Originally Posted by imagic
The counterpoint, or rather what differentiates today from the past, is that only recently has VOD quality gotten to the point where it holds up on a big screen, and the cost of going big at home is much lower than ever, with a good projector costing under a grand, a decent 75" TV under 2 grand and 95" TVs are no longer extravagances that cost as much as cars.
As for cultural impact, I bet premier night for movies would hold up with VOD because of social media. Kids are on their phones for the whole movie watching in theaters, my guess is if a hot movie premiered on VOD on a Friday, it'll get the sort of buzz that people expect of a movie event.
After observing how people treated Game of Thrones episodes, I'm pretty confident this is a new reality.
The industry will follow the money, that's all I know for sure.
Regardless of the acceptance of home video by consumers, the right thing for AMC to do from their business perspective is to not play movies that they don't have exclusives on. While the total revenue from all types home video gets larger all the time and is already larger than the theatrical industry, the revenue for any one film is far smaller on home video. While we don't know streaming license fees for any one film, what we do know is that Blu-ray revenue for the #1
title of 2019 (Avengers Endgame) was $67.4 million at list prices in North America vs. $858.4 million for domestic theatrical box-office.
The Blu-ray numbers reported on the-numbers.com for GOT seem unreliable, because the same numbers are repeated for different seasons, but in terms of ratings, the seasonal averages ranged from 2.52 to 11.99 million viewers (and I suspect that's premiere + 3 days numbers). That's actually not very many.
Also, participants on this forum are self-selected and likely to have better systems at home. The average consumer has a cheap big-screen TV they bought at a big-box store that is uncalibrated and at best, has a sound bar attached to it (and many don't even have that). Anecdotal, but out of all my friends and relatives, I am the only one who has a TV attached to a decent audio system. Therefore, for most people, the theater is STILL a vastly superior experience, especially a better theater or many Dolby Cinema theaters.
(I live in an apartment building and frequently help people out with their systems. Before cable companies started automatically switching to the HD channel when someone chose the SD version of the channel, many of my neighbors were watching the SD channel because they didn't know the difference. And when I did a modest calibration using a calibration disc, they usually wound up hating the picture and preferred the over-bright, over-contrasty, over saturated picture they had before as the TV was set out-of-the-box.)