Maybe a better question is: do you think that Sony, Panasonic, et al in the BDA want BD to be a niche product? Hell no. They've spent far too much money to allow it to remain niche. Based on guesstimates of how much they've spent for R&D, studio support, etc., they won't get "payback" if BD remains niche. So, what I think we'll see is that the members of BDA (Sony in particular, as they appear to have invested the most) will do whatever it takes (eventually) to ensure that BD becomes the adopted standard for video (whatever it takes in the context of: while still remaining at least as profitable as DVD). Some ideas of what that might mean: "de-contented" players that sell at under $100 (at some point, not claiming this will happen tomorrow), de-contented movies (in terms of extras or anything that is particularly expensive to produce), de-res'd movies (again, only if the general buying public doesn't notice, which, based on my rather dim opinion, is likely, and only if creating a really good transfer and encode is particular expensive). Any of these are possible. A lot will depend on how expensive a proposition the items in question are and how big of an impact they have in terms of "sell through" to consumers.