Studio (Fox) Research Shows BD Vastly Outpacing HD DVD (chart) - AVS Forum | Home Theater Discussions And Reviews
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post #1 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 07:21 AM - Thread Starter
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More Than 40 Fox and MGM Titles To Debut On BD In First-Half 2007 -- Studio Research Shows BD Vastly Outpacing HD DVD (chart) --

first posted by Grubert

Quote:
"We are looking forward to this pivotal year and the ultimate establishment of Blu-ray as the high-definition packaged media standard. In fact, Blu-ray sales performance surpassed HD-DVD for the first time the week of December 24 and did so by an impressive 20 per cent. What's more, by the end of the first quarter our research shows the sales gap widening to Blu-ray outselling HD DVD by a 3.5-to-1 ratio," noted Mike Dunn, President Worldwide, Twentieth Century Fox Home Entertainment.

Some figures from the only people likely to know the entire picture.
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post #2 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 07:23 AM
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Just amazing! This is the sales surge that many of us on the Blu-ray forum started predicting back in November
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post #3 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 07:31 AM
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Bring on the cries of foul..................
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post #4 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 07:36 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WickyWoo View Post

Bring on the cries of foul..................

Let me play devil's advocate

The left half of the chart is actual sales, whereas the right half (after 1/1) is a projection.

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post #5 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 07:36 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Issac Hunt View Post

chart


That picture shows dates of 2010 and 2011.

Anyways, it's Fox. What more can you say?

If it was Paramount or Warner, I might be more inclined to believe the claims, since they are format neutral.
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post #6 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 07:37 AM
 
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In related news, sales of my DVD, "Fox and I make **** up and issue a press release" have surpassed one million units an hour based on Bar81 proprietary research
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post #7 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 07:38 AM
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Extrapolating for bluray and not for HD-DVD

Something wrong with this picture

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post #8 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 07:39 AM
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Is this chart showing the numbers 3 years later from now??
Even I interpret "10" means "06" and "11" means "07", it seems based on just speculation at least for "future" number.
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post #9 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 07:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by krinkle View Post

Just amazing! This is the sales surge that many of us on the Blu-ray forum started predicting back in November

Yeah well, don't count your chickens just yet:

1. Those are *projections* of future sales, not results of current or past sales.

2. The chart shows BR taking off in 2010, not 2007.

3. Extrapolating a surge for BR but flat for HD-DVD 3 years in the future is beyond crysal ballish...

Just trying to keep the FudPuppets(tm) in line...

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post #10 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 07:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WickyWoo View Post

Bring on the cries of foul..................

I'll bite..

FOUL !!!

Why does the chart have a title mentioning 2007, where as the sales projection really shows projected data for 2010-11 ?? WTF, Fox?

I'd take anything Mike Dunn says with a bag of salt. He is the same guy who said that HD-DVD hasn't even put up a beach-head to the BR onslaught [paraphrase] while being outsold 3:1 earlier. And I wouldn't expect anything less from "Proprietary Fox Research".
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post #11 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 07:41 AM
 
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You gotta love HD-DVD supporters who think the format with more studios and more players in the market can't possibly be selling more titles.
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post #12 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 07:42 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rob Zuber View Post

You gotta love HD-DVD supporters who think the format with more studios and more players in the market can't possibly be selling more titles.

You gotta love the delusional BR fans who believe "press releases" based on nothing in particular
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post #13 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 07:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BuGsArEtAsTy View Post

That picture shows dates of 2010 and 2011.

Ooops!!!

If we replace 10 and 11 with 06 and 07, I find it interesting that they state BD will double HD-DVD weekly sales as early as 2/11. That's rather shocking, actually. I'm still interested in actual sales numbers for both formats from objective third parties.

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post #14 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 07:49 AM
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Yep. If the brains behind BD software support can't even get the dates right on a publically issued chart, what hope does BD have? Assuming the dates on the graph are wrong, I just love how they project a huge increase in BD, but leave HD-DVD numbers flat. What current trend predicts that? Obviously the guys at Fox don't realize that part of making projections is to also include current trends into the projection. And trend has G2 HD-DVD players selling at a higher rate than G1 players, which means software sales rates will increase too.

If the dates aren't wrong, but the title is, then is BD saying this format war will drag out into 2010-2011. Well that would just be great news wouldn't it?
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post #15 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 07:52 AM
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that charts show no growth for HD DVD at all. So consumers are not going to buy anymore HD DVDs or players.

That chart would have been a little bit more believable if it had show at least some growth.

I'm saving this image and I'm going to check it in the next couple months to see how accurate it is.
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post #16 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 07:53 AM
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I find it more interseting that they think the format war will last till 2010 and 2011. Is this a real pic or is this fake? Maybe fox is giving us a hint as to when they plan on releasing Star Wars and Indiana Jones on Blu-Ray, because I could see a sales jump then.

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post #17 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 07:55 AM
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OT: Yeah, I had been predicting that Star Wars won't get released before 2010.
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post #18 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 07:56 AM
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Notice how they keep focusing on the projected area

Seriously, did you expect htem to graph by the hour or something? Fox has access to the VideoScan numbers, and since they are easily verifiable by those with access (which Toshiba and Uni certainly do), they would be foolish to make such a claim if it wasn't true

It's like the people who think we didn't go to the moon. Do you really think if they'd just parked up there that the Russians wouldn't have been all over it? Their tracking technology was at least as good as ours at the time. They would have been bullhorning it to the entire world that the US were big liars.

And in all honesty, who really would think that HD optical disc would take off before 2010? There still aren't enough HDTVs out there (really need 40-50% penetration) for enough people to even think about buying decks yet
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post #19 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 07:56 AM - Thread Starter
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The chart is of some interest since it show's Fox's intention to agressively market BD, even going so far as to use some slightly dubious predictions about future sales of HD DVD. However the key line of this article is this one: "Blu-ray sales performance surpassed HD-DVD for the first time the week of December 24 and did so by an impressive 20 per cent." This was from someone in the best possition to know the truth, and it is clearly not a future prediction up for interpretation.
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post #20 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 07:58 AM
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i am neutral on this whole thing but if HD-dvd came out with a chart surpassing 100 trillion sales on 2020, would people be impressed as well?

lol... i think not.... its just guessing research

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post #21 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 08:02 AM
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I believe them, no doubt this is based on the projected sales figures for Fox titles alone, I mean they nearly won the war already with X-Men3. How could they possibly fail?
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post #22 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 08:02 AM
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I hate to insist... but...

Can't these people even get a graphic right? 2010?? 2011???

Amateurs...
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post #23 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 08:03 AM - Thread Starter
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Only the second half of the chart is based on projections.
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post #24 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 08:04 AM
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The obvious mistakes in the chart doesn't lend it credibility.
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post #25 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 08:06 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joe-Six-Pack View Post

that charts show no growth for HD DVD at all. So consumers are not going to buy anymore HD DVDs or players.

Yes, that makes this is very helpful projection. Since HD DVD isn't going to sell more disks each month, then the attach rate for new players will have to drop. Oh and HD DVD players sales will be reversing course very soon here and start tanking. It really adds depth to the announcements of new players at CES and for my part is a very, very credible picture.

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post #26 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 08:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Issac Hunt View Post

The chart is of some interest since it show's Fox's intention to agressively market BD, even going so far as to use some slightly dubious predictions about future sales of HD DVD. However the key line of this article is this one: "Blu-ray sales performance surpassed HD-DVD for the first time the week of December 24 and did so by an impressive 20 per cent." This was from someone in the best possition to know the truth, and it is clearly not a future prediction up for interpretation.

They don't specify whether it was a one time spike, or whether it has maintained a lead, which would be interesting. I agree that it shows they are interested in aggressively marketing BD, and that means they are pretty committed to that format.
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post #27 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 08:15 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by boo View Post

The whole chart is a projection, it starts at 10/30/10, shows BR going over on 12/25/10 and shows no gains for HD DVD at all.

No. Read the text on the PR: "In fact, Blu-ray sales performance surpassed HD-DVD for the first time the week of December 24 and did so by an impressive 20 per cent." Which is exactly what appears for 12/24.

It's 2006 and 2007.

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post #28 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 08:15 AM
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Do you really think Fox would put out a simple chart with that kind of error? All you had to do before Christmas was go the HD section in any store and the truth was right there in front of. HD DVD cleaned out and BR full of movies.
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post #29 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 08:15 AM
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This is what I want to see:

The number of HD DVD and BD stand alone players sold in 2006
The number of HD DVD and BD movies sold in 2006
A comparison of Warner HD DVD compared to Warner BD titles sold in 2006
A comparison of Paramount HD DVD compared to Paramount BD titles sold in 2006

I do not care about weekly sales numbers nor do I want or expect to see a press release each time one format outsells another on a weekly basis. It is becoming worse than college football with these useless press releases and projections that will be revised at a later date.

The sad thing is that on the AVS Forum there are people who are so blinded by their support of a format that they will tout (as long as it is beneficial to their preferred format) anything that the studios and CE companies present as factual data.

If there is anything that needs to be added to the numbers above please do so. I am hopeful we can get these answers, but in reality I doubt these numbers will be presented to the consumers.
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post #30 of 162 Old 01-08-2007, 08:17 AM
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For those calling "foul": the HD DVD group's press release last night projected a factor of 40 growth for HD DVD in the year 2007.

Everyone should realize that these hockey-stick projections are all a bit suspect.

As to the principal factual claim, it seems very reasonable that Blu-ray sales may have overtaken HD DVD sales as suggested, based on all information available to the members of this forum.

But suppose you don't even believe that.

Take a look at the titles lists for both formats and ask yourself two questions:
1. Assuming you don't think Blu-ray sales have surpassed HD DVD sales, how long do you think it will take, given that release schedule?
2. Once Blu-ray sales do overtake HD DVD, what event(s) occur to reverse that trend?
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