Originally Posted by Dhoobs
We have to delay people from becoming ill all at one and creating a huge peak.
The idea is to “flatten the curve” so the healthcare system is not overwhelmed with a lack of equipment, ventilators, meds and healthcare workers. The healthcare workers, themselves, are more likely to fall ill, if they’ re overwhelmed with too many ill patients and lack protective equipment. Under this situation, the mortality skyrockets. This is not to mention, the increase in mortality from other treatable illnesses such as trauma, heart attacks, stroke and other infectious diseases, as the resources will not be available to treat them. “To bite the bullet and let the chips fall where they may” will lead to untold suffering and death. As the experts have indicated, we need to isolate and track contacts. This will take weeks. This is basic public health and there is no shortcut. We need to treat the pandemic first and the economy can then improve.
Don't believe all that "tracking" nonsense. They are not doing that. They can barely test even the people who show up at emergency, let alone do tracking. You know, I have been sick the last week and a half, and still am. Some sort of flu like virus, I would guess it is covid-19 since that is what is happening now. I looked into testing. Apparently unless you are rich and can jump the line, the only people being tested are those who are/may be hospitalized, health care workers and residents of places like old age homes when they get sick. No one else. I may have covid-19, but I will never know for sure because I don't fall into the criteria to be tested.
The normal curve of a flu season however is 3-4 months duration. "Flattening" an epidemic will stretch it out 12-18 months. Most of the people who are going to die will likely die anyway, flattening or no flattening.
What is going to happen is that everyone is going to stop everything for 6-8 weeks, but only about 1-2% of the population will be infected. The rest will still be naïve to the virus, so when they all go back to work it starts all over again. Another 6-8 weeks to get another 1-2% of the population infected, and so on. What they are trying to do is not going to work, roughly about the same number of people are going to die and we will crush our economy. We are talking about 30-40% unemployment rates. And that will lead to far more suffering than covid-19 would ever cause. Soup kitchens, with people dying to ill health due to poverty. The US risks turning into a third world economy.
And don't count on a vaccine. There is none right now and they take 12-18 months to develop.
But I don't think that is going to happen. People are going to get pissed off and lose their patience after a month or so. We don't live in China, this is a democracy, the government is not going to send tanks in.
The proper way to deal with this is to quarantine those who get sick, but otherwise continue working as normal. If there are at risk sub-populations then cordon those off somewhere until the healthy population has all been infected and consequently immune. That will work and it will work quickly. But no doubt that will offend your sensitivities. People won't like that because grandma is going to be locked away in a camp somewhere for a few months. But at least it will keep grandma from dying, as she is very likely to do with the way things are being done now.
The real issue however is that although it has been obvious that this is coming for months now (and some sort of outbreak should have been anticipated sometime in the future well before that anyway), governments have literally done nothing to prepare for the outbreak. No stockpiling, no contingency plans, no emergency building/repurposing of facilities, no testing nothing. They have only started doing those things on the fly once the outbreak is under way locally. So now they are floundering around aimlessly. The level of incompetence is shocking. There was no plan. There is still no plan.