Originally Posted by Randy Bessinger
But at this point we don’t know how life started so we don’t know how rare or the odds it would develope much less intelligent life. A recent Oxford study using the best math and info we have says intelligent life may be very rare and possibly we are alone. Depressing but that is some of the most current scientific thinking...Fermi paradox and all that stuff.
Really, really smart guy Marshall Savage says much the same thing in his seminal 1992 work, "The Millennial Foundation". Working from an assumption among some proto-biologists that it would take a minimum of 600 building-block amino-acid type molecules interacting randomly in the primordial soup to finally, by sheer chance, stumble upon the right combination to become self-replicating, let alone surviving long enough to keep
self-replicating and have a built in error process that would allow for mutations and thus evolution, the factorial number that comes to is greater than all the stars currently thought to be in the known universe.
So, from just a pure mathematical probability standpoint, we may indeed be something really special. It's basically an impossibility, except here we are to prove it happened. At least once.
Personally, I'm more optimistic. I think life exists elsewhere, maybe even on some of the moons of our gas giant planets where we figure liquid water exists below the surface. But intelligent
life, capable of becoming a space-faring race? That I'm a bit more skeptical of.
But, like Fox Mulder, I want