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post #4021 of 4969 Old 01-27-2016, 02:29 PM
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Originally Posted by seanbryan View Post
amazon just sent an update saying that "life of pi" uhd bd will be available january 9th.

I wonder if this actually moved up or if their system is just wonky?
2017?
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post #4022 of 4969 Old 01-27-2016, 02:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Tom Bley View Post
2017?
Sorry, February.
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post #4023 of 4969 Old 01-27-2016, 02:49 PM
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Hopefully the other titles will follow suit or at least a closer date than March 1st since the player according to BB is Feb. 12th.
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post #4024 of 4969 Old 01-27-2016, 03:01 PM
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Originally Posted by seanbryan View Post
Amazon just sent an update saying that "Life of Pi" UHD BD will be available February 9th. (Sorry, January was a typo)
I also received the email that LIFE OF PI will arrive on Tuesday, February 9th. The sooner UHD-BD arrives the better -- we can finally get past some of this speculative nonsense.
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post #4025 of 4969 Old 01-27-2016, 04:14 PM
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Apropos of nothing, what a weird early release title. What made Life of Pi amazing was partly the 3D. And it will, of course, be absent on the UHD BluRay.

I'm sure it will still look gorgeous, but for almost anyone who has seen the film in 3D, it will still feel lacking.

To me, Life of Pi/Avatar/Hugo are in the "only in 3D" category. Maybe "The Walk" and "Gravity". Not many others.

How do people who like 3D more than me feel about this?
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There's a saying about "everything in moderation". If only it was applied to well, you know...
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post #4026 of 4969 Old 01-27-2016, 04:32 PM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by seanbryan View Post
Amazon just sent an update saying that "Life of Pi" UHD BD will be available February 9th. (Sorry, January was a typo)

I wonder if this actually moved up or if their system is just wonky?
Amazon is still showing most Fox titles for delivery Mar. 1st, but FoxConnect is showing all of them as shipping Feb. 9th. However, FoxConnect shows them all shipping early in Feb.
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post #4027 of 4969 Old 01-27-2016, 04:43 PM
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Originally Posted by Ron Jones View Post
Amazon is still showing most Fox titles for delivery Mar. 1st, but FoxConnect is showing all of them as shipping Feb. 9th.
Well, then that is even more encouraging.

If Fox Connect is listing all of them now as February 9th, the updated release date info is probably just getting to Amazon in bits and pieces.

Since this is sort of a "soft launch" without an official date announced for an official launch (as far as I'm aware), I guess it's not surprising if they are putting things out earlier if they are ready to go. Hope it works out like that.
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post #4028 of 4969 Old 01-27-2016, 10:07 PM
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anddddddd foxconnect changed their dates back to march 1st around midnight. yippy!

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post #4029 of 4969 Old 01-27-2016, 11:11 PM
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Originally Posted by Ruined View Post
So how does everyone feel about online authentication now being confirmed as a mandatory licensing requirement for all UHDBD players? (see attachment, row6,column2 "AACS Online" on list) Still optional for movie discs, will be title-by-title basis like Cinavia and BD+.
Well, that certainly doesn't seem likely to end up being an advantage that will contribute to a smooth UHD Blu-ray launch.

Mike Boone
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post #4030 of 4969 Old 01-28-2016, 05:21 AM
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Originally Posted by Ruined View Post
So how does everyone feel about online authentication now being confirmed as a mandatory licensing requirement for all UHDBD players? (see attachment, row6,column2 "AACS Online" on list) Still optional for movie discs, will be title-by-title basis like Cinavia and BD+.
You know, and just when I had about convinced myself not to worry about it... I found this interesting thread:
http://forum.blu-ray.com/showthread.php?t=272153

My question is, will there be any labeling to say that a given disc needs online activation?

If I do start buying UHD Blu-ray's I think I will have to very carefully check return policies and make it standard practice to either never connect the player to the internet, or to disconnect it whenever I put a new disc in, and return any that won't play. Hm, I wonder if I could put the player on a vlan and firewall it from everything but firmware updates and streaming services....
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post #4031 of 4969 Old 01-28-2016, 07:28 AM
 
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post
Apropos of nothing, what a weird early release title. What made Life of Pi amazing was partly the 3D. And it will, of course, be absent on the UHD BluRay.

I'm sure it will still look gorgeous, but for almost anyone who has seen the film in 3D, it will still feel lacking.

To me, Life of Pi/Avatar/Hugo are in the "only in 3D" category. Maybe "The Walk" and "Gravity". Not many others.

How do people who like 3D more than me feel about this?
Absolutely.

One clarification though from someone probably more bullish on 3D than Cameron. For me, there are films that move from:

"3D Only!"

to

"2D ....er, ok"

....on a 2nd (or perhaps 3rd) viewing, particularly if you're watching it with someone who has trouble watching 3D given the quality of the 3D ability of the TV/Theater.

BTW, I feel the italicized clarification-clarification I made above is endlessly critical. Especially since the converts from active to passive I've read about (and experienced first hand), and even the strongly voiced converts from passive to LG OLED passive folks like @fafrd .
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post #4032 of 4969 Old 01-28-2016, 09:14 AM
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Originally Posted by wco81 View Post
What is the benefit of connecting your TV or Blu Ray player online again?

If you want Netflix and other streaming services, I'll take my chances with the consoles and something like Apple TV

...none of which will stream 4K content. The Netflix app in my Vizio M75, however, will.

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way before I'd trust anything from Google or from Samsung, Vizio, etc.

To quote The Kinks...

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post #4033 of 4969 Old 01-29-2016, 12:28 AM
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Unhappy

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Originally Posted by JaguarCRO View Post
Short answer: No

Long Answer: Resolution is the least motivating of all the upgraded attributes. In order of my preference:
1) WCG
2) HDR
3) HFR
4) Size
5) Resolution

Personally I think the next successful platform (besides 4K) will actually be VR. But that is another topic for another thread.
JaguarCRO: I definitely agree with you that WCG and HDR are the 2 top factors that can allow people to see a major improvement with UHD Blu-ray over regular Blu-ray, although I'd put HDR at #1 and WCG at #2 . But having worked in sales I know that few consumers tend to buy the higher end models in a brand's line.
The vast majority of consumers tend to buy either the cheapest model in a line, or go 1, or at most 2, price levels above the cheapest.
Well, taking the best selling UHD TV brand, Samsung, as an example, people who currently are buying Samsung UHD TVs from one of Samsung's 3 least expensive price levels, are ending up with UHD TVs that lack decent HDR or WCG capability. And UHD TVs at any price level, that have those capabilities, have only been available for about 7 or 8 months.

So while High Dynamic Range and Wide Color Gamut allow AVS type people who have invested in the right equipment to see large improvements in video quality, those attributes will only play a very minor role in helping UHD Blu-ray to have a successful launch.
And last summer, I heard on National Public Radio that for year 2014, Netflix was already taking in $6.13 with its streaming division, for every $1 that it's DVD/Blu-ray division was generating. That NPR radio segment even mentioned that people working in Netflix's DVD/BD division were being treated like poor step children because Netflix is not extending the extremely generous family leave benefits to those folks that it is offering to those who work in its streaming division.
Believe me, as a guy who has bought about 210 BDs in the last 15 months I'm not really happy thinking that physical disc has a quite limited future. (that's why I've bought so many BDs lately)
But with ever improving compression methods and internet speeds growing, I think streaming will put an end to the physical disc business by considerably less than a decade from now. Actually, at the rate that most people are abandoning discs, IMO, it will be hard for anyone to make a profit making and selling discs 4 to 6 years from now.

Mike Boone

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post #4034 of 4969 Old 01-29-2016, 08:33 AM
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And last summer, I heard on National Public Radio that for year 2014, Netflix was already taking in $6.13 with its streaming division, for every $1 that it's DVD/Blu-ray division was generating.
They forgot to mention one important aspect, profit. Revenue - cost = profit and in that area disc >>> than streaming.

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Meanwhile, net income dropped 48% to $43 million on revenue of $1.67 billion [for streaming], compared with income of $83 million on revenue of $1.3 billion a year ago. Netflix attributed the decline in part to foreign exchange rates and ongoing global expansion.

Finally, Netflix’s oft-ignored legacy by-mail disc rental service generated $80 million in operating income (52.7% contribution margin) on revenue of $151 million and a base of 4.9 million subs. It generated $179.4 million in revenue on a base of 5.7 million subs a year ago.
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post #4035 of 4969 Old 01-29-2016, 09:17 AM
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Originally Posted by sarahb75 View Post
JaguarCRO: I definitely agree with you that WCG and HDR are the 2 top factors that can allow people to see a major improvement with UHD Blu-ray over regular Blu-ray, although I'd put HDR at #1 and WCG at #2 . But having worked in sales I know that few consumers tend to buy the higher end models in a brand's line.
The vast majority of consumers tend to buy either the cheapest model in a line, or go 1, or at most 2, price levels above the cheapest.
Well, taking the best selling UHD TV brand, Samsung, as an example, people who currently are buying Samsung UHD TVs from one of Samsung's 3 least expensive price levels, are ending up with UHD TVs that lack decent HDR or WCG capability. And UHD TVs at any price level, that have those capabilities, have only been available for about 7 or 8 months.

So while High Dynamic Range and Wide Color Gamut allow AVS type people who have invested in the right equipment to see large improvements in video quality, those attributes will only play a very minor role in helping UHD Blu-ray to have a successful launch.
And last summer, I heard on National Public Radio that for year 2014, Netflix was already taking in $6.13 with its streaming division, for every $1 that it's DVD/Blu-ray division was generating. That NPR radio segment even mentioned that people working in Netflix's DVD/BD division were being treated like poor step children because Netflix is not extending the extremely generous family leave benefits to those folks that it is offering to those who work in its streaming division.
Believe me, as a guy who has bought about 210 BDs in the last 15 months I'm not really happy thinking that physical disc has a quite limited future. (that's why I've bought so many BDs lately)
But with ever improving compression methods and internet speeds growing, I think streaming will put an end to the physical disc business by considerably less than a decade from now. Actually, at the rate that most people are abandoning discs, IMO, it will be hard for anyone to make a profit making and selling discs 4 to 6 years from now.

Mike Boone
We are conflating 2 things here. Your original question was will 8K have a detrimental impact on 4K. For that the answer is No (and I don't think you provided any info to the contrary).

One big thing you forgot to mention about UHD Blu-Ray is that Hollywood needs Retail Advertisements. They need something that will grab your attention at the Best Buy, Target, Walmart, etc so that you look and eventually purchase their product. (It is okay if you don't pick up the UHD Blu-Ray or DVD and decide to get the Streaming Rental, but they will make less money on the Streaming Rental)

Ideally they want you to spend the most money as possible on their movie. So this is what I believe is the order of the most profitable product categories for movies.
1) Cinema when movie is first released
2) UHD or BluRay *
3) DVD *
4) Pay-per-View
5) Streaming Rental
6) Pay Movie Channel or TV Broadcast (Now more likely to be Subscription streaming service like Amazon Prime or Netflix)

* 2 & 3 are special products because that continue to advertise the movie and they are a small cost adder to enable 4-6. In fact in most cases with the exception of the small physical costs of reproduction they are almost completely paid for already.

So even if #2 only records 5-10% of a movies Revenue, it actually encourages more purchases of 4,5 & 6 and so its actual contribution to the product is much bigger than its direct Revenue.
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post #4036 of 4969 Old 01-29-2016, 10:10 AM
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Interesting view on the matter.
Take away the physical media and you take away advertising and a major profit for the studios _ even if the sales of discs are declining.

So in the end, with out physical media and only streaming, the studios won't be making much money _ or at least not as much as them selling the actual media.

Maybe what will happen is that the studios will "up" their royalty cost to regain their losses once the media is gone ???
People will end up paying near physical media prices for streaming ???
That'll hit the average Joe cost wise, who doesn't care about video (or audio) quality.
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post #4037 of 4969 Old 01-29-2016, 11:36 AM
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Advertising for discs costs money. The idea that selling discs is some sort of magical ROI conjurer because it helps support streaming is fascinating, but I doubt it's borne out by the data. Get rid of the whole disc apparatus and studios can directly advertising streaming where it matters -- on phones/tablets/PCs/TVs.

There's a saying about "everything in moderation". If only it was applied to well, you know...
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post #4038 of 4969 Old 01-29-2016, 11:55 AM
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Advertising for discs costs money. The idea that selling discs is some sort of magical ROI conjurer because it helps support streaming is fascinating, but I doubt it's borne out by the data. Get rid of the whole disc apparatus and studios can directly advertising streaming where it matters -- on phones/tablets/PCs/TVs.
Lucky for them that everyone is not like me _ I don't own a tablet, my phone is old ( there is no advertising on it) I don't watch TV (except for one show, and when that ends, that's it for TV), and I just don't pay attention to the adds on my PC.
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post #4039 of 4969 Old 01-29-2016, 11:56 AM
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I'd be thrilled if Netflix carried UHD Blu Ray discs.

Not likely but still thrilled.

Maybe some boutique service will try to fill a niche for UHD BD rentals.
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post #4040 of 4969 Old 01-29-2016, 12:11 PM
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Originally Posted by wco81 View Post
Maybe some boutique service will try to fill a niche for UHD BD rentals.
Here's one: http://www.store-3d-blurayrental.com...ory-s/1868.htm
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post #4041 of 4969 Old 01-29-2016, 12:26 PM
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Originally Posted by JaguarCRO View Post
We are conflating 2 things here. Your original question was will 8K have a detrimental impact on 4K. For that the answer is No (and I don't think you provided any info to the contrary).

One big thing you forgot to mention about UHD Blu-Ray is that Hollywood needs Retail Advertisements. They need something that will grab your attention at the Best Buy, Target, Walmart, etc so that you look and eventually purchase their product. (It is okay if you don't pick up the UHD Blu-Ray or DVD and decide to get the Streaming Rental, but they will make less money on the Streaming Rental)

Ideally they want you to spend the most money as possible on their movie. So this is what I believe is the order of the most profitable product categories for movies.
1) Cinema when movie is first released
2) UHD or BluRay *
3) DVD *
4) Pay-per-View
5) Streaming Rental
6) Pay Movie Channel or TV Broadcast (Now more likely to be Subscription streaming service like Amazon Prime or Netflix)

* 2 & 3 are special products because that continue to advertise the movie and they are a small cost adder to enable 4-6. In fact in most cases with the exception of the small physical costs of reproduction they are almost completely paid for already.

So even if #2 only records 5-10% of a movies Revenue, it actually encourages more purchases of 4,5 & 6 and so its actual contribution to the product is much bigger than its direct Revenue.
I agree that the presence of physical media can and has helped generate sales of digitally delivered content. Of course, the reverse is also true. I don't typically purchase or rent digital content directly from digital retailers. But, I do maintain UV and iTunes libraries obtained via. redemption codes included with the purchase of physical media. As a result, I get emails from Vudu, Apple, and Disney on a frequent basis, advertising new releases and/or sales on existing titles. I am fairly certain that I am not the only person who has gone out and bought a movie on disc (or ordered one from Amazon) that I might not have purchased had I not received that email.

I find it odd that some people seem to believe that physical media and digitally delivered content are locked in a battle to the death; that there can ultimately be only one victorious format. I feel the opposite. I believe that we all (consumers, retailers, and content creators) benefit from having both formats available. I would even go so far as to say that, at this point, they have an almost symbiotic relationship.

One last point... When comparing revenue or profits from various formats, I think it's important that we separate digital sales from digital rentals from subscription based streaming. Because the pricing and costs involved in providing content thru these different channels is vastly different. For example, the price to purchase a movie from Vudu, Amazon Instant Video, iTunes, etc. is typically higher than the price to purchase physical media (on average). Likewise, the streaming rental price from these providers is typically higher than what you would pay to rent a physical disc from Redbox. But, unless you only watch a couple movies/TV episodes a month then the monthly/yearly subscription for Netflix, Amazon Prime, Hulu Plus, etc. is substantially cheaper than both.
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post #4042 of 4969 Old 01-29-2016, 02:46 PM
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Originally Posted by seanbryan View Post
Nice to have the option but they need to make it a all you can eat deal, like Netflix.

$7.99 and that presumably doesn't include shipping?

I'd pay up to $20 a month for 2 or 3 discs out at a time service.
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post #4043 of 4969 Old 01-29-2016, 03:12 PM
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I find it odd that some people seem to believe that physical media and digitally delivered content are locked in a battle to the death; that there can ultimately be only one victorious format.
They're not locked in a battle at all. A battle implies some sort of uncertainty of outcome. Physical media sales fall every single year. Period. Rentals are collapsing. Period.

Digitally delivered content (of all types) is exploding upwards. Period.
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I feel the opposite. I believe that we all (consumers, retailers, and content creators) benefit from having both formats available. I would even go so far as to say that, at this point, they have an almost symbiotic relationship.
Sorry, this isn't the shark and the remora. This is the MP3 and the CD. It's all-you-can-eat streaming and the digital single. One is absolutely, positively killing the other. While we might all benefit from having both formats in video (certainly a clearer value than music), there isn't symbiosis. Digital is killing physical media. It's not a battle. It's evolution.
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One last point... When comparing revenue or profits from various formats, I think it's important that we separate digital sales from digital rentals from subscription based streaming. Because the pricing and costs involved in providing content thru these different channels is vastly different. For example, the price to purchase a movie from Vudu, Amazon Instant Video, iTunes, etc. is typically higher than the price to purchase physical media (on average).
That's a combination of two things (1) a decision by the studios and (2) first-sale rights allowing resale of physical media. The studios can fix (1) whenever they want. They can essentially eliminate physical media almost overnight when they want. The only reason they don't want is that there is still some value to them in having physical media. That value declines by double-digit percentages every year, however, with no signs of abating.
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Likewise, the streaming rental price from these providers is typically higher than what you would pay to rent a physical disc from Redbox.
The studios hate Redbox and have spent years trying to kill it. They can't because of first-sale rights so they grudgingly have come to accept it, especially post Blockbuster. Redbox, incidentally, is dying. Not in a pancreatic cancer kind of trajectory but in a prostate cancer kind of trajectory (look it up if you don't get the metaphor). Also, when gas was $4/gallon, I wonder how much cheaper Redbox really was than streaming, especially given more than 2/3 of Redbox rentals are DVD and so the fairest compare is SD streaming, which is often just $3.99.
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But, unless you only watch a couple movies/TV episodes a month then the monthly/yearly subscription for Netflix, Amazon Prime, Hulu Plus, etc. is substantially cheaper than both.
And cheaper usually wins, which isn't good news for the "selling of discs" business.

A reminder of some stats on the disc business:

2011: $9.0 billion
2012: $8.5 billion
2013: $7.8 billion
2014: $6.9 billion
2015: $6.1 billion

That's 1/3 gone in 5 years. Double digit losses are now expected.

Rental (all kinds, for physical media) is down from $5 billion to $3 billion over the same span. In other words, worse.

All digital is up from $4 billion to $8.9 billion over the same time span. So let's do a quick-and-dirty, yes? Discs and rentals down $5 billion. Digital up $5 billion.

Symbiosis? To more or less quote from one of the greatest movies ever made, "I do not think that word means what you think it means."

There's a saying about "everything in moderation". If only it was applied to well, you know...
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post #4044 of 4969 Old 01-29-2016, 05:22 PM
 
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To more or less quote from one of the greatest movies ever made, "I do not think that word means what you think it means."
LOL! Can you believe that was Mandy Patinkin?????

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post #4045 of 4969 Old 01-29-2016, 06:34 PM
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post
They're not locked in a battle at all. A battle implies some sort of uncertainty of outcome. Physical media sales fall every single year. Period. Rentals are collapsing. Period.

Digitally delivered content (of all types) is exploding upwards. Period.


Sorry, this isn't the shark and the remora. This is the MP3 and the CD. It's all-you-can-eat streaming and the digital single. One is absolutely, positively killing the other. While we might all benefit from having both formats in video (certainly a clearer value than music), there isn't symbiosis. Digital is killing physical media. It's not a battle. It's evolution.


That's a combination of two things (1) a decision by the studios and (2) first-sale rights allowing resale of physical media. The studios can fix (1) whenever they want. They can essentially eliminate physical media almost overnight when they want. The only reason they don't want is that there is still some value to them in having physical media. That value declines by double-digit percentages every year, however, with no signs of abating.


The studios hate Redbox and have spent years trying to kill it. They can't because of first-sale rights so they grudgingly have come to accept it, especially post Blockbuster. Redbox, incidentally, is dying. Not in a pancreatic cancer kind of trajectory but in a prostate cancer kind of trajectory (look it up if you don't get the metaphor). Also, when gas was $4/gallon, I wonder how much cheaper Redbox really was than streaming, especially given more than 2/3 of Redbox rentals are DVD and so the fairest compare is SD streaming, which is often just $3.99.


And cheaper usually wins, which isn't good news for the "selling of discs" business.

A reminder of some stats on the disc business:

2011: $9.0 billion
2012: $8.5 billion
2013: $7.8 billion
2014: $6.9 billion
2015: $6.1 billion

That's 1/3 gone in 5 years. Double digit losses are now expected.

Rental (all kinds, for physical media) is down from $5 billion to $3 billion over the same span. In other words, worse.

All digital is up from $4 billion to $8.9 billion over the same time span. So let's do a quick-and-dirty, yes? Discs and rentals down $5 billion. Digital up $5 billion.

Symbiosis? To more or less quote from one of the greatest movies ever made, "I do not think that word means what you think it means."
I don't debate your statistics to date. However, I strongly disagree with your conclusions. You seem to believe that the double digit declines will continue or even accelerate until physical media sales are zero. Likewise, you seem to imply that streaming will continue to grow at a rapid pace, equaling what streaming + physical media combined currently bring in, in less than 5 years. I just don't see that happening. I am willing to bet that in the next year or two, sales of physical media will start to level out. Meanwhile, the rate of growth for streaming will begin to slow. It's inevitable. You can't go higher than 100% market penetration (something Netflix feels it is already close to achieving in the U.S.). You will never convince everyone to give up physical media, entirely. Even if forced to do so, (should content providers choose to stop selling physical media), you will not convince all consumers to spend the same amount of money they would have on physical media, on digital delivery instead.

Bottom line is that both physical media and digital delivery are here to stay. If the studios didn't believe that they wouldn't have agreed to invest in a new format at this point. There is room for both, just as there is room for both fast food and expensive sit-down restaurants.
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post #4046 of 4969 Old 01-29-2016, 06:46 PM
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There will always be psychical media. Shouldn't Cd's be dead? I guess you can tell the 121 million sold this year that they are all idiots lol.

Its still huge business selling discs and will be for quite a while yet.

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post #4047 of 4969 Old 01-29-2016, 07:02 PM
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Originally Posted by wco81 View Post
$7.99 and that presumably doesn't include shipping?

I'd pay up to $20 a month for 2 or 3 discs out at a time service.
It includes shipping. They have subscription plans and their 2 at a time with up to 10 discs per month is $26 per month.

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post #4048 of 4969 Old 01-29-2016, 08:38 PM
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I don't debate your statistics to date. However, I strongly disagree with your conclusions. You seem to believe that the double digit declines will continue or even accelerate until physical media sales are zero.
I'm confident double digit declines will continue (more or less). That doesn't mean sales get to zero soon because 10% of a smaller number implies a slower decline unless the percentages grow, which I'm not projecting.
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Likewise, you seem to imply that streaming will continue to grow at a rapid pace, equaling what streaming + physical media combined currently bring in, in less than 5 years.
Again, not what I'm saying. Streaming will continue to grow (mostly Netflix/Amazon Prime/new services that haven't launched, less so single-purchase/rental which will also grow, albeit more slowly). But I think it's pretty naive to believe to believe that physical media has "legs". You should really look at the collapse of physical music sales (outside the LP nostalgia realm, which actually remains tiny... and see below). There is a high likelihood that the decline of DVD will accelerate in the coming years. There is no reason to believe BluRay will supplant people that begin to exit DVD. And none of those DVD people are UHD BluRay customers.
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[
I just don't see that happening. I am willing to bet that in the next year or two, sales of physical media will start to level out.
Let's take that bet. You're calling for what, exactly?
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Meanwhile, the rate of growth for streaming will begin to slow. It's inevitable. You can't go higher than 100% market penetration (something Netflix feels it is already close to achieving in the U.S.).
It does not believe that at all. And it's actually at about 1/3 of US households right now, so it's really nowhere near the cap. Netflix has a strong ability to cut down on account sharing, raise prices and get more content. Never mind that Amazon has 40+ million Prime households, the vast majority of whom probably don't even realize there is a free video service.
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You will never convince everyone to give up physical media, entirely. Even if forced to do so, (should content providers choose to stop selling physical media), you will not convince all consumers to spend the same amount of money they would have on physical media, on digital delivery instead.
Right, which has hurt the music business to a point, but only to a point. It's smaller, but it's also different. And eventually more and more people will sign up for Spotify and Apple Music and the like.
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Bottom line is that both physical media and digital delivery are here to stay. If the studios didn't believe that they wouldn't have agreed to invest in a new format at this point. There is room for both, just as there is room for both fast food and expensive sit-down restaurants.
The studios have done a lot of things that don't work. There is "room" for physical media, but it's nothing short of head-in-the-sand to look at what's happening and pretend physical media isn't dying. How much would it take for you to believe it's dying if 1/3 isn't enough? 1/2? 2/3? Because those milestones are coming. Certainly within 5 years we can bet that physical media will be below 1/2 its peak. Quite likely it will be down 2/3, but we'll see. And let's fast forward to 2025. What portion of millennials do you think will ever buy discs? 5%? 10%? It sure as heck ain't 50%, yet something like 80% of Gen X has bought a DVD, maybe more.

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Originally Posted by N8DOGG View Post
There will always be psychical media. Shouldn't Cd's be dead? I guess you can tell the 121 million sold this year that they are all idiots lol.

Its still huge business selling discs and will be for quite a while yet.
Please look at the chart I'm linking below. It's the music business. You can see CD has very nearly re-traced its entire curve from zero back to zero.



Inflation adjusted, CD is down from $18B to less than $2B.



As for that exciting 121 million, here's the past 15 years again....

2000: 730M
2001: 712M (-18)
2002: 650M (-62)
2003: 636M (-14)
2004: 651M (+15)
2005: 599M (-52)
2006: 553M (-46)
2007: 449M (-104) !!!
2008: 361M (-88)
2009: 295M (-66)
2010: 240M (-55)
2011: 224M (-16)
2012: 193M (-31)
2013: 165M (-28)
2014: 141M (-24)
2015: 121M (-20)

Now, I know what you're going to say: "See the declines are slowing." But are they? Here's the last 7 years in %ages.

19.5%, 18.3%, 18.6%, 6.7%, 13.9%, 14.5%, 14.5%, 14.3%.

So the declines were worse before, but they seems to have settled into a pattern of remarkably negative consistency that is evaporating about 1/7th of the market every year. The cool thing is that if the trend continues, even 10 years from now there's a market that someone might well satisfy. Of course, that market could be as small as 25M units or so. That's about $500M even if prices get pushed up. That's 4M Spotify subs by a time when the U.S. alone likely will have 50M or so subscription music customers (if not more, though expect family plans).

So while on the one hand I don't think the CD business necessarily goes away, I think it's easy to do a sensitivity analysis on these curves and figure out how little it matters 5 or 10 years out. And in no scenario can it be said to matter much.

Physical movie media is, fortunately, bigger than physical music right now. But it's arguably more vulnerable to more rapid declines. CD music still is state of the art. DVD movies are already not. BluRay soon won't be. Most of those customers will never migrate to UHD BluRay.

None of this means UHD BluRay can't carve out a niche, but it's a niche that is far more precarious and far less a given than many of you believe. Have you shopped for Laserdiscs lately? Or your favorite movie on VHS? Or an 8-Track? Formats die. Lots of them.

CD had close to two decades to grow before it started to die. DVD had a solid decade plus. BluRay had maybe 5 years before it started to decline. The times they are a changin'.
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post #4049 of 4969 Old 01-29-2016, 10:42 PM
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has the puff run out of the uhd blu-ray already…amazon is already saying the 1st mar release is maybe not the case ?

and if you look at release dates…you will see after the odd 10 discs in mar…thats it ? nothing for any months for the rest of the year ? nothing else planned ? seems kinda odd for what is a newly announced format. why are people going to invest of there is nothing to follow a initial 10 discs to be released ?

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post #4050 of 4969 Old 01-29-2016, 11:01 PM
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post

None of this means UHD BluRay can't carve out a niche, but it's a niche that is far more precarious and far less a given than many of you believe. Have you shopped for Laserdiscs lately? Or your favorite movie on VHS? Or an 8-Track? Formats die. Lots of them.

CD had close to two decades to grow before it started to die. DVD had a solid decade plus. BluRay had maybe 5 years before it started to decline. The times they are a changin'.
I don't think it's quite fair or the same comparison to what DVD's were to VHS, and 8-Track was to CD's _ as is streaming is to Blu-ray and UHD Blu-ray.

VHS and 8-Track died because the DVD's and CD's that replaced them didn't ware out, plus the magnetic heads on the machines didn't need monthly cleaning ( a real pain in the ass).
There was such a huge jump in convenience, reliability, storage capabilities etc. that even the average consumer (non audio/videophile) could clearly see the advantages and those formats (not talking about laser disc) died very quickly.

The argument between streaming and UHD/Blu-ray is more of a subtle one _ there is no clear choice (at least not at this point), both technologies have their short comings and this is why it may take some time for either one to dominate (win out over the other).

Once streaming becomes as reliable and as perfect (for the lack of a better word) as physical media, then the physical media will disappear very quickly.
What needs to happen is a reliable internet connection (pretty much 100% reliable) and enough band width to carry the load so there is no pixelation, audio drop outs etc.
These things can be seen by the average person and this is why streaming is not going to kill physical media off as quickly as it was with DVD and CD with VHS and 8-Track.

If I could save a "streamed" movie on a hard drive; to get around the pixelation and drop-outs _ I could live with that and that technology is already here.
The problem is still bandwidth _ how long would it take to download a 2 hour UHD Blu-ray _ a very long time _ 24 hours or more and that would be compressed _ some "jaggies" subtle pixelation, some posterizing maybe. Ask a Sony Puck owner _ and that's a small market.
But those artifacts are for videophiles to pick at, the biggest problem is bandwidth and heavy internet traffic _ imagine if a movie is released like the latest Star Wars one on UHD and everyone in the US started downloading it all at once....
I saved a short 4 minute 4K YouTube video with no audio and it took almost an hour !
There are ways to help with this, but the amount of downloading would overwhelm the system even if it were broken over days, or even weeks.
In your world where there is no physical media, I can't see streaming being a viable alternative _ at least not with today's technology.

It may happen, but the more I think about, the practicality of streaming for the globes entire population (zero physical media), I just can't see it happening in 5 years or even 10 years.
It will be a slow death for physical media and certainly not in the way of VHS and 8-Track.
But then again, I don't have to look very far for a VHS player and tapes. 8-Track is another matter...
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Last edited by JeffR1; 01-29-2016 at 11:51 PM.
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