible that a combo player would eventually be the norm. For instance there were two completely different standards for CD-R/CD+R and also DVD-R and DVD+R that required different drives when they all of them came out. Over time, manufacturer's said screw it, we will just support all standards. I don't see why that won't happen.

But it would require Paramount and Universal to take the stance that they are not wavering and sticking to their guns.

I believe this as the best possible scenario at this point for HD DVD to survive. IT's not the most likely and not the best for the market, but hey, I am talking as an HD DVD fan that is exploring options that would save the format.

2) Microsoft or CD Partner introduces an XBOX 360 that has a built in HD DVD drive. Ok, this was rumoured and still may be announced this week. I think it's unlikely to be announced though, now that WB has dropped the bomb. But if it does, it could continue to grow the HD DVD player base. Many of the original Xbox 360 early adopters, and those that bought the elite would get this, as well as new customers. Hey, it would piss us off, but we would find a way to "upgrade". Just like every year or other year those that love their iPods find a way to part with another $349 to get the latest version of their MP3 player. In addition to those sales, customers that would be evaluating the more expensive PS3 might now see a similarly featured Xbox with high def movies for the same price and perhaps it would steal market from PS3. Not that the Xbox needs help there, it's got somewhere in the neighboorhood of 12 million boxes sold to Sony's 5 million PS3s. But future buyers looking to the PS3 for both the gaming and movie playing make go the Xbox (and HD DVD) route if given a choice.

This would slow Blu-ray but not stop it. Frankly, nothing will stop Blu-ray now. But again, if it slowed it enough, it might give time for everyone (CE manufactures, retailers, consumers) to just say screw it, to get movies from all studios I need a combo player.

3) Microsoft makes major investment with PC vendors to subsized including HD DVD drives in PCs. Ok, so all this does is ensure the standard stays around. It does nothing to help the format in the CE market. But if they were to do that, it would again slow adoption of Blu in the PC market. This seems highly unlikely since MS has shown little overt or public interest in the format war. Sure they sided with HD DVD but they have no love for either format nor do they care about either format. In many respects, their only reason to get behind HD DVD was to slow the PS3's sales rates. And in that, they have succeeded greatly.

4) Toshiba announces combo players. What does this do? Well, it doesn't give any hope of HD DVD winning. In fact quite the opposite. However, it does do one thing for HD DVD. It gives all of us faith that at least some CE will continue to support HD DVD long enough so taht our library of HD DVD movies won't be obsolete. See, there needs to be some support for HD DVD into the future for us to feel safe. Otherwise, once our current player breaks we are Sh1t out of luck. If Toshibat can make cost effective combo players it might also give some leadership to the other combo player makers too; they may continue to make combo players.


5) HD DVD forum/Toshiba or whoever, lowers licensing and prices drop on HDDVD low enought that all manufactures eventually add it as another supported standard in their players. Sure, Sony will never, but then they will just look like they have one less feature. You see the only hope we have is that HD DVD survives to remain a standard long enough to become another logo on all CE manufacture's devices. Sort of like how DTS was an underdog and costly to support in the beggining but it was a differenciator of those higher DVD players that did support it. Then it eventually just became another feature.

6) HD DVD sales grow slowly in the next 6 months. To that of 50/50. Partially due to many more HD DVD players that were sold over the holidays. This prompts Toshiba to continue support and Microsoft continues to support it as well. I think this is unlikely given trends.

7) Paramount/Universal is given big incentives (that is if Sony has any more cash) to go Blu to end it all. Paramount/Universal/WB offer trade up program for current HD DVD owners to swap discs either for free, or for small fee. Send in your disc get new one, send in your UPC get coupon for store purchase, something. THis might work well for both Paramount and WB who have been making titles on both formats already. THis might get us further good will than continued BOGO free offers and yet be pretty much the same cost to the studios. Universal it will take some time.

So, most of my scenarious involve HD DVD just hanging in there long enough for combo players to become the norm. Sure it seems long shot, but as technology progresses, all competing formats have been incorporated up to now (other than the two high def audio standards).

What are your thoughts? Again, please only post if you take this seriously, if you care about HD DVD, and would like to contribute. I am not trying to make this a new Blu-ray vs HD DVD thread.
post #2 of 514
Yes, let it go already.

One format is better for the HDM market. No need to continue this ******** war.
post #3 of 514
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stevie76 View Post

Yes, let it go already.

One format is better for the HDM market. No need to continue this ******** war.

Hear Hear
post #4 of 514
Why would this even be in the general media section?
post #5 of 514
the only way that hd dvd can survive a few more weeks if it can make one or more of the company's change from blue ray exclusives to neutral or jump to the other side I think thats the only way this can happen.
post #6 of 514
Posting a thread is fine, but if it's talking about strategies for HD-DVD why isn't it in the HD-DVD forum? Did those get closed or something?
post #7 of 514
I would vote this to be moved into the HD DVD software section.

To the topic:
Continue to support the HD DVD player owners by releasing DVD/HD DVD Twins (only). DVD market is still huge, and this way customers can be teached over time about HD and encouraged to buy a HD DVD compatible player. This way, HD can even be advertised as "special feature".
post #8 of 514
Fritzilla, while you have obviously put a lot of effort and thought behind the post, the message is very clear after the Warner announcement.

It is best for all folks (red/blue/purple) to get behind the Blu-Ray format to ensure its success over SD-DVD.

As an HD-DVD supporter I just think the following needs to happen.

1) Toshiba/Universal/Paramount should concede the war and work towards announcing schedules for BD releases.
2) BDA and Toshiba should work towards helping the million or so consumers who chose the defeated format and ensure HD-DVD gets legacy support somewhere down the line in a few players.
3) BDA should continue with aggressive marketing of the format because defeating SD-DVD and taking the format beyond enthusiast support is going to take a hell lot of work.
4) For new HD-DVD owners, WB (who I still think screwed the consumer by not announcing this pre-christmas and arguably assisted in creating upwards of 200k new HD-DVD owners) should come up with some exchange program/coupons for loyal customers to purchase new BD titles.
5) Work at increased pace towards solving the whole profile nonsense and announce full-spec players soon.

Now I realize, BDA/WB need do nothing of the sort and milk the victory for what it is worth, but if they are serious about the war against SD-DVD, they will do good by helping early adopters and the few hundred thousand folks who jumped over the Christmas period switch over seamlessly to the Blu-side.

I, for one, welcome my new Blu overlords. The war's over guys and it was a good fight which ultimately helped consumers on both sides but let's be gracious in letting it go.
post #9 of 514
Quote:
Originally Posted by oolitic View Post

Fritzilla, while you have obviously put a lot of effort and thought behind the post, the message is very clear after the Warner announcement.

It is best for all folks (red/blue/purple) to get behind the Blu-Ray format to ensure its success over SD-DVD.

As an HD-DVD supporter I just think the following needs to happen.

1) Toshiba/Universal/Paramount should concede the war and work towards announcing schedules for BD releases.
2) BDA and Toshiba should work towards helping the million or so consumers who chose the defeated format and ensure HD-DVD gets legacy support somewhere down the line in a few players.
3) BDA should continue with aggressive marketing of the format because defeating SD-DVD and taking the format beyond enthusiast support is going to take a hell lot of work.
4) For new HD-DVD owners, WB (who I still think screwed the consumer by not announcing this pre-christmas and arguably assisted in creating upwards of 200k new HD-DVD owners) should come up with some exchange program/coupons for loyal customers to purchase new BD titles.
5) Work at increased pace towards solving the whole profile nonsense and announce full-spec players soon.

Now I realize, BDA/WB need do nothing of the sort and milk the victory for what it is worth, but if they are serious about the war against SD-DVD, they will do good by helping early adopters and the few hundred thousand folks who jumped over the Christmas period switch over seamlessly to the Blu-side.

I, for one, welcome my new Blu overlords. The war's over guys and it was a good fight which ultimately helped consumers on both sides but let's be gracious in letting it go.

And I appreciate your opinion but that's about what it is.


to OP:

- HD DVD Group sticking together and Microsoft really putting some weight. They saw that Toshiba can't fight this alone.
- 1 BD studio (Disney preferably) to go neutral TL 51 and some financial incentives will do it. They have until June 2008 to persuade them.
- Release all HD DVD studios blockbusters scheduled this year that are exclusive on twin discs - A LOT OF THEM this year
- Permanently drop A3 to $99

and that should do it, HD DVD wins by the beginning of 2009 as Warner would most likely realize what they knew to begin with and by June 2008 we would have A BUNCH of people with $99 players in their houses.
post #10 of 514
Quote:
Originally Posted by BozsterHD View Post

And I appreciate your opinion but that's about what it is.

Wow... that was harsh. I see what you did there, on the surface it appears that you "appreciate his opinions", but then in a very nuanced manner, dismiss his opinions by saying "that's about what it is". Quite bold, considering your post above consists mostly of what Webster would define as an "opinion".

But again why isn't this in the HD-DVD forum?
post #11 of 514
Quote:
Originally Posted by BozsterHD View Post

And I appreciate your opinion but that's about what it is.


to OP:

- HD DVD Group sticking together and Microsoft really putting some weight. They saw that Toshiba can't fight this alone.
- 1 BD studio (Disney preferably) to go neutral TL 51 and some financial incentives will do it. They have until June 2008 to persuade them.
- Release all HD DVD studios blockbusters scheduled this year that are exclusive on twin discs - A LOT OF THEM this year
- Permanently drop A3 to $99

.

yes, opinions are about what opinions are. great assertion.

by the way, MS is not going to put any weight. if anything, it's going to take off weight. MS doesn't care enough about HD-DVD to get this involved. They see warner rolling out and now they're most likely even less motivated. they're not goingt o spend on something that'sbeing abandoned. Furthermore, I am not aware that their association with hd-dvd resulted as a desire to enter the next gen dvd market. They wanted to make a little money off of hollywood, not take the responsibility of leading (and paying for) the adoption of the next major optical disc format.
post #12 of 514
Quote:
Originally Posted by BozsterHD View Post

And I appreciate your opinion but that's about what it is.

Yup that is my opinion.

But the simple fact is that there is no point fretting over how to fight back against Blu-Ray.

I am sure everyone will agree that Blu-Ray presents a far better option than 480p shill. Also, any fightback will surely doom HDM completely. Most HD-DVD supporters will take a while before investing their money in BD. Confusing this any further is not going to help.
post #13 of 514
The only strategy for toshiba is a graceful exit strategy, so they don't look like fools prolonging a pointless battle.
post #14 of 514
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_Media_Disc

Despite the criticisms when UMD can survive this long why can't HD DVD ? UMD still sells well in Japan.
post #15 of 514
These threads are exactly why it was the better for Warner to make the decision now rather than later.

The longer the format wars carries on, the more die-hard fanatics it will attract to either camp, the harder the fall will be when one has to die.
post #16 of 514
Quote:
Originally Posted by oolitic View Post

Yup that is my opinion.

But the simple fact is that there is no point fretting over how to fight back against Blu-Ray.

I am sure everyone will agree that Blu-Ray presents a far better option than 480p shill. Also, any fightback will surely doom HDM completely. Most HD-DVD supporters will take a while before investing their money in BD. Confusing this any further is not going to help.

Nope, what I will personally do is if HD DVD Group sticks to their guns.. I will continue buying $99 full featured HD DVD players, I will buy all major blockbusters coming our way this year including IronMan, new Hulk, Mummy 3, Hellboy 2 etc etc not to mention Batman Begins that you probably won't see on Blu-Ray (at least not very soon - because of "format limitations") and by june something will probaby get worked out with TL51 so Disney starts supporting HD DVD too in addition to Blu-Ray. Having Disney/Buena Vista on HD DVD camp as well would get us to pre-Warner-Blu situation and guarantee HD DVD win by 2009 in market penetration alone. Add twin-discs to this scenario and it can be good night permanently.

Of course, this is all MY OWN opinion and relies on the fact that HD DVD Group sticks together. Any speculation prior to end of CES and official response, including WAR IS OVER is premature.
post #17 of 514
Quote:
Originally Posted by lgans316 View Post

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_Media_Disc

Despite the criticisms when UMD can survive this long why can't HD DVD ? UMD still sells well in Japan.

Probably because HD-DVD players don't sell like PSPs, and HD-DVD doesn't have the support that the PSP has, which would be the support of any game publisher which releases games on the system.

Quote:
Originally Posted by BozsterHD View Post

I will continue buying $99 full featured HD DVD players,
Of course, this is all MY OWN opinion and relies on the fact that HD DVD Group sticks together. Any speculation prior to end of CES and official response, including WAR IS OVER is premature.

That was a sale. They're not $99 anymore.

Speculation that the war is over IS premature, yes. But speculation that the war will be over pretty soon is justified.
post #18 of 514
Quote:
Originally Posted by fritzilla View Post

3) Microsoft makes major investment with PC vendors to subsized including HD DVD drives in PCs. Ok, so all this does is ensure the standard stays around. It does nothing to help the format in the CE market. But if they were to do that, it would again slow adoption of Blu in the PC market.

Customer: "Hey what's this crap? I want a BD burner there, not a useless ROM drive."
post #19 of 514
Quote:
Originally Posted by K.L. View Post

Customer: "Hey what's this crap? I want a BD burner there, not a useless ROM drive."

Nope, it's going to be more like:

Hey what's this Blu/HD DVD crap burner here I'm paying $400 for when I can get 1TB hard drives for $200 and usb sticks with GBs of space ( both rewritable).

The only reason optical media SHOULD be pushed is for transition of movies between future download HD and streaming and DVD and to satisfy aficionados like myself who like to have the library of discs. Everything else is again milking consumers for more money for expensive media, slow write and access, and limited rewriteability if possible. With terabyte hard drives that are shrinking in size at incredible rate, new technologies like WirelessHD, Wireless USB etc etc, we are already way past 50gb optical discs.
post #20 of 514
Quote:
Originally Posted by MmmmTeeVee View Post

Probably because HD-DVD players don't sell like PSPs, and HD-DVD doesn't have the support that the PSP has, which would be the support of any game publisher which releases games on the system.

After recently coming back from Japan I can tell you that the environment there is completely different than the one here. A huge portion of your day is spent on the trains and as such people resort to their phones or portable devices such as the PSP for entertainment. In two weeks' time I saw more PSPs being played in public than I will ever see in my life here in the US. Despite all this, UMD sales in Japan are still not as high as Wikipedia would have you believe.
post #21 of 514
There is no plan B.

Warners move tipped the scales.
HD DVD support will wither away very fast.
First the hardware retailers are going to drop HD DVD players. We will see consumers are going to ignore HD DVD. There will be minimal (bargain hunters) (if at all) influx of new consumers buying into HD DVD.
Paramount/Dreamworks will flip and Universal can't hold out on it's own.

It's over for HD DVD.

I predicted that warner was going exclusive rather sooner than later and it happened.
I thought HD DVD was the obvious choice for warner given their history with the DVD Forum. But I did not rule out br.

The disc sales ratio numbers are not the reason why w went blu. Any analyst can see what it took for the BDA to sustain the 2:1 ratio after the Paramount descision.
They BDA members didn't have a downward pricing spiral in mind.

One shop doing 160m and the other doing 100m is not a good reason to close a 100m business.

I fear that the warner move has to do with, I suspect, the stalling HDM growth the last quarters. The adoption rate to HDM is far to low. HDM adoption showed signs of being stuck in a niche market. Warner must have come to that conclusion or they where payed big time by BDA members otherwise there most consumer/industry unfriendly move fefies all logic.
The sales number we saw where mostly to the early adopter consumer base fueled by bogo's and early adopters going neutral.

Reasons fror slow consumer adoption:
High price levels.
Consumer apathy: SD DVD is good enough for 90% of the market (screen size : viewing distance)
Format war

Warner doesn't care anymore about replacing DVD


Blu ray is not going to replace DVD.
BDA members are serious about establishing higher prive levels for HDM. They still think this outdated new format adoption model is going to work. Think again thid time the competition is not a tape with long spool times and lousy image quality.

Warner doomed the industry to a multi billion dollar investement to get br production capacity to mass market levels.
Higher authoring costs and many QC issues with the myrad of java issues across different player implementations will be a big problem. Early adopters may accept longer loading times and bugs associated with the vm technology but normal consumers will not.


Indies are robbed of the option to release HDM with lower setup fees. AACS is mandatory now. A sad day for real movie buffs.

For other regions it's bad.
New br releases are 34 to 40 euro retail. $45 ..$50
HDM adoption in europe is not happening with these prices.
Although br does show a better sales ratio it wasn't going anywhere.
The reason HD DVD does poor is that Toshiba never was one of the big cd electric brands. Beacuse of that retail support for HD DVD was abysmal from the get go.

Warner picked the format that is going to make the most money from a HDM in a niche market.
post #22 of 514
I agree that BD won't take over DVD. Perhaps I'm understanding this wrong, but I've always thought that high definition media was simply an ancillary source of profit for the studios which at the same time benefits consumers who enjoy HD content by giving them a choice to choose between hi-def or standard-def. I don't understand why HD must overtake and "kill" DVD for it to survive.
post #23 of 514
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank Derks View Post

There is no plan B.

Warners move tipped the scales.
HD DVD support will wither away very fast.
First the hardware retailers are going to drop HD DVD players. We will see consumers are going to ignore HD DVD. There will be minimal (bargain hunters) (if at all) influx of new consumers buying into HD DVD.
Paramount/Dreamworks will flip and Universal can't hold out on it's own.

It's over for HD DVD.

I predicted that warner was going exclusive rather sooner than later and it happened.
I thought HD DVD was the obvious choice for warner given their history with the DVD Forum. But I did not rule out br.

The disc sales ratio numbers are not the reason why w went blu. Any analyst can see what it took for the BDA to sustain the 2:1 ratio after the Paramount descision.
They BDA members didn't have a downward pricing spiral in mind.

One shop doing 160m and the other doing 100m is not a good reason to close a 100m business.

I fear that the warner move has to do with, I suspect, the stalling HDM growth the last quarters. The adoption rate to HDM is far to low. HDM adoption showed signs of being stuck in a niche market. Warner must have
The sales number we saw where mostly to the early adopter consumer base fueled by bogo's and early adopters going neutral.

Reasons fror slow consumer adoption:
High price levels.
Consumer apathy: SD DVD is good enough for 90% of the market (screen size : viewing distance)
Format war

Warner doesn't care anymore about replacing DVD


Blu ray is not going to replace DVD.
BDA members are serious about establishing higher prive levels for HDM. They still think this outdated new format adoption model is going to work. Think again thid time the competition is not a tape with long spool times and lousy image quality.

Warner doomed the industry to a multi billion dollar investement to get br production capacity to mass market levels.
Higher authoring costs and many QC issues with the myrad of java issues across different player implementations will be a big problem. Early adopters may accept longer loading times and bugs associated with the vm technology but normal consumers will not.


Indies are robbed of the option to release HDM with lower setup fees. AACS is mandatory now. A sad day for real movie buffs.

For other regions it's bad.
New br releases are 34 to 40 euro retail. $45 ..$50
HDM adoption in europe is not happening with these prices.
Although br does show a better sales ratio it wasn't going anywhere.
The reason HD DVD does poor is that Toshiba never was one of the big cd electric brands. Beacuse of that retail support for HD DVD was abysmal from the get go.

Warner picked the format that is going to make the most money from a HDM in a niche market.

I can agree with this. But again, even though I do share your sentiment that it might be over, I still think that if HD DVD wants they can turn it around, much harder, but if they push fast they can, but unfortunately in today's world, people like to be with a winner and this might discourage unity within HD DVD Group. We will see. It's too early though, it's been just 2 days, I'd like to see what will happen and if it really is over.
post #24 of 514
Quote:
Originally Posted by jling84 View Post

I agree that BD won't take over DVD. Perhaps I'm understanding this wrong, but I've always thought that high definition media was simply an ancillary source of profit for the studios which at the same time benefits consumers who enjoy HD content by giving them a choice to choose between hi-def or standard-def. I don't understand why HD must overtake and "kill" DVD for it to survive.

Good question. And the answer IS, are you ready?

GREED!

Everybody is losing money. Consumer is getting great cheap stuff with DVD, but studios and CE companies are bleeding.

Now they have to do something to cut off DVD and replace it with something they can milk us for with higher prices and you can bet your ass they are trying to NOT make the same mistake again (in Blu-Ray case) as they did with DVD and allow Chinese influence unless it's HEAVILY controlled. They will try to keep Blu-Ray player/software prices as high as possible as they need money, but again they'll try to drop it to somewhat affordable cause they are now offering better quality of movies. The beauty for everyone involved here except the consumer is that they get a fresh start with pricing. Now they will never allow players to go below $100 for example. They know that's where they are now with DVD and it's not working for them. They want more. Studios are in heaven as they will get a chance to charge $35-$40 for movies now day/date and $20 for older releases. This was $15.99 and $9.99 for current DVD pricing for the most part. Overall, they all think, those who don't have money will buy DVDs.

It was a big no no what we got from Toshiba. Same thing, but fully featured, pacing the way for another wave of $60 HD players where we all get to watch hi-def movies (rich or poor) everywhere.

Sigh, unfortunately this is the world we live in. Obviously even after Warner, we have witnessed that we really never had a say in this. It was all backdoor deals anyways.
post #25 of 514
Look at the DVD Audio and sacd format war. The parallels are frightening.

Br will continue to grow slowly but long before it becomes a serious threat to SD DVD there will be other technologies. VOD, ss format etc.

Bandwidth for downloads will not be an issue. When analog is dropped from cable lot's and lot's of bandwidth becomes available for VOD.
post #26 of 514
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank Derks View Post

Look at the DVD Audio and sacd format war. The parallels are frightening.

Br will continue to grow slowly but long before it becomes a serious threat to SD DVD there will be other technologies. VOD, ss format etc.

Bandwidth for downloads will not be an issue. When analog is dropped from cable lot's and lot's of bandwidth becomes available for VOD.


Your posts sir are a joy to read. Very lucid and real. I salute you
post #27 of 514
Quote:
Originally Posted by jling84 View Post

After recently coming back from Japan I can tell you that the environment there is completely different than the one here. A huge portion of your day is spent on the trains and as such people resort to their phones or portable devices such as the PSP for entertainment. In two weeks' time I saw more PSPs being played in public than I will ever see in my life here in the US. Despite all this, UMD sales in Japan are still not as high as Wikipedia would have you believe.

UMD sales in Japan may not be high but it is still being SOLD. Same applies to MiniDisc players / recorders. There is always a market for stuffs that appear obsolete or dead.
post #28 of 514
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank Derks View Post

Look at the DVD Audio and sacd format war. The parallels are frightening.

Br will continue to grow slowly but long before it becomes a serious threat to SD DVD there will be other technologies. VOD, ss format etc.

Bandwidth for downloads will not be an issue. When analog is dropped from cable lot's and lot's of bandwidth becomes available for VOD.

So surely the same would have been true for HD-DVD had it come out on top?
post #29 of 514
Quote:
Originally Posted by BozsterHD View Post

Good question. And the answer IS, are you ready?

GREED!

Everybody is losing money. Consumer is getting great cheap stuff with DVD, but studios and CE companies are bleeding.

Now they have to do something to cut off DVD and replace it with something they can milk us for with higher prices and you can bet your ass they are trying to NOT make the same mistake again (in Blu-Ray case) as they did with DVD and allow Chinese influence unless it's HEAVILY controlled. They will try to keep Blu-Ray player/software prices as high as possible as they need money, but again they'll try to drop it to somewhat affordable cause they are now offering better quality of movies. The beauty for everyone involved here except the consumer is that they get a fresh start with pricing. Now they will never allow players to go below $100 for example. They know that's where they are now with DVD and it's not working for them. They want more. Studios are in heaven as they will get a chance to charge $35-$40 for movies now day/date and $20 for older releases. This was $15.99 and $9.99 for current DVD pricing for the most part. Overall, they all think, those who don't have money will buy DVDs.

It was a big no no what we got from Toshiba. Same thing, but fully featured, pacing the way for another wave of $60 HD players where we all get to watch hi-def movies (rich or poor) everywhere.

Sigh, unfortunately this is the world we live in. Obviously even after Warner, we have witnessed that we really never had a say in this. It was all backdoor deals anyways.

Didn't know I asked a question, but thanks for answering whatever I asked.

On a more serious note, no I don't believe the studios need to, as you put it, "cut off DVD and replace it..." I honestly don't think a single person here will agree with that, but perhaps someone can prove me wrong by agreeing. I mean why would you cut off your biggest source of revenue if you are a movie studio? I mean honestly if you were a studio which would you prefer:

Option A: No DVD sales & some hi-def sales
or
Option B: DVD sales that are very very slowly declining & some hi-def sales
post #30 of 514
Quote:
Originally Posted by lgans316 View Post

UMD sales in Japan may not be high but it is still being SOLD. Same applies to MiniDisc players / recorders. There is always a market for stuffs that appear obsolete or dead.

Well if you are talking about SOLD, then there's nothing interesting about this discussion because they are still being sold in the US and the rest of the world. The point was that UMDs don't sell WELL. And.... I no longer remember why we were pointing out that they don't sell well...
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AVS › AVS Forum › Blu-ray & HD DVD › HDTV Software Media Discussion › Strategies for HD DVD, serious brainstorming only