When will streaming kill the disc?? - Page 4 - AVS Forum | Home Theater Discussions And Reviews
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post #91 of 339 Old 05-02-2018, 05:33 PM
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Originally Posted by whiteboy714 View Post
From what I see it's actually the opposite. For anyone under 30 discs are ancient. All the media at your fingertips is where it's at today. Quality plays second fiddle to convenience.

I think the folks that are concerned about discs are the hobbyist's.

You could also make the case that the over say 50-60 crowd might prefer discs just because they're not looking to learn a new system.
When the cloud goes down you got ZERO, internet crashes and there is a ton of 3g in pockets, video streaming requires 4g. Reality is angry god with a giant club. It's actually hobbyists that are pushing streaming as a replacement, tons of younger people are hitting that big red box because it's cheaper and cheaper to rent. Money talks. The next time you're in an area with a lot of younger people count the red boxes there a lot of them.

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post #92 of 339 Old 05-02-2018, 08:37 PM
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Originally Posted by mtbdudex View Post
I’ve posted this elsewhere on AVS.
I’m a disc buyer myself, but the data and buying trends tell the story



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What that chart actually shows is that streaming services is where people are going. There are a lot of them and almost everyone has Amazon, Netflix or Hulu if not several of them. The chart compares dollars, not numbers. If you consider that a VOD rental is about $6 and a rental at a kiosk is about $2, you can see that there are about twice as many physical rentals than digital rentals. Physical sales of DVD/BD is over twice the digital dollar amount.

What the chart shows to me is that people a moving away from movie sales in general. A lot might have to do with the crappy titles that have come out recently. Streaming services have original content as well as old series and movies. You can usually find something decent to watch ant a bargain price. The cost of buying one movie covers about 2 months of a subscription service. That is where the perceived value is and where the growth is. Overall, everything else is in decline.
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post #93 of 339 Old 05-03-2018, 06:43 AM
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Originally Posted by tenthplanet View Post
When the cloud goes down you got ZERO, internet crashes and there is a ton of 3g in pockets, video streaming requires 4g. Reality is angry god with a giant club. It's actually hobbyists that are pushing streaming as a replacement, tons of younger people are hitting that big red box because it's cheaper and cheaper to rent. Money talks. The next time you're in an area with a lot of younger people count the red boxes there a lot of them.



I usually see older people at Redbox, not younger people. The younger people are streaming on their phones.
Besides, as that chart a few posts up shows, disc rentals from Kiosks are way below what streaming brings in. And their revenue has been waning the last few years, while streaming revenie is increasing.

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post #94 of 339 Old 05-03-2018, 07:04 AM
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Originally Posted by golfster View Post
What that chart actually shows is that streaming services is where people are going. There are a lot of them and almost everyone has Amazon, Netflix or Hulu if not several of them. The chart compares dollars, not numbers. If you consider that a VOD rental is about $6 and a rental at a kiosk is about $2, you can see that there are about twice as many physical rentals than digital rentals. Physical sales of DVD/BD is over twice the digital dollar amount.

What the chart shows to me is that people a moving away from movie sales in general. A lot might have to do with the crappy titles that have come out recently. Streaming services have original content as well as old series and movies. You can usually find something decent to watch ant a bargain price. The cost of buying one movie covers about 2 months of a subscription service. That is where the perceived value is and where the growth is. Overall, everything else is in decline.
It may be in decline... but movie studios aren't dumping $4.72B in physical media sales anytime soon.

I haven't spent a nickel on digital movie purchases... I can buy the 4K UHD disc and get a 1080p disc as well as a digital code that gives me streaming rights for pretty much the same money as a digital purchase or maybe a few dollars extra. In the case of standard 1080p BD most of them are dirt cheap now and cheaper than any digital iTunes copy anyway.

I can rip my own copy with my PC and stream it as well.

Sure streaming is convenient... there's quite a few shows I watch on Netflix but I'm not willing to go all in on it just yet... no reason to.
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post #95 of 339 Old 05-03-2018, 09:56 AM
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Originally Posted by aaronwt View Post
The Digital system did get overhauled. That's Movies Anywhere. And all my previous Ultra Violet titles got transferred over to Movies Anywhere.
And there were issues with it and it still isn't all inclusive across all providers. Some titles show up on one service and not on another. You get UHD on one provider and only HD on the other. There are still a lot of issues that need to be addressed. If I don't redeem a code on iTunes I can't get UHD in the Apple ecosystem even using the industry preferred MA redemption site. It's a cluster..ck.

Also if you change your email address MA doesn't provide an easy way to update your account. I dropped Comcast after nearly 20 years, MA was about the only service that said they don't support a userid change since your email is the userid. You can change it but you have to contact customer support and go through a process on their end. I still think I lost UHD access on a few titles because of this.

This all points to me having little faith in having a long term collection in the cloud.

I'm fine streaming on my smaller displays but on my JVC e-shift projector streaming UHD is NOT equivalent to watching a high-bit rate UHD disc.
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post #96 of 339 Old 05-03-2018, 10:04 AM
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Originally Posted by TravisPNW View Post
It may be in decline... but movie studios aren't dumping $4.72B in physical media sales anytime soon.
Plus that streaming revenue is for services like Hulu, Netflix, HBO Now, etc. It's not apples to apples. Still looks like electronic sell through is lagging over 50% behind disc sales.

Most people equate streaming with services like Netflix and Hulu where you pay a monthly fee for access to everything available. I just don't see a lot of users willing to shell out $20+ for digital license when the thinking is that this stream will eventually be available on Netflix or one of the other providers.
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post #97 of 339 Old 05-03-2018, 10:22 AM
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As long as there are enough people buying premium high end audio gear to keep companies like Denon in the AVR game and to keep the lights on at all the speaker manufacturers like Ascend, Aperion, SVS, Paradigm, etc etc... and as long as there's enough demand for $10k+ flat panels that companies like LG, Sony and Samsung continue to produce them, and as long as high end projector companies that rely on a demand for 120"+ screens are still able to stay in business... there will be a sufficient customer base of people interested in uncompressed video + lossless audio to support the continued production of Blu Ray discs.

Is the physical disc "on the outs" as the MAINSTREAM way to consume? Of course. I'd argue it already IS out, at least as far as "the mainstream" goes.

But niche markets exist. And even thrive. I said this earlier in this thread buy I'll say it again. If CDs sales in 2017 were strong enough to justify continued production of CDs in 2018, I see no reason to think that Blu Ray sales won't be strong enough in 2027 to support continued production in 2028...


Streaming isn't going to "kill" the disc any time soon...
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post #98 of 339 Old 05-03-2018, 10:41 AM
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Originally Posted by Toknow****a View Post
And there were issues with it and it still isn't all inclusive across all providers. Some titles show up on one service and not on another. You get UHD on one provider and only HD on the other. There are still a lot of issues that need to be addressed. If I don't redeem a code on iTunes I can't get UHD in the Apple ecosystem even using the industry preferred MA redemption site. It's a cluster..ck.

Also if you change your email address MA doesn't provide an easy way to update your account. I dropped Comcast after nearly 20 years, MA was about the only service that said they don't support a userid change since your email is the userid. You can change it but you have to contact customer support and go through a process on their end. I still think I lost UHD access on a few titles because of this.

This all points to me having little faith in having a long term collection in the cloud.

I'm fine streaming on my smaller displays but on my JVC e-shift projector streaming UHD is NOT equivalent to watching a high-bit rate UHD disc.
Its not equivalent for HD or SD either. It never has been. Streaming UHD is typically equivalent to the 2K BD. At least where SDR content is concerned.

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post #99 of 339 Old 05-03-2018, 10:43 AM
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Originally Posted by psuKinger View Post
As long as there are enough people buying premium high end audio gear to keep companies like Denon in the AVR game and to keep the lights on at all the speaker manufacturers like Ascend, Aperion, SVS, Paradigm, etc etc... and as long as there's enough demand for $10k+ flat panels that companies like LG, Sony and Samsung continue to produce them, and as long as high end projector companies that rely on a demand for 120"+ screens are still able to stay in business... there will be a sufficient customer base of people interested in uncompressed video + lossless audio to support the continued production of Blu Ray discs.

Is the physical disc "on the outs" as the MAINSTREAM way to consume? Of course. I'd argue it already IS out, at least as far as "the mainstream" goes.

But niche markets exist. And even thrive. I said this earlier in this thread buy I'll say it again. If CDs sales in 2017 were strong enough to justify continued production of CDs in 2018, I see no reason to think that Blu Ray sales won't be strong enough in 2027 to support continued production in 2028...


Streaming isn't going to "kill" the disc any time soon...
CD sales surpassed digital for the first time since 2011. But that is only because most people now subscribe to a music streaming services instead of purchasing music titles digitally.

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post #100 of 339 Old 05-03-2018, 11:08 AM
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Originally Posted by aaronwt View Post
CD sales surpassed digital for the first time since 2011. But that is only because most people now subscribe to a music streaming services instead of purchasing music titles digitally.

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I'm one of those subscribers. I have a streaming music package (google music), and I also have streaming video subscriptions to Youtube Red (comes with Google Music), Netflix, HBO Now, Showtime, and Amazon...

But I still buy CDs and Blu Rays, too, and rip them losslessly to disc, for stuff that I want in high quality.

My only point was/is that CDs are still for sale and available in 2018. Streaming music hasn't killed physical discs yet, so I see no reason to think streaming video will kill physical discs anytime soon either.
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post #101 of 339 Old 05-03-2018, 11:22 AM
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I still have a whole library of BD discs, but physical media baffles my kids. The startup menus, the lag -- it's inconceivable to them that they would choose an incrementally better picture (for now) over ease of use. It's a generational thing, but physical digital media is not analogous to vinyl. It's just another, slower way of getting the zeros and ones on your screen. And there isn't going to be a boutique market for new UHD's made in small artisanal shops in Nashville. These are huge global conglomerates printing these things. Once they calculate diminishing returns, physical media will die. Like LaserDiscs. You can't buy them new, nor can you buy new players. The same will eventually happen to DVD's BD, and UHDs.
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post #102 of 339 Old 05-03-2018, 11:53 AM
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I still have a whole library of BD discs, but physical media baffles my kids. The startup menus, the lag -- it's inconceivable to them that they would choose an incrementally better picture (for now) over ease of use. It's a generational thing, but physical digital media is not analogous to vinyl. It's just another, slower way of getting the zeros and ones on your screen. And there isn't going to be a boutique market for new UHD's made in small artisanal shops in Nashville. These are huge global conglomerates printing these things. Once they calculate diminishing returns, physical media will die. Like LaserDiscs. You can't buy them new, nor can you buy new players. The same will eventually happen to DVD's BD, and UHDs.
If the "diminishing returns" haven't happened, yet, to a significant enough a degree to kill CDs and DVDs in 2018, I think 4K UHD discs are "safe" for a looooong time...
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post #103 of 339 Old 05-03-2018, 01:17 PM
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Originally Posted by psuKinger View Post
I'm one of those subscribers. I have a streaming music package (google music), and I also have streaming video subscriptions to Youtube Red (comes with Google Music), Netflix, HBO Now, Showtime, and Amazon...

But I still buy CDs and Blu Rays, too, and rip them losslessly to disc, for stuff that I want in high quality.

My only point was/is that CDs are still for sale and available in 2018. Streaming music hasn't killed physical discs yet, so I see no reason to think streaming video will kill physical discs anytime soon either.
I stopped buying CD many years ago. I used to rip them losslessly in the early 2000's. But now the only time I will buy a CD is if I am forced to. Like sometimes Amazon will make you buy the CD to get the digital version. So I have a few CDs unopened because I only purchased them to get their digital file automatically added to my Amazon CLoud account.

Although now they are trying to force people to use their music streaming service for an additional $8 or $10 a month. Since they are ending their current cloud music storage that I have used for many years. I pay $4 a month for Pandora, but I don't really want to pay for another music service.

Since I like to either play my own music or music related to an artist or title. And in my testing Pandora always did the best job. Playing music that I like over 90% of the time. While the other music streaming services struggled to play music that I liked 50% of the time.

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post #104 of 339 Old 05-03-2018, 04:18 PM
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Originally Posted by aaronwt View Post
I usually see older people at Redbox, not younger people. The younger people are streaming on their phones.
Besides, as that chart a few posts up shows, disc rentals from Kiosks are way below what streaming brings in. And their revenue has been waning the last few years, while streaming revenie is increasing.

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In heavily rental neighborhoods (vs home owners) red boxes are rampant, every Walgreens, CVS, and every supermarket and 7-11 has one. Cheap works in the city for people throwing most their money into rent.
Affulent areas are another story.

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post #105 of 339 Old 05-04-2018, 07:26 AM
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Originally Posted by IronManFan View Post
I still have a whole library of BD discs, but physical media baffles my kids. The startup menus, the lag -- it's inconceivable to them that they would choose an incrementally better picture (for now) over ease of use. It's a generational thing

Lol so true.
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post #106 of 339 Old 05-04-2018, 09:24 AM
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Originally Posted by IronManFan View Post
I still have a whole library of BD discs, but physical media baffles my kids. The startup menus, the lag -- it's inconceivable to them that they would choose an incrementally better picture (for now) over ease of use. It's a generational thing, but physical digital media is not analogous to vinyl.
Then again, that's a generation of people who is somehow satisfied with watching movies on their cell phones, listening to music through said phone's built-in crappy speaker, and would rather text their friends standing right in front of them than actually talk. Same generation LOVES their Beats headphones and Justin Bieber. Thus, their opinions regarding A/V do not count.
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post #107 of 339 Old 05-04-2018, 01:12 PM
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Then again, that's a generation of people who is somehow satisfied with watching movies on their cell phones, listening to music through said phone's built-in crappy speaker, and would rather text their friends standing right in front of them than actually talk. Same generation LOVES their Beats headphones and Justin Bieber. Thus, their opinions regarding A/V do not count.
Their opinions aside, what really counts is their purchasing dollars and where they want to spend them. You may say that kids don't have a lot of money, but they do have a lot of influence over where their parent(s) spend their considerable entertainment dollars. Then what they can't afford to buy, they simply pirate.

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post #108 of 339 Old 05-09-2018, 12:43 PM
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That chart is somewhat misleading in that it suggests that all those things are competing for the same dollar.

I use Netflix, etc for TV shows both old and new. When something like Infinity Wars comes to the "home", then the fight for my $$ is between UBD, BD and VoD. Netflix, Hulu, Amazon are not even a consideration. Unless of course you wait a really long time...at which point just watch it on TBS or TNT.

Rentals is a different story...and to be honest...if its a movie I am only interested in renting....then digital rental with the likes of Vudu is the way I go. Its usually a movie I could care less about quality. No way I consider Redbox...not worth the effort.
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post #109 of 339 Old 05-15-2018, 01:31 PM
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Originally Posted by Montucky View Post
Then again, that's a generation of people who is somehow satisfied with watching movies on their cell phones, listening to music through said phone's built-in crappy speaker, and would rather text their friends standing right in front of them than actually talk. Same generation LOVES their Beats headphones and Justin Bieber. Thus, their opinions regarding A/V do not count.
Of course their opinions regarding A/V count! A/V production follows the market, no matter how young and dumb the market is. OPPO is the canary in the mine. If OPPO thought there was a future in discs, then they wouldn't stop making players.

The DV roll-out fiasco is another portent. If Sony thought discs mattered, then they wouldn't have such a half-assed DV roll-out, where we can get streaming DV but not hardware-HDMI based DV. The main beef is that Sony released DV that wasn't fully enabled. How could Sony be so dumb? Well, it wasn't a question of dumb but how much Sony cares. The Sony disc player that's supposed to mate with "DV-ready" Sony TVs does not support DV. That's how much Sony cares.

Sure, they'll still make media—UDH HDR discs—and even generic players. But if DV is any indication, players will soon be relegated to the legacy rubric.

I think the thread title is correct. Not if but WHEN will streaming kill the disc? The answer is, as soon as it can. Why? Because moving content from disc to streaming is the same as moving data from local hard drives to the cloud. Cloud and streaming are not only cheaper and more popular ways of distribution, they are vastly better means of distributor control.

UPDATE: I see now, that Sony is actually going to enable DV for one of its players, the X700, with a firmware update this summer. We'll see.

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post #110 of 339 Old 05-15-2018, 07:14 PM
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Well, for sure UHD will be that last disc format we'll see. But discs aren't the only physical medium. Considering the fact that 8K is on the far horizon and I don't see TV manufacturers stopping its development anytime soon, they only way to achieve respectable 8K playback will be using physical media. Given that microSD cards at the moment can hold upwards of 200GB it should have no problem storing an 8K movie. All that’s need is for the industry to devise a proprietary shell for the memory chip, one whose insertion into a device which can be automated. Then a block-chain/key exchange scheme could be devised to verify the medium, the interface and maybe even the playback device, and a central authenticating server to corroborate the integrity of components. This would require the playback device to be connected to the Internet for the duration of the verification process. The media wouldn’t even need to be encrypted necessarily. In fact, if the industry were brave enough, there wouldn’t be a need for physical media bringing joy to those who insist on streaming from a home NAS. Regardless, I’m sure a block-chain scheme could be implemented to protect the IP of the rightful owners. So streaming from the Internet, which is inferior to that of physical media, might be good enough for the casual viewer, us enthusiasts need not suffer the indignation of insufficient bandwidth or data thresholds, which are surely coming down the pike given the FCC’s posture on Net Neutrality issues and the like.

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post #111 of 339 Old 05-16-2018, 12:00 AM
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I think the thread title is correct. Not if but WHEN will streaming kill the disc? The answer is, as soon as it can. Why? Because moving content from disc to streaming is the same as moving data from local hard drives to the cloud. Cloud and streaming are not only cheaper and more popular ways of distribution, they are vastly better means of distributor control.
Better yet, they want to pull the wool over our eyes - Calling it "digital purchases" when they really mean "rental". And charging full price while they're at it.

Sure it's not a rental that expires in 24-48 hours and you have to return it, but digital purchases are still rentals. Rentals you pay $10-15 for instead of $3 as you should.

And this is he holy grail of the content industry - to make you pay over and over again for the same content, on their terms. Soon you can expect that if you don't watch a movie once a year, you'll have to pay an "archival" fee to see it again. Heck, you'll soon be accustomed to "buy it with 4 free views" so you will pay every time you watch it. And an eyeball fee - the movie you bought comes with 2 sets of eyeballs to watch it at any one time. If a third person wishes to watch, well, you got pay the extra fee.

The content industry can't kill physical formats fast enough. And they will want to get everyone conditioned to this so the next physical storage release will have the same limits.
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post #112 of 339 Old 05-16-2018, 12:36 AM
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I stream new rentals via iTunes or Vudu but I buy UHD discs for movies I want to own and rewatch. Presently, HDR, Dolby Vision, Dolby Atmos and DTS:X are maximized in my HT only via discs. Unless the streaming devices deliver all these formats without buffering (not my bandwidth problem), discs live.
The DTS:X track from the King Kong Extended Edition 4K UHD disc is nearly 11GB!!

Imagine trying to stream that sucker uncompressed in 4K!

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post #113 of 339 Old 05-16-2018, 07:59 AM
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Originally Posted by Worf View Post
Sure it's not a rental that expires in 24-48 hours and you have to return it, but digital purchases are still rentals. Rentals you pay $10-15 for instead of $3 as you should.

And this is he holy grail of the content industry - to make you pay over and over again for the same content, on their terms. Soon you can expect that if you don't watch a movie once a year, you'll have to pay an "archival" fee to see it again. Heck, you'll soon be accustomed to "buy it with 4 free views" so you will pay every time you watch it. And an eyeball fee - the movie you bought comes with 2 sets of eyeballs to watch it at any one time. If a third person wishes to watch, well, you got pay the extra fee.
How are digital purchases "still rentals"? Streaming content you buy from Amazon is virtually yours. You don't get charged "over and over again". To illustrate, when you're in a foreign country you can't rent videos from amazon.com, for licensing reasons, but you can play your purchased video, because it's yours. I don't see Amazon changing that.

It's like Kindle. I love physical books, but the idea that I can access my stuff wherever I am is mighty compelling.

That said, home is where I normally am, and home is where I don't have to compromise on quality. I have an expensive setup to play the best quality media, which is physical discs. It's a crime that "the marketplace" has decreed that from now on I eat hamburger instead of steak!

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post #114 of 339 Old 05-16-2018, 02:31 PM
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Originally Posted by IronManFan View Post
I still have a whole library of BD discs, but physical media baffles my kids. The startup menus, the lag -- it's inconceivable to them that they would choose an incrementally better picture (for now) over ease of use. It's a generational thing, but physical digital media is not analogous to vinyl. It's just another, slower way of getting the zeros and ones on your screen.
Well if you're wanting to watch a fairly new release (which is not an uncommon desire among kids and young adults) on a subscription streaming service, the lag time for that is going to be months.

So the alternatives are to purchase it outright on digital for $20 or more, buy the disc with the code, buy the code, or rent it for $6. With any of those three choices, if you want to watch it via digital, you still have the lag time of making the purchase or entering a code, and that's after going to the website (perhaps VUDU) to look for it. The disc you just put it in and play.
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post #115 of 339 Old 05-16-2018, 02:36 PM
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Well if you're wanting to watch a fairly new release (which is not an uncommon desire among kids and young adults) on a subscription streaming service, the lag time for that is going to be months.

So the alternatives are to purchase it outright on digital for $20 or more, buy the disc with the code, buy the code, or rent it for $6. With any of those three choices, if you want to watch it via digital, you still have the lag time of making the purchase or entering a code, and that's after going to the website (perhaps VUDU) to look for it. The disc you just put it in and play.
Not to mention that the streaming services are getting more segmented. Pretty soon Disney won't be licensing any A-list content to Netflix with their streaming service debuting next year. I think in the end streaming is going to become a pick and choose game. Customers will jump services routinely. In the end the new model will probably be more expensive than traditional delivery methods.
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post #116 of 339 Old 05-16-2018, 02:48 PM
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Keep in mind that there are two types of streaming and shouldn't be lumped together as competition against disc. Subscription streaming is really what is seeing the major growth, but as almost everyone knows, the new and recent theatrical movies aren't available on Netflix/Amazon until months after it comes out on disc.

Subscription streaming only gets the movies (and not all of them, only some) well after the disc sales well has pretty much run dry. And since Blu-ray/UHD sales of new and recent movies are at least 70% its sales revenue, subscription streaming has much less impact on disc sales than what most may think.

Where streaming has the most impact is on cable/sat viewing, and to a lessor extent catalog movies on disc and an also an indirect impact in that it steals time from disc watching.

The real competition to disc is that other type of streaming: that of purchased digital media. EST (or Digital HD) sales have started to flatten out in the last year and as of now, still account for less than one third of total sell-through purchases.

So while streaming dominates these days, it's mainly the subscription streaming side, where you won't find the latest and greatest content (of course other than Netflix and Amazon original programming), which is the bread and butter of physical media. And with EST sales starting to level out, it appears that it is not living up to studio's expectations and won't be replacing disc any time soon, if ever.

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post #117 of 339 Old 05-16-2018, 02:55 PM
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video didn't kill the radio star and streaming won't kill the disc
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post #118 of 339 Old 05-16-2018, 03:12 PM
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First of all, kids are not watching movies. They are watching short form videos on YouTube and the likes. Movies are primarily for us old people people, some of which still have land line phones. The saying is "convenience trumps fidelity" so the closer the gap between streamed and physical media, the closer to the end of physical media. I used to rip my DVD's until I realized that my time was worth more than the cost of a digital download. I only buy bluRays when either the cinematography and/or soundtrack warrant the added fidelity, otherwise just buy the download. I anticipate buying a UHD player soon but I have a feeling that will be my last physical media player.
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post #119 of 339 Old 05-16-2018, 03:28 PM
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I can still see a disk format being around for a long time for the niche market that enjoys better sound and picture than streaming.

We didn't buy decent AVR and speakers to watch and listen to 5.1 dolby

Having said that, i stream almost all of my movies these days, as its convenient for a rental, and pretty much the only option

I really miss the days of browsing Blockbuster and grabbing a few BluRay's as the picture quality and sound was a lot better than what was offered than now.

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post #120 of 339 Old 05-16-2018, 03:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rgarc View Post
First of all, kids are not watching movies. They are watching short form videos on YouTube and the likes. Movies are primarily for us old people people
Well then, you'd better tell the studios to stop making movies for kids and adolescents, I mean, if they're not watching movies anymore, what's the point?

The biggest sellers on disc and Digital HD are exactly those kinds of movies: targeting primarily the under 30 crowd. Sure they watch Youtube and short form video as well, but they watch a heck of a lot of movies too. After all, kids still living at home have the most free time on their hands.
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