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Seriously, what happens if Blu-Ray sputters in the market? - Page 4  

post #91 of 1234
2/21/08 at 7:39am
Quote:
Originally Posted by kevivoe View Post

Ha ha. My theater room is 34 feet deep so I have the room. No need to move, Comcast is in my area. I have a 119" diagonal now, smaller is not an option, bigger is on the table however ....

but if one does live in a shoe box there could be problems. In that case I recommend you spend money on blu-ray discs because they are cheaper than buying a new house.

Wow. never thought my 2,000+ sq ft house would be called a "shoe box". I wonder what my cousin's $2 million 1,600 sq ft house in LA would be then...

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post #92 of 1234
2/21/08 at 7:40am
Quote:
Originally Posted by husker1974 View Post

If I want portable video, then I'll watch it on my iPod Touch, where DVD rips are fine.

How are you going to get a DVD rip off a Blu-ray disc?
post #93 of 1234
2/21/08 at 7:44am
Quote:
Originally Posted by DarkAdept View Post

We've seen a large number of people that are simply planning to wait for player prices to hit $200 or $150 or even $100 before getting back into the market. Am I shocked? Is the sky falling? No, and no. There were also a lot of people who waited for DVD players to hit $200, $150, $100, and even $50 before jumping in. it's a normal market distribution of price sensitivity and it's not news to the BDA or anyone else. The low prices on Toshiba players brought people into the game who wouldn't normally be considered early adopters and I expect many of them will sit on the sidelines for a while.

It doesn't mean that there aren't plenty of people willing to pay $400 now that the question of which format will survive has been resolved. Thank goodness we don't all think or act the same. We'll see player prices slowly coming down, adoption continuing, retailers dedicating more and more space to media, and replication ramping up to meet demand. Sudden overnight changes historically haven't happened in a market this size and things are more or less back to normal.

If holiday 2008 sales aren't up over the prior year by a factor of 3-5 then there's a very real problem. Between now and then I wouldn't try to read too much into anecdotal evidence about who is and who isn't buying in.

True, plus, those of us who did buy in late in the game at low prices didn't really lose out on anything, as we got great players that both play wonderful HD-dvd movies and are very good at upscaling regular dvd's too, and actually are better at upscaling than a lot of Blu players. And considering the 5 free movies deal we are are supposed to have gotten, if that is still honored, then we basically bought the movies and got the player free.

All that said, after having seen the stunning difference in picture between hi-def disc formats and standard, I do hope that Blu, even though it wasn't my format of choice initially, makes a good inroad into the market so that HDM in some form on a disc continues to be available. I'm not a fan of downloaded media, and there are many of us who aren't.
post #94 of 1234
2/21/08 at 7:50am
Quote:
Originally Posted by iceperson View Post

Wow. never thought my 2,000+ sq ft house would be called a "shoe box". I wonder what my cousin's $2 million 1,600 sq ft house in LA would be then...

A shoe box. In the middle of the USA 3500-4500 sq. ft is common. And for $2M you could probably do 5500 sq. feet with some nice cabinetry and marble. I travel to the valley (silicon valley) and my co-workers there claim my home would be $2M plus in their neighborhood by here in MN it is 1/3 of that.

Of course the weather is another thing ..... that might be worth sacrificing a few thousand sq. feet since outdoors is more of an option in LA.
post #95 of 1234
2/21/08 at 7:54am
Quote:
Originally Posted by JBlacklow View Post

We've seen several sales since 1/5, including a BOGO.

Can you link me since I need to get some more blu-ray discs now anyway.
post #96 of 1234
2/21/08 at 7:59am
there were some numbers around, I will dig them up,...

they were showing upt to 5 TMES bigger numbers comparing feburary 2008 with february 2007 on Blu-ray units (movies) sale...

Marek
post #97 of 1234
2/21/08 at 8:01am
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarekM View Post

there were some numbers around, I will dig them up,...

they were showing upt to 5 TMES bigger numbers comparing feburary 2008 with february 2007 on Blu-ray units (movies) sale...

Marek

Unfortunately 5 times a very small number (compared to SD DVD sales) is still a small number. I'm not saying Blu-Ray won't catch on but it's got a ways to go since it's hovering at around 2-5% of DVD sales which qualifies it as a niche product...for now.
post #98 of 1234
2/21/08 at 8:04am
Quote:
Originally Posted by MichaelZ View Post

I think most of the HD-DVD early buyers feel burned and therefor want to minimize their exposure, i.e., cheap player and discs. Who wants to get nailed twice? My thoughts away.

Not at all. I just don't pay for an unfinished standard offering less features but more DRM and region-coding in first place, let alone for twice more.
HD DVD showed it can be done right, for the right price - it's only the question of corporate greed and control, that's all. If Blu-Ray will offer the same features my A35 has - that is Profile 2.0+ - for $200-$250 and movies won't have any Fair Use Rights/customer rights-trumping restrictions - e.g. region coding and other DMCA-based trick, it is illegal anyway - and they won't cost more than twice the price of a regular DVD then I will buy one.

Until then studios can do me a favor - I'm fine with my carefully selected - sans some I bought for my wife - ~50 HD DVD movies and 100+ regular DVDs, my 1.5TB NAS, 10+ Mbit internet connection, Netflix/BB, HBO etc.
post #99 of 1234
2/21/08 at 8:07am
Quote:
Originally Posted by ikaden View Post

Unfortunately 5 times a very small number (compared to SD DVD sales) is still a small number. I'm not saying Blu-Ray won't catch on but it's got a ways to go since it's hovering at around 2-5% of DVD sales which qualifies it as a niche product...for now.

you are right, but if something can grow from year to year 5 times, it showing very nice progress.....

I am still loking for those numbers

Marek
post #100 of 1234
2/21/08 at 8:07am
The price of the players is only part of the problem. The more significant problems are the prices of the discs as well as the fact that they don't play on DVD players. The discs can't be played in the car or laptops or portable players. Most consumers are not going to want to buy the BD and DVD version of the same disc. They will by the one that will play on all of their machines, which is the DVD. Those factors will retard the growth of BD even more than the price of the players.
post #101 of 1234
2/21/08 at 8:08am
Quote:


Seriously, what happens if Blu-Ray sputters in the market?

Nothing, nada, zip, zero, zilch.

I'll wager the Earth will keep spinning.
post #102 of 1234
2/21/08 at 8:14am
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWhip View Post

The price of the players is only part of the problem. The more significant problems are the prices of the discs as well as the fact that they don't play on DVD players. The discs can't be played in the car or laptops or portable players. Most consumers are not going to want to buy the BD and DVD version of the same disc. They will by the one that will play on all of their machines, which is the DVD. Those factors will retard the growth of BD even more than the price of the players.

laptops have already started coming with BD drives, and with the recent improvements from Sharp to BD burners reducing their size, increasing their speed, and reducing their power consumption you'll start to see even more laptops including them and by Q4 you should see some portable BD devices coming to market. DVD didn't overtake VHS overnight either.
post #103 of 1234
2/21/08 at 8:16am
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWhip View Post

The price of the players is only part of the problem. The more significant problems are the prices of the discs as well as the fact that they don't play on DVD players. The discs can't be played in the car or laptops or portable players. Most consumers are not going to want to buy the BD and DVD version of the same disc. They will by the one that will play on all of their machines, which is the DVD. Those factors will retard the growth of BD even more than the price of the players.

But if those consumers had taken the money they spent on all those other
players they could have easily afforded a new blu-ray player,honestly do
we need a video player in every room,auto and garage.I would think a nice
setup in a theater or family room where the movie could be enjoyed by
the whole family as good as it can be shown would be better.
post #104 of 1234
2/21/08 at 8:29am
Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Madness View Post

The real question is, how many of those hdtv's sold are paired with hd content? I mean how many get hd cable or satellite along with their tv or blu-ray players? Im pretty sure that at least 85% of consumers who buy a new hdtv, just go home and hook up the old coaxial from basic cable or hook up their dvd player.

Absolutely right! The whole content issue is, to a large extent, separate from the demand for flat panel TVs. Market research show that there are two main factors driving mass adoption of flat panel technology--the sense of "cool" and a kind of embarrassment in many demographics that comes with owning an ancient CRT TV. Content is different. The good thing is that it's easy to get HD content; the problem is that many people don't feel the need to have it right now. My local BB pushes HD VOD because it's easy to install and most content providers prefer an annuity to the sale of physical media; it also has the potential to offer instant gratification. Is is as good as BD? No way! But for many, it's "good enough." Not many people have multichannel audio systems with those FPs--the idea of uncompressed audio and all the other goodies is meaningless to them. As for DVDs--they are happy with their upconverting players, some of which are misleadingly labeled "HD." When the studios start releasing some movies _only_ on BD, we'll really see acceptance take off.

Brian
post #105 of 1234
2/21/08 at 8:31am
Interesting perspective on Blu-ray/ HD-DVD from John C. Dvorak - R.I.P. HD DVD

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2265030,00.asp
post #106 of 1234
2/21/08 at 8:36am
I wonder how many shops tell their customers a simple ota will give them hd free therefore
getting them addicted to hd and wanting more with the easy solution a blu-ray player.
post #107 of 1234
2/21/08 at 8:36am
Quote:
Originally Posted by PaulGo View Post

Interesting perspective on Blu-ray/ HD-DVD from John C. Dvorak - R.I.P. HD DVD

http://www.pcmag.com/article2/0,2817,2265030,00.asp

Mehh, he's clueless as usual. Thanks for the link anyway.
post #108 of 1234
2/21/08 at 8:37am
Quote:
Originally Posted by oztech View Post

But if those consumers had taken the money they spent on all those other
players they could have easily afforded a new blu-ray player,honestly do
we need a video player in every room,auto and garage.I would think a nice
setup in a theater or family room where the movie could be enjoyed by
the whole family as good as it can be shown would be better.

That is exactly what I have. But guess what? Many want to take their movies with them and they simply can't with BD. These people are the mass of the market, not us. As for BD portables, they better be priced at $100 for the masses to buy them. BD has a long way to go to become mainstream.
post #109 of 1234
2/21/08 at 8:44am
Quote:
Originally Posted by ikaden View Post

Unfortunately 5 times a very small number (compared to SD DVD sales) is still a small number. I'm not saying Blu-Ray won't catch on but it's got a ways to go since it's hovering at around 2-5% of DVD sales which qualifies it as a niche product...for now.

so finaly I found those numbers :

credit to Gruber

YEAR 2007

Code:
Week        BD     
1/7/07    44,779  
1/14/07   45,754  
1/21/07   53,050  
1/28/07   47,803  
2/4/07    45,723

YTD 2007 = 237,109

Code:
YEAR 2008

Week     BD    
01/06   301,000     
01/13   322,000     
01/20   200,000      
01/27   177,000      
02/03   147,000

YTD 2008 1,147,000
one more info
http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6532685.html

Quote:


BD software sales alone have exceeded 1.5 million units so far in 2008, a mark that hadn’t been hit until July last year, according to studio sources. Also, BD sales through mid-February are five times greater than at the same time last year.
post #110 of 1234
2/21/08 at 8:59am
Quote:
Originally Posted by T2k View Post

Mehh, he's clueless as usual. Thanks for the link anyway.

No kidding..... so Dvorak "...sensed the invisible hand of Microsoft making sure that Linux was associated with the thing (I guess he means the Toshiba HD-XA1)....."

WTF...?? He's got extrasensory powers....?!!

Oh yeah, Toshiba's taking a write-off of several hundred million dollars and risking the animus of a million hardware end-users just to do the evil bidding of Ballmer/Gates.

What a maroon.....
post #111 of 1234
2/21/08 at 9:03am
Quote:
Originally Posted by iceperson View Post

Wow. never thought my 2,000+ sq ft house would be called a "shoe box". I wonder what my cousin's $2 million 1,600 sq ft house in LA would be then...

1,600 sq. ft. often the size of a kitchen, master bedroom or master bathroom in a $2 million house here in TX.

Aren't HDM disc sales together are less than what DVD was at this time in development?

Dvorak has strange sense of revisionist history.
post #112 of 1234
2/21/08 at 9:08am
Quote:
Originally Posted by allargon View Post

Aren't HDM disc sales together are less than what DVD was at this time in development?

According to an article referenced MarekM:

"High-def discs, introduced in 2006, sold 8.3 million units by the end of 2007. That compares to 16.3 million units for standard-definition in their first two years at retail, according to Adams. No such gap exists in hardware, where high-def DVD players are on about the same sales pace as were standard DVD set-tops."

Of course, the market is much bigger now, so the raw numbers may point to an even slower adoption rate than at first seems to be indicated. OTOH, now the "war" is over, we might see adoption rates increase more rapidly.

Brian
post #113 of 1234
2/21/08 at 9:15am
Quote:
Originally Posted by briansxx View Post

Of course, the market is much bigger now ...

How do you come to that conclusion? I'd be willing to wager that the number of households that have HDTVs today is much smaller than the number with SDTVs in 1999. Sure, there are other ways you could define the potential market but I think they'd be less realistic.
post #114 of 1234
2/21/08 at 9:19am
Quote:
Originally Posted by DarkAdept View Post

How do you come to that conclusion? I'd be willing to wager that the number of households that have HDTVs today is much smaller than the number with SDTVs in 1999. Sure, there are other ways you could define the potential market but I think they'd be less realistic.

Good point--you're right. The HD-ready marketplace is about 25% of the initial SD DVD-ready marketplace. With that in mind, adoption could actually be higher.
post #115 of 1234
2/21/08 at 10:32am
If these people are only willing to spend $200 on a new format then they are not true early adopters. Early adopters are people that will pay any price to be the first to get into any new product. Will they still be willing to sit it out when movies like Jurassic Park, Star Wars and The Godfather start appearing on Blu Ray?
post #116 of 1234
2/21/08 at 10:35am
"Seriously, what happens if Blu-Ray sputters in the market?"

Nothing of note will happen, just like nothing of note happens when any other product sputters.
post #117 of 1234
2/21/08 at 10:37am
Quote:
Originally Posted by JWhip View Post

That is exactly what I have. But guess what? Many want to take their movies with them and they simply can't with BD. These people are the mass of the market, not us. As for BD portables, they better be priced at $100 for the masses to buy them. BD has a long way to go to become mainstream.

and I'll bet the same people who want to take their movie with them and watch on a 7" in car DVD player are the same one's that claim you can't see a difference between upconverted DVD and HD unless it's on a screen bigger than a football field.
post #118 of 1234
2/21/08 at 10:48am
Quote:
Originally Posted by fa8362 View Post

"Seriously, what happens if Blu-Ray sputters in the market?"

Nothing of note will happen, just like nothing of note happens when any other product sputters.

Sometimes a new product comes along and takes its place i just don't see it
this time.
post #119 of 1234
2/21/08 at 10:53am
Quote:
Originally Posted by AV Doogie View Post

One thing you can count on is change. Once people are hip to the knowledge that only one format is now viable, and it too can play all of their DVD's and CD's....there will be more buyers. Rumors indicate that BD player prices may be closer to 200$ by Christmas 2008.

we should hope they're hip to knowing they need an hdtv be4 they can use their hd players. most dont have hdtv yet.
post #120 of 1234
2/21/08 at 10:54am
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarekM View Post

so finaly I found those numbers :

credit to Gruber

YEAR 2007

Code:
Week        BD     
1/7/07    44,779  
1/14/07   45,754  
1/21/07   53,050  
1/28/07   47,803  
2/4/07    45,723

YTD 2007 = 237,109

Code:
YEAR 2008

Week     BD    
01/06   301,000     
01/13   322,000     
01/20   200,000      
01/27   177,000      
02/03   147,000

YTD 2008 1,147,000
one more info
http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6532685.html

Nice find. I just wish they had the SD software sales for comparison. In the end I find myself getting HD content where ever I can find it whether it's cable, Xbox Live, HD-DVD, and Blu-Ray.
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