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What's with the Rush, Rush mentality?

post #1 of 182
2/10/08 at 10:20pm
Thread Starter 
I'm confused why some people are so concerned about HDM sales versus DVD sales. Concerned why so and so titles aren't available yet.

OMG, so and so movie that took 7 years to be released on DVD isn't out on HD-DVD or Blu-Ray yet! Or posts that point out that DVD sales crush those of HDM. Well, thanks for that Sherlock, I didn't know that an established format of 10+ years would have huge sales compared to a fledgling and at the moment, niche format. *smacks head*

Can't we take a look at the big picture and chill a little bit?

Of course sales aren't going to be close. Of course, not all our favorites are going to be out. There's plenty of fine titles available, so please try to just enjoy them.
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post #2 of 182
2/10/08 at 10:52pm
+1.

I'm not at all concerned with how HDM does against DVD. Downloads and the format war are the issues at the moment.
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post #3 of 182
2/10/08 at 11:08pm
Well, I like older films and there's just not that much out on HDM. I haven't bought anything in hi-def for a while just because there is nothing of interest to me. I have purchased quite few titles recently on SD DVD that may not be on HDM for years. I do look forward to The Longest Day, Patton, Bonnie & Clyde and a few others, but there are just way too many CGI, horror, sci-fi films, and undesirable titles for my taste in HDM right now.
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post #4 of 182
2/11/08 at 12:29am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lonely Surfer View Post

Well, I like older films and there's just not that much out on HDM. I haven't bought anything in hi-def for a while just because there is nothing of interest to me. I have purchased quite few titles recently on SD DVD that may not be on HDM for years. I do look forward to The Longest Day, Patton, Bonnie & Clyde and a few others, but there are just way too many CGI, horror, sci-fi films, and undesirable titles for my taste in HDM right now.

Ah! one of the few remaining WWII war film fans around. Patton, but in the 2:20 or 2:35 release?

A bridge too far, Memphis belle, Midway, Tora etc.

We might just see them, keep the faith.

Semper Fi
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post #5 of 182
2/11/08 at 1:36am
I don't understand this obsession either apparently the belief is that we'll start to see more catalog titles if HDM takes off. However, you can't expect only two yrs in that HDM can make a serious dent into DVD sales. Not when it requires a compatible display and hardware prices are in the 3-4 hundred range at least for blu-ray.

Personally, I could care less because I believe it will never match the success DVD had during its height. Sales will grow but keep in mind that there was no in demand movies or online content such as youtube when DVD came to market. Not to mention the fact that VHS or the tape format had been around for like 20yrs. The market conditions are different right now.

Just a couple of weeks ago my brother was talking about scenes from a movie we both like. He doesn't own it on DVD and all he had to do was go to youtube and we both watched those scenes. Knowing him if he couldn't access his favorite parts of the movie online he would have bought the dvd.
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post #6 of 182
2/11/08 at 2:26am
It seems that, for some people, since the Warner annoucement, HDM is doomed.

So we read a lot of post putting a negative spin on HDM:

HDM stand no chance versus downloads, HDM will always stay niche etc .. ad nauseam ...
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post #7 of 182
2/11/08 at 4:57am
In my case, its not a question of being concerned, its just a question of wanting more titles. The truth is, that for me, the title selection is pretty poor. I love HD, but I'm not going to buy movies I won't like, so I'm buying less now than I was 6 months ago. I've bought/preordered 5 titles for all of Q1 '08-that used to be 1-2 weeks worth for me. Its rather frustrating, and I'm starting to get the same feeling I got after I bought into SACD.
J
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post #8 of 182
2/11/08 at 5:19am
I watched a couple of dozen blu-rays from Netflix after I got my PS3. But I haven't watched one for months. I haven't even watched my free titles.

I'd rather watch content on DVD that I WANT TO SEE than blu-ray content that I don't. I hope it gets better in 2008 but the release schedules look pitiful so far.
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post #9 of 182
2/11/08 at 5:54am
I wish I could argue with the poor selection theory. Stuff I like, Alien, Jurassic etc etc. I don't got enough years left.
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post #10 of 182
2/11/08 at 7:05am
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheCrackedJack View Post

I'm confused why some people are so concerned about HDM sales versus DVD sales. Concerned why so and so titles aren't available yet.

OMG, so and so movie that took 7 years to be released on DVD isn't out on HD-DVD or Blu-Ray yet! Or posts that point out that DVD sales crush those of HDM. Well, thanks for that Sherlock, I didn't know that an established format of 10+ years would have huge sales compared to a fledgling and at the moment, niche format. *smacks head*

Can't we take a look at the big picture and chill a little bit?

Of course sales aren't going to be close. Of course, not all our favorites are going to be out. There's plenty of fine titles available, so please try to just enjoy them.

Looks like you knew all of this ahead of time by the tone of your post and of course you didn't.

We are just short of two years into HDM it should be picking up by now for those of us with limited lifespans.

Art
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post #11 of 182
2/11/08 at 7:10am
Quote:
Originally Posted by olivaw View Post

It seems that, for some people, since the Warner annoucement, HDM is doomed.

So we read a lot of post putting a negative spin on HDM:

HDM stand no chance versus downloads, HDM will always stay niche etc .. ad nauseam ...

Its not negative spin. Both HDM and downloads are in the early adopter stage. They are trying to reach the niche status that DVD-A and SACD could not. If they can do that, then they can worry about SD DVD.
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post #12 of 182
2/11/08 at 7:14am
Quote:
Originally Posted by olivaw View Post

It seems that, for some people, since the Warner annoucement, HDM is doomed.

So we read a lot of post putting a negative spin on HDM:

HDM stand no chance versus downloads, HDM will always stay niche etc .. ad nauseam ...

I have felt that HDM would be LD since the beginning. I don't see it as doomed, but instead I see it as a very good thing for enthusiasts. You'd think that wold be a good thing on an enthusiast forum. I guess everyone is so worried about the container that they have stopped worrying about the movie on the container.
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post #13 of 182
2/11/08 at 7:44am
Quote:
Originally Posted by GodsLabRat View Post

I'm not at all concerned with how HDM does against DVD. Downloads and the format war are the issues at the moment.

I can't say I agree with this. There is no format war, just a couple studios that have yet to adopt blu-ray. And HD downloads will not be a significant threat to physical media for a number of years still in the US. Our infrastructure is just too far behind; no wonder given the size of our country but still shame on telcos for missing the boat.

HDM will do just fine in the window it has.
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post #14 of 182
2/11/08 at 8:15am
I do not understand why HD downloads are always included in the argument about media. I think that sales of discs will always be preferred. HD downloads will eventually overtake media rentals. When I want to watch a movie I haven't seen in a while I feel more comfortable grabbing a disc that I know will play. I don't have to deal with expired licenses and DRM. Also, a friend can borrow it if I choose to.
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post #15 of 182
2/11/08 at 8:31am
For us, it's the hope of cutting the waittime for StarWars and LotR (and others) to show up earlier, by a few months.

For the studios, the reason is in page 8 of HMM
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ques...hp?startpage=8

Time Warner saw a Q4 drop in revenue of 42%, (imo of which New Line's Golden Compass BoxOffice performance has a part in), along with declining DVD sales in 07. In this case, Time Warner is laying off about 100 people as part of a goal to reduce costs by 15%.

In the past, the studios always counted on DVD revenue to grow, when it plateaus, they get nervous and looked for other revenue sources. When revenue goes down, it translates to layoffs.

For years, DVD revenue was this magic balm that allowed them to weather the years when their boxoffice revenue goes down, but now that they are seeing that it is declining, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that this first layoff is just the first round of what could be continuous austerity measures at the studios if DVD revenue keeps declining every year.

Now why does it decline? I have a theory, part of it is saturation in the home, but it also has to do with torrents, eyepatches and buckaneers.

When companies see their profits decline, they have to do something to adjust. Profitability in each company is measured by ROI, if a company's profit margin get too close to interest rates in a bank, then the whole business is of no value to shareholders. If a division/company is not profitable, then if they don't find a way to return to profitability, deep cost cutting always happens.
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post #16 of 182
2/11/08 at 8:34am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Neo1965 View Post


Now why does it decline? I have a theory, part of it is saturation in the home, but it also has to do with torrents, eyepatches and buckaneers.

New DVDs sell great. Catalog, not so great. Also, don't believe everything you hear or read. The music industry continues with it's "CD sales are down" mantra, while actual revenue has gone up for them with less overhead.
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post #17 of 182
2/11/08 at 8:45am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Neo1965 View Post

For us, it's the hope of cutting the waittime for StarWars and LotR (and others) to show up earlier, by a few months.

For the studios, the reason is in page 8 of HMM
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ques...hp?startpage=8

Time Warner saw a Q4 drop in revenue of 42%, (imo of which New Line's Golden Compass BoxOffice performance has a part in), along with declining DVD sales in 07. In this case, Time Warner is laying off about 100 people as part of a goal to reduce costs by 15%.

In the past, the studios always counted on DVD revenue to grow, when it plateaus, they get nervous and looked for other revenue sources. When revenue goes down, it translates to layoffs.

For years, DVD revenue was this magic balm that allowed them to weather the years when their boxoffice revenue goes down, but now that they are seeing that it is declining, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that this first layoff is just the first round of what could be continuous austerity measures at the studios if DVD revenue keeps declining every year.

Now why does it decline? I have a theory, part of it is saturation in the home, but it also has to do with torrents, eyepatches and buckaneers.

When companies see their profits decline, they have to do something to adjust. Profitability in each company is measured by ROI, if a company's profit margin get too close to interest rates in a bank, then the whole business is of no value to shareholders. If a division/company is not profitable, then if they don't find a way to return to profitability, deep cost cutting always happens.

Looks like Warner jumped ship too soon. They could have used the HD DVD revenues.
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post #18 of 182
2/11/08 at 9:07am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Slim GoodBooty View Post

New DVDs sell great. Catalog, not so great. Also, don't believe everything you hear or read. The music industry continues with it's "CD sales are down" mantra, while actual revenue has gone up for them with less overhead.

The whole point of HDM, is to get us to (re)buy catalog titles. They don't need HDM for new titles.
J
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post #19 of 182
2/11/08 at 9:08am
The reason Q4 earnings were so much lower was do to last years sale of AOL's European online access business. Without the year-ago gains and other one-time effects, adjusted profits rose 17 percent on stronger results for cable TV and movies.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Neo1965 View Post

For us, it's the hope of cutting the waittime for StarWars and LotR (and others) to show up earlier, by a few months.

For the studios, the reason is in page 8 of HMM
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ques...hp?startpage=8

Time Warner saw a Q4 drop in revenue of 42%, (imo of which New Line's Golden Compass BoxOffice performance has a part in), along with declining DVD sales in 07. In this case, Time Warner is laying off about 100 people as part of a goal to reduce costs by 15%.

In the past, the studios always counted on DVD revenue to grow, when it plateaus, they get nervous and looked for other revenue sources. When revenue goes down, it translates to layoffs.

For years, DVD revenue was this magic balm that allowed them to weather the years when their boxoffice revenue goes down, but now that they are seeing that it is declining, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to realize that this first layoff is just the first round of what could be continuous austerity measures at the studios if DVD revenue keeps declining every year.

Now why does it decline? I have a theory, part of it is saturation in the home, but it also has to do with torrents, eyepatches and buckaneers.

When companies see their profits decline, they have to do something to adjust. Profitability in each company is measured by ROI, if a company's profit margin get too close to interest rates in a bank, then the whole business is of no value to shareholders. If a division/company is not profitable, then if they don't find a way to return to profitability, deep cost cutting always happens.
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post #20 of 182
2/11/08 at 9:10am
Quote:
Originally Posted by HT Nut View Post

Looks like Warner jumped ship too soon. They could have used the HD DVD revenues.

Or perhaps it's just strategic planning when you have two plants jostling for the same real estate and the farmer decided to prune one so the other can flourish. That way, instead of having weak yields from both plants, he might have a chance at a bumper crop when the remaining plant finally bears fruit, come harvest time.

Companies don't just plan 3 weeks ahead to meet payroll, they have to have a clear idea of where they want to be next year, and even 5 years from now.
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post #21 of 182
2/11/08 at 9:27am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Art Sonneborn View Post

Looks like you knew all of this ahead of time by the tone of your post and of course you didn't.

We are just short of two years into HDM it should be picking up by now for those of us with limited lifespans.

Art

To be honest I'm pretty happy with the Selection, Nearly all of my favorite top 10 movies of all time have already come out in HD. There are currently very few all time favorite movies of mine left that need to come out in HD. I had a much longer wait for these titles when DVD was released.

Call it luck or call it whatever you want but nearly all of my favorite movies are out in HD.
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post #22 of 182
2/11/08 at 9:45am
Quote:
Originally Posted by swanlee View Post

To be honest I'm pretty happy with the Selection, Nearly all of my favorite top 10 movies of all time have already come out in HD. There are currently very few all time favorite movies of mine left that need to come out in HD. I had a much longer wait for these titles when DVD was released.

Call it luck or call it whatever you want but nearly all of my favorite movies are out in HD.

I'd have to call it that.

Art
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post #23 of 182
2/11/08 at 10:15am
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheCrackedJack View Post

I'm confused why some people are so concerned about HDM sales versus DVD sales. Concerned why so and so titles aren't available yet.

OMG, so and so movie that took 7 years to be released on DVD isn't out on HD-DVD or Blu-Ray yet! Or posts that point out that DVD sales crush those of HDM. Well, thanks for that Sherlock, I didn't know that an established format of 10+ years would have huge sales compared to a fledgling and at the moment, niche format. *smacks head*

Can't we take a look at the big picture and chill a little bit?

Of course sales aren't going to be close. Of course, not all our favorites are going to be out. There's plenty of fine titles available, so please try to just enjoy them.

+1. Thank you. Good post.
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post #24 of 182
2/11/08 at 10:18am
So you guys are happy with the release rate of HDM after two years or all of your favorites are already out ?

I think reality is between impatients and and the rate is peachy keen IMO.
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post #25 of 182
2/11/08 at 10:28am
I think there's an understanding that titles will be released. New movies almost invariably get a Blu-Ray day and date release and we'll be seeing strong catalog titles as we move forward. We have a nice list from Warner for 2008 and Disney will start releasing its classics. You can already pick up on Blu-Ray, to name a few: Unforgiven, Rio Bravo, Wall Street, 2001, The Shining, Halloween, Blade Runner, The Wild Bunch, Rocky, Close Encounters of the Third Kind, Die Hard, GoodFellas, Untouchables, The Searchers, etc. I think we're way ahead of where DVD was at this point and I think there will be many more titles by Christmas, which is when the format will really have an opportunity to reach a mass audience.
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post #26 of 182
2/11/08 at 10:32am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Art Sonneborn View Post

So you guys are happy with the release rate of HDM after two years or all of your favorites are already out ?

I think reality is between impatients and and the rate is peachy keen IMO.

I think we have to draw a line in the sand between what we'd like versus what will realistically sell.

If it were just "what we want", I think we can all agree that having every single movie ever made available on HDM would be the option we'd all want. Given the limited resources that studios have to work within, though, I'm personally surprised that we're even getting as much decent catalog as we've been seeing (with more coming down the pipeline).

I agree that having more releases would be a good thing, but the studios can only remaster a limited number of titles at a time with the existing facilities without quality suffering (look at what happened last year when Universal tried to push the envelope and accelerate their release rate), and I'm personally happy enough to let them go about the business as best they know how.

More releases is good, but if doing so cuts into the quality of the final product, I'm happier to wait just a bit longer to make sure that what ends up on the disc is worth the price premium.
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post #27 of 182
2/11/08 at 10:34am
I haven't been chiming in to often lately, but think HDM is starting to look like a joke, every day HD DVD gets more bad news in terms of support even though it's players are highly affordable and finished, on the other hand Blu-ray enjoys increasing content/CEM support, but their hardware situation is an incredible mess of the over-priced and the unfinished (I support both formats by the way)

Just this week HD DVD loses Netflix and BD picks up a couple class-action lawsuits. HDM news has been so negative for so long, I fear a general no-show, and with good reason.

Add to this the cost of disks, and the narrow focus of content, I'd say I couldn't write a better scenario on how to make a new technology with limited appeal fall on it's face. It's not even that new anymore either.
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post #28 of 182
2/11/08 at 10:51am
One might say that this is the sort of short-term thinking and focus on what will ultimately be meaningless facts that the OP was referring to. Of course, it might be that the OP is wrong and this sort of thinking is accurate. But I side with the OP on that debate.
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post #29 of 182
2/11/08 at 10:51am
I think all has progressed satisfactorily.. No complaints.

When the average ******* is ready to buy into HD, there will be so much more to choose from.
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post #30 of 182
2/11/08 at 11:00am
Quote:
Originally Posted by Timothy Ramzyk View Post

Just this week HD DVD loses Netflix and BD picks up a couple class-action lawsuits. HDM news has been so negative for so long, I fear a general no-show, and with good reason.

This seems needlessly negative, and like most of the anti-HDM comments it comes mainly after 1/4/08 and mainly from one side. First of all, there's only one lawsuit, which seems almost entirely baseless. Second, the "mess" that you speak of doesn't seem to turn off consumers, who are not only buying more BD players than HD DVD, but also doing quite well (as in, nearly on par with DVD at the same point in it's lifecycle) during a very slow shopping period. If anything, the momentum of distributors, retailers, and now rental agencies towards one format is more promising for adoption. It's 100% confirmed now that the price issue is meaningless when confronted with software selection. With Blu-ray player prices dropping continuously throughout 2008 and beyond, plus increased exclusive support from all sectors of the home media industry, and an increasingly murkier future for HD via the Internet, HDM feels like it has a fighting chance again. Do I think it will be the next DVD? No, but DVD was so wildly successful that we probably won't see anything grow like it did for a decade or more.
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