Is Ultra HD Blu-ray Doomed? - Page 6 - AVS Forum | Home Theater Discussions And Reviews
View Poll Results: Is Ultra HD Blu-ray Doomed?
It's toast & sooner than you think 25 4.30%
It'll stick around for a while but it's doomed 140 24.05%
It'll keep being a niche option for major new releases, for years to come 309 53.09%
As more people buy 4K (and 8K) TVs UHD Blu-ray will make a comeback 108 18.56%
Voters: 582. You may not vote on this poll

Forum Jump: 
 391Likes
Reply
 
Thread Tools
post #151 of 307 Old 02-26-2019, 06:32 AM
Advanced Member
 
BluesDaddy56's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Location: Metro Atlanta
Posts: 761
Mentioned: 16 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 536 Post(s)
Liked: 722
Streaming is for the masses who really don't care just like low bit rate MP3s are. Vinyl was "dead" but, gee, look at that, it's not. As the youth of today get older and have more disposable income, they'll look for ways to increase their entertainment experience. A sound bar won't continue to do, and neither will streaming content that, while being very good, is never going match the quality of uncompressed video and audio. Plus, unless the internet pipes significantly expand AND the tendency toward data caps reverses, the trend could very well change course.
AaronMK likes this.

Display: Vizio P55-E1l Pre-pro: Marantz 7703; Amps: Emotiva XPA-2 Gen 2, Emotiva XPA-3 Gen 1, H/K AVR 520 (direct in to amps); Sources: Sony UBP-X700; X-box 1 S; Technics 1200 Mk II; Win10 PC for digital; Phono Preamp: Emotiva XPS-1; Speakers - LR: Philharmonic BMR LR, Center: Emotiva Airmotiv C2; Surrounds: Wharfedale Reva-2; Rear Surrounds: Wharfedale Diamond 220; Atmos: TF - Monoprice Alpha 8; TR - BIC VI-38; Subwoofers: dual Rythmik L22s
BluesDaddy56 is offline  
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
post #152 of 307 Old 02-26-2019, 07:41 AM
AVS Forum Special Member
 
SeeMoreDigital's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Nott'm, UK
Posts: 3,297
Mentioned: 8 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 954 Post(s)
Liked: 699
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frank714 View Post
...Remember LaserDisc players? There were only three manufactures: Pioneer, Sony and Philips (Europe).
I loved my Pioneer DVL-919E. It played everything (back in the day). It was a sad day when it finally died

I SUPPORT 'FAIR USE'. MY MORALS PREVENT ME FROM HELPING ANYONE WHO OBTAINS COPYRIGHTED CONTENT ILLEGITIMATELY
TV: LG 65UH770V | DISC SPINNER: OPPO UDP-203 | STB: VU+ UNO 4K SE
AMPS: 2No Audiolab 8000A, 2No Audiolab M-PWR | SPEAKERS: 4No KEF 103.2, 3No Wharfedale Diamond 10
ISP: Virgin Media @ 100Mbps | NETWORK: 1000Mbps | NAS: DS212+
SeeMoreDigital is offline  
post #153 of 307 Old 02-26-2019, 08:37 AM
Advanced Member
 
JediFonger's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 857
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 160 Post(s)
Liked: 37
https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnarc.../#365aa6845390
^has this been fixed yet for xbox one s/x series?

i read the PDF and looks like 2016 older OLEDs will never be supported for DV

to the edge of eternity and depth of infinity, stupidity knows no bound.
JediFonger is offline  
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
post #154 of 307 Old 02-26-2019, 08:43 AM
Read the FAQ!
 
Bob Pariseau's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 35,182
Mentioned: 67 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 5760 Post(s)
Liked: 8229
Of COURSE UHD Blu-ray is doomed, so long as you set your time horizon out far enough.

But the idea streaming is going to kill it anytime soon runs up against one big problem, which is you can never rely on a streaming service -- or even an expensive collection of streaming services --- to include the titles you want to watch when you want to watch them.

The model for streaming is you get to watch what they've licensed to include in their catalog at the moment. And nothing lasts forever in those catalogs. Even folks who have "purchased" streaming content have discovered their "purchased" titles can go away. You've only actually paid for the right to view the title multiple times so long as it remains in the catalog. Licensing deals expire all the time, and streaming services are certainly not in the business of trying to offer anything close to the full range of titles available on discs (especially across all formats of discs).

On top of that, the quality of a stream will vary each time you choose to watch. This can happen even during a single viewing session, given network congestion and server loading. But more important, as time goes on the streaming services tend to retain only lower bit-rate versions of their titles, freeing up space for titles they are more eager to market. Thus that "acceptable" level of streaming quality you first had on a streaming title often degrades to "unacceptable" in just a period of months. This is even more of a problem if you forgot to view the title while it was new to the catalog.

Discs win because they don't go away, and the quality on repeat viewings is identical to the first viewing.
--Bob
pkeegan, pspoar, DvdClon and 8 others like this.

Need personal consultation/training? Or just curious about my Blog? Check out my web site!

Last edited by Bob Pariseau; 02-26-2019 at 08:49 AM.
Bob Pariseau is online now  
post #155 of 307 Old 02-26-2019, 08:59 AM
AVS Forum Special Member
 
tlogan6797's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Northern VA
Posts: 5,340
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 155 Post(s)
Liked: 166
Quote:
Originally Posted by Reflex-Arc View Post
Entertainment media if rife with examples of popular consumer opinion being in favor of convenience over quality. Like others here, I hope the format continues to be supported, but I'd be unsurprised to hear of its untimely demise. Until then, I'll just continue to vote with my wallet.

This goes WAY back. Anyone remember going to the $1 (or $2) movies? Maybe my age is showing....back in the day, after a film's (notice I said film's) first showing, a couple of weeks later it would make it's way to the bargain theaters. The prints would be scratchy, the bulb usually on it's last legs and the sound usually pretty bad, but hey, it was $1. As a kid, I could take my girlfriend to McD's for 2 50 cent Big Macs, 2 fries and 2 cokes for around $2 (so we didn't need the popcorn), go to the movie for $2 and still put a half tank of gas in my 1970 gas guzzler to cruise around in after, all for about $10.00. Even better, we could go to the drive in for $2, get the GIANT popcorn and sodas, watch the main feature on the giant multiple 4x8ft plywood painted sections of a screen, listen to it on the crappy little metal speaker hanging on the window and make out for the entire B movie.

Picture quality and Sound quality be DAMNED! I got what I wanted out of the cheap and low quality experience.

I'm just sayin'.




And I'm also sayin' that my tastes have changed over the years...in better PQ, SQ and women.

Although I haven't made the leap to UHD yet, I've at least upgraded my projector to a faux-4K, which I can see a huge difference in, even with the upscaled BR from my Oppo103D. I'm guessing that eventually I'll have no choice but to go to UHD.
SuperFist, RagtopFE and dfa973 like this.

Tom Logan
Everytime I reply the thread ends

Need motivation? Get LOGANED
The Yellow Dog Cinema and Draft House
tlogan6797 is offline  
post #156 of 307 Old 02-26-2019, 09:07 AM
AVS Forum Special Member
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: College Station, Texas
Posts: 2,036
Mentioned: 15 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 976 Post(s)
Liked: 524
Quote:
Originally Posted by Toknow****a View Post
I think this by design to make the market smaller. It seems like most new releases are streeting at $29.99 up from $27.99 that was typical since launch.
Well I think if you look back, new releases have hovered in around the same price window regardless of medium. Like when DVD and VHS were still sold side by side your new release on DVD was about $25 to $29 and the VHS was in the $15 to $19 range, roughly. Then Blu Ray came out and by this time VHS had gone and your new release DVD's were right around the $19 price point and the Blu Ray was about the $27 $29 price range. Now you have UHD, new releases are about $29 and Blu Ray are about $25 with DVD about $19. So the tiers have remained fairly steady, now mind you at the very beginning Blu Ray did carry a bit more of a premium but it settled down into more or less and normal range. I for one don't want discs to go away, but it is going to happen, at some point. Most people just don't care, streaming is more than good enough for %70 of people, they don't care if the movies available cycle in and out. Although I think when Disney+ starts up and Netflix loses all the Marvel movies, there are going to be some upset people since if they want to stream them they will have to pay for a new service.
dfa973 likes this.
liffie420 is offline  
post #157 of 307 Old 02-26-2019, 10:37 AM
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Colorado
Posts: 437
Mentioned: 6 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 291 Post(s)
Liked: 210
Quote:
Originally Posted by tlogan6797 View Post
This goes WAY back. Anyone remember going to the $1 (or $2) movies? Maybe my age is showing....back in the day, after a film's (notice I said film's) first showing, a couple of weeks later it would make it's way to the bargain theaters. The prints would be scratchy, the bulb usually on it's last legs and the sound usually pretty bad, but hey, it was $1. As a kid, I could take my girlfriend to McD's for 2 50 cent Big Macs, 2 fries and 2 cokes for around $2 (so we didn't need the popcorn), go to the movie for $2 and still put a half tank of gas in my 1970 gas guzzler to cruise around in after, all for about $10.00. Even better, we could go to the drive in for $2, get the GIANT popcorn and sodas, watch the main feature on the giant multiple 4x8ft plywood painted sections of a screen, listen to it on the crappy little metal speaker hanging on the window and make out for the entire B movie.

Picture quality and Sound quality be DAMNED! I got what I wanted out of the cheap and low quality experience.

I'm just sayin'.




And I'm also sayin' that my tastes have changed over the years...in better PQ, SQ and women.

Although I haven't made the leap to UHD yet, I've at least upgraded my projector to a faux-4K, which I can see a huge difference in, even with the upscaled BR from my Oppo103D. I'm guessing that eventually I'll have no choice but to go to UHD.
Minimum wage was what $2.15 per hour, so a kid making minimum wage was spending 5 hours of work for that $10 date.
Today minimum wage is $7.50 or so, so 5 hours of work is a $37.50 date.

Not all that much of a difference.
Bruce2019 likes this.

Current system:
Sony 75X900e/Sony HT-NT5 sound bar with SR-5 rear speakers
Sony X800 4K blu-ray player/Dish Hopper3
Roku 4 Premier/'Sony PS-4
Cheddarhead is offline  
post #158 of 307 Old 02-26-2019, 10:42 AM
Senior Member
 
daWill's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Austin, TX
Posts: 276
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 162 Post(s)
Liked: 142
I think it's doomed. I still have 0 UHD blurays and over 400 itunes movies, with 50% or so in 4k. Quality looks great on my 137" screen and rs640. Audio is the only thing where there might be a noticeable difference. However the itunes atmos is decent. Hopefully they'll increase its bitrate over time. I'm also much more picky on video quality than audio though. I suspect I could notice the video quality differences if I paused it and do side by side, but I suspect my ALR screen introduces more video artifacts than the compression difference itunes vs UHD bluray.

Add better pricing and infinitely more convenience to the streaming side and I only see UHD bluray existing for people with crap internet, like to collect discs, or really want lossless audio. I think that population of people will continue to fall and they'll likely kill off UHD bluray in under 5 years.
Brian Hampton likes this.
daWill is offline  
post #159 of 307 Old 02-26-2019, 11:01 AM
AVS Forum Addicted Member
 
rogo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: Stop making curved screens
Posts: 32,168
Mentioned: 23 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 1892 Post(s)
Liked: 2194
There's a lot of UHD Blu-Ray fans at AVS. And that makes sense: It tops quality by a wide margin. But I think the belief in the format is very misplaced.

Here's the bullish case for long-term availability:

-- There are still LPs
-- There are still CDs
-- Lossy, crappy MP3s more or less destroyed the physical, packaged sound business but there are still LPs!!!!

Here's the bear case:

-- People most don't pay for quality.
-- Yet streaming has good quality that most people find excellent.
-- And it's far more convenient.
-- There is no meaningful 4K rental market. There has never been a packaged video medium in the U.S. that has survived without robust rental availability.
-- Worse, rental is dying period. It's not just a 4K problem, it's a "you can't rent too many places anymore problem."
-- In the U.S. last year, sales of packaged video products fell another 14.5%. That's on the heels of a 14% fall in the prior year. It's a small acceleration percentage wise, but off a rapidly shrinking base that's a "yikes" moment. The total for sales is now 17% of what DEG calls Home Entertainment spending. (That's sales, rentals, streaming.)
-- The total for disc sales is now 1/3 of total box office. It was much higher a decade ago by ratio.
-- BluRay revenue has been flat between 2011-16 (more or less). It's almost certainly fallen since (Source)
-- I don't have numbers handy but that $4B is still probably about 1/2 DVD. Yes, DVD. BluRay has taken an increasing piece of the pie annually, but unless something step-wise happened in past 2 years, it's probably on the order of 50:50. Obviously, UHD BluRay is a tiny fraction of that.

A realistic forecast:
-- Nothing is going to increase sell through of media. Especially when major brands like Samsung aren't even promoting the format.
-- Sales of media will fall by 12-20% annually for the next 5 years. A bullish case is that sales are $2B in 2024. Bearish? <$1B.
-- Let's say BluRay has 80-90% share of disc sales by then, so ~$800M-$1.8B.
-- The good news? That could mean BluRay itself stays flattish through the 5-year period. That's not actually likely -- BluRay sales are falling, fewer blockbuster hits on disc, fewer titles overall, etc. (Source)
-- Of whatever total remains, it's likely UHD will have an outside presence because of higher buy rates
-- But we're talking 50% HH penetration for disc players in 2024. Maybe 10% for UHD BluRay (?). At $2B and 70MM HHs, that's about $28 per HH that still buys discs. The sobering math there is the average BluRay home will be buying ~1 disc per year. Many will be buying zero, which is pretty awful for the future.
-- Still, it's not hard to see $500MM in UHD BluRay sales in 2024, with perhaps $100-200MM as a lower bound? Today, brick and mortar rental (i.e. like Blockbuster, not Redbox) is $315MM annually.
-- So 5 years from now, if UHD BluRay still is produced, it'll be comparable to the volume done in brick and mortar video stores today!

Of course, things could end sooner.
-- One or two major studios dropping support for UHD BluRay begins a death spiral. --
That Chinese consumers are the growing part of the movie industry and don't use disc players much (at all?) could cause priorities to shift.
-- Streaming is going to continue to improve rapidly. Better sound (please!), nonsensical support for 8K (inevitable).
-- It's much easier for Amazon/Apple/Walmart to add support for a new sound or video innovation than to get a disc format produced. Existing player devices can often be upgraded, and new ones often cost ~$50 while remaining automatically backwards compatible.

Rather than say definitively UHD BluRay is doomed soon (it probably is already doomed, but for enthusiasts that might not matter!), it's safe to say
-- There will not be another movie disc format introduced. No one will support this at studios or in CE.
-- UHD BluRay will be the "hanger on" but it might be DVD that survives last due to the larger installed base.
-- By 2025, it will be challenging to find standalone UHD BluRay players for sale from any major maker. Used Xboxes will be desirable (!)
-- The studios will eventually look at these sales as rounding errors. If they come up with better selling techniques (rent spend convertible to ownership as a ubiquitous feature e.g.), valuable extras (I'm thinking Atmos not deleted scenes), etc. then disc sales will decline much more rapidly.
CruelInventions and dfa973 like this.

There's a saying about "everything in moderation". If only it was applied to well, you know...
rogo is offline  
post #160 of 307 Old 02-26-2019, 11:13 AM
AVS Forum Special Member
 
Ted99's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Houston, TX
Posts: 1,927
Mentioned: 15 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 931 Post(s)
Liked: 418
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jameshtx View Post
Sorry for off subject but where do you rent your 4k disc at? I'm from Houston as well. thx
Google the "3DBluRay" rental service. Subscription, like Netflix, but they have 4K discs, which are heavily weighted to SuperHero flics. I dropped it because the turn around time (they are near Chicago) pretty well limited me to two discs per month on a one at a time plan, PLUS, I was able to run the tables on anything I wanted to watch pretty quickly.

JVC RS600 Chad-callibrated, 120" 1.3g in Batcave HT, Denon X8500 Polk LSiM703 fronts,
RTi-12 rears, LSiM 706 center, Monitor 40 Heights, Monitor 60 FW, FXiA4 Bi-pole sides,
LSiC top front, Infinity 6" VOG. 4X 12" subs w/mini DSP on sub 1 and nearfield 18" from sub 2.
Ted99 is offline  
post #161 of 307 Old 02-26-2019, 11:45 AM
AVS Forum Special Member
 
tlogan6797's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Northern VA
Posts: 5,340
Mentioned: 1 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 155 Post(s)
Liked: 166
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cheddarhead View Post
Minimum wage was what $2.15 per hour, so a kid making minimum wage was spending 5 hours of work for that $10 date.
Today minimum wage is $7.50 or so, so 5 hours of work is a $37.50 date.

Not all that much of a difference.
True, but my point is that I was willing to pay $1 to go to the crappy theater or Drive-in instead of the $2.50 or so to go to the first run theater.


And I was willing to pay $1.86 for 6 of Shlitz instead of $2.50 for Bud.
RagtopFE likes this.

Tom Logan
Everytime I reply the thread ends

Need motivation? Get LOGANED
The Yellow Dog Cinema and Draft House
tlogan6797 is offline  
post #162 of 307 Old 02-26-2019, 01:40 PM
AVS Forum Special Member
 
TitusTroy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: New York City
Posts: 8,821
Mentioned: 20 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 4114 Post(s)
Liked: 3670
I don't understand why they don't eliminate standalone 1080p Blu-rays and only offer 4K bundles with a 1080p copy inside...this would help 4K grow and also lets people who only have a Blu-ray player to enjoy 1080p while having the 4K disc for the future...
javanpohl likes this.
TitusTroy is online now  
post #163 of 307 Old 02-26-2019, 01:46 PM
AVS Forum Special Member
 
SeeMoreDigital's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Nott'm, UK
Posts: 3,297
Mentioned: 8 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 954 Post(s)
Liked: 699
Quote:
Originally Posted by TitusTroy View Post
I don't understand why they don't eliminate standalone 1080p Blu-rays and only offer 4K bundles with a 1080p copy inside...this would help 4K grow and also lets people who only have a Blu-ray player to enjoy 1080p while having the 4K disc for the future...
Hmmm...

I just want to buy a 4K UHD disc. I don't want a 2K Blu-ray disc too!

I SUPPORT 'FAIR USE'. MY MORALS PREVENT ME FROM HELPING ANYONE WHO OBTAINS COPYRIGHTED CONTENT ILLEGITIMATELY
TV: LG 65UH770V | DISC SPINNER: OPPO UDP-203 | STB: VU+ UNO 4K SE
AMPS: 2No Audiolab 8000A, 2No Audiolab M-PWR | SPEAKERS: 4No KEF 103.2, 3No Wharfedale Diamond 10
ISP: Virgin Media @ 100Mbps | NETWORK: 1000Mbps | NAS: DS212+
SeeMoreDigital is offline  
post #164 of 307 Old 02-26-2019, 02:23 PM
Senior Member
 
zeuspaul's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: SoCal
Posts: 427
Mentioned: 6 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 214 Post(s)
Liked: 247
Quote:
Originally Posted by TitusTroy View Post
I don't understand why they don't eliminate standalone 1080p Blu-rays and only offer 4K bundles with a 1080p copy inside...this would help 4K grow and also lets people who only have a Blu-ray player to enjoy 1080p while having the 4K disc for the future...

Because they want a premium for 4k.


The increase in streaming and the decrease in discs doesn't mean disc sales will go to zero. The prices for discs will rise as they will hold a smaller share of the market.

HT: PSA MTM-210T front, MTM-210C center, PSA MTM-210T surrounds, PSA MT-110 rears, Atmos / Canton, Ascend CBM-170SE, PSA V1800 , PSA V1801, Marantz SR7009 AVR & Emotiva A-100 stereo amp, Panasonic 65ST60 Plasma, Oppo BDP 93, Sony S1700, Music video: JBL L890, L880, LC2, SVS pc13-Ultra, Yamaha RX-V385, ASUS 31.5" IPS monitor, Sony S1700, Multichannel stereo: PSA MT-110, Bose 901, PSA S1510DF, Denon X1400H, Marantz SR6005
zeuspaul is offline  
post #165 of 307 Old 02-26-2019, 02:37 PM
Senior Member
 
Wafflebird's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2007
Location: Treasure Coast Florida
Posts: 225
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 46 Post(s)
Liked: 39
This may have been touched on already.......................But

One other thing to consider as well me thinks. What about all the "Iffy" movies? You know the ones that you are remotely interested in but not sure you want to plunk down ~$30 for? That is where the streaming comes into play for oh so many. Count me in as well I must say. There are a few movies that we go and see at the theater and we know this will be a "Purchase" when it comes out. Then there are the movies that we "Kind of" want to go and see while they are in the theater but we must not too badly as we just don't make it there due to time, and circumstances. So you are milling around in the store a few months later and there it is ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh...... 4K UHD, HDR, Dolby Vision, Dolby Atmos...........................

"Yeah but it didn't really get great reviews" and then slips into the conversation, "Well, we could just watch it on demand for $5 you know" or "I think that is on Netflix or Amazon Prime already". For 80-90% that is a case closed on that movie as we watch it, it wasn't that great and not something I would have wanted to pay ~$30 for. And for me there you have the pro and con of the whole question.

Me personally I want the best picture and sound I can get. But in saying that I also have a 4K UHD player hooked up to a 1080P plasma in my living room still as the picture on the TV is awesome. I am not going to go out and buy a new expensive TV just for the upgrade. I also have a 4K player in my bedroom connected to a 4K TV there. So I am in hopes that the format lasts for quite some time and I think it will.

Streaming, as much as it is inferior video and audio wise, has the ability to bring us something "Pretty good" for movies that might be "Pretty good" while not having to shell out the cash for a new 4K UHD title.

Anyway this is an enjoyable thread to follow and a lot of really good points.

Have a great evening everyone.

If it sounds and looks good, it sounds and looks good!!
Wafflebird is offline  
post #166 of 307 Old 02-26-2019, 02:45 PM
Senior Member
 
dbpaddler's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Philly
Posts: 350
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 134 Post(s)
Liked: 74
Heck. Basic HD isn't even standard with cable/FIOS. They still charge an HD Technology fee of some sort. It's all about getting more money any way they can.

Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk
dbpaddler is offline  
post #167 of 307 Old 02-26-2019, 03:54 PM
AVS Forum Special Member
 
chitchatjf's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Lawrence MA
Posts: 3,459
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 87 Post(s)
Liked: 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by dbpaddler View Post
Heck. Basic HD isn't even standard with cable/FIOS. They still charge an HD Technology fee of some sort. It's all about getting more money any way they can.

That is something that Comcast does
chitchatjf is offline  
post #168 of 307 Old 02-26-2019, 04:59 PM
AVS Forum Special Member
 
almostinsane's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 4,137
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 71 Post(s)
Liked: 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob Pariseau View Post
Of COURSE UHD Blu-ray is doomed, so long as you set your time horizon out far enough.

But the idea streaming is going to kill it anytime soon runs up against one big problem, which is you can never rely on a streaming service -- or even an expensive collection of streaming services --- to include the titles you want to watch when you want to watch them.

The model for streaming is you get to watch what they've licensed to include in their catalog at the moment. And nothing lasts forever in those catalogs. Even folks who have "purchased" streaming content have discovered their "purchased" titles can go away. You've only actually paid for the right to view the title multiple times so long as it remains in the catalog. Licensing deals expire all the time, and streaming services are certainly not in the business of trying to offer anything close to the full range of titles available on discs (especially across all formats of discs).

On top of that, the quality of a stream will vary each time you choose to watch. This can happen even during a single viewing session, given network congestion and server loading. But more important, as time goes on the streaming services tend to retain only lower bit-rate versions of their titles, freeing up space for titles they are more eager to market. Thus that "acceptable" level of streaming quality you first had on a streaming title often degrades to "unacceptable" in just a period of months. This is even more of a problem if you forgot to view the title while it was new to the catalog.

Discs win because they don't go away, and the quality on repeat viewings is identical to the first viewing.
--Bob
Your example on streaming catalog titles is no different than BD or UHD players requiring constant firmware updates to be able to play new titles with DRM changes. Once the player stops receiving firmware updates then you need to buy a new one to play the new titles you buy. If the streaming service doesn't have the title you want to play then you can find one that does.
almostinsane is online now  
post #169 of 307 Old 02-26-2019, 05:01 PM
AVS Forum Special Member
 
almostinsane's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 4,137
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 71 Post(s)
Liked: 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Toknow****a View Post
That subscription revenue still does not equate to what the music industry did in its prime years with CD sales.
You make it sound like music industry revenue from CD sales was forever supposed to increase every year and they were entitled to constant profit. Eventually consumers decided that paying $15 for a CD with 1 hit on it was equivalent to theft from their wallets. Power shifted to consumers away from music companies.
AaronMK likes this.

Last edited by almostinsane; 02-26-2019 at 05:05 PM.
almostinsane is online now  
post #170 of 307 Old 02-26-2019, 05:14 PM
Read the FAQ!
 
Bob Pariseau's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Posts: 35,182
Mentioned: 67 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 5760 Post(s)
Liked: 8229
Quote:
Originally Posted by almostinsane View Post
Your example on streaming catalog titles is no different than BD or UHD players requiring constant firmware updates to be able to play new titles with DRM changes. Once the player stops receiving firmware updates then you need to buy a new one to play the new titles you buy. If the streaming service doesn't have the title you want to play then you can find one that does.
Umm, but the discs you already OWN will continue to play. As they will when you get a new player.

There's much less reason to believe you can find an alternative streaming service which will offer titles dropped by the service(s) you are currently paying for.
--Bob

Need personal consultation/training? Or just curious about my Blog? Check out my web site!
Bob Pariseau is online now  
post #171 of 307 Old 02-26-2019, 05:21 PM
AVS Forum Special Member
 
almostinsane's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Posts: 4,137
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 71 Post(s)
Liked: 48
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bob Pariseau View Post
Umm, but the discs you already OWN will continue to play. As they will when you get a new player.

There's much less reason to believe you can find an alternative streaming service which will offer titles dropped by the service(s) you are currently paying for.
--Bob
It's in the movie companies best interest to have the content available on a or any streaming platform to be able to be viewed. They get recurring revenue. Once you have paid for a title they no longer get any money. Most consumers don't want to watch a movie over an over anyway. They aren't like music, they are a one and done experience.

It doesn't sell me on a hardware player knowing it will eventually be useless faster than players were in the past. The consumers who dictate sales are the millennials and gen Z'ers who gravitate to streaming over physical media. Ownership isn't a sales line item, its an object that will be viewed once that takes up space and costs as much or more than a month of unlimited streaming viewing on Netflix.

Last edited by almostinsane; 02-26-2019 at 05:51 PM.
almostinsane is online now  
post #172 of 307 Old 02-26-2019, 07:37 PM
Senior Member
 
dbpaddler's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Philly
Posts: 350
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 134 Post(s)
Liked: 74
Quote:
Originally Posted by chitchatjf View Post
That is something that Comcast does
There's a few companies that do according to the deal threads I've been in for cable/internet. But Comcast does rank up there in fees. Horrible in Philly.

Sent from my SM-N960U1 using Tapatalk
dbpaddler is offline  
post #173 of 307 Old 02-26-2019, 11:03 PM
AVS Forum Special Member
 
chitchatjf's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Lawrence MA
Posts: 3,459
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 87 Post(s)
Liked: 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by dbpaddler View Post
There's a few companies that do according to the deal threads I've been in for cable/internet. But Comcast does rank up there in fees. Horrible in Philly.

$10 here and I know of some Comcast subscribers who STILL use a DCT2000 hooked up via ANALOG ch 3.0
chitchatjf is offline  
post #174 of 307 Old 02-27-2019, 02:37 AM
Newbie
 
AVObsessive's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 2
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 0
I think streaming will be the future. The internet connections getting faster and faster, making streaming in 4k and Atmos/DTS-X a piece of cake. Just to name one: The Punisher on Netflix and if I am not mistaken Game of Thrones are available in Atmos.
I have a ton of disks that are just collecting dust and I am not seeing myself buying disks anymore. Renting or buying online is for me the way to go.

Audio: Denon X6300H, Front: KEF Q100, Center: Bose VCS-10 ( I know, time for an upgrade ), Sub: SVS PB1000, Surround: Polk T15, Rear: Polk S10, Height Mid and Rear: Magnat Interior ( time for an upgrade as well ).

Video: Samsung 4K 55-something-6400-something, Zappiti One media player
AVObsessive is offline  
post #175 of 307 Old 02-27-2019, 03:08 AM
Advanced Member
 
AnalogHD's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 644
Mentioned: 3 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 361 Post(s)
Liked: 436
Quote:
Originally Posted by imagic View Post
But, with the recent news that Samsung has decided not to develop any more Ultra HD Blu-ray players and AV enthusiast favorite Oppo already having abandoned ship, the writing appears to be on the wall for 4K disc-based content.
On the other hand, UHD BD is by now a mature technology.

Music CDs still sell. There's virtually no development in players, as there's nothing left to develop.
Audio DVD and SACD dies because the media is different, the players are expensive, and no one cares.

With UHD-BD, "no one cares" still applies, but to a lesser extent. On the other hand,the physical media for UHD-BD is the same as BD. The real question is, why are companies releasing low-res BD at all? Partially for compatibility with old players, partially to overcharge for the UHD version.

UHD-BD didn't take off the way it should have for three reasons: excessive pricing, extremely limited market penetration of 4K signal chains, and dominance of fake-4K content, which meant people didn't even get to see any difference.

It's only recently that 4K TV have become common, but many are still hooked up to older AVR. And it's not before the mid-2020s that TV sizes will actually grow enough, and enough movies will have been filmed and mastered in 4K+ chains, for 4K to make a visible difference in enough households.
The compatibility reason will go away in time. And to overcharge for UHD-BD, you have to actually sell them.

So, all in all, I think it's very likely that, rather than vanishing, UHD-BD may well end up being the physical movie media format that lasts. Studios that are too cheap to master in 4K will stick with normal BD, but at some point far in the future low-res BD will move to legacy support for 4K and 8K mastered titles.

It's unlikely that any future optical media format will be able to break the home market entry barrier. The few households that are going to consciously go after 8K signal chains, are likely to be overall on the innovative side, and equipped with 200 Mbps+ networks - fast enough to stream 8K.

It's technically possible to reuse BD-XL for 8K distribution, but the only players will be 9th-gen consoles, which we won't see until well into the 2020s. And even if we do, we've only just started getting real 4K content - requiring 5K+ cameras - we're not going to see proper 8K content (with extensive detail beyond 4K) for a very long time, perhaps until the 2030s. Also, very few will care.
AnalogHD is offline  
post #176 of 307 Old 02-27-2019, 03:52 AM
Advanced Member
 
AnalogHD's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 644
Mentioned: 3 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 361 Post(s)
Liked: 436
Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post
-- By 2025, it will be challenging to find standalone UHD BluRay players for sale from any major maker. Used Xboxes will be desirable (!)
Not sure it's going to get quite that bad. XBone can read your CDs and DVDs along with BDs. If the PS5/new XB retains an optical drive - and it probably will, though they might make a "slim" driveless version by the end of the 2020s, it's going to read BDs just fine.

While DVD has a larger installed base, BD physically last longer. BD players are not made in the 90s, so their hardware might last longer as well.
Even newer driveless consoles will have USB ports. You'll be able to buy no-name Chinese USB bluray readers and plug them into a new console's USB port for a very, very long time. USB isn't going anywhere, and even if somehow it does, there's always going to be an adapter.

Actually... do you even need an X-box? Yes, right now, you can't just plug a USB DVD/bluray drive into the TV and play it. No drivers in the TV's linux. As soon as there's demand, the Chinese will make BD drives that emulate a flash drive. I'm not even sure if they haven't yet.


All in all, though, in eagle's eye view? Home video started with over the air TV, and it's going to return to the air, wi-fi this time. Distributing motion pictures on packaged physical media was a temporary peculiarity, an artifact of an era.
AnalogHD is offline  
post #177 of 307 Old 02-27-2019, 07:40 AM
Advanced Member
 
Bruce2019's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Vienna
Posts: 972
Mentioned: 2 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 512 Post(s)
Liked: 290
Yes and no... Profit wise all premium blu rays aka Ultra HD blu rays and also 3d blu rays (you might be surprised how many 3d movies are released) are the most interesting products for the movie industry.


Why? Because both formats you only get on physical media.. 3d is only on blu ray.. and Ultra HD on a large screen.. You want that high bandwith.. Most enthusiasts with high quality 4k equipment refuse somehow digital media, because they want the best.. The industry knows this..


Also profit margin is very high in this market.. Revenue is one thing.. but profit is what the companies are looking for.. They sell 10.000 blu rays, no profit.. they sell 500 Ultra HD blu rays and that is where the profit is coming from..


It is also a subdivision between the normal user and the enthusiast..


The industry knows that the normal user will switch to streaming in hords.. There is just no way to stop that.. The normal user wants content.. and streaming is not bad quality.. It is just not as good..


The enthusiasts on the other hand, are willing to pay premium.. Just one example: Amazon Germany: Venom Blu ray 17 Euros.. Venom 3d blu ray + 2d blu ray 20 Euros, 4k blu ray: 33(!) Euros


https://www.amazon.de/Venom-Blu-ray-...keywords=Venom


All premium prices.. the 3d version actually is the best because you get 3d and 2d disc for the best price/value


And now comes the real competition: Amazon digital rental: 5 Euros.. You can watch that movie for 48 hours..


And it is possible that Sony Pictures Home Entertainment makes more profit with Amazon digital rental vs (normal blu ray) because of no cost of production, retail disc, shipment, margin for the retailer, advertising money in retail, etc..


Also this year only 3 blu ray models where released.. I think 2 panasonics and one sony (or the other way around).. So no.. UHD is not doomed.. it is the only physical players left selling with profit..


Blu Ray 1080p is somehow doomed.. Players under 100 Euros.. not a single release 2019.. they dont care, that market is over..


So Blu ray is the next DVD.. it will sell and it will be kept in retail for only one reason: Revenue and importance for the retailer.. Shelf space in retail is also advertising for the consumer.. Just look how DVD is still around.. High revenue, low profit, but too big to fail..


Profit wise the future is digital and premium disc and movies.. 3d, 4k, Onys cinema, Imax Cinema..


And just one comment: It is crazy that they dont produce any new blu ray players, but if you go to retail they have almost more old school dvd players from every company..


Who knows if they make more profit with those DVDs then with blu ray..

Panasonic 42inch ST60 owner
Panasonic 42inch S10 ES (Europe/Silver) owner

Last edited by Bruce2019; 02-27-2019 at 07:45 AM.
Bruce2019 is online now  
post #178 of 307 Old 02-27-2019, 09:02 AM
Member
 
Dark Matter's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 177
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 61 Post(s)
Liked: 50
I've only recently (in the past 2 years) had access to 100+ mb internet speeds, and that's only with Comcast, unfortunately. Even though I'm a mile from the city of Atlanta, AT&T still does not even have fiber here, and the fastest DSL was 18mbs. It was too slow to even support the AT&T Uverse service I was sold. I would program the DVR and come home to find half of a show, with the other half frozen and stuttering to a halt because heaven forbid, my wife and/or sons wanted to watch something in HD while I was also recording in HD.

If I, just outside the city of Atlanta only have 1 option for (true) high speed internet, that does not sound very promising for residents far outside major metropolitan areas. Even if high speed internet becomes available in less densely populated areas, it still has to be affordable for the customer base, or it won't make a difference, so what good will streaming in 4K or even Full HD be for those folks? I'm paying $80/mo just for internet. Moving to a streaming only model is a terrible idea and will alienate more people than it will serve. You can get a blu-ray player for 45 bucks or less, and grab a handful of movies from Wal-Mart for another 45 bucks, and you're good. With streaming and high speed internet, you have those perpetual monthly expenses on top of having to buy or rent movies that you will never truly own, as is the case with Ultraviolet. Even Netflix takes away movies and tv shows, so if you put them off too long, you may miss out (Dr. Who). By taking away physical media, they're engineering a problem so that they can then sell us a "solution" in the form of expensive high speed internet access, and streaming services, which if we didn't have to stream movies, we may not need to spend so much on the internet.

Years ago, 25mb internet was fine for us until we cut the cord (temporarily) and subscribed to Netflix. So one way or the other, media and telecom industries want to keep us painted into a corner so we're forced to pay them every single month, or have nothing but old physical media. At least they can't take away my original non-CGI enhanced Star Wars DVDs.
Dark Matter is offline  
post #179 of 307 Old 02-27-2019, 12:26 PM
Advanced Member
 
AnalogHD's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 644
Mentioned: 3 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 361 Post(s)
Liked: 436
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dark Matter View Post
I've only recently (in the past 2 years) had access to 100+ mb internet speeds, and that's only with Comcast, unfortunately. Even though I'm a mile from the city of Atlanta, AT&T still does not even have fiber here, and the fastest DSL was 18mbs. ...
Years ago, 25mb internet was fine for us until we cut the cord (temporarily) and subscribed to Netflix.
The US lags 5-10 years behind the rest of the developed world as far as networks are concerned.

In much of Europe, Japan, and some of the emerging markets, true-200 mbps is now widely available, with aggressive price competition, and fake-1000 ("up to", never actual 1000) is making serious inroads. This is a temporary setback - the US will get there, some places have.

Keep in mind that I'm talking 8K with 200 mbps, and there's no 8K yet. It's late 2020s tech with mass deployment in the 2030s. Right now, we just get pretend 8K - at the very best* it will be filmed with a 6.5K camera, which is only 3,250 full RGB pixels wide, then compressed to about a 1080p bluray's bitrate - that isn't needed and would work fine with US bitrates anyway.


*Make no mistake, it's an awesome camera. You hope your 8K will be filmed with that. But a 4K TV will display just as much detail from it as an 8K one, maybe a tiny bit of difference if aggressive AI-guessing-based sharpening is used, and high-bitrate 4K can transfer that as well.
Dark Matter likes this.

Last edited by AnalogHD; 02-27-2019 at 12:30 PM.
AnalogHD is offline  
post #180 of 307 Old 02-27-2019, 12:34 PM
AVS Forum Special Member
 
javanpohl's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 2,196
Mentioned: 10 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 801 Post(s)
Liked: 504
It's been almost a week now and this still says "Samsung is dropping UHD players"--isn't the accurate statement "Samsung is dropping blu-ray and UHD players in the U.S."?
javanpohl is offline  
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
Reply Blu-ray Players

Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Show Printable Version
Email this Page Email this Page


Forum Jump: 

Posting Rules  
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off