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post #2161 of 2972 Old 10-15-2019, 11:58 AM
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Originally Posted by BiggAW View Post
I think it's less of a bandwidth issue, and more of a business model issue. There's not business model for 4k delivered OTA. I predict the rise of gobs of 720p or 1080p diginets.
Well, it's both. The entire 6 MHz channel can support a bitrate of about 26 Mbps on ATSC 3.0 with the signal engineered to cover the same footprint as an ATSC 1.0 signal. If two stations are sharing that equally, that leaves them with 13 Mbps each, which is maybe just barely enough to do a (slightly bitstarved) single 4K channel but nothing else. No subchannels.

Only instances I can imagine where we might see OTA 4K broadcasts would be select live sports. Imagine two broadcasters who are sharing a 3.0 tower. Maybe they have a deal where the broadcaster carrying the 4K game compensates the other to temporarily buy some of their bandwidth. And at the same time, one or both broadcasters might have to temporarily suspend broadcast of one or more of their subchannels while the game airs. But doesn't this scenario only make sense if the increased ad revenue that would be drawn in from broadcasting the game in 4K (vs. 1080p) more than offsets the lost ad revenue from the suspended subchannels and/or the compensation that is given to the other broadcaster to buy their bandwidth?
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post #2162 of 2972 Old 10-15-2019, 01:15 PM
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Yeah. I think we're on the cusp of a boom in 4K HDR streaming content thanks to the pending launches of Apple TV+, Disney+, HBO Max, and Discovery's forthcoming OTT SVOD (which will be the new exclusive home of BBC nature docs like the Planet Earth series). And Hulu is expanding the availability of their 4K content now too (although they still don't offer anything in HDR). It's streaming that will continue to be the main place to watch 4K HDR and that will never change.

So, sure, TV manufacturers will want to make sure they have apps for all those 4K-enabled streaming services on their 4K TVs. Having ATSC 3.0 tuners in their sets will be a nice additional bullet point to add to their feature list but I don't see it play a huge role in selling additional sets.
The way these streaming services are spending money on securing content, maybe one of them will bid on 4K streaming rights to NFL or NBA games. NFL and NBA would probably expect a huge windfall but maybe the networks will cede streaming rights in return for lower rights fees on their games broadcasts. So the overall value of the next TV contracts may not be much higher than the current deals.

If they pull that off and viewers can subscribe directly to these games packages, it will severely weaken local stations and cable TV systems. But they can't price it more than $10 a month, which of course is a far cry from what they try to get for Sunday Ticket.

I don't need to view all the games. Just the 2 or 3 which are broadcast into each market every Sunday, the TNF and MNF games and Red Zone Network. Since they're live sports, let them have ads for the games broadcasts, maybe even thrown in NFL Network and sell ads for that. Red Zone would still be commercial-free.

The NBA package would be all the TNT and ESPN national games, Inside the NBA, NBA TV, again for $10 a month during the season.

The RSN broadcasts of local NBA games could be another package. They're the least likely to have 4K cameras and production equipment.
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post #2163 of 2972 Old 10-15-2019, 01:54 PM
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Good to hear Tivo will record these sub channels.

So the guide displays all the programming on these sub channels?

Of course cable systems won't carry all these channels but you need solid OTA reception?
Even my HD TiVos from 2004 recorded the sub-channels back then. They replaced my computer solutions I had used from 2001 to 2004 to record the OTA ATSC channels.

I just wish the HD from OTA channels today looked like they did in 2001. My OTA HD recordings from 2001 to 2004 put to shame anything from OTA in the DC area now. Or on FiOS or Comcast cable now.
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post #2164 of 2972 Old 10-15-2019, 04:31 PM
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... that would be drawn in from broadcasting the game in 4K (vs. 1080p) more than offsets the lost ad revenue from the suspended subchannels and/or the compensation that is given to the other broadcaster to buy their bandwidth?
What do crooked Lawyers, ad's for plastic pasta cookers, junk HDTV antennas … bring in on the diginets?

The local station has the option of selling their own ad's replacing those commercials. I have seen glitches when a 1/2 second or more of the original ad's has not been eliminated.

If the local station is not replacing the original ad's then the money lost is very very small and your point is very valid.

Note: My latest laptop purchased included a 4K screen, that screen upgrade was accepted by me but not looked for or required at all.

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post #2165 of 2972 Old 10-16-2019, 07:39 AM
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You don't think that Samsung, LG, Sony and others are not going to be waving ad dollars at the stations so they can sell 4K viewers their next 4K (or 8K) TV?
A few ad dollars aren't enough to cause the stations to totally re-think their OTA bandwidth usage. I don't think there will ever be widespread 4K OTA as there is no business case for it. The business case for ATSC 3.0, if there is one, is to deliver more subchannels, some in HD, and to combine transmitters. The DirecTV 4k is never going to go much of anywhere, as DirecTV's market is skewing rural and older, which is generally the opposite of the market for 4k. Some live sports may be the exception to that rule, particularly in the Midwest where AT&T is the ILEC in many areas.
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post #2166 of 2972 Old 10-16-2019, 11:02 AM
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Originally Posted by BiggAW View Post
A few ad dollars aren't enough to cause the stations to totally re-think their OTA bandwidth usage. I don't think there will ever be widespread 4K OTA as there is no business case for it. The business case for ATSC 3.0, if there is one, is to deliver more subchannels, some in HD, and to combine transmitters. The DirecTV 4k is never going to go much of anywhere, as DirecTV's market is skewing rural and older, which is generally the opposite of the market for 4k. Some live sports may be the exception to that rule, particularly in the Midwest where AT&T is the ILEC in many areas.
We'll see. I recall around 2001 I made a prediction here that in a couple years we would have HD consumer camcorders and there were scoffs. In the summer of 2003 I bought my first consumer camcorder, a JVC. I had seen it at JVC's presentation at the Mandalay Bay during CES that year.
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post #2167 of 2972 Old 10-17-2019, 09:30 AM
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Looks like Brazil is following Germany and China in exploring 5G broadcast TV:

https://www.tvtechnology.com/news/br...t-transmission
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post #2168 of 2972 Old 10-19-2019, 04:51 PM
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China
Well, it looks like we won't have to deal with this monstrosity appearing in the North American market
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post #2169 of 2972 Old 10-21-2019, 12:47 PM
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Well, it looks like we won't have to deal with this monstrosity appearing in the North American market
I don't think multicast broadcast TV over 5G is dependent on Huawei technology. (It's mainly being pushed by German firms, I believe.) So I don't see any reason why it couldn't be implemented here in the US, assuming broadcasters here were interested in it. But I don't think they are. Instead, they'll push ATSC 3.0 and try to use 5G-related buzzwords to make it sound relevant.
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post #2170 of 2972 Old 10-21-2019, 03:54 PM
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Realizing that many of you here are industry insiders working for media companies, broadcasters or equipment distributors, I was wondering if expectations for widespread adoption of ATSC 3.0 by the general public are exaggerated.

Could ATSC 3.0 end up failing as a business proposition due to public indifference, even pushback by viewers who reject ATSC 3.0 for one reason or another, or intellectual-property disputes between content providers, local stations, or even hardware manufacturers?

Recalling a phrase from a web site dedicated to a long-obsolete technology, "New and improved don't necessarily mean the same thing".
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post #2171 of 2972 Old 10-21-2019, 04:25 PM
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I don't think multicast broadcast TV over 5G is dependent on Huawei technology. (It's mainly being pushed by German firms, I believe.) So I don't see any reason why it couldn't be implemented here in the US, assuming broadcasters here were interested in it. But I don't think they are. Instead, they'll push ATSC 3.0 and try to use 5G-related buzzwords to make it sound relevant.
If 5G lives up to the hype (big if) it would just make OTA and broadcasters less relevant. IT would just make streaming more attractive, allowing people to consume more streaming video without the hobbled video streaming that carriers serve up.
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post #2172 of 2972 Old 10-22-2019, 12:46 PM
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If 5G lives up to the hype (big if) it would just make OTA and broadcasters less relevant. IT would just make streaming more attractive, allowing people to consume more streaming video without the hobbled video streaming that carriers serve up.
Well, yes, but you're thinking of 5G/internet and OTA broadcasting as two different things. What's being explored in some countries is a way to let broadcasters use 5G wireless signals as the means by which they broadcast their channel. So instead of OTA TV having a completely different technical standard (e.g. ATSC 3.0 or DVB-T2), it would really just be a standard form of multicast streaming (as Comcast and AT&T do on their IPTV cable TV systems), delivered via 5G wireless. In this system, OTA broadcasting would just be a subset of the overall internet.
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post #2173 of 2972 Old 10-22-2019, 01:24 PM
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I was watching CNBC this morning and they had on an analyst talking about the streaming market.

He said broadcast ratings are dropping 16% a year and has been for 5 years and the size of the decrease is increasing every year.

Said something about budgets for shows on broadcast networks declining. Implication was clear, all the money was being spent by streaming services -- at least until there's a great consolidation.

He cited two other interesting numbers that Netflix costs about 17 cents to the subscribers while basic cable costs 28 cents and it just goes upwards for other streaming services and HBO. So it's probably some amortized figure for programming costs given the sheer volume of content on Netflix.

If the spending on show development keeps swinging from broadcast to streaming, the broadcast networks' decline will only accelerate, it seems.
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post #2174 of 2972 Old 10-22-2019, 06:43 PM
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I don't mean to be negative and certainly don't doubt what you heard, but this sounds a bit dubious to me.
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CNBC ... had on an analyst talking about the streaming market.
Who does this "analyst" work for? It's impossible to evaluate what he said with no understanding of his possible motivations.
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He said broadcast ratings are dropping 16% a year and has been for 5 years and the size of the decrease is increasing every year.
OK, so if the size of the decrease increased every year, did the size of the decrease start at 16% or end at that level? I strongly suspect the latter, because otherwise, all local TV stations would already be bankrupt. I don't doubt that streaming has been increasingly cutting into TV station ratings, but sounds to me like this was worded to exaggerate the problem as much as possible.
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He cited two other interesting numbers that Netflix costs about 17 cents to the subscribers while basic cable costs 28 cents and it just goes upwards for other streaming services and HBO. So it's probably some amortized figure for programming costs given the sheer volume of content on Netflix.
17 or 28 cents per what? Per show? Per hour? Per GB? Without context it's impossible to put that statement into perspective.

But regardless, if the implication was that folks are switching from cable to Netflix to save 11 cents (28 - 17) per (something), what about OTA? Last I checked it costs about 0 cents, per any unit of measurement you choose. Wouldn't folks be even more motivated to save 17 cents than to save 11?

Of course, it's not an apples-to-apples comparison. Streaming offers convenience that traditional linear TV can't provide, at least without a DVR. And the only DVR most folks can name is TiVo, which has significant costs of its own. Still, it's really hard to make heads or tails out of this info.
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post #2175 of 2972 Old 10-22-2019, 06:56 PM
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CNBC site has the video of the interview available for its Pro members, meaning you have to pay some subscription for some of their content.

It's Goldman Sachs analyst Heath Terry.

I believe he said it ended at 16% decline.

He was mostly there to recommend buying Netflix stock. So that recommendation is premised on ratings declining on the networks, leading to decreased budgets for developing shows as well as the sheer mass of content Netflix has accumulated.

I would guess per hour but who knows. Anyways it's not a widely circulated number so people aren't doing that kind of calculation. They just know Netflix has a lot of shows. They won't know until they subscribe and watch how many of those shows and movies are worth watching.
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post #2176 of 2972 Old 10-24-2019, 08:58 AM
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My understanding is that the initial roll-out of 3.0 is coming next year - I expect this would include televisions with built in tuners? I'm in the market to buy a TV this year but at this stage I can't justify buying one with a tuner that will be outdated in a few months.

The lack of news from device makers is fairly concerning - what is the impulse for broadcasters to migrate to the new standard if there is no means for viewership. And if there is no viewership, what is the impulse for device makers to include an ATSC 3.0 tuner?

Does anyone know how ATSC 3.0 has been rolled out into televisions in South Korea, given that ATSC 3.0 is live there?
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post #2177 of 2972 Old 10-24-2019, 09:13 AM
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Interesting article.

https://tvnewscheck.com/article/top-...on-3-0-payoff/

- Trip
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post #2178 of 2972 Old 10-24-2019, 09:41 AM
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So they claim they will launch in top 40 markets next year but are keeping the details secret, won't identify many of the stations. Not even ATSC 3.0 vendors know who they are and only some handful of stations have gotten 3.0 licenses.

Vapor!

Sounds like no major commitments from networks. In fact:

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While NBC and Fox were part of the NAB announcement and are currently working with Pearl TV members in the Phoenix Model Market, neither CBS nor ABC has publicly expressed any support for 3.0. And the cable industry has also recently expressed opposition to the new standard.
I thought all the networks had input or some kind of involvement into the development of ATSC 3.0.

Sounding like this is mainly a Sinclair thing right now.
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post #2179 of 2972 Old 10-24-2019, 10:53 AM
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Wow. The roadmap sounds pretty underwhelming -- meaningful revenues for NextGen broadcasting are probably at least 5 years away. Sounds like a major chicken-and-egg scenario. Although saying that it will launch in 61 markets, including all of the top 40, in 2020 is something, I guess.

From a consumer perspective, I wonder if there's going to be any real incentive in 2020 or 2021 to get an ATSC 3.0 tuner. What might realistically be offered on those airwaves that's better than the existing 1.0? If a given market has, let's say, just one NextGen frequency in operation, that might carry the main .1 channel from 2, 3 or 4 different stations partnering up on it. It sounds like NBC, Fox, and especially PBS are on board to support 3.0, so maybe if your local affiliates for those nets are on your local 3.0 frequency, you'd get some 1080p HDR content. The article says that neither ABC nor CBS have expressed any public support for 3.0, so their content may not really look any better on their affiliates' 3.0 feeds as on their 1.0 feeds.

And if all 3.0 tuners are actually going to be hybrid 3.0/1.0 tuners (which is my understanding), then broadcasters know that early adopters will still be able to get all of their secondary diginet channels via 1.0. Would there be any reason to repeat those channels, which mainly feature classic TV series originally created in SD, on the shared 3.0 frequency? Maybe you'd see MeTV, which offers a 720p HD feed, simulcast on the 3.0 frequency.

Would there be any new diginets exclusive to 3.0 in a given market? Seems unlikely in the first couple years because it would reach such a small audience. Although maybe we'll see them try out subscription channels on 3.0, although the only candidate that seems at all likely to me there would be if Sinclair distributed their new Diamond Sports (formerly Fox Sports) RSNs there. (Hard to imagine HBO or Showtime or ESPN jumping on board OTA subscription distribution. And, yes, I'm aware of the failed AirBox venture.)

Here in Nashville, Sinclair owns three stations, two of which just got repacked and are operating at reduced power while they await new antenna installations. I suspect one of them -- probably WNAB, our CW affiliate -- will switch over to 3.0 in 2020. After its new antenna gets installed, WNAB is supposed to jump to 950 kW, a decent increase in power over where it had been prior to the repack. To maintain the same coverage area with 3.0 as with 1.0, the station would have a bitrate of about 26 Mbps on 3.0. That could support 5 stations running 1080p HDR (or SDR), as that level of picture quality is said to require about 5 Mbps in the HEVC codec that 3.0 will use.

So what might be carried by WNAB if it goes 3.0? Maybe:

58.1 The CW (WNAB/Sinclair)
17.1 Fox (WZTV/Sinclair)
2.1 ABC (WKRN/Nexstar)
Diamond Sports South (Sinclair)
Diamond Sports Tennessee (Sinclair)

I'm putting our only local Nexstar station on there given Nexstar's established spectrum sharing arrangement with Sinclair.

If that's all that shows up on 3.0 around here next year, I won't be rushing out to get a tuner...
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post #2180 of 2972 Old 10-24-2019, 12:49 PM
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Well, at least they're honest about their intentions. Poor OTA picture quality!
All the ATSC 3.0 baloney about 4K, 1080p HDR, etc. sounds good, but not sure we will ever see it.


“Let’s think about our technology choices and how they affect revenue,” Hane said. “What we do today, is we are spending enormous amounts of time and money — and lost revenue opportunities — to provide a pristine over-the-air signal to 15% of the viewers, who receive over-the-air, which we monetize the least.” Meanwhile, Hane said, the 85% of viewers who watch broadcast TV through cable and effectively generate the lion’s share of revenues (from both advertising dollars and retrans fees) often receive an inferior picture.
“What choices do we make there?” Hane said. “We don’t require the MVPDs to pass through an equal or better quality signal that we put out over the air. So the incentive we’re creating by our technology choices today is to for people to leave the paid platform, which has a lousy picture, and move to the free platform, which we go to the ends of the earth to make beautiful.
“It doesn’t make any sense,” he said. “We should be putting our focus on making sure that those who pay get at least as good a picture as those who don’t.”
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post #2181 of 2972 Old 10-24-2019, 02:04 PM
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My understanding is that the initial roll-out of 3.0 is coming next year - I expect this would include televisions with built in tuners? I'm in the market to buy a TV this year but at this stage I can't justify buying one with a tuner that will be outdated in a few months.

The lack of news from device makers is fairly concerning - what is the impulse for broadcasters to migrate to the new standard if there is no means for viewership. And if there is no viewership, what is the impulse for device makers to include an ATSC 3.0 tuner?

Does anyone know how ATSC 3.0 has been rolled out into televisions in South Korea, given that ATSC 3.0 is live there?
I would never buy a TV based on the tuner it had. Since that would typically mean I would need to watch live TV. Even thirty years ago I didn't use the tuners in TVs. I used external devices with tuners connected to the TV. So I didn't have to watch live TV and could timeshift my TV watching.

I still remember my first 1080P TV I got in 2005. A Samsung DLP set that had a cable card slot. I never even considered using it because I would have needed to watch live TV. Instead, in 2006, I got three HD Series 3 TiVos that used cable cards.
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post #2182 of 2972 Old 10-24-2019, 05:50 PM
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> He said broadcast ratings are dropping 16% a year and has been for 5 years and the size of the decrease is increasing every year.

That's the broadcast networks- ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox. Their ratings are certainly going down bigtime. However, I suspect their OTA usage is INCREASING! I know lots of people who live close enough to antennas to get the channels OTA and have cut the big cable bundle. I also expect with income inequality plenty of people rely on OTA signals for the broadcast channels. Yes, the broadcasters are losing viewers, but I wouldn't be surprised if that's disconnected from OTA viewership.
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post #2183 of 2972 Old 10-24-2019, 05:53 PM
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> I expect this would include televisions with built in tuners? I'm in the market to buy a TV this year but at this stage I can't justify buying one with a tuner that will be outdated in a few months.

I used to utilize my built-in tuners but I stopped a couple of years ago. I now have a HDHomeRun and use my streaming devices to utilize it on each of my TVs. So if/when ATSC 3 rolls out in my area, I just have to purchase something like a future ATSC 3 HDHomeRun, hook it into my antenna and home network and I'm good to go.
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post #2184 of 2972 Old 10-24-2019, 06:14 PM
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> Hane said that 3.0 is a way for broadcasters to ensure they get revenues from both advertising and subscriptions going forward, which he said is essential to survive against their digital competitors.

This statement from the @#$ lawyer in the TV News Check article scares me. I know ATSC 3 is supposed to have a mechanism to allow some sort of "unlocking" of premium OTA content- but I hope "normal" broadcast content we get today remains free. And I hope whatever these mechanisms are, they don't prevent usage of multi tuner HDHomeRun type devices (ATSC 3 versions of course.)

For years I ran a Windows Media Center with a Ceton cablecard tuner and as my former cable company marked more and more stations as CopyOnce or whatever it was (my memory is fading on the details), it caused problems with recordings.

With my ATSC 1.0 HDHomeRun device, I also run a Plex server for DVR- plus Plex allows me to stream the video when I'm travelling so that I can watch "my" locals when I'm away. My vMVPD doesn't allow me to watch "my" locals when I'm not in my own viewing area- it won't even allow me to set up a recording! I have to remember to schedule any "cloud" recordings before I leave.

I hope I don't lose the ability to do any of what I do with my HDHomeRun & Plex solutions when ATSC 3 devices roll out!

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post #2185 of 2972 Old 10-24-2019, 06:54 PM
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...

I hope I don't lose the ability to do any of what I do with my HDHomeRun & Plex solutions when ATSC 3 devices roll out!
I am in the same position having eight (8) HDHR tuners online right now. New Power Supply is due tomorrow, that makes three (3) new PS for four (4) Silicon Dust Boxes (2-4 tuners per box).

But what scares me is SD tuners that record captures in side the boxes.

That might mean that what were are doing will be blocked by the DRM rules for ATSC 3.0. We are such a small minority they may think they can get away with that.

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post #2186 of 2972 Old 10-25-2019, 06:14 AM
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I would never buy a TV based on the tuner it had. Since that would typically mean I would need to watch live TV. Even thirty years ago I didn't use the tuners in TVs. I used external devices with tuners connected to the TV. So I didn't have to watch live TV and could timeshift my TV watching.

I still remember my first 1080P TV I got in 2005. A Samsung DLP set that had a cable card slot. I never even considered using it because I would have needed to watch live TV. Instead, in 2006, I got three HD Series 3 TiVos that used cable cards.
Okay, but in my cable-less/DVR-less use-case where I am either watching a show live OTA or (more likely), stream after the fact, wanting to future-proof a device without the need for yet another peripheral is a relevant concern.
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post #2187 of 2972 Old 10-26-2019, 12:21 AM
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> Hane said that 3.0 is a way for broadcasters to ensure they get revenues from both advertising and subscriptions going forward, which he said is essential to survive against their digital competitors.

This statement from the @#$ lawyer in the TV News Check article scares me. I know ATSC 3 is supposed to have a mechanism to allow some sort of "unlocking" of premium OTA content- but I hope "normal" broadcast content we get today remains free. And I hope whatever these mechanisms are, they don't prevent usage of multi tuner HDHomeRun type devices (ATSC 3 versions of course.)

For years I ran a Windows Media Center with a Ceton cablecard tuner and as my former cable company marked more and more stations as CopyOnce or whatever it was (my memory is fading on the details), it caused problems with recordings.

With my ATSC 1.0 HDHomeRun device, I also run a Plex server for DVR- plus Plex allows me to stream the video when I'm travelling so that I can watch "my" locals when I'm away. My vMVPD doesn't allow me to watch "my" locals when I'm not in my own viewing area- it won't even allow me to set up a recording! I have to remember to schedule any "cloud" recordings before I leave.

I hope I don't lose the ability to do any of what I do with my HDHomeRun & Plex solutions when ATSC 3 devices roll out!
Premium OTA content will never fly in a streaming world, there won't be enough OTA viewers to monetize anything beyond ads. Kind of like what have we now, and most people who jump for ATSC 3.0 will be very upset if they don't get the 4K content they think that is promised. Don't worry, only normal content will pay the bills (it will have to).
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post #2188 of 2972 Old 10-26-2019, 12:25 AM
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Okay, but in my cable-less/DVR-less use-case where I am either watching a show live OTA or (more likely), stream after the fact, wanting to future-proof a device without the need for yet another peripheral is a relevant concern.
You can't future proof for a future that may never arrive. Most these things are going to take a lot longer to actually implement and your box(s) could dead at that point.
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post #2189 of 2972 Old 10-26-2019, 12:32 AM
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> He said broadcast ratings are dropping 16% a year and has been for 5 years and the size of the decrease is increasing every year.

That's the broadcast networks- ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox. Their ratings are certainly going down bigtime. However, I suspect their OTA usage is INCREASING! I know lots of people who live close enough to antennas to get the channels OTA and have cut the big cable bundle. I also expect with income inequality plenty of people rely on OTA signals for the broadcast channels. Yes, the broadcasters are losing viewers, but I wouldn't be surprised if that's disconnected from OTA viewership.
They're losing them them to streaming services (their own in a lot of cases), the fact that OTA dvr ownership is not increasing points to SVOD. Hulu is a lot of that. Other than sports that's mostly watched live, everything else needs VOD or dvrs. And we know people aren't buying dvrs.. Poor people don't have time for TV either.

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post #2190 of 2972 Old 10-26-2019, 12:37 AM
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Wow. The roadmap sounds pretty underwhelming -- meaningful revenues for NextGen broadcasting are probably at least 5 years away. Sounds like a major chicken-and-egg scenario. Although saying that it will launch in 61 markets, including all of the top 40, in 2020 is something, I guess.

From a consumer perspective, I wonder if there's going to be any real incentive in 2020 or 2021 to get an ATSC 3.0 tuner. What might realistically be offered on those airwaves that's better than the existing 1.0? If a given market has, let's say, just one NextGen frequency in operation, that might carry the main .1 channel from 2, 3 or 4 different stations partnering up on it. It sounds like NBC, Fox, and especially PBS are on board to support 3.0, so maybe if your local affiliates for those nets are on your local 3.0 frequency, you'd get some 1080p HDR content. The article says that neither ABC nor CBS have expressed any public support for 3.0, so their content may not really look any better on their affiliates' 3.0 feeds as on their 1.0 feeds.

And if all 3.0 tuners are actually going to be hybrid 3.0/1.0 tuners (which is my understanding), then broadcasters know that early adopters will still be able to get all of their secondary diginet channels via 1.0. Would there be any reason to repeat those channels, which mainly feature classic TV series originally created in SD, on the shared 3.0 frequency? Maybe you'd see MeTV, which offers a 720p HD feed, simulcast on the 3.0 frequency.

Would there be any new diginets exclusive to 3.0 in a given market? Seems unlikely in the first couple years because it would reach such a small audience. Although maybe we'll see them try out subscription channels on 3.0, although the only candidate that seems at all likely to me there would be if Sinclair distributed their new Diamond Sports (formerly Fox Sports) RSNs there. (Hard to imagine HBO or Showtime or ESPN jumping on board OTA subscription distribution. And, yes, I'm aware of the failed AirBox venture.)

Here in Nashville, Sinclair owns three stations, two of which just got repacked and are operating at reduced power while they await new antenna installations. I suspect one of them -- probably WNAB, our CW affiliate -- will switch over to 3.0 in 2020. After its new antenna gets installed, WNAB is supposed to jump to 950 kW, a decent increase in power over where it had been prior to the repack. To maintain the same coverage area with 3.0 as with 1.0, the station would have a bitrate of about 26 Mbps on 3.0. That could support 5 stations running 1080p HDR (or SDR), as that level of picture quality is said to require about 5 Mbps in the HEVC codec that 3.0 will use.

So what might be carried by WNAB if it goes 3.0? Maybe:

58.1 The CW (WNAB/Sinclair)
17.1 Fox (WZTV/Sinclair)
2.1 ABC (WKRN/Nexstar)
Diamond Sports South (Sinclair)
Diamond Sports Tennessee (Sinclair)

I'm putting our only local Nexstar station on there given Nexstar's established spectrum sharing arrangement with Sinclair.

If that's all that shows up on 3.0 around here next year, I won't be rushing out to get a tuner...
About the time people really need 5G phones that's when you'll need a an ATSC 3.0 tuner. Think of two lanes in a turtle race on a very long track.

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