Is Ultra HD Blu-ray Doomed? - Page 3 - AVS Forum | Home Theater Discussions And Reviews
View Poll Results: Is Ultra HD Blu-ray Doomed?
It's toast & sooner than you think 30 4.81%
It'll stick around for a while but it's doomed 146 23.40%
It'll keep being a niche option for major new releases, for years to come 332 53.21%
As more people buy 4K (and 8K) TVs UHD Blu-ray will make a comeback 116 18.59%
Voters: 624. You may not vote on this poll

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post #61 of 340 Old 02-23-2019, 10:09 AM
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Dooooomed i tell you doooomed!
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post #62 of 340 Old 02-23-2019, 10:20 AM
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What makes them doomed is that they're $25+ per disc upon release.

They probably cost $1 in material to produce.

Very few of us are willing to pay that, and they're hard to find to rent.

The industry is digging its own grave.

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post #63 of 340 Old 02-23-2019, 10:21 AM
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I think it's doomed.

I hope to buy a lot of them from garage sales and dime stores in the future.

I wonder how many titles will be the final count. I think under a thousand but who knows.

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post #64 of 340 Old 02-23-2019, 11:03 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Erod View Post
What makes them doomed is that they're $25+ per disc upon release.

They probably cost $1 in material to produce.

Very few of us are willing to pay that, and they're hard to find to rent.

The industry is digging its own grave.
Wasn’t Blu-ray’s and later 3D Blu-ray’s also $25 per disc upon release? The pricing really hasn’t changed. If you been around you would have found a awful lot of DVD releases were priced about the same when they were dominant. The studios provide different paths for a consumer to view, rent, possibly own media if you want the best presentation, Why is one doomed?
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post #65 of 340 Old 02-23-2019, 11:16 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Erod View Post
What makes them doomed is that they're $25+ per disc upon release.

They probably cost $1 in material to produce.

Very few of us are willing to pay that, and they're hard to find to rent.

The industry is digging its own grave.
Wasn’t Blu-ray’s and later 3D Blu-ray’s also $25 per disc upon release? The pricing really hasn’t changed. If you been around you would have found a awful lot of DVD releases were priced about the same when they were dominant. The studios provide different paths for a consumer to view, rent, possibly own media if you want the best presentation, Why is one doomed?
Because when blu ray came out, streaming was in it's infantile stage and the world was 2G.

And TVs didn't have Netflix apps installed in their firmware.

Lots of reasons.

The A/V receiver business is also in danger. Sound bars are the devil.
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post #66 of 340 Old 02-23-2019, 11:17 AM
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I hope it will be replaced with a less costly version of the Kaleidescape system where we can download bit perfect copies to our own servers and play them using regular streaming devices.

Of course if we could stream at that quality straight from the providers we don't need the download option. I can't see that happen in a very long time as the end to end path has to be gigabit or better.
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post #67 of 340 Old 02-23-2019, 12:22 PM
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Originally Posted by sadsushi View Post
Will always prefer to buy UHD Blu-rays as opposed to the digital version..I'm a dork when it come to collecting these movies..i use the dvd profiler app and scan any purchase I make into that app...I just like owning the physical copy..like seeing it in my collection....also do like that I can add that same movie, most of the time, into my iTunes collection with the digital copy from the UHD purchase...They still make DVDS for crying out loud so I don't see this fairly new format leaving anytime soon
DVDs and cockroaches will "turn out the lights" when Earth takes its last gasp. I can do without cockroaches. DVDs don't get enough love from esteemed critics.

In order to be meaningful commerce, UHD Blu-ray will need reliable players that are priced at $125 tops, and discs $15 tops.

We'll see movie theaters closing at a quicker pace.

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post #68 of 340 Old 02-23-2019, 05:15 PM
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Streaming IS probably going to kill physical media, but it will be many years before we are streaming at the quality of a current UHD disc, probably after the next level of compression is invented and source media is 8k, just as current streams of 4k uhd are just about as good of quality as 1080p off a spinning disc, with the only edge going to a wider color gamut. Even if various companies could deliver the bandwidth, they still aren't going to kick out an h.265 at 35-50mbps, as well as full Atmos/truehd audio. And if they did, even my fiber optic gigabit internet pipe would fail to consistently deliver that stream. Sadly, it seems like we keep losing quality as we move "forward".. And it doesn't matter to the next generation because they all watch the content on their 6" screens a few inches from their eyeballs.

By the time we have a regular flow of "8k" media, it will ALL be delivered via a compressed stream, and while everyone will think it is so great (on their 65" tv's or tablets and phones a few inches from their faces), the fact is it will be worse overall than a UHD disc. And only those of us fortunate enough to have truly big screens in our homes with projectors that can play the content will be left out in the cold, hanging on to what UHD media we managed to collect while it was still abundant...

Of course, in the shorter term, UHD's will continue to grow, and as we have seen in the last year, a significant number of old titles will get released in UHD, some even actually properly upscaled and improved.

As for cost of a 4k UHD disc, it is usually 2-3 dollars more than the blu ray, maybe 5 at most, and when you think about the cost of going to a movie, it is a good deal. Take your wife and kids to a premium venue, first release movie, and you will be dropping $100. $20-25 is cheap in comparison. Heck, even a date night at a public theater will cost you at least as much as a UHD disc. What makes it expensive is when you compare it to Netflix.

And the only difference I see at WalMart is the bluray "bargain bin" is now $8. They still have just as many blurays and 4k UHD's as they did 2 years ago, if not more.

Here's the line that will make me sound like a pretentious ass: The fact is, if you think streamed 4k UHD is "as good" as a UHD disc, you don't have a good enough theater to see the difference, and should probably stick to streaming. Sorry, I had to say it.
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post #69 of 340 Old 02-23-2019, 05:54 PM
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I have become the 60+ year old Luddite who can't stop technology moving forward, but will slow it down more than it'd like.


Honestly, I own quite a few 4K discs, but on my Oled and on my Projection system (Chadb calibrated), 1080P Bluray looks fantastic more often than not. If a Redbox Bluray rental has Dolby Atmos on it, I usually am rest assured to have quite the good experience.


If I like the rental enough for multiple views, I'll buy the 4K disc. Some must have titles I'll go straight for the 4K disc. Currently, with the capabilites of streaming, I have little to no interest in it.



Anyone else notice if you hit the shift key accidently when typing 4K you get $K? Kind of fitting in a Freudian kind of way.
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post #70 of 340 Old 02-23-2019, 06:21 PM
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I think the news will happen in 5 years or less when a major studio decides to only release their content digitally/streaming only and to not release the title on physical format at all. It has already happened with gaming, music, and books. Not a major content studio but the minor players are already there. There's plenty of TV shows only available online only without a physical release.
Maybe it's already happening. I've noticed quite a few recent releases that have rated quite well are only being released on DVD. Only rational for this is that they are hoping to cash in on the pay to stream revenue. Obviously they think this will be higher than the blu ray or 4K profits. Studios think streaming will be their cash cow.
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post #71 of 340 Old 02-23-2019, 06:28 PM
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Cheap always wins with the public, when streaming isn't cheap anymore...They won't bite. Cheap has always been the enemy of good. If it isn't cheap enough people just go without it.
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post #72 of 340 Old 02-23-2019, 07:19 PM
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Now and then I go over my hundreds of DVDs and Blu-rays, and I'm surprised that I'm not really moved to replay them, even the best. Those of you who finally got a house with a pool you never use know what I mean. But I'll keep on buying discs, because knowing, short of going to a good movie theater, I could be watching a better image ruins the experience for me. Though I still only have HD, I bought an OPPO UHD while I could and look forward to getting last TV I'll ever own, a Z9G, and the thought of having to settle for streaming is disgusting.
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post #73 of 340 Old 02-23-2019, 07:30 PM - Thread Starter
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Now and then I go over my hundreds of DVDs and Blu-rays, and I'm surprised that I'm not really moved to replay them, even the best. Those of you who finally got a house with a pool you never use know what I mean. But I'll keep on buying discs, because knowing, short of going to a good movie theater, I could be watching a better image ruins the experience for me. Though I still only have HD, I bought an OPPO UHD while I could and look forward to getting last TV I'll ever own, a Z9G, and the thought of having to settle for streaming is disgusting.
I used to love watching movies more than once, now that almost never happens. I fear it's an age-related disease! It's a little hard to believe that there are some movies I've watched dozens of times.
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post #74 of 340 Old 02-23-2019, 07:44 PM
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According to https://www.whathifi.com/news/growin...-blu-ray-spend, there are 330 UHD BD titles as of Jan 3 2019. That's pretty good for a niche market and includes quite a few older releases.
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post #75 of 340 Old 02-23-2019, 09:30 PM
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I've read a disc mastered in 4K is significantly more expensive than a disc mastered in 2K. Maybe someone could speak to that, and that most theaters are still presenting in 2K.
It’s not mastering the disk in 4K that’s expensive, it’s actually rendering all the special effects and CGI that’s the expensive part. I believe the CGI even in the marvel movies have all been rendered at 2K resolution then upscaled using Ai algorithms to 4K res, since doing that is MUCH faster and gives you 90% the same thing.

You can check this out yourself if you install Blender (it’s open source, free and they use it in most CGI production workflows to include the Marvel movies). Create a basic animated scene then render an image or video clip at 4K vs 2K.

Next, use a trial of Topaz Ai Upscale and upsize the 2K image to 4K. It might be slower on a basic scene than rendering, but can assure you it’s faster to upscale when you are dealing with complex scenes, high Rez textures, tessalation, path tracing etc
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post #76 of 340 Old 02-23-2019, 10:16 PM
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I used to love watching movies more than once, now that almost never happens. I fear it's an age-related disease! It's a little hard to believe that there are some movies I've watched dozens of times.
Hey, I’m not ashamed to say I’ll see Forbidden Planet dozens of times before I clock out. Anyway, aren’t 4K and upscale 8K reasons enough to see a favorite yet again, though not sure how Leslie Nielsen’s and Anne Francis’ pancake would look in UHD. Which begs the question of whether Hollywood is that happy to budget the production values that can stand the “scrutiny” of UHD and beyond.

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post #77 of 340 Old 02-24-2019, 02:11 AM
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Originally Posted by Mashie Saldana View Post
I hope it will be replaced with a less costly version of the Kaleidescape system where we can download bit perfect copies to our own servers and play them using regular streaming devices.

Of course if we could stream at that quality straight from the providers we don't need the download option. I can't see that happen in a very long time as the end to end path has to be gigabit or better.
This is already what I have, it's called ATV4K and I love it.

When you say bit perfect what is that supposed to mean? ... Same as a disc? what type of disc CD? VCD? DVD? Blu Ray? UHD Blu Ray?

Any video disc has compressed video so just because something was on a disc it has to be remastered exactly like that to be bit perfect? ... Think it through it makes no sense.

Things change. What if we demanded everything be exactly like a laserdisc (barf) or a Blu Ray? Those formats exist but there is already something better. There is no arbitrary format that we need or want to define as the final standard.

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post #78 of 340 Old 02-24-2019, 02:19 AM - Thread Starter
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This is already what I have, it's called ATV4K.

When you say bit perfect what is that supposed to mean? ... I have iTunes 4K (Dolby Vision, Dolby Atmos) movies with no bad bits. A SACD isn't bit perfect to a CD. a Blu Ray isn't bit perfect to a DVD or (egads laserdisc.)

I think a lot of people would say it has to be the exact same as the disc but what disc? An iTunes 4K title looks and sounds better than a 1080p Blu Ray so we woudn't want that disc.

Mastered for iTunes is really a thing. For now a UHD Blu Ray disc has room for less compression in AV but when the disc goes away that becomes irrelevant.

I'm fairly sure Kaliedscape is also doomed and will be gone in short order. If the discs dry up and new material keeps coming then what standard defines bit perfect?

-Brian
Hard to see what purpose it serves given the quality of what's instantly available to stream now. Having to wait for a download to start watching? That alone is quite an anachronism.

Once the audio of UHD streams is upgraded to take advantage of eARC it'll be slim pickings for K, especially if iTunes starts showing up in TV apps lists. It's hard to imagine, going forward, that Internet bandwidth would be an issue for somebody with enough disposable income to afford buying into a Kaleidescape system.
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post #79 of 340 Old 02-24-2019, 02:22 AM
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Originally Posted by Brian Hampton View Post
This is already what I have, it's called ATV4K.

When you say bit perfect what is that supposed to mean? ... I have iTunes 4K (Dolby Vision, Dolby Atmos) movies with no bad bits. A SACD isn't bit perfect to a CD. a Blu Ray isn't bit perfect to a DVD or (egads laserdisc.)

I think a lot of people would say it has to be the exact same as the disc but what disc? An iTunes 4K title looks and sounds better than a 1080p Blu Ray so we woudn't want that disc.

Mastered for iTunes is really a thing. For now a UHD Blu Ray disc has room for less compression in AV but when the disc goes away that becomes irrelevant.

I'm fairly sure Kaliedscape is also doomed and will be gone in short order. If the discs dry up and new material keeps coming then what standard defines bit perfect?

-Brian
Bit perfect = untouched copy from the UHD disk like you get when you rip them to your server. I just want to bypass the ripping bit and just legally download the contents directly to my server. Anything on the ATV is compressed by iTunes for streaming so unless you are watching locally stored rips you will have a reduced quality experience. That said it doesn't mean it will be a bad experience though as a lot of people are happy with streaming.
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post #80 of 340 Old 02-24-2019, 02:31 AM
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I see what you mean and I understand.

What if CD or Blu Ray defined bit perfect? ... But then you could download high res audio and 4K video?

I do have my Blu Rays ripped to a server. But, I'm thrilled when I can replace any title that I like with an iTunes 4K version. (often for $4.99 or less)

UHD Blu Ray may be the best possible way to watch a movie right now. But, I did a back and forth between Infinity War using my Sony X700 and ATV4K and I didn't see or hear a difference. (I had to use Vudu to view the 4K version due to a little problem between Apple and Disney) I know the disc has less compression but if the disc didn't exist that standard wouldn't be a standard... and really it's not anyway. Things do change.



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post #81 of 340 Old 02-24-2019, 02:46 AM
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I am an early adapter and I had a 4k TV and a 4k player two years ago. I bought about a dozen 4k discs. They don't look any better than 1080 upconverted so I stopped buying the discs. No need to waste money on PQ I cannot see.

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post #82 of 340 Old 02-24-2019, 03:53 AM
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I am an early adapter and I had a 4k TV and a 4k player two years ago. I bought about a dozen 4k discs. They don't look any better than 1080 upconverted so I stopped buying the discs. No need to waste money on PQ I cannot see.
For video I notice the difference most in peoples faces/skin, the UHD version looks much more natural, secondarily I'd say gradients look much smoother, thirdly I'd say shadow detail color really looks much better (the ability to tell subtle differences in black texture (dark grey, darker grey, even darker grey) and dark shades of a similar color).

From a sound standpoint it's hard to say, most 1080 BDs have a really good audio track and my system really can't take advantage of the Atmos track, but compared to streaming I'll take a high quality BD track please.

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post #83 of 340 Old 02-24-2019, 04:38 AM
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Originally Posted by Brian Hampton View Post
I see what you mean and I understand.

What if CD or Blu Ray defined bit perfect? ... But then you could download high res audio and 4K video?

I do have my Blu Rays ripped to a server. But, I'm thrilled when I can replace any title that I like with an iTunes 4K version. (often for $4.99 or less)

UHD Blu Ray may be the best possible way to watch a movie right now. But, I did a back and forth between Infinity War using my Sony X700 and ATV4K and I didn't see or hear a difference. (I had to use Vudu to view the 4K version due to a little problem between Apple and Disney) I know the disc has less compression but if the disc didn't exist that standard wouldn't be a standard... and really it's not anyway. Things do change.



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I'm happy as long as the file I get to use is the best possible. In this case unless we are talking the ~500GB DCi images used for Cinema the UHD BD content will do fine.

Now if content is limited in a particular format we simply have to live with it. And if the studios insist on reducing the quality by doing harder compression on all available media it's not much we can do. Just look at how Disney are messing up Dolby Atmos now with locking everything down to 7.1.4 in their releases in the name of saving future streaming bandwidth.
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post #84 of 340 Old 02-24-2019, 05:39 AM
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When Streaming matches true physical media quality then it will be dead for sure.


I don't know why 'Ultra-premium' programmes aren't available already.


Streamed 1080p = 5Mb/s | Streamed 4K = 15Mb/s
Physical 1080p = 40Mb/s | Physical 4K = 120Mb/s

To my eyes streamed 4K Looks better than blu-ray, despite less than half the bit-rate, and looks closer to "real 4K", although obviously at almost 10 times the bit-rate there is a visual step up to true 4K. If you watched 4K/DV series on Netflix and compared them to most 4K/HDR releases you'll see the difference is quite small.

Here in Norway, its almost impossible to have LESS than 30Mb/s internet speed. Most grandparents will have 50Mb/s plans and I as a broke student have chosen the second cheapest option available which is 100Mb/s. I could double that to 200Mb/s for an additional charge of 20 minutes worth of minimum wage per month.

Assuming the same math applies:

'RED-RAY' 8K discs will have 7680x4320p resolution and a bit-rate of 360Mb/s and should launch around 2026 (4K 2016, BR 2006, DVD 1996, LD 1985, VHS 1973).

By this time 8K streaming should (following the same formula as above) be 7680x4320p and have a bit rate of 45Mb/s (three times 4K, which is three times 2K)

... and streamed 8K should look better than a 4K/HDR disc.

Even my grandparents could stream 8K/HDR no problem and I could theoretically stream two 8K/HDR movies simultaneously on my TV and tablet without upgrading my internet, which will probably automatically change to 200Mb/s by ≈ 2025 anyway...

And does this mean 16K stream would require ≈ 150Mb/s bit rate, which is still achievable and affordable today.

I understand third-world countries don't have these options, but Japan, South-Korea, Sweden, Romania, Norway, Denmark etc should have 8K streaming options...
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post #85 of 340 Old 02-24-2019, 05:45 AM
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I am an early adapter and I had a 4k TV and a 4k player two years ago. I bought about a dozen 4k discs. They don't look any better than 1080 upconverted so I stopped buying the discs. No need to waste money on PQ I cannot see.
I had a 4K (non-HDR) projector about 4 years ago (Sony 600ES) and at that time, the improvement was very noticeable - but nothing compared to what images current high end projectors can now throw. But, 4K/HDR is WAY more about HDR than 4K. I would agree that a good 1080P image up-converted by a great projector to 4K is starting to get pretty close to a "real" 4K image. But the difference between HDR and SDR is not even close. Even my wife can see the difference. That said, I can easily compare the two images (1080P/SDR to 4K/HDR) and the difference are very, very obvious - at least on a large enough screen with a bright enough projector properly calibrated for HDR.

But, if you can't see (or can't hear) the differences I wouldn't buy discs either. And that time may EVENTUALLY come.

But I'm still hoping for a much cheaper version of a Kaleidescape system, though it sure won't come from Kaleidescape as they can't seem to bring themselves to focus on anything but the meg-rich (or mega-addicted) . Then, I have access to my movie collection even if my internet dies AND I can watch it as many times as I desire at no additional cost. And I do re-watch lots of my favorites. And having previously owned a Kaleidescape system, the download times were more than acceptable (maybe 90 minutes for the longest 4K/HDR movie). I sure can't get it that fast if I decide to buy it from Amazon.

As I said previously, if Apple cared about any of this, they could solve this issue overnight. But they don't and they won't.
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Last edited by audioguy; 02-24-2019 at 05:53 AM.
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post #86 of 340 Old 02-24-2019, 05:49 AM
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What makes them doomed is that they're $25+ per disc upon release.

They probably cost $1 in material to produce.

Very few of us are willing to pay that, and they're hard to find to rent.

The industry is digging its own grave.
This is the real issue, I won't pay over $20 for a UHD disk. I still have a plasma tv but I am at 10000 hours on it, am future-proofing and prefer physical media. I broke that rule once for a title I really wanted. My distrust of the lifetime of digital media subscriptions is already proving justified with the demise of Ultraviolet.

Greed and the lack of uniform format standards with all the proprietary technologies leaves a real sour taste in my mouth.

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post #87 of 340 Old 02-24-2019, 05:50 AM
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I think price has a lot to do with the eventual end of ultra HDTV blurays. When people see the box that says 4k for around $30, and then see the same movie on bluray for about $20, most people go for the cheaper option. I'm not set up for 4k just yet but I still buy the 4k versions of the movies I choose to buy. Luckily, my local library has started to bring in 4k movies so I won't have to buy much of anything unless I really want to.
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post #88 of 340 Old 02-24-2019, 05:57 AM
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Luckily, my local library has started to bring in 4k movies
Now that is sweet. Maybe eventually Redbox may do that.
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post #89 of 340 Old 02-24-2019, 09:03 AM
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Every time someone says that 4K streaming is comparable to 4K Blu-ray I wince. And then when I see a projector screen in their profile pic I'm just baffled.

4K streaming looks fine but can we all stop pretending that 4K streaming is beating physical media due to quality? This is a convenience and cost question and nothing else. Streaming music made audio disc obsolete but I don't see anyone seriously making the case that their spotify stream can compete with the doomed SACD or DVD audio formats. Human beings value convenience and accessibility just as much and in many cases more than they value quality. Especially when the convenient product is arguably CHEAPER.

4K streaming is not even playing on the same field as UHD blu-ray. in terms of picture quality. It's not even close. Yes, if you pause an image and take picture with your crappy phone camera on a static screen the stream might look just as good. If you are staring at a tiny 65" LCD from across the room I'm quite sure streaming will look just as good. Where blu-ray starts to make it's presence know is on large format displays. Whether that be high dollar 80 and 90" LCDs or with a front projector exceeding 100, 120, or even 160" in size. And where it really shines is when you stop comparing static images and actually watch video. Everytime someone has told me they believe UHD disc is obsolete I cue up Planet Earth II on my 4K Netflix and show them one of the couple of scenes involving flocks of birds or, my favorite, the scene with the racer snakes chasing the new born iguanas. I then show them that same scene on UHD blu-ray disc. It's not even close. These are dense scenes with lots of visual clutter and on the Netflix stream the bandwidth limitations cause these scenes to turn into a mess killing the immersion. On the disc-- ever detail is preserved and reproduced cleanly and with stunning clarity. No loss of immersion and the feeling of grandeur intended by the director is maintained.

Discs are doomed but for anyone who cares about quality this should not be something that is celebrated. Projection is a niche market compared to TV sales but when TVs are finally able to reach decent sizes I think people are going to miss discs.

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post #90 of 340 Old 02-24-2019, 09:07 AM
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UHD and other physical media are doomed. People have become fatter, lazier, and more complacent and as such, they want convenience over quality even if the higher quality option is the same or even cheaper but a little more inconvenient.

The studios and content producers themselves want physical media to die. Like digital video games, pressing disks, putting them in plastic slip cases, shipping them to retailers, and sharing revenue with those retailers ain’t cheap (especially when dealing Amazon who strongarms their suppliers). Also, with digital media, the content producers control the entire supply chain and don’t have to compete on price against others.

Lastly, the average fat lazy consumer doesn’t own anything when they buy a digital movie. They buy a temporary license to view which costs the studios next to nothing and can be taken away at any time (see: Ultraviolet). But most consumers don’t care because they will trade quality and ownership for convenience and instant gratification.

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