Is Ultra HD Blu-ray Doomed? - Page 2 - AVS Forum | Home Theater Discussions And Reviews
View Poll Results: Is Ultra HD Blu-ray Doomed?
It's toast & sooner than you think 30 4.81%
It'll stick around for a while but it's doomed 146 23.40%
It'll keep being a niche option for major new releases, for years to come 332 53.21%
As more people buy 4K (and 8K) TVs UHD Blu-ray will make a comeback 116 18.59%
Voters: 624. You may not vote on this poll

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post #31 of 337 Old 02-22-2019, 12:24 PM
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I know enthusiasts like the members here don't make up a huge percentage of the marketplace, but I'm hoping discs stick around for a while. I buy the 4k discs whenever possible. I still redeem my digital codes so my wife can watch them in the bedroom without having to turn on anything complicated in her eyes. My streaming knowledge is weak, and I know that certain places (Amazon, Netflix...) offer 4k (somewhat compressed video, variable quality audio?) streaming, but I'd imagine the majority of the current generation's viewing content still comes from cable TV. Once HD quality video became more or less standard I doubt many cared that there were much better things available. I don't know about anyone else, but my cable company is still 1080i and not lossless sound. If cable sticks around as the primary source of content what decade will I see true 4k without buying a disc? The number of "cord reducers/cutters" are in between the purists who want uncompressed 4k video and Dolby Atmos quality sound and the cable TV watchers, but at least their numbers are growing. The younger generation stream most everything and watch on their tablets or phones, so the next generation certainly isn't pushing for absolute quality. I hoping discs stick around for at least another 5+ years, but it's probably no guarantee.
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post #32 of 337 Old 02-22-2019, 12:46 PM
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Until the entire US (and foreign markets too) reaches 100% ultra-fast broadband internet access, with 100% reliability, along with 100% streaming server reliability, along with zero monthly data caps (4K eats THOSE up quick), I don't think it will be doomed. That said, we're definitely seeing an active push by the industry toward streaming, but there's just too large of a market that can't get top quality streaming access. At least that was the case for me when I lived in rural locations 4K streaming but was a pipe dream. Now I live in the "big city" and my internet still likes to crap out conveniently every Friday night during peak useage. Thank goodness I rely on home stored media so it doesn't rain on MY parade any, but if I was a Netflix only kind of person, I'd be pissed. Also not too uncommon for me to see Hulu, Netflix, etc. servers crap out at the worst times with the "Whoops, something went wrong..." message.
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post #33 of 337 Old 02-22-2019, 01:33 PM
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Mark I don't see any link to this forum poll thread in your features article BTW.
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post #34 of 337 Old 02-22-2019, 01:35 PM - Thread Starter
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Mark I don't see any link to this forum poll thread in your features article BTW.
I appreciate the heads up on that, thank you.

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post #35 of 337 Old 02-22-2019, 01:41 PM
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All physical media is doomed. UHD will likely go away first because of the tiny install base. Consumers have very little reason to buy UHD: Native resolution doesn't matter to anyone (even if they might be able to appreciate an upscaled 4K picture), HDR is just "bright" to most, and trying to sell WCG to someone who's never changed picture settings on their display must be pretty damn tough. UHD is truly the solution to a problem that nobody has.

I think a lot of AVS regulars suffer from the delusion that we're representative of the general public. We're really not; this is a place for enthusiasts and there aren't that many of us.

I work in a large office environment and often get "you still use discs???" comments from passers when I'm carrying my Netflix returns to the mail room. Nobody - and I really mean nobody - I know or work with sees any reason to do anything other than stream.

There are only two groups of consumers who might be interested in buying UHDs; visitors to blu-ray.com and visitors to avsforum.com. Both are insignificant in size. Why should retailers carry UHDs?
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post #36 of 337 Old 02-22-2019, 01:59 PM
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I think ALL disc based content is doomed, much to my displeasure. I think that many consumers, more so the younger generation, just don't care about ownership anymore with things like movies and music. Admittedly not having to store hundreds or movies is a benefit, but to me I WANT the disc. It's mine, I can take it anywhere and play it, as almost any house with a tv will have a game console or blu ray player, less so UHD players. But I buy many movies on UHD, not everything but it's about 50/50. I also have a collection of close to 2000 movies as well on multiple bookcases. I plan on still buying them until they just aren't sold anymore. One other thing at least when it comes to 8K, disc is going to be the ONLY option to see it in its best quality streaming has a long way to go to get to close to 8k streaming being possible. Heck I have a 300mbps internet connection and even the 8k videos on youtube take a good bit of time to download far enough to watch.
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post #37 of 337 Old 02-22-2019, 03:50 PM
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For pre-digital motion picture film, not much is gained by scanning beyond 4K. The advantage of 8K television is reducing pixel visibility at larger screen sizes.

I see a long future for UHD Blu-ray collecting.
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post #38 of 337 Old 02-22-2019, 04:38 PM
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If streaming companies keep shutting down or splitting a part and charging fees and so on, it will get to the point where people wont trust it and we will certainly see a comeback but I think for the most part it will be a niche area for those looking for the best audio/video experience.
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post #39 of 337 Old 02-22-2019, 04:44 PM
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4K Blu-ray ain't going anywhere anytime soon. In fact I think DVD should just go the way of VHS and just be discontinued to focus only on Blu-ray and 4K Blu-ray. I'll keep supporting the format as much as I can, especially since the video & audio quality instantly blows Vudu and Netflix out of the water.

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post #40 of 337 Old 02-22-2019, 04:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted99 View Post
I think Oppo, and Samsung, are leaving the 4K disc business because they see that disc players have become a commodity item.
I agree that streaming is the future. Houston now has 5G stationary from Verizon, and one of my neighbors has it. I would, too, except my location can't get a signal. Yet. As soon as it can, I'll get it. His measured, in home, wi fi speed is 5X the speed of his former "highest available" Comcast service. That is how 8K will be distributed. .
I agree that 5G has a lot of potential...but in no way does Houston have 5G...only a very small handful of locations in Houston( almost no one in Houston has 5G access--really small numbers compared to total). Today, rolling out 5G at its basics still requires laying fiber before it delivers to its tower. There is a long way to go, a lot of construction and a lot of barriers to implementation. I do think 5G is going to unlock some interesting VR experiences and look forward to it....but it will be many years....unless I move to an area specifically because it has 5G.
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post #41 of 337 Old 02-22-2019, 05:07 PM
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For me, I'll buy discs when they go on sale, or if I think a series is going to leave Netflix, like Futurama (although that's only DVD). My bandwidth is finite, and the selection of shows/movies on streaming services can only do so much.



Other problems though, are that I'm pretty happy with my Bluray discs, my Sony X800 can upscale those and DVDs well, but also the price and selection of titles, but a lot of the movies/series I want I already have on DVD/Bluray too. It's a tough sell for me, when I could buy Blade Runner 2049 for like $6 on BR, and the UHD version was like $20 or so. I can get BR for less than $10 all day long now, although it didn't start out that way, but UHD discs are still in that infancy stage...also I think the selection of current UHD titles is weak. Cool if you like blockbusters, but since that's not really my thing either, it's slim pickings.



I own Wonder Woman, and Trainspotting 2 (of all things). I either already own the BR, or don't find it worth the increased cost.
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post #42 of 337 Old 02-22-2019, 05:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Toknow****a View Post
They can kill it but the reality is that digital sell through is not making up for lost disc sales. Streaming is becoming synonomous with subscription services. I have a large number of digital titles redeemed from disc purchases because of the convenience factor. I'd never pay that much for a digital-only title with less than stellar quality. Out of over 200 digital titles I can count on one hand the number of titles I've bought in digital only.

Go ahead! Kill the disc market. It won't strengthen your streaming revenue.
Go tell the music industry that. Over 50% of their revenue comes from subscription services.
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post #43 of 337 Old 02-22-2019, 05:42 PM
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Go tell the music industry that. Over 50% of their revenue comes from subscription services.
You're not actually contradicting him. It makes up over 50% of current revenue but that's because revenue has tanked from its peak around the year 2000 which is also when compact disc revenue peaked. As physical media sales dropped off, streaming sales did not compensate for the losses. Total revenue is now about half what it was then and streaming revenue is the majority of that.
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post #44 of 337 Old 02-22-2019, 05:45 PM
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You're not actually contradicting him. It makes up over 50% of current revenue but that's because revenue has tanked from its peak around the year 2000 which is also when compact disc revenue peaked. As physical media sales dropped off, streaming sales did not compensate for the losses. Total revenue is now about half what it was then and streaming revenue is the majority of that.
I think the news will happen in 5 years or less when a major studio decides to only release their content digitally/streaming only and to not release the title on physical format at all. It has already happened with gaming, music, and books. Not a major content studio but the minor players are already there. There's plenty of TV shows only available online only without a physical release.
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post #45 of 337 Old 02-22-2019, 05:51 PM
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I would like to think that the end of physical discs will come when streaming services are capable of delivering 4K BluRay quality w/lossless audio. Curious to know if and when you think that will happen?

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post #46 of 337 Old 02-22-2019, 06:01 PM
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Originally Posted by vsorgi View Post
I would like to think that the end of physical discs will come when streaming services are capable of delivering 4K BluRay quality w/lossless audio. Curious to know if and when you think that will happen?
We live in a world of "good enough" so if/when physical media dies I'm not hopeful that we'll have a streaming option of similar quality.
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post #47 of 337 Old 02-22-2019, 06:21 PM
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Will always prefer to buy UHD Blu-rays as opposed to the digital version..I'm a dork when it come to collecting these movies..i use the dvd profiler app and scan any purchase I make into that app...I just like owning the physical copy..like seeing it in my collection....also do like that I can add that same movie, most of the time, into my iTunes collection with the digital copy from the UHD purchase...They still make DVDS for crying out loud so I don't see this fairly new format leaving anytime soon
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post #48 of 337 Old 02-22-2019, 06:26 PM
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I'll continue to buy discs for as long as they're available. I think they'll continue to exist as a niche format for enthusiasts. I will admit that 4K streaming looks good...really good, but the uncertainty/instability of the existence of these digital lockers and streaming services doesn't give me the confidence to spend almost as much as a disc for a digital file.

But let's be honest...the UHD physical media market is driven pretty much entirely by enthusiasts, and in that regard Samsung players aren't a huge loss. It's not like UHD nuts were really flocking to buy Samsung players in the first place.

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post #49 of 337 Old 02-22-2019, 06:34 PM
 
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It's not doomed in my home. My 20 mbps internet with 200 gb data cap tells me i will use the discs as my primary source.
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post #50 of 337 Old 02-22-2019, 07:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by liffie420 View Post
I think ALL disc based content is doomed, much to my displeasure. I think that many consumers, more so the younger generation, just don't care about ownership anymore with things like movies and music. Admittedly not having to store hundreds or movies is a benefit, but to me I WANT the disc. It's mine, I can take it anywhere and play it, as almost any house with a tv will have a game console or blu ray player, less so UHD players. But I buy many movies on UHD, not everything but it's about 50/50. I also have a collection of close to 2000 movies as well on multiple bookcases. I plan on still buying them until they just aren't sold anymore. One other thing at least when it comes to 8K, disc is going to be the ONLY option to see it in its best quality streaming has a long way to go to get to close to 8k streaming being possible. Heck I have a 300mbps internet connection and even the 8k videos on youtube take a good bit of time to download far enough to watch.
Owners vs. renters are have always been the minority, even back in the VHS era when movies came down in price there were a ton of renters vs. owners. DVD again more renters than owners. Owners have always been the minority. Videophiles/Audiophiles have always been a minority. UHD discs were always going to be a niche market, because it wasn't going to be a renters market. Streaming is just the latest version of rental.

Burn in Hell renters

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post #51 of 337 Old 02-22-2019, 08:11 PM
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I think one of the biggest issues with discs is we are in the golden age of TV right now and streaming TV shows just beats the snot out of discs as far as convince. No need to change discs to binge episodes or change to different shows, it keeps track of where you are in a series and even in an episode, and shows are just much more readily available on streaming services compare to discs.

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post #52 of 337 Old 02-22-2019, 08:16 PM
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Renters used to rent physical media, but today the renters are streaming...
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post #53 of 337 Old 02-22-2019, 08:18 PM
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I don't have a 4K TV yet but I have 52 4K Blu-ray's, I am waiting my 1080p Samsung is still going strong. I am waiting for the latest Panasonic TV's as they are going to have HDR 10, HDR 10+ and Dolby Vision so all my bases will be covered.

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post #54 of 337 Old 02-22-2019, 09:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blurule View Post
I don't have a 4K TV yet but I have 52 4K Blu-ray's, I am waiting my 1080p Samsung is still going strong. I am waiting for the latest Panasonic TV's as they are going to have HDR 10, HDR 10+ and Dolby Vision so all my bases will be covered.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-1uXQ_9aAzc&t=54s
I also have 52 UHD BDs. I purchased my first UHD disk in 2016-03-04, The Martian. I bought one of the last OPPO 205s spring 2018 and a UHD TV Nov 2018. I enjoyed the 1080 version included with the UHD for about 2 1/2 years.

Good luck with your upgrade process. I truly appreciate the added quality of a disk and until that quality can be had via streaming or download I'll be renting and purchasing disks for my movie viewing. I'd give UHD...disks in general 10 years or so. Maybe longer unless high speed internet doesn't get rolled out any faster than it is now.

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post #55 of 337 Old 02-22-2019, 10:03 PM
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I will say this about streaming. I have Cox 100mbs service and it buffers unless I watch at 2am. Their excuse is high demand of the network and slowdowns are covered in their terms of service. So I subscribe when I am home often and will be online often. When I know I have a busy month ahead I cancel and tell them what crap they are every time. This situation will not change until we get competition. That will never happen so I am getting physical media whenever, however I can.
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post #56 of 337 Old 02-22-2019, 11:40 PM
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"Good enough" streaming/downloading killed audio and we're stuck with derp quality as a standard because you all beat each other to death over Hi-Res or MQA or whatever. Audiophiles lost the ability to lead by being up their own asses.

Physical video media is over too. It's done, and this is why we should embrace tech like QLED and AI to advance our experiences going forward.

Next up, console gaming. Buh...
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post #57 of 337 Old 02-23-2019, 03:25 AM
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The studios aren't deciding to keep on with UHD-BD or quit depending on if they want it or not. What actually matters is if they can sell the discs and for that particular reason the future of UHD-BD and physical media in general are in the hands of consumers.


Think about it: Most people today get their music through iTunes, Spotify, Tidal or something like that. You're most likely unable to find CDs in your local stores (unless dedicated shops of course) but finding new albums on CD isn't actually too difficult when you look around online. Many modern albums that are of interest can still be found with no real difficulty and the basic reason for that is because there are supposedly people buyimg them. Fewer than 25 years ago for sure but it's still there for anyone who wants it. And since the patent for CDs expired back in 2002 there's presumably more room for a profit if still limited.


So if you really want UHD-BD to keep on, take a look at how you watch movies and see what you can do about it. If everyone keeps on buying their films on iTunes then no wonder UHD-BD is doomed.


I'm personally only buying films on physical media as I don't want to be completely dependent on my internet connection when I'm watching movies and have to deal with DRM. Plus I'm also a sucker for optical discs in general, so for me that's half of the fun. I don't have a 4K display (I'm actually only using CRTs for movies and gaming) but still buy UHD-BDs occasionally. My main issue with UHD-BD is the selection of films however, as I find it difficult to get my hands on other films than just blockbusters or mainstream classics. Blu-Ray was like that too back in 2009 so I can't say I'm surprised nor blaming anyone for it. I still buy plenty of BDs. The selection is really great if you start looking beyond the major studios.



One thing I do believe will be drastically different in the future however is the lack of reprints. More and more films will probably be released in limited runs with no interest from the studios to make more copies when they are out of stock everywhere. Guess it'll be a scalpers market...
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post #58 of 337 Old 02-23-2019, 06:02 AM
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Cool Well my feeling about it appears to be with the majority of others

I feel it will be around for some time to come but will eventually die off.

I remember when DVD's first hit the market many years ago and a (cheap) player was easily north of $400. But it was the new "Next Big Thing" and it really did transform the media watching format for so many years. Fast forward not many years at all and a DVD player could be had for $29.00 easily or less. Obviously not top of the the line but functional. The added benefit for the DVD player and the timing of it coincided very well with the CD hey day as well. It could do both!!

Then Blu-Ray came out and it was a very significant increase in resolution, color fidelity, and it was full HD from the disc to the screen uncompressed true HD beauty. And the uncompressed audio was finally able to be riding on those lovely Blu-Rays and there was definitely a difference there as well. So Blu-Ray was definitely an improvement in many ways. Just like the DVD players when Blu-Ray first came out (Like all other new format items) the cost was very high for the players. Now they can be had on the cheap. Lets not forget however that along with the physical media ability of these players bundled/packaged within them came the streaming apps. This was one of the initial hooks into the streaming market. And then the video game consoles had it as well and then the new "Smart TV's" had the streaming apps as well. Also remember the transition form folks with DVD players to Blu-Ray was slow as well. In all reality we have to keep in mind that even today most all cable, and Dish style telecasts are still in 720P, 1080i, or possibly 1080P, in 2019. Notice I am not saying ALL broadcasting shares these limitations. You will always have the early adopters but the majority of folks lagged in making the switch. When they did there were those streaming apps inside.

All this being said I am not mentioning the whole Blu-Ray HDDVD format war that started when the format started taking off.

Fast forward to today and the next big thing which is the basis of the discussion 4K Ultra HD players. Along with this new format we consumers have the Dolby Vision, HDR10, HDR10+, HLG, need I go on? What does my TV support? It does this, but not that. Will my player do this? Does my receiver support this HDR10+, HDR10, HLG,............................................Th e manufacturer says "Maybe" in a future firmware date............................Well my 4K player manufacturer said initially maybe in a firmware update but now they are not going to do it with this player. But...................... their version II of this player will do it so I guess I need to buy a new one............... if I want that feature. They (manufacturers) don't do themselves any favors now do they? The typical consumer has no idea about all this stuff and the folks in the stores don't know either much of the time. When most consumers start to look into this there head starts to spin. "Why does this have to be so confusing?" I have had many people ask me. Due to this and the sheer convenience of streaming apps (and the fact that pretty much any device has streaming apps) they just say "Hey I could just watch this on Netflix, Amazon Prime, Vudu, Hulu"............................................. ...................



So if the disc format dies who's fault is it really I ask? No matter how much research you do how hard is it today to buy something that will do pretty much everything? And then that target is always moving isn't it? So you can try to keep up with every new format/feature, or folks can just stream something. What do you think the masses are going to choose?

While we are discussing this today we now have manufacturers starting to pump out 8K TV's.............................

So we are nowhere near having the current 4K content anywhere near sorted and the manufacturers are already starting to chase another higher resolution format.

I love the audio/video industry and the joy it can bring us but with so many ever changing/shifting formats and variables it just gets more cloudy every day as the manufacturers make a mess and then leave it to go chase another newer format.

Not being negative and I really did not mean for this post to go this long but those are my thoughts.

If it sounds and looks good, it sounds and looks good!!

Last edited by Wafflebird; 02-23-2019 at 07:12 AM.
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post #59 of 337 Old 02-23-2019, 06:58 AM
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I am 100% confident that the shiny discs will "eventually" no longer be available (for both CDs and movies). When either the streaming companies come up with better compression algorithms and/or there is more universal access to high speed internet service, (i.e. streaming quality = shiny disc quality), there would be no reason to provide shiny discs. FWIW, I have quit purchasing CDs and use Roon/Qobuz for listening to music (along with my ripped library).

My guess is that shiny discs will be gone in less than 10 years (so says "Carnack")

And for those who want to "own" the movie (I would fall into that category), some smart company (besides Kaleidescape) will provide an approved method for just downloading the entire movie to store on your in-home server. I exclude Kaleidescape because their cost of entry and disc purchase price are too high for anyone but the very highest income earners (or addicts) and their financial strength is questionable (since they folded once already). The company that probably has the financial where-with-all to pull this off AND the connections to the movie industry would be Apple. But who knows. Could be Amazon as well!! Or Google/YouTube. Or ......

Last edited by audioguy; 02-23-2019 at 07:01 AM.
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post #60 of 337 Old 02-23-2019, 07:26 AM
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Originally Posted by Rysa4 View Post
I agree that 5G has a lot of potential...but in no way does Houston have 5G...only a very small handful of locations in Houston( almost no one in Houston has 5G access--really small numbers compared to total). Today, rolling out 5G at its basics still requires laying fiber before it delivers to its tower. There is a long way to go, a lot of construction and a lot of barriers to implementation. I do think 5G is going to unlock some interesting VR experiences and look forward to it....but it will be many years....unless I move to an area specifically because it has 5G.
Of course, what you say is true. Houston is one of the 5 cities where Verizon has rolled out 5G Home service. Move to the North side of my high rise in the Museum district and you'll have 5G. I've had a lot of discussions with the the Verizon marketing guy doing 5G and learned:
1) Verizon is out in front because they used the 5G stationary standard to deploy 5G Home in Houston, early; to test the market and get some experience. They will be replacing all the current customer boxes and mini-cells later this year with boxes using the 5G mobile standard, now that it's been finalized and combined 4G/5G chips are available. Because of this, they have not wanted to have a "lot" of 5G home customers. Incidentally, Verizon is requiring 5G home customer locations to have a good 4G signal, as well; because if 5G has a problem, the service reverts to 4G, same as mobile phones will do.
2) All the current Verizon 5G towers in Houston are served by Verizon-owned fiber-optic. That's the biggest constraint on availability of 5G tower construction.
3) When 5G mobile rolls out late this year and big time next year Verizon MUST put up a lot more towers to get coverage. They will need to do this to serve the mobile cell phones. The 5G home (stationary) service is going to use the same towers as 5G mobile and be switched over to receivers using the 5G mobile standard.

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