Is Ultra HD Blu-ray Doomed? - Page 7 - AVS Forum | Home Theater Discussions And Reviews
View Poll Results: Is Ultra HD Blu-ray Doomed?
It's toast & sooner than you think 30 4.81%
It'll stick around for a while but it's doomed 146 23.40%
It'll keep being a niche option for major new releases, for years to come 332 53.21%
As more people buy 4K (and 8K) TVs UHD Blu-ray will make a comeback 116 18.59%
Voters: 624. You may not vote on this poll

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post #181 of 350 Old 02-27-2019, 02:18 PM
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One thing that will probably lead to the end of physical media is the quality of the players themselves. I own a Laser disc player that still works fine but is 480i/dolby pro logic. While my DVD's had a longer lifespan than my videotapes, the same could not be said of my players have gone through all least 4 players before switching to Blu-Ray. I've only had to buy 2 Blu-ray players so far but the second is starting to go. I will probably buy s UHD player to replace it but that will probably be the last physical media player I will own.

When you look back at the improvements in bandwidth and streaming services over the past 10 years, I would give it 10 years for streaming to catch up and maybe surpass UHD quality in both video and audio. The only reason to keep physical media would be nostalgia. And taking control away from consumers is probably a strong motivation for content creators to push these innovations.
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post #182 of 350 Old 02-27-2019, 03:38 PM
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I think that the only thing that will kill it is the price of the UHD discs. As more and more folk are buying, at the very least, 4K displays regardless of a model's quality, we can surmise that 4K is here to stay.

I really doubt that it costs more to produce and manufacture UHD discs since most films are filmed, at the very least in 4K with many being shot in 8K while some are still shot in 2K and uprezzed to 4K. Therefore, I think that if the prices of the new films coming out in UHD do not come down, people are just going to settle for their DVD or Blu ray which could be a death knell for the UHD format. I hope not.

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post #183 of 350 Old 02-27-2019, 03:50 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rgarc View Post
One thing that will probably lead to the end of physical media is the quality of the players themselves. I own a Laser disc player that still works fine but is 480i/dolby pro logic. While my DVD's had a longer lifespan than my videotapes, the same could not be said of my players have gone through all least 4 players before switching to Blu-Ray. I've only had to buy 2 Blu-ray players so far but the second is starting to go. I will probably buy s UHD player to replace it but that will probably be the last physical media player I will own.

When you look back at the improvements in bandwidth and streaming services over the past 10 years, I would give it 10 years for streaming to catch up and maybe surpass UHD quality in both video and audio. The only reason to keep physical media would be nostalgia. And taking control away from consumers is probably a strong motivation for content creators to push these innovations.

You get what you pay for with disc players. There are some cheaply manufactured ones out there. Oppo made very reliable disc players. Pioneer, Panasonic have some very reliable tank built UHD players on the market now. Sony X800 and X1000ES are good disc players to. I don't think the cheap all plastic BD players are built to last anyway best to buy a built like a tank disc player if your budget allows it.


Keeping physical media for nostalgia? it's still digital on a disc and will have for now until streaming catches up the better video and audio for you dollar. So do you want your digital fed through an internet connection or a disc.
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post #184 of 350 Old 02-27-2019, 05:13 PM
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Originally Posted by coffeecup45 View Post
You get what you pay for with disc players. There are some cheaply manufactured ones out there. Oppo made very reliable disc players. Pioneer, Panasonic have some very reliable tank built UHD players on the market now. Sony X800 and X1000ES are good disc players to. I don't think the cheap all plastic BD players are built to last anyway best to buy a built like a tank disc player if your budget allows it.


Keeping physical media for nostalgia? it's still digital on a disc and will have for now until streaming catches up the better video and audio for you dollar. So do you want your digital fed through an internet connection or a disc.
I have also avoided the cheaper models but I tend to pick from the middle of the road. I have my eyes on the Sony X700 because of DV but could move up the X800 if the new model is promising. Unlike with my DVD purchases I am much more particular about which Blu-ray disks I buy since the AppleTv streaming apps are good enough for a lot of content, especially material that is older or lacks dynamic visual and audio impact. I don't need to see a Jeff Gaffigan special in 4K HDR

I used to say the same thing about CD's vs. Mp3 but with HiRez audio and other uncompressed music format it basically comes down to processing the bits. Uncompressed audio and video is a different animal but I am certain we will see that soon. The only thing lacking is the infrastructure to pass the signal.
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post #185 of 350 Old 02-27-2019, 05:23 PM
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The US lags 5-10 years behind the rest of the developed world as far as networks are concerned.

In much of Europe, Japan, and some of the emerging markets, true-200 mbps is now widely available, with aggressive price competition, and fake-1000 ("up to", never actual 1000) is making serious inroads. This is a temporary setback - the US will get there, some places have.

Keep in mind that I'm talking 8K with 200 mbps, and there's no 8K yet. It's late 2020s tech with mass deployment in the 2030s. Right now, we just get pretend 8K - at the very best* it will be filmed with a 6.5K camera, which is only 3,250 full RGB pixels wide, then compressed to about a 1080p bluray's bitrate - that isn't needed and would work fine with US bitrates anyway.


*Make no mistake, it's an awesome camera. You hope your 8K will be filmed with that. But a 4K TV will display just as much detail from it as an 8K one, maybe a tiny bit of difference if aggressive AI-guessing-based sharpening is used, and high-bitrate 4K can transfer that as well.
I was under the impression that many other countries have serious data caps, defeating the purpose of greater bandwidth, so that downloading a single video game, for example, would exceed monthly data caps. Granted, there are neighborhoods with Gigapower (AT&T's gigabit fiber network) and being that I was a technician, I've tested customer's connections when finishing up jobs and I have seen wifi speeds up to around 500-600 mbps, ethernet over 700 mbps. I think those were limits of their iPhones, iPads, and the occasional laptop. I think the highest I ever saw was around 900 mbps on an ethernet connection. It's just that rollout of these networks is so slow and the country is so big, that even prioritizing major cities takes forever. I worked on a project to install fiber in some new apartments that were being constructed downtown Atlanta, and it took a few days for each building to be done, with only 4 or 5 floors. It's just gonna be a painfully slow journey to get us up to speed, so to speak.

I'm fine with 4K movies filmed at 4K or even HD movies filmed with 4K cameras. At this point, the color depth is more important to me than more pixels, and I really wish instead of streaming, that we had a system by which we could simply download and own a digital copy of the movie on some sort of encrypted file. Obviously someone will break any encryption method that is used, but people already bootleg movies anyways. I just want to have something I can physically hold onto forever, even if it's 1s and 0s on a local hard drive. To me, that beats the cloud any day.
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post #186 of 350 Old 02-27-2019, 05:26 PM
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I don't see it going anywhere. How many billions were spent on physical media last year... some (or most) of which is still DVD?


I've got over 600 titles in my disc library... about a 50/50 split between UHD and 1080p Blu Ray with a handful of classic DVDs that aren't available in any other format. I haven't spent one nickel on streaming media, and have no plans to. I like my movies on the shelf under my control... not in the cloud on someone else's server that can be shut down at any time (see UV) or unviewable on the next internet slowdown.


Comcast caps my data at 1TB a month... and I'm in Seattle metro. My kids use up that data streaming YouTube... how long would it last streaming 4K?


Disc only in my OLED/Atmos HT. Streaming for me is a matter of convenience... I'll redeem the codes or rip my own digital copy with my PC if it doesn't have a code... and I'll stream movies while at work or on a road trip thru my phone or tablet... but I will never adopt streaming as a disc replacement as long as discs are still available.
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post #187 of 350 Old 02-27-2019, 07:49 PM
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After Netflix raised their prices recently, we canceled our 2-disc at a time service. We didn't seem to find the time to watch the Blu-Rays and I would rather put that money towards a 4K disc purchase. I've read interviews that they don't really plan on supporting the disc service past 2025 or so anyway.

I have a feeling there is going to be streaming service fatigue. We already dropped HBO Now since G.o.T. hasn't been on. Once it starts again we will subscribe and try to watch other shows we missed, then drop it again. Just too many services with prices that keep going up. I don't have time to watch all the content available anyway.
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post #188 of 350 Old 02-27-2019, 07:57 PM
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Maybe one day we will have the best of both worlds. Streaming with an upgrade option to download an UHD copy that stays on your HDD or whatever. My cable company (Rogers in Toronto) sometimes offers VOD with a physical Blu-ray copy later on when it's released.
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post #189 of 350 Old 02-27-2019, 08:07 PM
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After Netflix raised their prices recently, we canceled our 2-disc at a time service. We didn't seem to find the time to watch the Blu-Rays and I would rather put that money towards a 4K disc purchase. I've read interviews that they don't really plan on supporting the disc service past 2025 or so anyway.

I have a feeling there is going to be streaming service fatigue. We already dropped HBO Now since G.o.T. hasn't been on. Once it starts again we well subscribe and try to watch other shows we missed, then drop it again. Just too many services with prices that keep going up. I don't have time to watch all the content available anyway.
Add to that, you had consumers clamoring for ala carte services and no more bundles. Now they're getting their wish, and more and more companies are pulling content and creating their own streaming services, and by the time you try to get all the content you once had, you're spending more piecemealing it all together, and instead of having it all in one spot you have multiple apps you have to hop on, bouncing from one to the other.

Then you start to realize I don't need to watch this or that. You start being more selective for what you're willing to pay for. And that leads to the discs you buy. Willing to pay for discs of quality content. Actually just started HBO now again, but I share that with my mom and sister so it's an easy pill to swallow, and Google gave me this month free. T-mobile pays for the majority of Netflix. And I've been a Prime member for ages. I look at the video side of that as bonus. Other than that, I have an antenna and the discs I buy. I only buy 4k ones and pass the 4k to my sister and keep the 1080 for me since my JVC is still 1080. Will get them back when I decide to upgrade. Never pay close to full price.

So as more and more streaming services pull from cable or augment their cable offering, people won't be able to keep up with all the streaming options. They'll be more selective and possibly turn back to discs as it's a better option than maintaining way too many subscriptions. As long as I can find high single digit to very low double digit 4k disc options, I'll do my part to keep them going.

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post #190 of 350 Old 02-27-2019, 08:46 PM
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Add to that, you had consumers clamoring for ala carte services and no more bundles. Now they're getting their wish, and more and more companies are pulling content and creating their own streaming services, and by the time you try to get all the content you once had, you're spending more piecemealing it all together, and instead of having it all in one spot you have multiple apps you have to hop on, bouncing from one to the other.
And that's become one of the largest nuisances of streaming lately. Netflix has lost a LOT of content over the last couple years. Countless titles that used to be available on there are now not available on ANY streaming service. And what is available somewhere might be on this service or that, so the fragmentation's really gotten out of control.
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post #191 of 350 Old 02-27-2019, 09:03 PM
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And that's become one of the largest nuisances of streaming lately. Netflix has lost a LOT of content over the last couple years. Countless titles that used to be available on there are now not available on ANY streaming service. And what is available somewhere might be on this service or that, so the fragmentation's really gotten out of control.
Nobody wants to lose out on their part of the streaming pie. Heck, an OTA network (CBS) wants you to pay for content.

Makes you wonder what Disney will do with Marvel series on Netflix, and don't they have something on Hulu now too? Heck,I pay $1/mo for Hulu on some promo, and haven't logged in but once.


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post #192 of 350 Old 02-28-2019, 08:27 AM
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It isn't all about cost, people are willing to pay more for streaming than for UHD, as illustrated below.


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post #193 of 350 Old 02-28-2019, 01:59 PM
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I've just recently started to build a collection of 4K disks, since I've bought a faux-K e-shift JVC projector. (Haven't seen any of them yet as my theater has to be rebuilt due to renovation.)

I'm surprised to see folks here protesting the presence of a standard Blu-ray in the package. Haven't they noticed that the 4K disk doesn't have the special features? There's not enough room for them on the 4K disk. That's why they include the standard Blu-ray disk, which does include them - so we don't make a stink! And they know that if we care about the special features we won't give the standard Blu-ray disk away.


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post #194 of 350 Old 02-28-2019, 03:38 PM
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Every UHD I've seen has extra feature bonus material included. I don't recall seeing any with upcoming movie trailers if that's what you're pointing out? I liked seeing them prior to the main movie personally.
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post #195 of 350 Old 03-01-2019, 06:49 AM
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This goes WAY back. Anyone remember going to the $1 (or $2) movies? Maybe my age is showing....back in the day, after a film's (notice I said film's) first showing, a couple of weeks later it would make it's way to the bargain theaters. The prints would be scratchy, the bulb usually on it's last legs and the sound usually pretty bad, but hey, it was $1. As a kid, I could take my girlfriend to McD's for 2 50 cent Big Macs, 2 fries and 2 cokes for around $2 (so we didn't need the popcorn), go to the movie for $2 and still put a half tank of gas in my 1970 gas guzzler to cruise around in after, all for about $10.00. Even better, we could go to the drive in for $2, get the GIANT popcorn and sodas, watch the main feature on the giant multiple 4x8ft plywood painted sections of a screen, listen to it on the crappy little metal speaker hanging on the window and make out for the entire B movie.

Picture quality and Sound quality be DAMNED! I got what I wanted out of the cheap and low quality experience.

I'm just sayin'.




And I'm also sayin' that my tastes have changed over the years...in better PQ, SQ and women.

Although I haven't made the leap to UHD yet, I've at least upgraded my projector to a faux-4K, which I can see a huge difference in, even with the upscaled BR from my Oppo103D. I'm guessing that eventually I'll have no choice but to go to UHD.
which faux K projector would that be? And if you have it why not just buy the 4k UHD Blu Ray player and start enjoying some them now
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post #196 of 350 Old 03-01-2019, 07:37 AM
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Your example on streaming catalog titles is no different than BD or UHD players requiring constant firmware updates to be able to play new titles with DRM changes. Once the player stops receiving firmware updates then you need to buy a new one to play the new titles you buy. If the streaming service doesn't have the title you want to play then you can find one that does.
So you'd rather have subscriptions to multiple different places just to be able to watch everything you want? lol

what happens in the future if all movie studios decide "eff Netflix" we want our own pie and now each have their own service to subscribe to? I mean someone already stated Disney are on their way to doing this and I'll bet you in this copy cat world we live in there'll be other studios to follow suit after
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post #197 of 350 Old 03-01-2019, 07:46 AM
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which faux K projector would that be? And if you have it why not just buy the 4k UHD Blu Ray player and start enjoying some them now
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post #198 of 350 Old 03-01-2019, 04:03 PM
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So you'd rather have subscriptions to multiple different places just to be able to watch everything you want? lol

what happens in the future if all movie studios decide "eff Netflix" we want our own pie and now each have their own service to subscribe to? I mean someone already stated Disney are on their way to doing this and I'll bet you in this copy cat world we live in there'll be other studios to follow suit after
That's the beauty of subscription services. I only need one or two. And if one service no longer has the content I want I cancel as there are no contracts, they are all month to month, and I start a subscription on a different service. I have zero desire to watch the same movie over an over again, it's not the same as music. Movies are essentially a one and done proposition like sports to me.

When Game of Thrones is done on HBO I'll subscribe for a month, watch the remaining episodes, then cancel. No need to buy the series on UHD for something I'll only watch once in my life.

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post #199 of 350 Old 03-02-2019, 05:11 PM
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It's done. Only a few years left.

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post #200 of 350 Old 03-03-2019, 04:44 PM
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I think currently the reluctance of three likes of Amazon etc to reduce the cost of streaming will keep the disc format alive a little longer.

I think the cloud medium is a bad idea.
Why should I "buy" a film that is actually just a lease as it requires me to stay within an online ecosystem like Amazon. It also restricts me from giving my duplicates and older movies to charity?
Bad form if you ask me and they shouldn't be allowed to use the words "buy" or "purchase" etc
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post #201 of 350 Old 03-04-2019, 08:22 AM
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I think currently the reluctance of three likes of Amazon etc to reduce the cost of streaming will keep the disc format alive a little longer.

I think the cloud medium is a bad idea.
Why should I "buy" a film that is actually just a lease as it requires me to stay within an online ecosystem like Amazon. It also restricts me from giving my duplicates and older movies to charity?
Bad form if you ask me and they shouldn't be allowed to use the words "buy" or "purchase" etc
This continues to support my belief that physical media is going to remain for a long, long time to come. It's the closest we have to personal ownership that surpasses a lot of the fine print associated with streaming services.
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post #202 of 350 Old 03-04-2019, 08:58 AM
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This continues to support my belief that physical media is going to remain for a long, long time to come. It's the closest we have to personal ownership that surpasses a lot of the fine print associated with streaming services.
The problem may be that not enough consumers are interested in owning movies at all.
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post #203 of 350 Old 03-04-2019, 09:03 AM
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The problem may be that not enough consumers are interested in owning movies at all.
My bet is that we're going to see enough consumers interested for the media to continue to sell. Internet and streaming services outside of major metropolises are almost universally terrible and prone to failure/peak-time slowdowns. Many folks out there (IE: a large portion of the consumer market) will be more hesitant to rely on streaming services and prefer to follow the "bird in the hand" approach of owning physical media.

Of course we're all speculating here but this is my 2c.
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post #204 of 350 Old 03-04-2019, 09:11 AM
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My bet is that we're going to see enough consumers interested for the media to continue to sell. Internet and streaming services outside of major metropolises are almost universally terrible and prone to failure/peak-time slowdowns. Many folks out there (IE: a large portion of the consumer market) will be more hesitant to rely on streaming services and prefer to follow the "bird in the hand" approach of owning physical media.

Of course we're all speculating here but this is my 2c.
But we're not speculating. Disc sales are declining fast and streaming revenue is going just as fast in the opposite direction.
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post #205 of 350 Old 03-04-2019, 09:20 AM
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Originally Posted by jesseluo711 View Post
My bet is that we're going to see enough consumers interested for the media to continue to sell. Internet and streaming services outside of major metropolises are almost universally terrible and prone to failure/peak-time slowdowns. Many folks out there (IE: a large portion of the consumer market) will be more hesitant to rely on streaming services and prefer to follow the "bird in the hand" approach of owning physical media.

Of course we're all speculating here [IMG class=inlineimg]/forum/images/smilies/smile.gif[/IMG] but this is my 2c.
But we're not speculating. Disc sales are declining fast and streaming revenue is going just as fast in the opposite direction.
That’s not the question on the thread. The question is whether the media is going to die out. Current trend doesn’t necessarily equal long term conclusion. What I’m saying is that we are seeing a declining trend today, but I believe it’s asymptotic; it won’t result in the media dying altogether, because there are cultural forces and use cases that will keep it relevant long term.

Decline? Sure. Doomed? I doubt it.
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post #206 of 350 Old 03-04-2019, 10:25 AM
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Originally Posted by jesseluo711 View Post
That’s not the question on the thread. The question is whether the media is going to die out. Current trend doesn’t necessarily equal long term conclusion. What I’m saying is that we are seeing a declining trend today, but I believe it’s asymptotic; it won’t result in the media dying altogether, because there are cultural forces and use cases that will keep it relevant long term.

Decline? Sure. Doomed? I doubt it.

I'm positive UHD will be gone in three years. Nobody wants it, including - obviously - the studios. I'm sure BD will be kept alive for a few more years and fortunately there's an increasing number of smaller publishers that release stuff that's much more interesting than Marvel dreck on the format. But even BD will become more and more niche and eventually go away.

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post #207 of 350 Old 03-04-2019, 11:13 AM
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This continues to support my belief that physical media is going to remain for a long, long time to come. It's the closest we have to personal ownership that surpasses a lot of the fine print associated with streaming services.
Except more and more people just don't care about ownership anymore. Nor do they care that they are essentially leasing the rights to a movie when they do buy it from an online cloud service. I am a die hard disc person, I have a 2000 movie collection to back that up. But 4K UHD will be the LAST disc based system we will ever have for movies. The only way we will see 8K disc's is if console makers drastically increase the disc space needed for games, which is unlikely to happen considering the prevalence of day one multi GB downloads. Its sad to say but console games are probably the number 1 use of optical disc media worldwide.
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post #208 of 350 Old 03-04-2019, 06:28 PM
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I'm positive UHD will be gone in three years. Nobody wants it, including - obviously - the studios.
Hopefully this is will not be the case. I plan to upgrade my 2015 78 inch Samsung HDR TV next year, why would I do this - to watch low quality streamed movies???

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post #209 of 350 Old 03-05-2019, 10:00 AM
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I'm positive UHD will be gone in three years. Nobody wants it, including - obviously - the studios.
I want it... and will continue to buy UHD discs as long as they are available. Studios don't want it? Don't like making money?

Looking forward to revisiting this thread in a few years. I fully expect UHD to still be around... just like DVDs. The studios can keep making UHDs but feel free to leave out the 1080p discs. That's one thing I could care less about in a UHD package.

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post #210 of 350 Old 03-06-2019, 03:22 AM
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Looking forward to revisiting this thread in a few years. I fully expect UHD to still be around... just like DVDs. The studios can keep making UHDs but feel free to leave out the 1080p discs. That's one thing I could care less about in a UHD package.

Putting the special features on the 1080p disc does allow more space on the UHD disk for a less compressed UHD movie. I think there is an advantage to still including the 1080p disc for that reason.


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