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post #61 of 268 Old 12-09-2006, 10:18 PM
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Originally Posted by WickyWoo
...but the economies of scale are far better on the format with 10 people making decks rather than 1, and with the massive exclusivity it's merely a matter of time until Toshiba runs out of cash they can devote to this project.
There would be economies of scale only if the 10 companies making the deck are making identical or very similar players using common components, and if the market for the 10 companies dwarfs the market for the single company.

Excluding the rather unique PS3 which doesn't have much in common with the other players except maybe the drive itself, the BD market has a lot of growing to do before any economies of scale could be realized.

As for Toshiba running out of cash, that assumes they are going to be losing money on their future models which has no basis in fact.
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post #62 of 268 Old 12-09-2006, 10:56 PM
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I worked hard as well and now I'm enjoying the fruit of my labor. I didn't just graduate from collage. It's been more than a few years ago.
I still think it's crazy though. If I were Bill Gates I'd still only have one deck, hooked up to my main HT

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And neither does the Weinstein brothers
Weinsteins have gone neutral, Clerks 2 BR is on the way

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EDIT: I should note that WickyWoo was much worse in his innacuracies and with the implications that ruadmaa was lying. I am not sure why you jumped on that bandwagon, but you really should just apologize and move on instead of trying to push the blame on ruadmaa.
So there were a couple of crippled decks with zero features, so sue me. The ones that today would be considered a basic feature set were still $1000 though.

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There would be economies of scale only if the 10 companies making the deck are making identical or very similar players using common components, and if the market for the 10 companies dwarfs the market for the single company.
Yes, they're all using, and will be using a lot of common components. The Cell chip, the drives, etc. All going to be sourced from at least the same designs for the forseeable future. And all they have to do is survive long enough for Toshiba to surrender, which with 10 bankrolls they will.

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Excluding the rather unique PS3 which doesn't have much in common with the other players except maybe the drive itself,
There's a lot of identical parts in there.

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As for Toshiba running out of cash, that assumes they are going to be losing money on their future models which has no basis in fact.
It is if they keep dropping that kind of cash on promoting it. If they took in $400 per deck for the A1, and all of that was profit, they still would have less than 1/5th of the 150 million they're spending on advertising. Considering that they were actually LOSING over $100 per player, that puts them 7 million in the hole before you even touch the $150mil.
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post #63 of 268 Old 12-09-2006, 11:08 PM
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That could be a new advertising campaign for HD DVD: "You can buy 2 for the price of 1 BD player" or "you can buy 1 HD DVD player and 20 movies for the price of 1 BD player (sanz discs)"

Think of the possibilities...you can enjoy that shiny high def disk in more than one room? Oh my <insert higher being of choice here>!

So in "some peoples minds" it is probably ridiculous to own more than one tv too. Or maybe to own more than one DVD player. I'm single, 30, a pharmacist, and happen to own 3 tvs and a projector. I guess I'm "crazy!"

Or maybe I just know what I enjoy and don't spend money in other areas that don't interest me at all.

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post #64 of 268 Old 12-09-2006, 11:15 PM
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WickyWoo, I hate to say this to anyone. But you have brought ignorance to a new level for the BR camp.
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post #65 of 268 Old 12-09-2006, 11:23 PM
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Originally Posted by trgraphics
WickyWoo, I hate to say this to anyone. But you have brought ignorance to a new level for the BR camp.
Well at least he excels at something. :rolleyes:
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post #66 of 268 Old 12-10-2006, 12:07 AM
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The general public will decide who will win the format war....this won't be untill you find players for under $200 and new movies priced at $14.99-$19.99. The general public has no idea what VC-1 is or what the differance is between DTS and DTS-HD is,the early adopters know and alot of them think everyone else does too.
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post #67 of 268 Old 12-10-2006, 04:10 AM
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I don't hate to say it...most of his posts seem to exude ignorance.

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post #68 of 268 Old 12-10-2006, 04:32 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WickyWoo
So there were a couple of crippled decks with zero features, so sue me. The ones that today would be considered a basic feature set were still $1000 though.
Wrong again. The average selling price for a DVD player in 97 was $489 less than half of what you claim would be required for basic features. Other than Sony and Pioneer who had $1000 decks EVERY SINGLE DVD player was in the $500 - $700 range MSRP. To motivate sales actual selling prices were about $100 lower. Within 6 months Sony & Pioeer had cut their prices by about $200 - $300 to bring them inline w/ rest of the industry.

In 98 DVD became even more affordable. Most ranged from $400 - $600 MSRP. Once again with slow sales actual prices were more like $300 - $500. This is further reinforced by the fact that CEA shows average selling price was $390. By 99 the average price was down to $270 which helped to quadruple the # of systems sold. Even Sony's high end player was <$600.

The pivotal year for DVD was 2000 when due to dropping prices (avg $200) the number of systems sold tripled to more than 13 million. DVD was in 13% of households and well on it's way to becoming mainstream.

The BD camp clings to the idea that $1000+ systems were common in DVD era because it help convince themselves that people will buy these overpriced systems. Truth is the $1000 DVD player was a minority even during the launch and was gone within 6 months.

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It is if they keep dropping that kind of cash on promoting it. If they took in $400 per deck for the A1, and all of that was profit, they still would have less than 1/5th of the 150 million they're spending on advertising. Considering that they were actually LOSING over $100 per player, that puts them 7 million in the hole before you even touch the $150mil.
The truth is that HD DVD pricing is much closer to what worked for the DVD launch. I doubt Toshiba was losing money on the A1 but even if they were figured the loss on the A1 would be offset by the gain on the XA1. Now with the simplified design, and removal of analog components the A2 has a nice profit margin. The 150 million for advertising was paid for by the HD DVD Group not Toshiba. The HD DVD financial outlook is doing fine. That can't be said about Sony and their $250 - $400 loss per PS3. Selll 3.5 million systems drop $1billion. Wow now thats some serious red ink.
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post #69 of 268 Old 12-10-2006, 07:33 AM
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Don't forget to factor in inflation:
US gov't stats show that $489 in '97 is equivalent to $615 in '06.
Or that paying $1000 for the '97 player is like paying $1257 today.

Then toss in the psychological magic of x99 price points:
$499 is a way better price than $503, like $999 is a way better price than $1026.

I'm pretty sure one of you geniuses can build a ginormous excel sheet to prove, analytically, beyond a shodow of a doubt, that one format will exterminate the other at 4:16 PM on March 12, 2007.

I'm on the edge of my seat, breathless with anticipation.
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post #70 of 268 Old 12-10-2006, 08:41 AM
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So there were a couple of crippled decks with zero features, so sue me.
The cheaper decks weren't crippled at all. There were only one or two consumer televisions that had component inputs at the time, most of the enthusiast mags were telling people to hook up their players via S-Video, and the results(for the time) were great.
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post #71 of 268 Old 12-10-2006, 08:59 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shuley
The general public will decide who will win the format war....this won't be untill you find players for under $200 and new movies priced at $14.99-$19.99. The general public has no idea what VC-1 is or what the differance is between DTS and DTS-HD is,the early adopters know and alot of them think everyone else does too.

Not to mention that they don't know and don't care what studio owns what movie. They will look at what is cheapest on the hardware side and what has more software available on the shelves.
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post #72 of 268 Old 12-10-2006, 08:59 AM
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No component=crippled.

That's like saying it doesn't matter if BR or HD has HDMI or not
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post #73 of 268 Old 12-10-2006, 09:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WickyWoo
No component=crippled.

That's like saying it doesn't matter if BR or HD has HDMI or not
The Toshiba 3006 which I paid $600 for in April, 1997 had component outputs and was the first DVD player to have them.

http://www.hometheaterhifi.com/volum...shiba3006.html
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post #74 of 268 Old 12-10-2006, 09:21 AM
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Originally Posted by Petra
Can you guess on this ad which films will be out on HD-DVD? Didn't think so.

Supporter of 3-D, so let's all play in harmony!
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post #75 of 268 Old 12-10-2006, 09:43 AM
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Originally Posted by billabong_84
Yeah Blu-ray has 5 players on the market and more movie studios but along with that comes the +$1000 pricetag... The average person looks at $500 player and see's a better value...

Hmmm let's see $1000 or $500 you make the choice.... :cool:
Im in both camps now since you can get a BR player for $500 (PS3)

I hate everyone thats says you cant get one now,WRONG. If you want one you can get it at any B&M. It takes alittle effort but it can be done. I looked for a week and found one on the 7th day. There getting easier everyday to find one.
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post #76 of 268 Old 12-10-2006, 10:17 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by P. Anthony
Can you guess on this ad which films will be out on HD-DVD? Didn't think so.
I'm guessing they all will be eventually. :cool:

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post #77 of 268 Old 12-10-2006, 11:28 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WickyWoo
No component=crippled.

That's like saying it doesn't matter if BR or HD has HDMI or not

Component wasn't even a factor in 1997, it was considered a luxury item for the one or two high end televisions that had it. On the other hand, HDMI is needed for the full implementation of the High Def formats. No comparision.
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post #78 of 268 Old 12-10-2006, 11:53 AM
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Topics like this are useless. All they contain is a lot of speculation and the opportunity to take a slam.

Both formats have advantages and disadvantages, pros and cons. The bottom line is that it will take years before there is any clear cut winner and loser, and even then it's more than possible both formats could co-exist with both being winners or losers.

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post #79 of 268 Old 12-10-2006, 12:03 PM
 
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Actually, namechamps' info contains an error. The Toshiba SD-2006 llisted for $499 and the SD-3006 listed for $599. I know, I bought one the day it was available the first week of April '97 at the local Montgomery Ward's department store, the only place in town to carry a DVD player that month. I also bought the $1000 Sony that June.

And, yes, I'm old enough that I remember that far back.
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post #80 of 268 Old 12-10-2006, 12:13 PM
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BD-25 costs $5 + to replicate. BD-50 costs ?? to replicate?
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post #81 of 268 Old 12-10-2006, 12:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WickyWoo
So there were a couple of crippled decks with zero features, so sue me. The ones that today would be considered a basic feature set were still $1000 though.
??? What are you talking about? What was crippled about the SD-3006 or the SD-2006. What critical features were they missing that the $1000+ DVD players had?

Please clarify this 'basic feature set' that these didn't have. I know it is not progressive or DTS out, because none had those. Please enlighten.

I honestly don't know what you are talking about.
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post #82 of 268 Old 12-10-2006, 12:20 PM
 
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The $1000 Sony couldn't pass a DTS bitstream.
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post #83 of 268 Old 12-10-2006, 12:23 PM
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No component=crippled.
While that is debatable (since most people's TV at the time didn't have component inputs), the SD-3006 DID have component out and was listed at $599.

So what was THAT missing that made it "crippled" compared to the $1000+ players?

(Edited to change SD-3006 list from $699 to $599, as per Obi. And $600 was definitely what I paid for it as well)
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post #84 of 268 Old 12-10-2006, 12:38 PM
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Again, people are saying one side is winning?

HD DVD has a combined $150 million dollar advertising campaign.

Blu-ray has a combined $130 million dollar advertising campaign.

Neiher has covered the cost of advertising. That, according to the basic laws of marketing, is a failure for both sides.
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post #85 of 268 Old 12-10-2006, 12:47 PM
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BD-25 costs $5 + to replicate. BD-50 costs ?? to replicate?
Try closer to $1.50. Maybe if you include all of the packing, shipping, handling, advertising and storage of the beast it might hit $5. BD-50 is at most 50 cents more.
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post #86 of 268 Old 12-10-2006, 01:12 PM
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Originally Posted by lostsoldier
HD DVD has a combined $150 million dollar advertising campaign.

Blu-ray has a combined $130 million dollar advertising campaign.

Neiher has covered the cost of advertising. That, according to the basic laws of marketing, is a failure for both sides.
What? What laws of marketing are we talking about? Advertising dollars are spent to generate NEW consumer spending dollars (dollars not yet spent.) Advertising dollars are not spent because the dollars have already been received to support the spending...it is to generate the future business to cover the advertising spending...plus...

How in the world can anyone reading these posts make a logical informed decision with all the illogical business concepts?
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post #87 of 268 Old 12-10-2006, 11:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert George
The $1000 Sony couldn't pass a DTS bitstream.
If I'm not mistaken, NO first-generation DVD players could. This had more to do with development problems in the DTS camp than it did any of the player manufacturers.
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post #88 of 268 Old 12-11-2006, 04:19 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WickyWoo
So there were a couple of crippled decks with zero features, so sue me. The ones that today would be considered a basic feature set were still $1000 though.
Once again, completely false. I bought the Pioneer DV-500 ON LAUNCH DAY at United Audio Center (now Tweeter) for $600, then went across the street to Best Buy and picked up Twister, A Time to Kill, The Fugitive, and Blade Runner (don't know if I got Eraser that day or a few weeks later). Everyone says DVD was launched in March, but for some reason I remember it being late February. But of course, I don't have my receipt anymore, so I'll give that one up.

But that player served me well until 2.5 years later when The Matrix was released and it couldn't keep audio sync. So it was replaced with a Sony DVP-S7700 (again for $600). My uncle still uses (and is VERY happy with) the DV-500 to this day, and I still maintain that it had the best remote for any DVD player ever.

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post #89 of 268 Old 12-11-2006, 06:04 AM
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Originally Posted by WickyWoo
So there were a couple of crippled decks with zero features, so sue me. The ones that today would be considered a basic feature set were still $1000 though.
So the crippled decks didn't have basic features? Eject button? Play button? A place to attach your TV? A plug?

Or perhaps it's just that you don't want the count the players that make you wrong.
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post #90 of 268 Old 12-11-2006, 06:21 AM
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Or perhaps it's just that you don't want the count the players that make you wrong.
I admitted they were there, you keep harping but it's true that they stipped out now=standard features like component outs to get there.

Regardless, there were DVD players from the same manufacturers in the same price ranges at launch, and considering that the real launch of BR wasn't until 3 weeks ago, we've got those lower prices covered as well.
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