Studio (Fox) Research Shows BD Vastly Outpacing HD DVD (chart) - Page 3 - AVS Forum | Home Theater Discussions And Reviews
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post #61 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 07:42 PM
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Most people don't buy 28 movies for their DVD players in their lifetimes

This is damn sure not going to be good news for the PS3 then.
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post #62 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 07:53 PM
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This is damn sure not going to be good news for the PS3 then.

Nah, cause they only need them to buy 5 movies, and less all the time, since there are 5x as many BR decks out there. It's not the attach rate, it's the raw tonnage. As I said the 28 attach is a ridiculous figure, and a completely invalid sample of what would happen in "the wild", with everyone buying them. All you're seeing is 175,000 HT nerds with a lot of money to blow (the 360 was not included in their figures, probably because it really hurts that crazy number)
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post #63 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 07:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WickyWoo View Post

Nah, cause they only need them to buy 5 movies, and less all the time, since there are 5x as many BR decks out there. It's not the attach rate, it's the raw tonnage.

WickyWoo - I asked a question to you about one of your posts. Can you answer this ? Are you in anyway connected to any of the companies which are in anyway connected to the format war ?

https://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showt...&&#post9372201

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It's about $120 to manufacture an HD-ROM, about $180 for BD-ROM, and about $15 each for the drive they're currently using.


How do you know or rather why do you write as if you know ? Are you an insider or just trying to act like one ?

You should realize that at AVS you need to declare if you are an insider and put it in your signature.

Edit :

Also here :

https://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showt...03#post9373303

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Originally Posted by WickyWoo View Post

Maybe he has, but either way his numbers do not match up with the numbers we have officially reported.


Hmmm ... who exactly are you ... what is "we" above ? You joined just about a month back and have posted quite a bit here ...

If you are an insider, you should declare your affiliations.

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post #64 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 08:01 PM
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Nah, cause they only need them to buy 5 movies, and less all the time, since there are 5x as many BR decks out there.

Assuming those people see the PS3 as a standalone player. You still have to convince people it's really not a "Playstation".
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post #65 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 08:47 PM
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WickyWoo - I asked a question to you about one of your posts. Can you answer this ? Are you in anyway connected to any of the companies which are in anyway connected to the format war ?

I have previously made full disclosure that I have absolutely no financial interest in any of the companies involved. If you want the full details, do a search.

And the "we" was simply a typo.

And if you learned to multitask properly, then you to could post a hell of a lot too.

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Assuming those people see the PS3 as a standalone player. You still have to convince people it's really not a "Playstation".

I've posted how many times now? It fits every definition of a standalone, including the dictionary.

It plays BR out of the box with no other devices required. It's a standalone. It's just that the HD-DVD fanboys don't like it because it makes the numbers blow them away.

If you did your own research, and did your reading then you too would have this information and these numbers. Start reading things like Variety.com, Video Business, Home Media Retailing, it's amazing the kinds of facts and figures you'll get
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post #66 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 09:07 PM
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Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

No, because it just wouldn't make any logical sense for both formats to be tied 4 and a half years after introduction (12/24/2010) and for one to have a 3.5:1 advantage just 3 months later, unless there was some huge event right around Christmas of 2010. I think it is obviously a mistake on the dates because the claim was about how sales actually compared less than a month ago and how they will be about 3 months from now, not how they will be in close to 4 years and then 4 years and 3 months. While I think the ramp there is way over-optimistic, it makes a lot more sense to have that kind of percentage growth this early than over 4 years into it. Whichever format wins (assuming one does), growth on a percentage basis should be much lower 4 years from now than that shows.

And if either format sells less than 100,000 discs the week before Christmas 4 years from now, then they really didn't take off at all.

--Darin

Then why is the head BD rep saying that the battle will last into 2010? Why not say 2008 if what you say is true?

Are you saying two different people made the exact same mistake?
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post #67 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 09:09 PM
 
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A BD exclusive studio projecting positive BD sales forecasts... wow. Must be the truth.
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post #68 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 09:11 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Rob Zuber View Post

You gotta love HD-DVD supporters who think the format with more studios and more players in the market can't possibly be selling more titles.

HD DVD has more players *used as players* in the market.

Gotta love Rob Zuber who is blind to HD DVD outselling BD at every turn. Oh, except in Fox "research". lol.
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post #69 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 09:14 PM
 
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Originally Posted by WickyWoo View Post

Let's see

Over 1.2 million Blu-Ray playing devices sold into homes, as opposed to 300,000 HD-DVD (including 360)

Fox and Disney just tossed down the major gauntlet of titles

5 studios exclusive compromising over 60% of the movies ever made, vs 1 with maybe 10%

Every major CE but one, and a couple of enthusiast-only brands(and prices), and one broken combo player, making Blu-Ray

Yes, logic dictates it's highly reasonable, if not probable

Sold into homes? LOL! Even Sony isn't saying that. SHIPPED. PS3 buyers aren't going to be massive BD buyers. HDA2/XA2 buuers *are*.

Give it a rest WickyPoo, you don't have either format or an HDTV for that matter.
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post #70 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 09:33 PM
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Originally Posted by WickyWoo View Post

I have previously made full disclosure that I have absolutely no financial interest in any of the companies involved. If you want the full details, do a search.

So where do you work ?
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post #71 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 10:32 PM
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Originally Posted by wnorris View Post

Then why is the head BD rep saying that the battle will last into 2010? Why not say 2008 if what you say is true?

There is nothing I said that means the battle can't go to 2010.
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Originally Posted by wnorris View Post

Are you saying two different people made the exact same mistake?

I see a mistake on the Fox chart. What 2nd mistake are you talking about? The chair said it could drag out to 2010 according to what you wrote. I don't see anything wrong with that, as it could. The VHS vs Beta war took a while.

--Darin

This is the AV Science Forum. Please don't be gullible and please do remember the saying, "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me."
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post #72 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 10:41 PM
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Originally Posted by WickyWoo View Post

I've posted how many times now? It fits every definition of a standalone, including the dictionary.

It plays BR out of the box with no other devices required. It's a standalone. It's just that the HD-DVD fanboys don't like it because it makes the numbers blow them away.

I think the reason feathers get ruffled is that playing Blu Ray movies is nott he implied primary use of the device, and will most likely not be a used feature for the vast majority of PS3 owners.

Did you know that the PS2 could play SACDs? Most people didn't.
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post #73 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 10:58 PM
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The whole press release reeks of desperation...BDA's best hope was for HD-DVD not to launch and then they screwed up their own launch..poor quality movies, overpriced players which didnt deliver anywhere near the quality that their $1000-$1299 price points demanded espcially compared to what HD DVD was putting out.
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post #74 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 11:02 PM
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Mike Dunn is a rat.

Joe V.
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post #75 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 11:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob Zuber View Post

You gotta love HD-DVD supporters who think the format with more studios and more players in the market can't possibly be selling more titles.

"be selling" - no. will you quit being delusional? you're making ardent and rational BD fans look real bad
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post #76 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 11:16 PM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by cityscapex5 View Post

The whole press release reeks of desperation...BDA's best hope was for HD-DVD not to launch and then they screwed up their own launch..poor quality movies, overpriced players which didnt deliver anywhere near the quality that their $1000-$1299 price points demanded espcially compared to what HD DVD was putting out.

Mmm, BD outselling HD DVD by a 20% margin is clearly a cause for desperation.
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post #77 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 11:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Issac Hunt View Post

Mmm, BD outselling HD DVD by a 20% margin is clearly a cause for desperation.

I have yet to see sales numbers from 2006 that state that.



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post #78 of 162 Old 01-09-2007, 05:24 AM
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Yeah, flat/zero'd growth for HD-DVD?

I don't think so.

-Josh Murrah
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post #79 of 162 Old 01-09-2007, 05:46 AM
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Originally Posted by Issac Hunt View Post

Mmm, BD outselling HD DVD by a 20% margin is clearly a cause for desperation.

I believe it has been established now (using Videoscan numbers) that BD outsold HD-DVD by a 20% margin FOR ONE DAY! A single day... very impressive.
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post #80 of 162 Old 01-09-2007, 05:53 AM
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Projected sales?!?!?!?!

Good lord have mercy on their souls!
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post #81 of 162 Old 01-09-2007, 05:58 AM
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Originally Posted by WickyWoo View Post

Notice how they keep focusing on the projected area

Seriously, did you expect htem to graph by the hour or something? Fox has access to the VideoScan numbers, and since they are easily verifiable by those with access (which Toshiba and Uni certainly do), they would be foolish to make such a claim if it wasn't true

It's like the people who think we didn't go to the moon. Do you really think if they'd just parked up there that the Russians wouldn't have been all over it? Their tracking technology was at least as good as ours at the time. They would have been bullhorning it to the entire world that the US were big liars.

And in all honesty, who really would think that HD optical disc would take off before 2010? There still aren't enough HDTVs out there (really need 40-50% penetration) for enough people to even think about buying decks yet

How can you not the whole chart is projected, LOOK AT THE DATES ON IT!

Buckle up and hold my beer I wanna try somethin'
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post #82 of 162 Old 01-09-2007, 06:32 AM
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Originally Posted by WickyWoo View Post

It's not the attach rate, it's the raw tonnage.

This is a common misconception, and it doesn't matter which side of the fence you stand on to realize the futility in such a statement.

Studios *want* formats with high attach rates...it means you have an effectively captive audience, with is a goldmine...less pain in guessing which titles will hit, less marketing dollars to burn trying to figure out who your customer is, etc. The "damn the attach rate, focus on the total sales" argument resulted in the disastrous UMD debacle, where titles got cranked out to sit on shelves because 1-2 titles hit it big...and the studios are still wincing from that.

Again, this isn't pro/con either format, so please don't interpret it as such. I'm just saying that 250,000 devices with a 10:1 attach is "more valuable" to content providers than 2,500,000 devices with a 1:1 attach.

Carry on...

P.S. I hate to cast even more doubt on the chart, but they used YY as a year format. Has anyone considered the possibility they are talking about 3011?

Alex doesn't live here anymore
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post #83 of 162 Old 01-09-2007, 06:46 AM
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Studios *want* formats with high attach rates...it means you have an effectively captive audience, with is a goldmine..

Yes they do, but if there's only one format, they have their captive audience.
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post #84 of 162 Old 01-09-2007, 06:55 AM
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Originally Posted by WickyWoo View Post

Yes they do, but if there's only one format, they have their captive audience.

There wouldn't be just one format.
Even if HD DVD conceded and bowed out, regular ole sd dvd isn't going anywhere for a while.
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post #85 of 162 Old 01-09-2007, 07:16 AM
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There wouldn't be just one format.
Even if HD DVD conceded and bowed out, regular ole sd dvd isn't going anywhere for a while.

True, but they'll be phasing out the decks over the next 5 years. By 2012, you won't be able to buy a DVD player, just Blu-Ray.
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post #86 of 162 Old 01-09-2007, 07:22 AM
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I've posted how many times now? It fits every definition of a standalone, including the dictionary.

I don't care how many times you said it Wicky. And I don't care what the dictionary says. The PLAYSTATION 3 is no more a primary movie player as the Playstation 2 was a primary DVD player.

Variety.com and Home Media Retailing doesn't cover the video game market now do they. But I have. It's been my side job for the better part of 10 years between DreamcastHQ.com and Next Level Gaming, which up until December I owned and ran. So I think I'm pretty well versed in the video game industry.

One more time. The PS3 is a video game machine. The absolute majority buy it to play video games. Whether you like that or not, that's what it is. Yes, a small handful of people will buy it for the expressed purpose of watching movies on it. But the word PLAYSTATION denotes video games. And most people, MOST PEOPLE, don't like watching movies on their video game consoles.
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post #87 of 162 Old 01-09-2007, 07:25 AM
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I don't care how many times you said it Wicky. And I don't care what the dictionary says. The PLAYSTATION 3 is no more a primary movie player as the Playstation 2 was a primary DVD player.

"Facts mean nothing to me! Because it interferes with my opinion, I dismiss it! I care not for court-admissable evidence like dictionaries!"
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post #88 of 162 Old 01-09-2007, 08:48 AM
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The art of publishing a PR is to make thing sound good while appearing to your readers that your are not too bias and what your are stating is credible. This POS published by FOX is hurting more their credibility than achieving anything. I am format neutral but I don't like being considered as idiot. I am really pissed and will not purchased anything from FOX (neither SD DVD or BR) for a while.
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post #89 of 162 Old 01-09-2007, 08:55 AM
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Originally Posted by WickyWoo View Post

True, but they'll be phasing out the decks over the next 5 years. By 2012, you won't be able to buy a DVD player, just Blu-Ray.

Holy crap, you might want to get that crystal ball checked. That has to be one of the most absurd statements I've seen on AVS ever. And that's saying something.
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post #90 of 162 Old 01-09-2007, 09:14 AM
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Originally Posted by bboisvert View Post

Holy crap, you might want to get that crystal ball checked. That has to be one of the most absurd statements I've seen on AVS ever. And that's saying something.

I heard that by 2012, Sony will have a little man in a suit living in your house telling what you can and can't watch! My crystal ball is one of those new Sony Bluball models.
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