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Will 4k UHD Blu-ray discs be the last consumer physical media format for movies?

49K views 324 replies 80 participants last post by  cdcollector87 
#1 ·
Will 4k UHD Blu-ray discs be the last consumer physical media format for movies?

If you believe there will be a new format, do you believe it will be disc based, a USB flash drive, or something else?

Will it be 8k, or maybe 4K with greater color depth, less lossy compression, etc?

And, of course, when?

I'm just wondering what people's thoughts are, not asking for any practical reason.
 
#2 ·
It probably will be the last physical format. Mostly because physical sales are sliding in digital downloads and streaming. And you know the movie industry loves the pseudo ownership status of online digital stores, while the public loves not having shelves and shelves of discs and being able to just pick their movie off the list on the tv.

The few people who want physical ownership are really an anomaly - after all, why do you want to search through boxes and boxes for a movie when you can just sit down and choose it off the menu?

"Netflix and chill" really means lounging on the sofa watching movies, not trying to find something to watch off the myriad of shelves in the video library.
 
#65 ·
It probably will be the last physical format. Mostly because physical sales are sliding in digital downloads and streaming. And you know the movie industry loves the pseudo ownership status of online digital stores, while the public loves not having shelves and shelves of discs and being able to just pick their movie off the list on the tv.

The few people who want physical ownership are really an anomaly - after all, why do you want to search through boxes and boxes for a movie when you can just sit down and choose it off the menu?

"Netflix and chill" really means lounging on the sofa watching movies, not trying to find something to watch off the myriad of shelves in the video library.
It's not really about searching thru movies for me... it's more about uncompressed quality. I've got over 600 titles on 1080p/UHD disc... and have a digital copy of all of them as well. I'll either redeem the code myself or if it's an older blu ray without a code I just rip the disc with MakeMKV and then encode an MP4 with Handbrake. I then use another app to add the metadata and *BOOM* I've got a digital file for my own personal use that looks and sounds exactly like one that I would buy off iTunes... even right down to the file icon! Current digital storage for all these films on my HDD is pushing 5TB.

The convenience of digital is good... I can pull movies right off my PC via iTunes and send them to any portable device connected to my WiFi... or copy them straight to the device for road trips. For watching in the HT on my calibrated OLED... it's disc only. That won't be changing. People who say there is no difference in quality between disc and digital are misinformed.

4K UHD discs my very well be the last digital format and that's fine. I made my physical media investment all in the last year since buying my OLED and don't plan on investing in any future formats anyway. I'm not worried about physical media going any anytime soon either... they are still selling DVDs for crying out loud and physical media sales were something like $4B last year. The studios will be milking this cash cow for many years.

Maybe it's just me but I don't see that much of a difference in the time it takes to look thru 600 movies on a shelf or scroll thru 600 movies on a screen... it definitely has no bearing in my decision to buy physical media. In the end it's about quality... and I'll take the disc every time for the ultimate viewing experience in my OLED/Atmos HT. The digital copies are for portability or for streaming on the iPad while laying in bed... nothing more. There's also the fact that when the digital services shut down like UV is this summer I've got all my movies on a shelf and not on someone else's hardware that I have no control over. That alone makes it worth buying the disc... I get BOTH physical and digital for either the same price or a few dollars more. Definitely doesn't make a difference in my budget either way.


Cheers.


:D
 
#7 ·
Bummer.... I was really looking forward to buying all my favourite movies again in the 8K HyperHD Green-ray disc format :eek:
 
#5 ·
If it isn't the last physical format, It's the last one I'll be investing in.
 
#6 ·
Yeah... I said that when Blu-Ray came out. So many of those movies that I bought on Blu-Ray looked a bit clearer, but not THAT much - because they were old! I expected all Blu-Ray releases to be pristine, and we know that the final copy depends on the source material. So I have not re-purchased any 4K movies that I already own.

But then last night, my kid says "Hey dad, I've never seen Peter Pan or Robin Hood. Kids were talking about them at school. Can you get them?" So I got on ebay and searched. Looks like Disney released Peter Pan back in 2004 or so, then again about 10 years later. The more recent ones cost a couple of dollars more, so I figured that meant they might have upgraded the sound mix to include more recent formats? (I didn't take the time to research since it was an older Disney movie ya know.)

But now that makes me think - what if the 13th re-release of The Fifth Element had an upgraded Atmos soundtrack? That would be COOL. I'm slowly moving in the Atmos direction, and I could see me doing some re-purchases to get the upgraded sounds. So while I agree with what you said, I also think "Never say never"...
 
#8 ·
Forget streaming from someone else's servers. I like owning my media and ripping it the way I choose.
That gives me the choice of serious viewing with the best possible PQ and AQ from the best source available to me, the physical BR or UHD4KBR disc, OR, streaming from my own server in pretty darn good quality for casual viewing.

Not to mention the fact that I actually own the media. I had friends who lost music when some early streaming services closed their doors. They weren't laughing at physical media when that happened.

Physical discs aren't susceptible to internet outages, ISP data caps, or low bandwidth buffering hell.

I do hope UHD will be the last physical media that requires a moving parts player. In a perfect world the next physical media would be isolinear chips. :)
 
#9 ·
Having uncompressed digital copies of media is the ultimate solution. But no labels are going to allow this. Yes we can rip our movies with software, but it means we had to own a physical copy first. Defeats the purpose. Further, I don't believe that streaming 4K UHD across the interwebs has the quality of a physical disc.
 
#11 ·
Having uncompressed digital copies of media is the ultimate solution.
Actually, video-wise it's still compressed. Just much less-so than streaming from an internet media service provider...
 
#12 ·
I was thinking if there was a newer physical format it would be a USB flash drive. You'd buy a flash drive with the movie preinstalled on it.

Or maybe it would be a service in which you download (probably over several hours) an 8k video to a local hard drive. Is that how the Kaleidoscope home video service worked?

But I'm always wrong about these kind of things.
 
#13 ·
I was thinking if there was a newer physical format it would be a USB flash drive...
Discs are still way cheaper to manufacture than USB flash drives.

How much does a typical 128GB USB flash-drive cost? And such drives would require larger capacities in order to store say, a 120 minute 8K movie, even if the upcoming VVC (Versatile Video Coding) format was used...
 
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#18 ·
Currently, most film and television content is completed at 2K, though 4K is rapidly becoming the standard. There's no plan for implementing 8K anytime soon. Older films shot on 35mm have somewhere between 3-4K of real detail in the original camera negative, depending on the film stock used, lighting, filters etc. So there's virtually no content an 8K video format could take advantage of, aside from a handful of films shot on 65mm and real IMAX.
 
#19 ·
So that would support the idea that, if there is a new physical format, it may still be 4k resolution but with less compression than the current UHD disc format. And it may include an increase of other specs, like a wider color gamut.
 
#24 ·
If we realistically expect 8K/VR/HFR content in the next 10 years, then there will most definitely be another physical format. As a gamer, I'd like to think that the push for 48Gbpst exists solely for my desire for higher frame rates, etc., but I know full well that gaming is not the sole driving force behind the 48Gbps push.
 
#26 · (Edited)
At worst, video buffs will return to the 80's-90's pre-DVD days when we were enough to support a niche format
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaserDisc

and most LD's were produced with the collector/buff in mind.

In the long run, physical video media will probably be analogous to how 2ch vinyl/CD/SACD collectors value and curate their media
https://www.avsforum.com/forum/173-2-channel-audio/1001719-album-cd-vinyl-you-listening-now.html

I still collect CD's & vinyl, lots appearing at thrift/yard sales for almost free. I consider it akin to stamp collecting, but also motivated by the analog sound (vinyl) and lossless digital quality for less cost than the Tidals of the world (CD/SACD/BD audio)

Yes, well curated collections and well maintained disc rarities/OOP titles will always have interested buyers and appear someday on Antiques Roadshow :D

Lots of money/enjoyment to be had in rare books, for example (vs Kindle/PDF's)
https://www.rarebooklink.com/
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entr...stores-in-america_us_58fe472ae4b06b9cb9192bb3

Retail disc media is already relegated to mom & pop indie stores- a Good Thing IMO
https://dearbornmusic.net/
 
#27 · (Edited)
...and of course there is the ownership (physical media) vs rent/lease model (streaming/downloads).

Plus, moving forwards, if streaming/downloads replace physical media, AV-philes will never be assured of the codec, bitrate, lossy vs lossless availability (Audio), resolution, artifacts, etc from one day to the next, i.e. can change on the whim of the provider.

With physical media, these are locked onto the media and not changeable by the IP owner after sale- same goes for arbitrary edits/censoring (Han shoots first, ET flashlights vs guns, vintage WB and Tex Avery toons, etc) and any other content deemed non-PC moving forwards.
 
#28 ·
No matter. The Marvel influence.

As Rgb suggested, my physical media bunker is well-stocked without them.
 
#29 · (Edited)
Yes, us Shiny Disc Preppers will laugh as the hoards plead to see our formidable film collections of rare cuts and director commentaries, uber multi disc sets and complete SuperBit DVD collections, clawing up the sides of the streaming Walled gardens like culture starved zombies from World War Z :D
 
#47 ·
It is interesting that we are discussing moving past UHD when DVD still is the most produced format. It is somewhat ironic we are discussing how studios would love to go digital to control rights, yet they also keep releasing a very easily pirated/copied medium in DVD. You'd think they'd make bluray the lowest format. It's not like bluray players are expensive. The only area that it'd be a true hardship is portable players like in cars, but at the same time if you're not a little kid I think you'd rather use your personal phone/tablet in the car.
 
#51 ·
I bought a few upscaled 2K UHD movies and I haven't found them to be worth replacing the original Blu-rays. I'm not going to do that anymore.

Yes, for years the movies we were watching in theaters were barely more resolution than our televisions at home.
 
#53 ·
Out of curiosity I occasionally look at Amazon's "best selling" lists to see what a specific title is doing. I typically see that BD sold the most, then DVD, then 3DBD (if available), then 4kUHD not even making the list at all.

For example if you look right now, The Grinch:
  • BD is #1
  • DVD is #3
  • 3D BD is #75
  • 4k UHD doesn't even make the list


The fact that 4kUHD discs don't even sell as well as 3D, which is a dead format for crying out loud...well, that does not fill me with confidence that there is room for yet another new physical media format.


 

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#54 ·
I’d like to see the 4K & BD releases all combined. If a title gets a 4K release then the Blu-Ray should come with it and eliminate the extra separate Blu-Ray release. The studios would save a ton on separate packaging and shelf space in stores.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
#62 ·
I don't know of any 4K UHD disc without a 1080p BD included.
(always an exception)

So what you are asking is to eliminate 1080p BD packaged releases.

Only issue for some families would be that most 1080p BluRay releases include a DVD, while 4K releases usually do not.

With included UV/stream codes, not a huge deal assuming all allow a local phone/tablet download for mobile/car use.
 
#57 · (Edited)
4K UHD Discs are the first physical format to be introduced after the introduction of Netflix streaming, Hulu, Amazon video, etc. So I can't imagine how anyone with knowledge of the field could have reasonably asked this question before the introduction of BluRays.

Regarding how many posts there are on this topic: https://www.google.com/search?q=uhd+bluray+last+format+site:avsforum.com

Your opinion that there will be many more physical formats for decades (and beyond) to come, while as valid as anyone's opinion, I suspect is in the minority.
 
#58 · (Edited)
Even though we are talking about consumer formats, I wonder if professional formats could be an indicator of how the consumer market will evolve. When I first started working in post production in the early 90’s there were many different video and audio formats in use that required dedicated playback machines. Including: DA-88, DAT, Quad, 1-inch, ¾-inch, BetaSP, M2, D1, D2, DigiBSP, D3, D5, HDCAM. Not to mention film and other consumer formats that were also used in a professional environment like CD, VHS and DVD.

But I think that the last professional playback device that required a dedicated playback machine was HDCAM SR, introduced in 2003. The only exception I can think of is new memory card formats, like XQD. There have been new codecs and new connectors (ie FireWire, USB 3, etc), but I don’t think there’s been a new professional physical format in over 15 years. And there aren’t going to be any more. Everything is file based.


So I predict consumer formats will go the same way. There will be new codecs, but there won’t be another physical software format for audio or video. Just like SACD and DVD-A will be the last physical formats for audio, UHD BluRay will be the last physical format for video. My prediction is there may be another Kalidescape type device that will allow downloads at a higher quality than UHD Blurays. Or maybe it will be a software solution where you connect a low powered computer (like a cheap Mac mini) to your TV and download Hi-res movies to your local drive.
 
#60 ·
I don’t subscribe to cable or satellite. I have OTA, Netflix & Prime. I buy all my keeper shows on Blu-Ray and movies I want on 4K/BD. I only buy seasons of shows that I can’t get on Blu-Ray off iTunes and only buy old shows on DVD if they won’t get a Blu-Ray release.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
#61 · (Edited)
Interesting discussion

https://entertainment.slashdot.org/...to-stop-making-4k-blu-ray-players-report-says

Re:2018 was a sad year for all 4k lovers (Score:4, Interesting)
by jaa101 ( 627731 ) on Friday February 15, 2019 @07:40PM (#58129380)
From reality. The scanners are not the limiting factor, it's rather the film itself. Take "Bad Times as the El Royale" as an example - it was shot on Kodak film of which you can read the specs at https://www.kodak.com/uploaded... [kodak.com]

Look at the logarithmic scale of the spatial resolution diagram - the contrast of the higher spatial frequencies drops very quickly, while granularity quickly increases under all but the most ideal lighting conditions. In reality, the resolution you will get from such a film, even when using good scanners and 4k digital intermediates, is nowhere near the resolution of a decent digital camera (like let's say an Arri Alexa 65).

To explain a little further, he's talking about the "Modulation Transfer Curves" graph, which essentially shows how well the film records fine detail. It's 100% at 10 cycles per mm but below 50% (and falling steeply) by the time you go up to 80 cycles per mm. Now there are, crudely, 2 pixels per cycle and the 35mm film frame is 25mm wide, so that's 4000 pixels across. Remember, that's the film coming out of the camera; the quality of prints will be worse. Another factor is that camera lenses will struggle to match the resolution of this film.
Re:35mm (Score:4, Informative)
by pezezin ( 1200013 ) on Saturday February 16, 2019 @01:53AM (#58130228)
For a full frame 35mm film (36x24mm) to resolve 90 megapixels, it should have a resolution of 160 lines/mm. Such film exists (Fuji Velvia 50, for example), but only under ideal lighting conditions and high contrast images. Cinema used a film format half as big (24x18 mm), so the resolution would have to be 230 lines/mm. Without getting into a very long winded debate, getting 90 megapixels out of 35 mm film is pure fantasy. From IMAX, sure, but from 35mm, no.
https://www.kodak.com/uploadedFiles...es/VISION-500T-Sellsheet_US_4PG-180829-SP.pdf



So, for most 35mm films, perhaps current 4K UHD BD discs may be the end game.

...mayhaps 8K discs for 70mm films? :D
(and video shot with 8K+ digital cameras of course)
 

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#66 ·
I don't know if there's a point to anything beyond UHD Blu-Ray disks. How much further improvement is there to go in further reducing compression artifacts, or color space (and they do support 4k60, right?)

8k video seems like only the realm of standing directly in front of a screen in a show room, to me.


Though I'm personally at a point where I barely buy media any more. Most of my recent media purchases have been on Amazon streaming.

The video quality leaves much to be desired (especially when it switches to low-bandwidth mode, and I've got gigabit internet, so I know that the problem isn't on my end) but it plays on everything (and more importantly, *everywhere* so long as I have an internet connection) and doesn't take up space.


I also don't really watch (most) movies more than once, so rentals are appealing. With the death of the video store, that means either new releases from Redbox (which look better, but include the hassle of having to return them), or anything else from a streaming service.
 
#68 ·
I don't know if there's a point to anything beyond UHD Blu-Ray disks. How much further improvement is there to go in further reducing compression artifacts, or color space (and they do support 4k60, right?)

8k video seems like only the realm of standing directly in front of a screen in a show room, to me.
Back in 2016 when I was doing some product testing for Panasonic and we were at IFA in Berlin, their engineers were talking about 8K. I got the impression from them that 8K would first be used in commercial venues such as cinemas/movie theatres using laser projectors. And might make it into peoples homes several years later...

But things change quickly ;)
 
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