Studio (Fox) Research Shows BD Vastly Outpacing HD DVD (chart) - Page 2 - AVS Forum | Home Theater Discussions And Reviews
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post #31 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 08:19 AM
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That's one very dubious chart. I wouldn't put much stock in -ANYONE- that published a chart like this (whether it be Blu Ray, HD-DVD, or anyone else). It's just... feeble.

If Blu-Ray suddenly starts beating HD-DVD in sales, it will be clear as day to us. We'll see it in the amazon numbers. We'll see it at stores (titles being out of stock). We'll see -real- charts.

We won't see marketing material.
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post #32 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 08:23 AM - Thread Starter
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The dates clearly refer to 10/30/06 to 12/25/07. It's a mistake which has been commented on a number of times already in this thread. And I happen to agree with Skogan that it doesn't lend an air of authority to the chart.

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Originally Posted by skogan View Post

They don't specify whether it was a one time spike, or whether it has maintained a lead, which would be interesting. I agree that it shows they are interested in aggressively marketing BD, and that means they are pretty committed to that format.

Presumably the next datapoint at 01/01/07 is also no a matter of historical record. This point of the chart shows HD DVD sales falling back while BD remains about even. A quick look at DVDEmpire suggests there is some credance to this report. Last year DVDEmpire* report selling 61.13% HD DVD and 38.87% out of their HD department. The last month has seen sales of 44.94% HD DVD and 55.06% BD. It's only one additional data point, but it is at least something.

* Note these are their own figures and do not appear to be extrapilated from sales rankings or some other unknown factor. They would appear to be solid numbers, all-be-it from only one online retailer.
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post #33 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 08:24 AM
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Originally Posted by rlsmith View Post

For those calling "foul": the HD DVD group's press release last night projected a factor of 40 growth for HD DVD in the year 2007.

Yes, I support HD-DVD and I chuckled at that one too. I expect growth, but not 4000%.

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Originally Posted by rlsmith View Post

1. Assuming you don't think Blu-ray sales have surpassed HD DVD sales, how long do you think it will take, given that release schedule?

Well, HD-DVD has a pretty nice release schedule coming up too. That being said, if Blu-Ray studios bring their big guns to market and ALSO publish a large portion of their catalog, they may have enough titles to "outsell" HD-DVD simply by weight of numbers. Selling a little bit of a lot of titles will prop up the Blu-Ray sales and make them look better.

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Originally Posted by rlsmith View Post

2. Once Blu-ray sales do overtake HD DVD, what event(s) occur to reverse that trend?

If that happens, it will be interesting to see what does happen. I would imagine we'd see alot more catalogue titles coming out quickly to counteract the effect.
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post #34 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 08:32 AM
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Well, HD-DVD has a pretty nice release schedule coming up too. That being said, if Blu-Ray studios bring their big guns to market and ALSO publish a large portion of their catalog, they may have enough titles to "outsell" HD-DVD simply by weight of numbers. Selling a little bit of a lot of titles will prop up the Blu-Ray sales and make them look better.

That's always how BR was going to win. Sheer weight of numbers.


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If that happens, it will be interesting to see what does happen. I would imagine we'd see alot more catalogue titles coming out quickly to counteract the effect

The big problem is that they're going to burn through Universal's big guns rather quickly.
Warner and Paramount are neutral, so they're out of the picture

They have what-

Back to the Future
Jurassic Park
Jaws

I know I'm missing some, this is strictly off the top of my head. If they blow their wad next Xmas, which they will as a last gasp effort, they'll do probably 2 of those.

They're fighting with what, 10-15% of movies exclusive against BR's 60%. Dueling blockbusters is not a war they can win.
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post #35 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 08:32 AM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by bboisvert View Post

Wow, I was expecting some actual sales info from CES. What Fox did in that chart is no different than a fanboy on AVS saying "blue-ray rulz! It's gonna kick in 2010! There's no stopping us now!"

Please read the thread before posting to it.
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post #36 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 08:38 AM
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Originally Posted by Issac Hunt View Post

Please read the thread before posting to it.

Umm... I did. Thanks.

Please feel free to let me know how that chart and Fox's 'predictions' have any basis in reality. Again, no one can predict that far in advance. And do you honestly think that a huge upward swing for BD and a flatline for HD DVD is reasonable?

That's not sales data. That's rationalizing your current business stance. Which I suppose is fine. But I wouldn't expect anyone to actually accept it as gospel. Unless you're already inclined to believe it in the first place.
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post #37 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 08:45 AM
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Please feel free to let me know how that chart and Fox's 'predictions' have any basis in reality. Again, no one can predict that far in advance. And do you honestly think that a huge upward swing for BD and a flatline for HD DVD is reasonable?

Let's see

Over 1.2 million Blu-Ray playing devices sold into homes, as opposed to 300,000 HD-DVD (including 360)

Fox and Disney just tossed down the major gauntlet of titles

5 studios exclusive compromising over 60% of the movies ever made, vs 1 with maybe 10%

Every major CE but one, and a couple of enthusiast-only brands(and prices), and one broken combo player, making Blu-Ray

Yes, logic dictates it's highly reasonable, if not probable
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post #38 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 09:11 AM
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This is hilarious!!!

My GOD WHAT HORRIBLE, HORRIBLE, HORRIBLE use of "what if!"

FACT:

Videoscan numbers are only thru the 24th right now.

On ONE DAY in that week, BD sales surpassed HD-DVD by 21%.

WOW.

So that means that 1 day is equal to them totally 100% passing HD-DVD?!?!

Ok. That makes no sense.

BTW I now believe that FOX must have plants on here. Because that's the type of post I'd expect from Wicky or someone from the sales spike.

Nobody denied the sales spike, but it was one freakin day.
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post #39 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 10:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WickyWoo View Post

Let's see

1. Over 1.2 million Blu-Ray playing devices sold into homes, as opposed to 300,000 HD-DVD (including 360)

2. Fox and Disney just tossed down the major gauntlet of titles

3. 5 studios exclusive compromising over 60% of the movies ever made, vs 1 with maybe 10%

4. Every major CE but one, and a couple of enthusiast-only brands(and prices), and one broken combo player, making Blu-Ray

Yes, logic dictates it's highly reasonable, if not probable

I've numbered your points for rebuttal.

1. Great. How do you use that to project that huge upward curve? The stats you're quoting there are true *today*. And BD and HD DVD are basically in a virtual dead heat in sales, with HD DVD maybe even being in the lead. Why a close race today leads to both a flatline of HD DVD in the future and a upward swing in BD isn't explained by your list.

I won't even get into the fact that many of your "BD playing devices" may never be used to play films.

2. You may call that a "major gauntlet" (and certainly things like Pirates or Cars is a start). But some people still don't see those as huge titles.

3+4. All of that has been true since day one. Why does this cause a huge spike on the chart for the future like that?



Again, to take this out of fanboy-dream-land, there has to be some sort of actual analysis/math behind that chart. I just don't see it. Show me a single thing (prediction or otherwise) that would indicate that HD DVD shows *zero* growth from today onward. That's nuts.
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post #40 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 10:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BuGsArEtAsTy View Post

That picture shows dates of 2010 and 2011.

Anyways, it's Fox. What more can you say?

Apparently all the numbers were multiplied and extrapolated by the O'Reilly Factor which explains their accuracy.
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post #41 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 10:16 AM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bboisvert View Post

Please feel free to let me know how that chart and Fox's 'predictions' have any basis in reality. Again, no one can predict that far in advance. And do you honestly think that a huge upward swing for BD and a flatline for HD DVD is reasonable?

It doesn't seem you have read this thread. The dates used on the chart are incorrectly labled. '06 for '10 and '07 for '11. This has been mentioned a number of times. Not sure how you could miss it...
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post #42 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 10:52 AM
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this is amazing .. the title of the chart is saying 2007 yet the date provided is the projected sales for 2010 and 2011 .. i bet there are "journalists", websites and those who prefers to ignore the 2010 and 2011 figures that would enterpret the result as for 2006 and 2007. The title of the chart is already leading them to thinkthat its 2006 and 2007. Compare the size of the title and the years .. anyhow its FOX, they single handedly damaged their own brand name with their IRAQ and BUSH debacle.

btw- the amount of US service person killed in Iraq has surpassed those died in 911.

FOX anyone ?
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post #43 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 11:00 AM
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1. Great. How do you use that to project that huge upward curve into 2011? The stats you're quoting there are true *today*. And BD and HD DVD are basically in a virtual dead heat in sales, with HD DVD maybe even being in the lead. Why a close race today leads to both a flatline of HD DVD in the future and a upward swing in BD isn't explained by your list.

Quote:
2. You may call that a "major gauntlet" (and certainly things like Pirates or Cars is a start). But some people still don't see those as huge titles.

3+4. All of that has been true since day one. Why does this cause a huge spike on the chart for the future like that?

Because BR will win, and become the dominant format should these trends continue, and there's no sign they won't. Then with the prices coming down on the decks and the discs, and with the gradual phasing out of SD-DVD players it's a foregone conclusion that they'll by default rise.

Whether or not they choose to see those as huge titles is irrelevant. We're talking 2 of the top 3 titles of last year)Pirates was #1, cars 3), each one moved well over 10 million units. The people who matter are not the enthusiasts, it's Bertha in Biloxi, and she wants to see Captain Jack

Most of the rest of the titles are perennial best sellers.
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post #44 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 11:01 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xboxboi View Post

this is amazing .. the title of the chart is saying 2007 yet the date provided is the projected sales for 2010 and 2011 .. i bet there are "journalists", websites and those who prefers to ignore the 2010 and 2011 figures that would enterpret the result as for 2006 and 2007. The title of the chart is already leading them to thinkthat its 2006 and 2007. Compare the size of the title and the years .. anyhow its FOX, they single handedly damaged their own brand name with their IRAQ and BUSH debacle.

btw- the amount of US service person killed in Iraq has surpassed those died in 911.

FOX anyone ?

What has the Iraq war got anything to do with this format war? Do us a favor and stay on topic and keep politics away. There are other fora for such pointless discussions.
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post #45 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 11:03 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Issac Hunt View Post

It doesn't seem you have read this thread. The dates used on the chart are incorrectly labled. '06 for '10 and '07 for '11. This has been mentioned a number of times. Not sure how you could miss it...

oh .. an independent research making this kinda of "ERROR" at CES ... unbelievable. anyhow, the chart will be deemed absolutely useless if a BD exclusive studio release titles on HD DVD? Is the research applicable worldwide or just in USA? Does the research take into consideration BD exclusive titles in the USA sold as HD DVD tiles in other part of the world, Japan and Europe for example?
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post #46 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 11:07 AM
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Does the research take into consideration BD exclusive titles in the USA sold as HD DVD tiles in other part of the world, Japan and Europe for example?

Considering that HD-DVD is really only a factor in the US, at least at the moment, those titles are having very little impact on the big picture.
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post #47 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 11:21 AM
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HD DVD is big in Europe too.
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post #48 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 11:58 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by deria View Post

If Blu-Ray suddenly starts beating HD-DVD in sales, it will be clear as day to us. We'll see it in the amazon numbers. We'll see it at stores (titles being out of stock). We'll see -real- charts.

That looks way overoptimistic to me, but as far as Amazon numbers, at least for the average for the rankings of the top 10, Blu-ray passed HD DVD for a short period today and has now fallen back a little. Here is today's chart:

http://www.hdgamedb.com/amazon/histo...TYPE=10&SPAN=0

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post #49 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 12:03 PM
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Blu-ray titles outsold hd-dvd by 20% on the week of 12/24/06 is a fact, and it further proves how inaccuratate the amazon sales data is. But I have to say BDsales got alot of help from the mail-in rebates included with the PS3 though.
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post #50 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 12:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WickyWoo View Post

Because BR will win, and become the dominant format should these trends continue, and there's no sign they won't. Then with the prices coming down on the decks and the discs, and with the gradual phasing out of SD-DVD players it's a foregone conclusion that they'll by default rise.

Whether or not they choose to see those as huge titles is irrelevant. We're talking 2 of the top 3 titles of last year)Pirates was #1, cars 3), each one moved well over 10 million units. The people who matter are not the enthusiasts, it's Bertha in Biloxi, and she wants to see Captain Jack

Most of the rest of the titles are perennial best sellers.

I've got news for you-Bertha in Biloxi is perfectly happy with DVD. Bertha won't even think about buying one of these players until it falls to $50. And that isn't going to take place anytime soon.

How many PS3 buyers have already bought their one or two movies, and that's pretty much it? Will the attach rate be so much better (and consistent) for HD DVD that it will pretty much make up for the sales of PS3s? I don't believe that we have an answer to these questions yet, and won't for a while.

We don't know the impact that the apparent better availability of the Toshiba players in 2007 will have. HD DVD players were invisible at Circuit City up until recently. And of course the second generation Toshiba was not available until well into December.

It might be a little early to be making any predictions.
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post #51 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 12:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hd90210 View Post

Blu-ray titles outsold hd-dvd by 20% on the week of 12/24/06 is a fact, and it further proves how inaccuratate the amazon sales data is. But I have to say BDsales got alot of help from the mail-in rebates included with the PS3 though.

What is your neutral source for that fact? Is the Videoscan data available for that entire week or not?
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post #52 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 12:30 PM
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I've got news for you-Bertha in Biloxi is perfectly happy with DVD. Bertha won't even think about buying one of these players until it falls to $50. And that isn't going to take place anytime soon.

And when they stop selling SD DVD players, Bertha's going to have to buy a new one when her cheap chinese piece of crap dies on her sooner rather than later
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post #53 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 12:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Jarod M View Post

I've got news for you-Bertha in Biloxi is perfectly happy with DVD. Bertha won't even think about buying one of these players until it falls to $50. And that isn't going to take place anytime soon.

I happen to know Bertha. She's gonna buy when it hits $99. However, her brother John-boy is ready to buy an HD disc player when it hits $249, for his brand-spankin' new 42" plasma.


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Originally Posted by WickyWoo View Post

And when they stop selling SD DVD players, Bertha's going to have to buy a new one when her cheap chinese piece of crap dies on her sooner rather than later

Heh. I have two cheap POS Chinese players that still work fine after 4 years. (I bought them because they were easily made region free.)
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post #54 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 12:37 PM
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Heh. I have two cheap POS Chinese players that still work fine after 4 years. (I bought them because they were easily made region free.)

I've got a 600A and a Phillips DVP-642, but they're only used for region free and DivX playback, which is why they haven't died on me. I doubt they have combined 5% of the hours my Pioneer stuff has on it.

And on the Apex the digital coax out came off the board, and I had to have it resoldered. That's when I found out the entire board was traced, BY HAND
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post #55 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 05:38 PM
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Andy Parsons, chair of the U.S. Promotions committee is comfortable citing Blu-ray's industry support as a reason customers have voted with their wallets and will continue to do so. In 2007 the BDA looks forward to second generation PC and and standalone Blu-ray drives, like the BD-P1200, the Sony Vaio XL3 and a strong lineup of movie releases as why its market share will continue to increase this year, all but eliminating any competition by 2010.

Well this came out of the BD press announcements today. The chair of the BD promotions committe is saying that the format war could drag out to 2010. Doesn't this imply that the dates on the graph that was presented in this thread are the actual dates (2010-2011) that BD predicts before it pulls ahead. So basically they are saying BD and HD-DVD will run neck-in-neck until sometime in 2010.

Isn't a 3-year long format war bad for BD, HD-DVD and consumers in general. How long will studios remain exclusive if sales are neck-in-neck for almost three years? A studio could double its sales revenue by switching to dual format like WB.

The dubious nature of the chart, combined with Parsons comments make me highly suspect that BD is just falsifying information to paint themselves in the better light.
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If people think current HD-DVD sales numbers are higher, then the question is why did the HD-DVD press release not quote current sales numbers and instead opt for a projected attach rate?
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post #57 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 06:03 PM
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Originally Posted by wnorris View Post

Well this came out of the BD press announcements today. The chair of the BD promotions committe is saying that the format war could drag out to 2010. Doesn't this imply that the dates on the graph that was presented in this thread are the actual dates (2010-2011) that BD predicts before it pulls ahead.

No, because it just wouldn't make any logical sense for both formats to be tied 4 and a half years after introduction (12/24/2010) and for one to have a 3.5:1 advantage just 3 months later, unless there was some huge event right around Christmas of 2010. I think it is obviously a mistake on the dates because the claim was about how sales actually compared less than a month ago and how they will be about 3 months from now, not how they will be in close to 4 years and then 4 years and 3 months. While I think the ramp there is way over-optimistic, it makes a lot more sense to have that kind of percentage growth this early than over 4 years into it. Whichever format wins (assuming one does), growth on a percentage basis should be much lower 4 years from now than that shows.

And if either format sells less than 100,000 discs the week before Christmas 4 years from now, then they really didn't take off at all.

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post #58 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 06:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Issac Hunt View Post

Some figures from the only people likely to know the entire picture.

Really, Fox is the only corp which knows the "entire" picture

I declare this Fair & Balanced reporting ... and leave it at that

ps : sorry if our friends from the other side of the pond don't get the meaning ....
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post #59 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 06:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Rob Zuber View Post

If people think current HD-DVD sales numbers are higher, then the question is why did the HD-DVD press release not quote current sales numbers and instead opt for a projected attach rate?

opps gotcha ... HDDVD attach rate as announced = 28. BDA did not announce any attach rate. WHY? They sales projection is based on BD having more titles for sale - with their three exclusive studios. Attach rate would take into consideration number of players available too. that is also not good for BD because of PS3. come out with a chart with same number of tiles released on both side, HD DVD will beat BD hands down. Oh btw- the chart is assuming that the studio exclusivity has not change during the applicable aplicable years
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post #60 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 07:01 PM
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opps gotcha ... HDDVD attach rate as announced = 28. BDA did not announce any attach rate. WHY? They sales projection is based on BD having more titles for sale - with their three exclusive studios. Attach rate would take into consideration number of players available too. that is also not good for BD because of PS3. come out with a chart with same number of tiles released on both side, HD DVD will beat BD hands down. Oh btw- the chart is assuming that the studio exclusivity has not change during the applicable aplicable years

Because there is absolutely no sign of studio exclusivity changing any time in the near future, and HD's attach rate is greatly artificially inflated due to it pretty much solely being purchased by enthusiasts? Most people don't buy 28 movies for their DVD players in their lifetimes
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