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post #1 of 26 Old 03-22-2020, 09:08 AM - Thread Starter
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Despite Virus New Yorkers Enjoy Spring

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post #2 of 26 Old 03-22-2020, 09:13 AM
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Do not forget to stay 6 feet apart. Respiratory transmission occurs. Most of the infected don’t have symptoms.
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post #3 of 26 Old 03-22-2020, 11:06 AM
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It is amazing how many still disregard the 6' separation. Just in Mark's video there were multiple cases where people just didn't seem to care. It's already been shown that the young are not as invincible as they think.

As to the video itself, Mark, it seemed flesh tones were much too red in some shots. Did you grade this?
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post #4 of 26 Old 03-22-2020, 04:00 PM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by Ken Ross View Post
It is amazing how many still disregard the 6' separation. Just in Mark's video there were multiple cases where people just didn't seem to care. It's already been shown that the young are not as invincible as they think.

As to the video itself, Mark, it seemed flesh tones were much too red in some shots. Did you grade this?
Everything is shot using "Flat,", which must be graded. This usually means upping saturation and altering curves. All clips are treated equally, but in some cases the skin comes out too strong. The worst case is the "break dancers." There is no red increase applied.

Here is a frame grab of the original followed by one from what is in the video, and you can see the original flat skin tones are still somewhat pink, and with the saturation increase, they got redder. Now, their skin tones were quite reddish compared to others, but it is a bit exaggerated.
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post #5 of 26 Old 03-23-2020, 03:18 AM
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Looking at the original "flat" framegrabs it seems Nikon flat is nothing like the comparable non-log flat settings I have used on Panasonic, Canon, Sony and even Olympus. The skin tones in particular are obviously off right off in the original. I imagine if I graded this using the normal gamma or level correction and color correction technique it would probably come out more or less similar to what you got here. It would need either more color balance tweaks in-camera (if available) or selective color grading to tone down the pinkish red skin while maintaining the balance of the other colors.
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post #6 of 26 Old 03-23-2020, 04:30 AM
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It is amazing how many still disregard the 6' separation. Just in Mark's video there were multiple cases where people just didn't seem to care. It's already been shown that the young are not as invincible as they think.

As to the video itself, Mark, it seemed flesh tones were much too red in some shots. Did you grade this?
They will get sick, most people will eventually catch the virus. However, it is unlikely that many in that age group will die.

Most of the people who require hospitalization are the elderly or those with underlying medical conditions that weaken them. For the rest it is going to be a big non event.

What will be interesting is how younger people are going to react when the economy goes south as a result of nobody doing anything for however long it takes, because that is the demographic that will pay the price for that approach. The people who have the fewest resources and probably the first to lose jobs are going to be the 20-30 crowd. In a month or two when they can't pay rent or buy food they are going to be screaming for blood.
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post #7 of 26 Old 03-23-2020, 04:42 AM
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They will get sick, most people will eventually catch the virus. However, it is unlikely that many in that age group will die.

Most of the people who require hospitalization are the elderly or those with underlying medical conditions that weaken them. For the rest it is going to be a big non event.

What will be interesting is how younger people are going to react when the economy goes south as a result of nobody doing anything for however long it takes, because that is the demographic that will pay the price for that approach. The people who have the fewest resources and probably the first to lose jobs are going to be the 20-30 crowd. In a month or two when they can't pay rent or buy food they are going to be screaming for blood.
This is incorrect. Forty percent of those hospitalized are between 20 and 54. Twelve percent of ICU admissions are ages 20 to 44. While it is true, they are less likely to die, many are getting very ill, infecting others and quite possibly ending up with long term lung damage.
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post #8 of 26 Old 03-23-2020, 04:55 AM
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This is incorrect. Forty percent of those hospitalized are between 20 and 54. Twelve percent of ICU admissions are ages 20 to 44. While it is true, they are less likely to die, many are getting very ill, infecting others and quite possibly ending up with long term lung damage.
If there are no ventilators because they're all used up, then I think a huge portion of those ICU bound cases are going to die.

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post #9 of 26 Old 03-23-2020, 08:44 AM
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No less scary than how many people will be dying or permanently incapacitated is how many will be starving. The epidemic is now so crippling that what I am afraid of is if it shows signs of subsiding people will be far too starved to be willing to safely wait out the potential period of the incubation, thus allowing it to swamp back at part of the population again, and more deadly and more crippling the second time around.
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post #10 of 26 Old 03-23-2020, 10:38 AM
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This is incorrect. Forty percent of those hospitalized are between 20 and 54. Twelve percent of ICU admissions are ages 20 to 44. While it is true, they are less likely to die, many are getting very ill, infecting others and quite possibly ending up with long term lung damage.
In addition to taking up valuable hospital resources for something many of them could have avoided in the first place. In Germany some of the young kids are deliberately coughing on seniors and shouting, "Corona". You can't make this stuff up. Sickening...figuratively & literally.
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post #11 of 26 Old 03-23-2020, 10:40 AM
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No less scary than how many people will be dying or permanently incapacitated is how many will be starving. The epidemic is now so crippling that what I am afraid of is if it shows signs of subsiding people will be far too starved to be willing to safely wait out the potential period of the incubation, thus allowing it to swamp back at part of the population again, and more deadly and more crippling the second time around.
Food is not scarce, toilet paper is, at least in the U.S.
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post #12 of 26 Old 03-23-2020, 12:00 PM
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Food is not scarce, toilet paper is, at least in the U.S.
It is scarce when you run out of money and don't have a job. You never been in that situation? I have.
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post #13 of 26 Old 03-23-2020, 12:06 PM
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It is scarce when you run out of money and don't have a job. You never been in that situation? I have.
Obviously, but that was not the point I was making...as I'm sure you know. Your response was a bit flip for an observational comment I made about the status of certain staples in stores across the country.

At any rate, I can see this thread descending into the great abyss.
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post #14 of 26 Old 03-23-2020, 12:56 PM
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This is incorrect. Forty percent of those hospitalized are between 20 and 54. Twelve percent of ICU admissions are ages 20 to 44. While it is true, they are less likely to die, many are getting very ill, infecting others and quite possibly ending up with long term lung damage.
Going to a hospital and testing positive is not really hospitalization though, even though some of those people might be warehoused there. Hospitalization is admission to ICU for stuff like this.

Only about 5% of those tested positive worldwide are actually "hospitalized", and about a third of those end up in ICU. Most of the ones that are hospitalized have underlying health issues. The numbers vary from country to country because testing criteria, demographics and standard of care are different. In the US it is closer to 2%. Plus, on top of that you have an unknown number of people who are infected and are not tested because they either don't go for one or don't meet the criteria. That is likely 5-10x the number tested, probably even more, and the overwhelming majority of THAT group are going to be younger people since they mostly don't have underlying medical conditions that might cause them to land up the group that meets the criteria. The "not tested but infected" group is going to be very strongly weighted towards the young healthy side and much less so among the elderly or other high risk groups, so overall positive tests are going to distort the apparent demographics.

The mortality rate among the young is ~0.2% of those tested positive, and that is probably ~0.02% (and likely even less than that) once you take the people who were not tested into account. Those are numbers that are low enough where that demographic will not even perceive the effects of the virus directly. They are unlikely to be aware of any of their peers who die.

The only closed population where everyone was tested is the Diamond Princess cruise ship. About 20% of the people on the ship eventually tested positive. Of those about 3% ended up in hospital and about 1% died. Cruise ships however are disproportionately elderly and almost all of those severely affected were the elderly.

To put it into perspective, in the US about 100 people are killed in car crashes per day. Probably a lot more than that are severely injured. Right now the number of people affected by the pandemic in the US is less than that. It will probably be more in the coming weeks, but only for a short period. Do we shut the entire country down for car crashes? No. It is a risk we live with in order for our economy to work.
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post #15 of 26 Old 03-23-2020, 01:49 PM
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To put it into perspective, in the US about 100 people are killed in car crashes per day. Probably a lot more than that are severely injured. Right now the number of people affected by the pandemic in the US is less than that. It will probably be more in the coming weeks, but only for a short period. Do we shut the entire country down for car crashes? No. It is a risk we live with in order for our economy to work.
The "right now" part needs a LOT of emphasis. The peak in the US is probably not even remotely in sight..
I wish you the best with that attitude and I guess you can only hope most countries are completely wrong, or the US is somehow magically different than those countries.
Edit: Just to be clear, I hope I am completely wrong and will gladly come here to admit this if the day comes.

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post #16 of 26 Old 03-23-2020, 02:56 PM
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The "right now" part needs a LOT of emphasis. The peak in the US is probably not even remotely in sight..
I wish you the best with that attitude and I guess you can only hope most countries are completely wrong, or the US is somehow magically different than those countries.
Edit: Just to be clear, I hope I am completely wrong and will gladly come here to admit this if the day comes.
We can't all stop doing everything and stay home for 6 months. Two weeks is damaging enough, but it can't go much longer than that or things really will start breaking down. Two weeks will not be enough, people who are not infected yet will still be susceptible to infection, and when the two weeks (or whatever) is up and everyone goes back to work, it will start all over again. The virus is not going away, it is endemic now. We are going to have to learn to live with it. What exactly are governments plans? Do they actually have any? Or they just doing random things so they can be seen to be doing something?

This approach in theory should work but in practice is going to cause a lot more problems than it solves. The best approach IMO is to bite the bullet and let the chips fall where they may. Help people who need help but keep society functioning. This is not something like Ebola we are talking about. Although a lot of people will get sick and some may die, it is not going to cut us down like Ebola would. Life needs to go on. Use it as a learning experience and make sure medical supplies and support is stockpiled in the future for situations like this.
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post #17 of 26 Old 03-23-2020, 03:19 PM
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We can't all stop doing everything and stay home for 6 months. Two weeks is damaging enough, but it can't go much longer than that or things really will start breaking down. Two weeks will not be enough, people who are not infected yet will still be susceptible to infection, and when the two weeks (or whatever) is up and everyone goes back to work, it will start all over again. The virus is not going away, it is endemic now. We are going to have to learn to live with it. What exactly are governments plans? Do they actually have any? Or they just doing random things so they can be seen to be doing something?

This approach in theory should work but in practice is going to cause a lot more problems than it solves. The best approach IMO is to bite the bullet and let the chips fall where they may. Help people who need help but keep society functioning. This is not something like Ebola we are talking about. Although a lot of people will get sick and some may die, it is not going to cut us down like Ebola would. Life needs to go on. Use it as a learning experience and make sure medical supplies and support is stockpiled in the future for situations like this.
A vaccin will be developed, so while it's not going to literally stop existing, it will "go away".
But I get the reasoning though, and that's the exact same hard choice a lot of governments around the world are making or had to make. And while NONE of them like or want a shutdown since it's obviously bad, quite a few still chose to go down that road. Some that initially were opposed to it still changed their mind. So that in itself already says a lot imo.
I understand what you're saying, and I've asked the same questions, but at the same time I'm also certain that worldwide tons of people who are 1000 times smarter and better informed than me are involved. They also had to weigh the options, and they came to the conclusion to go into lockdown. But at this moment, can we be 100% sure it's the best way to go? Unfortunately not.
Also depends on what your definition of a "shutdown" and "functioning society" is. It's not like literally everything is shut down or anything, it's not a war zone either

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post #18 of 26 Old 03-23-2020, 04:58 PM
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We can't all stop doing everything and stay home for 6 months. Two weeks is damaging enough, but it can't go much longer than that or things really will start breaking down. Two weeks will not be enough, people who are not infected yet will still be susceptible to infection, and when the two weeks (or whatever) is up and everyone goes back to work, it will start all over again. The virus is not going away, it is endemic now. We are going to have to learn to live with it. What exactly are governments plans? Do they actually have any? Or they just doing random things so they can be seen to be doing something?

This approach in theory should work but in practice is going to cause a lot more problems than it solves. The best approach IMO is to bite the bullet and let the chips fall where they may. Help people who need help but keep society functioning. This is not something like Ebola we are talking about. Although a lot of people will get sick and some may die, it is not going to cut us down like Ebola would. Life needs to go on. Use it as a learning experience and make sure medical supplies and support is stockpiled in the future for situations like this.
We have to delay people from becoming ill all at one and creating a huge peak.
The idea is to “flatten the curve” so the healthcare system is not overwhelmed with a lack of equipment, ventilators, meds and healthcare workers. The healthcare workers, themselves, are more likely to fall ill, if they’ re overwhelmed with too many ill patients and lack protective equipment. Under this situation, the mortality skyrockets. This is not to mention, the increase in mortality from other treatable illnesses such as trauma, heart attacks, stroke and other infectious diseases, as the resources will not be available to treat them. “To bite the bullet and let the chips fall where they may” will lead to untold suffering and death. As the experts have indicated, we need to isolate and track contacts. This will take weeks. This is basic public health and there is no shortcut. We need to treat the pandemic first and the economy can then improve.
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post #19 of 26 Old 03-23-2020, 06:12 PM
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Food is not scarce, toilet paper is, at least in the U.S.
Well, let me correct it. Food may not be scarce but income surely soon will be.
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post #20 of 26 Old 03-24-2020, 04:35 AM
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Hey Mark, how’s your spring video thread doing?
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post #21 of 26 Old 03-24-2020, 07:35 AM
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Hey Mark, how’s your spring video thread doing?
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post #22 of 26 Old 03-25-2020, 01:26 PM
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We have to delay people from becoming ill all at one and creating a huge peak.
The idea is to “flatten the curve” so the healthcare system is not overwhelmed with a lack of equipment, ventilators, meds and healthcare workers. The healthcare workers, themselves, are more likely to fall ill, if they’ re overwhelmed with too many ill patients and lack protective equipment. Under this situation, the mortality skyrockets. This is not to mention, the increase in mortality from other treatable illnesses such as trauma, heart attacks, stroke and other infectious diseases, as the resources will not be available to treat them. “To bite the bullet and let the chips fall where they may” will lead to untold suffering and death. As the experts have indicated, we need to isolate and track contacts. This will take weeks. This is basic public health and there is no shortcut. We need to treat the pandemic first and the economy can then improve.
Don't believe all that "tracking" nonsense. They are not doing that. They can barely test even the people who show up at emergency, let alone do tracking. You know, I have been sick the last week and a half, and still am. Some sort of flu like virus, I would guess it is covid-19 since that is what is happening now. I looked into testing. Apparently unless you are rich and can jump the line, the only people being tested are those who are/may be hospitalized, health care workers and residents of places like old age homes when they get sick. No one else. I may have covid-19, but I will never know for sure because I don't fall into the criteria to be tested.

The normal curve of a flu season however is 3-4 months duration. "Flattening" an epidemic will stretch it out 12-18 months. Most of the people who are going to die will likely die anyway, flattening or no flattening.

What is going to happen is that everyone is going to stop everything for 6-8 weeks, but only about 1-2% of the population will be infected. The rest will still be naïve to the virus, so when they all go back to work it starts all over again. Another 6-8 weeks to get another 1-2% of the population infected, and so on. What they are trying to do is not going to work, roughly about the same number of people are going to die and we will crush our economy. We are talking about 30-40% unemployment rates. And that will lead to far more suffering than covid-19 would ever cause. Soup kitchens, with people dying to ill health due to poverty. The US risks turning into a third world economy.

And don't count on a vaccine. There is none right now and they take 12-18 months to develop.

But I don't think that is going to happen. People are going to get pissed off and lose their patience after a month or so. We don't live in China, this is a democracy, the government is not going to send tanks in.

The proper way to deal with this is to quarantine those who get sick, but otherwise continue working as normal. If there are at risk sub-populations then cordon those off somewhere until the healthy population has all been infected and consequently immune. That will work and it will work quickly. But no doubt that will offend your sensitivities. People won't like that because grandma is going to be locked away in a camp somewhere for a few months. But at least it will keep grandma from dying, as she is very likely to do with the way things are being done now.

The real issue however is that although it has been obvious that this is coming for months now (and some sort of outbreak should have been anticipated sometime in the future well before that anyway), governments have literally done nothing to prepare for the outbreak. No stockpiling, no contingency plans, no emergency building/repurposing of facilities, no testing nothing. They have only started doing those things on the fly once the outbreak is under way locally. So now they are floundering around aimlessly. The level of incompetence is shocking. There was no plan. There is still no plan.

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post #23 of 26 Old 03-25-2020, 03:39 PM
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...
What are you still doing here posting on a forum? Governments all around the world need your advice and help! You seem like a very knowledgeable guy who could teach all those so called experts a thing or two.

Last thing I'll say to you is: I think you are grossly underestimating the effects of letting covid-19 go completely uncontrolled. In terms of casualties (direct and indirect) but also economy.
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post #24 of 26 Old 03-25-2020, 08:31 PM
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Since this thread is hopelessly derailed anyway, I’ll just add there are several very promising drugs that are being used as we speak.

With that said, I would have hoped that the camcorder section of AVS would be an oasis away from the 24/7 Corona & political coverage everywhere, but alas no such luck.

Feel better Tugela.
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post #25 of 26 Old 03-27-2020, 01:34 AM
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What are you still doing here posting on a forum? Governments all around the world need your advice and help! You seem like a very knowledgeable guy who could teach all those so called experts a thing or two.

Last thing I'll say to you is: I think you are grossly underestimating the effects of letting covid-19 go completely uncontrolled. In terms of casualties (direct and indirect) but also economy.
Covid-19 deaths in the US are around 300 a day currently. Cancer deaths are around 1600 a day. If cancer is not a national emergency, then covid-19 is not either. We are a long way from that. While it is a challenge to the system, it is no where near as bad as people are making out when you consider deaths from other diseases which are accustomed to dealing with.

No one freaks out about 1600 people dying from cancer every day, but a few hundred from a virus has them heading to the bunkers?

Most of the issues relate to lack of preparation rather than the absolute severity of the epidemic.
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post #26 of 26 Old 03-28-2020, 08:47 AM
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There is a 2nd wave of crisis on the way in 3 weeks when the stimulus checks arrive. Printing money dilutes purchasing power. With demand already outpacing supply, and the workforce that could remedy the problem shuttered in their homes, shortages of essential items are inevitable.

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