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post #1 of 108 Old 04-06-2018, 05:20 AM - Thread Starter
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Trade War Could Result in Tariff on Chinese TVs



If you've been reading the news lately, it's likely you are aware that there is a trade war brewing between the United States and China. Leaving out the debate over the wisdom involved in the politics that would result in such a situation, there is a very real issue for AV enthusiasts: The latest round of proposed 25% tariffs on Chinese imports would include flat-panel TVs.

Among the consumer goods that could be impacted by tariffs, TVs represent the single largest category followed by printers. Motor vehicles and computers also make the list, but TVs sit at the top, with half the units exported to the U.S. coming from China.

A 25% tariff on a TV will have a sizable impact on the price of Chinese offerings. Of course, it could also result in Chinese brands moving some manufacturing to North America in order to avoid the tariffs; nobody knows what the consequences of a trade war would be.

There's much complexity here, including the fact that the LEDs used in LCD TVs are also subject to a tariff, meaning that the trade war could impact the cost of all LED-LCDs. Of course, this entire discussion could wind up being purely academic if the threats of an impending trade war turn out to be nothing but political Bluster.

So far, the major TV manufacturers have not provided official comments to the media on this topic. But it's fair to say that if there is a trade war, consumers will have to absorb a yet to be determined bump in TV prices, especially among the brands that have thus far been fighting a price war that has up until now benefited consumers.

Will tariffs on Chinese TVs bring more manufacturing to Mexico, or even the U.S.? Could it wind up benefiting brands such as Sony, LG and Samsung that sell premium products manufacturing outside of China? Will this create an opening for market reentry by Panasonic? Would you still buy a Chinese TV if it cost 25% more?

The current situation creates nothing but questions, only time will provide the answers.
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post #2 of 108 Old 04-06-2018, 05:32 AM
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No politics talk here but a lot of BS is gonna come from this stupidity especially those of us that buy electronics.

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post #3 of 108 Old 04-06-2018, 06:06 AM
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Only thing I will add is that tariffs being put on Chinese goods isn't some new thing that the current admin has done. The last at least 2 admins also put tariffs at times on some Chinese goods. I'm guessing the media didn't really talk about that though.

I do agree that trade wars seem to be a silly thing to do yet I'm open to being proven wrong and hope consumers won't get hit too badly by this.
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post #4 of 108 Old 04-06-2018, 06:14 AM
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Originally Posted by rlindo View Post
Only thing I will add is that tariffs being put on Chinese goods isn't some new thing that the current admin has done. The last at least 2 admins also put tariffs at times on some Chinese goods. I'm guessing the media didn't really talk about that though.

I do agree that trade wars seem to be a silly thing to do yet I'm open to being proven wrong and hope consumers won't get hit too badly by this.
Yeah no, 60 billion, 100 billion wasn't done. Don't blame the media. Targeted tariffs yes. if you think this is good your out of your skull.

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post #5 of 108 Old 04-06-2018, 06:51 AM
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Originally Posted by Hetfieldjames View Post
Yeah no, 60 billion, 100 billion wasn't done. Don't blame the media. Targeted tariffs yes. if you think this is good your out of your skull.

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Ya because prices of items are going to skyrocket.
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post #6 of 108 Old 04-06-2018, 06:51 AM
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Actual live stream video of me watching this thread get waaaaaay too political and lock...

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post #7 of 108 Old 04-06-2018, 06:52 AM
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Originally Posted by Hetfieldjames View Post
Yeah no, 60 billion, 100 billion wasn't done. Don't blame the media. Targeted tariffs yes. if you think this is good your out of your skull.

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And only Chinese junk should get special priviledge
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post #8 of 108 Old 04-06-2018, 07:08 AM
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I didn't start any of this. I just said this is a bad idea. But hey everyone here knows better than me. Tarrifs and prices going up are good.

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post #9 of 108 Old 04-06-2018, 07:27 AM
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Originally Posted by Hetfieldjames View Post
I didn't start any of this. I just said this is a bad idea. But hey everyone here knows better than me. Tarrifs and prices going up are good.

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I think the idea is to encourage home grown product, have production happen in North America. Everyone wants consumer goods at the lowest price point , BUT everyone also demands higher salaries. Somewhere in that lies a balance that has to be realized , it is going to get interesting watching this unfold .

Paying less for consumer goods is an illusion anyway. We turn over technology faster than paychecks arrive. High end electronic components used to have quality and longevity , now it's the opposite . Manufacturers bleed advancements just slow enough to keep product rolling while the old ends up in a dumpster . I'd like to see a return to quality and longevity, minimum 5 year turnover, at present the cycles start at year two . Not just consumer electronic either, everything from a drill to a refrigerator should last well beyond the warranty , it simply does not .

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post #10 of 108 Old 04-06-2018, 07:46 AM
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Originally Posted by roxiedog13 View Post
I think the idea is to encourage home grown product, have production happen in North America. Everyone wants consumer goods at the lowest price point , BUT everyone also demands higher salaries. Somewhere in that lies a balance that has to be realized , it is going to get interesting watching this unfold .

Paying less for consumer goods is an illusion anyway. We turn over technology faster than paychecks arrive. High end electronic components used to have quality and longevity , now it's the opposite . Manufacturers bleed advancements just slow enough to keep product rolling while the old ends up in a dumpster . I'd like to see a return to quality and longevity, minimum 5 year turnover, at present the cycles start at year two . Not just consumer electronic either, everything from a drill to a refrigerator should last well beyond the warranty , it simply does not .
Ok you guys wait for the Sony plant, and TCL plant to open up in the US, just don't hold your breath.

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post #11 of 108 Old 04-06-2018, 08:29 AM
 
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that wont happen unless you pay significantly more, core cost of manufacturing in a first world country is lot higher than china or mexico.
then again, sony and tcl are not american companies, why do they even have to manufacture in america? they are foreign companies, america can decide to vote with its wallet and not buy them. but in the case of electronics, you'll be left with basically no options.
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post #12 of 108 Old 04-06-2018, 08:33 AM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by rene2kx View Post
that wont happen unless you pay significantly more, core cost of manufacturing in a first world country is lot higher than china or mexico.
then again, sony and tcl are not american companies, why do they even have to manufacture in america? they are foreign companies, america can decide to vote with its wallet and not buy them. but in the case of electronics, you'll be left with basically no options.
Thing is, some TVs are assembled in Mexico. Hisense owns rights to the Sharp name and a Mexican plant... https://www.wsj.com/articles/hisense...ory-1456914603

So, there you have an example of a move that will probably pay off for that Chinese brand.

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post #13 of 108 Old 04-06-2018, 08:38 AM
 
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mexico and china are not much different when it comes to core manufacturing cost. the cost of setting up, labor, warehousing etc. is cheap in mexico like in china. if this setup was to be taken to a first world country like us or uk, costs go up higher, your prices go up higher. only way to get foreign companies to make in america and still have them keep their margins like they do today is to agree paying lot more for their products.
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post #14 of 108 Old 04-06-2018, 08:46 AM
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And who is it that's currently building an 8K plant on the Eastern seaboard ? Hisense ? May be they saw it coming and wanted to get a jump on the competition ?

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You're forgetting automation. Any new plant built in the US will be automated to a level where just a few people would be needed to run it. This will take care of cost and not produce enough jobs.

I work in the IT industry and everything is moving to commodity hardware with specialization being moved to software. Similar stuff has happened to TVs where panel manufacturers are far and few and the value add lives in the processing, the software experience etc. The only exception being processors like Sony's X1 but that's a very Japanese thing, to prefer a hardware solution. Perhaps because they have a deep skillset to build them. Don't you think such processing can be tackled by software running on an ARM processor on the TV? In the near future probably.

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In theory, who makes money off of tariffs?
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post #17 of 108 Old 04-06-2018, 09:45 AM
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In theory, who makes money off of tariffs?
The consumers sure don't, we end up paying for them.

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post #19 of 108 Old 04-06-2018, 10:00 AM
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I didn't start any of this. I just said this is a bad idea. But hey everyone here knows better than me. Tarrifs and prices going up are good.

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Yes you did. Something about stupidity such and such. Maybe it is. Maybe it isn't. Having worked for a US electronics manufacturer and seeing the predatory price dumping just destroy this country's manufacturing by countries that pay $0.05 - $0.10 on the dollar in wages tells me all I need to know. Example: Hikvision, a six-year old Chinese company owned more than 50% by the Chinese government, is now the world's largest manufacturer of security cameras. By providing the company tens of billions in cash (none paid back), the company decimated worldwide prices, as companies like Hitachi, Sony, Axis and others had to slash prices in a race to the bottom. Each time these companies have reduced pricing, Hikvision reduces it further, to the point that companies have had to cut back staff, R&D and distributing from the huge reduction in profitability.

It is an unfair trading practice, for a government to be a majority owner, provide tens of billions in funding with no payback, pay wages that are 1/4 those of developed countries, and ignore the environment in the manufacturing process, as well as vastly reduced safety regulations that don't adequately protect their workers from poor working conditions. I'm not sure how it should be handled, but if nobody stops China by putting up roadblocks, then they'll just continue as they are currently, and you can continue to enjoy your $229 50" 4K TV.
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post #20 of 108 Old 04-06-2018, 10:06 AM
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Originally Posted by digital_dilemma View Post
Yes you did. Something about stupidity such and such. Maybe it is. Maybe it isn't. Having worked for a US electronics manufacturer and seeing the predatory price dumping just destroy this country's manufacturing by countries that pay $0.05 - $0.10 on the dollar in wages tells me all I need to know. Example: Hikvision, a six-year old Chinese company owned more than 50% by the Chinese government, is now the world's largest manufacturer of security cameras. By providing the company tens of billions in cash (none paid back), the company decimated worldwide prices, as companies like Hitachi, Sony, Axis and others had to slash prices in a race to the bottom. Each time these companies have reduced pricing, Hikvision reduces it further, to the point that companies have had to cut back staff, R&D and distributing from the huge reduction in profitability.

It is an unfair trading practice, for a government to be a majority owner, provide tens of billions in funding with no payback, pay wages that are 1/4 those of developed countries, and ignore the environment in the manufacturing process, as well as vastly reduced safety regulations that don't adequately protect their workers from poor working conditions. I'm not sure how it should be handled, but if nobody stops China by putting up roadblocks, then they'll just continue as they are currently, and you can continue to enjoy your $229 50" 4K TV.
It may be unfair, but the way these tariffs are being implemented will only make a bad situation worse in other ways. There are consequences and poorly implemented trade policies will blow up in this country's face.

The law of unintended consequences applies here.
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post #21 of 108 Old 04-06-2018, 10:09 AM
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Originally Posted by digital_dilemma View Post
Yes you did. Something about stupidity such and such. Maybe it is. Maybe it isn't. Having worked for a US electronics manufacturer and seeing the predatory price dumping just destroy this country's manufacturing by countries that pay $0.05 - $0.10 on the dollar in wages tells me all I need to know. Example: Hikvision, a six-year old Chinese company owned more than 50% by the Chinese government, is now the world's largest manufacturer of security cameras. By providing the company tens of billions in cash (none paid back), the company decimated worldwide prices, as companies like Hitachi, Sony, Axis and others had to slash prices in a race to the bottom. Each time these companies have reduced pricing, Hikvision reduces it further, to the point that companies have had to cut back staff, R&D and distributing from the huge reduction in profitability.

It is an unfair trading practice, for a government to be a majority owner, provide tens of billions in funding with no payback, pay wages that are 1/4 those of developed countries, and ignore the environment in the manufacturing process, as well as vastly reduced safety regulations that don't adequately protect their workers from poor working conditions. I'm not sure how it should be handled, but if nobody stops China by putting up roadblocks, then they'll just continue as they are currently, and you can continue to enjoy your $229 50" 4K TV.
I didn't say who's stupidity. It's stupidity on both countries. It's a dumb pissing match with people lives and jobs at stack. I also didn't say China doesn't do things that need to be addressed. This is the stupid way to go about it. China is a different system obviously, communist. We are free enterprise, free market. Why lower ourselves when we beat them anyway despite what some dopes say. We were already winning.

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Originally Posted by khurramtm View Post
You're forgetting automation. Any new plant built in the US will be automated to a level where just a few people would be needed to run it. This will take care of cost and not produce enough jobs.

I work in the IT industry and everything is moving to commodity hardware with specialization being moved to software. Similar stuff has happened to TVs where panel manufacturers are far and few and the value add lives in the processing, the software experience etc. The only exception being processors like Sony's X1 but that's a very Japanese thing, to prefer a hardware solution. Perhaps because they have a deep skillset to build them. Don't you think such processing can be tackled by software running on an ARM processor on the TV? In the near future probably.

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All Smart TVs are running generic video processing algorithms and processes via their ARM CPU and GPU. That's also how media player boxes and phones/tablets have been doing it for years. The CPUs used by Sony with their name on it are actually Mediatek chips, which powers their phones and tablets as well.
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Actual live stream video of me watching this thread get waaaaaay too political and lock...

I'd rather see useless comments like this get deleted than political ones.
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China needs American money more than we need Chinese products. Do you remember the "Buy American" requirements in government contracts a few decades back? It worked then.

Is it fair to American companies to have our products marked up 25% when they enter a foreign market - where the same type of products only get marked up 2% entering the US? It's about time someone stepped up and leveled the playing field.

I don't think this will turn into a "trade war" (if it does, depending on how you define "trade war", it won't last long. IMO) this is Trump's way of negotiating. First you "make the threat and show you mean it", then you can negotiate from that stronger position.

Lastly, I would rather pay more for a TV, or undershirt, or whatever, if it means more American companies and workers stay in business.
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No worries, if the price of goods goes up you can just use the extra money from your tax cut

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China needs American money more than we need Chinese products. Do you remember the "Buy American" requirements in government contracts a few decades back? It worked then.

Is it fair to American companies to have our products marked up 25% when they enter a foreign market - where the same type of products only get marked up 2% entering the US? It's about time someone stepped up and leveled the playing field.

I don't think this will turn into a "trade war" (if it does, depending on how you define "trade war", it won't last long. IMO) this is Trump's way of negotiating. First you "make the threat and show you mean it", then you can negotiate from that stronger position.

Lastly, I would rather pay more for a TV, or undershirt, or whatever, if it means more American companies and workers stay in business.
Yeah guess who holds over a trillion dollars of our debt? You don't want to play this game this way. There is a right way to try and get them to play fair, this IS NOT it.

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post #27 of 108 Old 04-06-2018, 10:42 AM
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I'd rather see useless comments like this get deleted than political ones.
That's right, a bunch of AV enthusiasts on an online forum is clearly the best medium to discuss the effects and potential solutions for global trade imbalances and strategies to recover costs of intellectual property theft.

There's a nearly perfect track record of threads referring to policy of any type getting to the point of locking. I've participated before with well-constructed posts supported by facts which are drown out by hundreds of posts filled with hundreds of knee-jerk emotional reactions. So yes....I plan to sit on the sidelines on this one, enjoying the mix of conversation until it eventually (might) locks.

I'll also spare you the details why my company policy prohibits me from taking my laptop or phone into certain Asian countries when traveling internationally. Not turned off....leave it at home and take what essentially amounts to a burner phone with a SIM for that country. And then there's the ransom / kidnapping insurance when going to Mexico - which is always a day trip and never overnight. Good times.
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I'd rather see useless comments like this get deleted than political ones.
Too bad there's not a downvote button.
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I hear some people say they'd rather pay more for goods if it meant American companies and workers stay in business. I guess it's their choice if they want to subsidize someone else's business/job. You may as well think of it as an additional "help out fellow countrymen" tax on top of local property tax, state income tax, federal income tax, payroll tax, sales tax, capital gains & dividend tax, and the estate tax (if you're a lucky idiot child of a multi-millionaire). For me, I don't care at all if the product was made in USA, Canada, Mexico, China, Germany, S. Korea, etc. I only care about two things: quality and price. If it's made by Korean hands instead of German hands, then so be it. Or if it's made by a robot. So long as the price is good and the quality suits my desires. If someone else somewhere doesn't get a job or keep a job, or whatever, then that's absolutely not my problem. So-called "patriotism" doesn't factor into my mind whatsoever. At the end of the day, everyone will need to answer to their bank account whether they like it or not. And as mentioned by others above, robots will be the biggest competition to human jobs instead of humans from other countries. If someone wants to open up a factory in America, be my guest. But don't be surprised when there aren't thousands of work hands on the floor like in Henry Ford's day. Besides, tech hardware manufacturing (like TVs) is not even really a high profit-margin business, especially if the product does not have amazing software attached to it. The real money and the real innovation has mostly been and will continue to be more on the software side for tech products rather than hardware. Imagine someone in India writing a fantastic piece of software, releasing it, and can be sold and downloaded to a computer in Norway in a snap. Also, China doesn't have nearly the labor cost advantage in 2018 as it did 15 years ago (or even 10 years ago for that matter). Especially not the Tier 1 coastal cities or southern cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, or Hong Kong. And also not as much these days with the cities further inland as you go into the west. Last week, the factories were in Michigan and Ohio. Three days ago, they were in China. Today, they're in Vietnam. Tomorrow, they'll be in Bangladesh. And next week, they'll be in Zambia. The world seeks low cost, like water flowing down a mountain and fighting gravity is kind of silly. The world is globalizing. Accept it or starve to death. Your choice. And one last thought about China. You may not like the way China does business or governs, but it's pretty much here to stay. China was the most powerful and economically prosperous civilization for 17 of the last 19 centuries, and did so without western democracy. It's on the way to the biggest comeback in human history. It's going to happen whether you like it or not.
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post #30 of 108 Old 04-06-2018, 03:44 PM
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My tv from Korea
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