LG 65EC9700 65 OLED Anticipation thread - Page 65 - AVS Forum | Home Theater Discussions And Reviews
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post #1921 of 3193 Old 10-23-2014, 08:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Nujacc View Post
Rogo, Man why you want to come in this thread and start making sense(using all kinds of Calculus and Statics), this is a thread about hope and change. Some folks see your prudent logic as a defeatist attitude.
I know, but it's really just a reality check... (See below)

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Originally Posted by fafrd View Post
I believe I read somewhere that is a three phase plan with 8000 sheets per month in phase I, increasing to 16,000 sheets per month in phase II, with phase III getting up to the full capacity of 26,000 sheets per month.

If M2 does not get to phase I until H2 2015, it would mean no more than ~50,000 OLEDs next year (and no return to reasonable pricing before H2'15 ).

I hope you are just setting expectations so low that they are sure to be exceeded - we'll know as soon as M2 hits phase I because pricing on 55" 1080p OLEDs (and hopefully also on 65" 2160p OLEDs ) will come crashing back down...
My words are probably not precise enough in the post. I am sincerely hopeful that the first phase will be up and running very soon. I am firmly convinced the third phase (of M2) will not hit full production in 2015. Period.

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Before too long Rogo will be told that OLED isn't for him! I was tarred with that too.
It's definitely for me. I'm sincerely hoping my 2012 65" plasma keeps being fabulous until the 77" OLED hits it's fourth "tick" of 30% reductions from here, +/-. It's rather hard to defend even that ~$6K price given you can -- today -- buy a very decent 80" TV for $3000 and we are talking about 3-4 years from today in all likelihood. But for what I'd consider an "ultimate" TV, I'd put that price in the acceptable range. And I'm confident that price will be achieved.
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There's a saying about "everything in moderation". If only it was applied to well, you know...
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post #1922 of 3193 Old 10-23-2014, 08:55 PM
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Originally Posted by vultur View Post
^What's the last Panasonic plasma you've owned? The 2013 Vieras will give the F8500 a run for its money in all but max brightness. I went from 65" to 55" to enjoy OLED...when it comes time to buy again, I'm going to reward myself for taking the plunge by grabbing the 77" (but not for $25k or even $15k...$10k and I may no longer be able to hold back).
It wasn't the 2013 Vieras. It was the model year before and only a 54 inch..can't think of the model.
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post #1923 of 3193 Old 10-23-2014, 09:43 PM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post
I know, but it's really just a reality check... (See below)



My words are probably not precise enough in the post. I am sincerely hopeful that the first phase will be up and running very soon. I am firmly convinced the third phase (of M2) will not hit full production in 2015. Period.


It's definitely for me. I'm sincerely hoping my 2012 65" plasma keeps being fabulous until the 77" OLED hits it's fourth "tick" of 30% reductions from here, +/-. It's rather hard to defend even that ~$6K price given you can -- today -- buy a very decent 80" TV for $3000 and we are talking about 3-4 years from today in all likelihood. But for what I'd consider an "ultimate" TV, I'd put that price in the acceptable range. And I'm confident that price will be achieved.
I hope for LG and OLEDs sake that you are wrong. If they only get to phase II in mid-215 and don't reach phase III until 2016, that would translate into a maximum of less than 0.7M OLEDs next year, so no more than 0.35% of the TV market in 2015. On the other hand, I have to agree with the fact that, since we are now at the end of October and getting up to phase I has seemingly not been achieved yet, this unfortunate evolution is looking more and more likely...
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post #1924 of 3193 Old 10-23-2014, 10:02 PM
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Originally Posted by fafrd View Post
A first review of the 65" 4K OLED: http://www.gizmodo.com.au/2014/10/lg...ralian-review/

(or perhaps more properly termed a preview - suspect that the reviewer may not have actually had a TV to test hands-on )
I already posted this review a couple pages back..
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post #1925 of 3193 Old 10-23-2014, 11:52 PM
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To any gamers out there that were wondering about this sets gaming capabilities here is an excellent review that details their gaming experience. Now if I could just get a review on uniformity and 3D as well as calibration I would be completely sold.


http://www.kotaku.com.au/2014/10/pc-...-ultra-hd-tvs/
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post #1926 of 3193 Old 10-23-2014, 11:55 PM
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Originally Posted by fafrd View Post
I hope for LG and OLEDs sake that you are wrong. If they only get to phase II in mid-215 and don't reach phase III until 2016, that would translate into a maximum of less than 0.7M OLEDs next year, so no more than 0.35% of the TV market in 2015. On the other hand, I have to agree with the fact that, since we are now at the end of October and getting up to phase I has seemingly not been achieved yet, this unfortunate evolution is looking more and more likely...
So, what do you think 2014 sales will be? I think we'd agree, "Not 100,000 worldwide" right?

If so, 700,000 -- let's just use that number without critiquing it -- would be an 8-10x increase in one year. And that increase would occur while production facilities that don't really exist yet (in terms of being active) are ramping up to functional. That sounds reasonable.

What doesn't sound reasonable is 1.5M OLED TVs next year.

There's a saying about "everything in moderation". If only it was applied to well, you know...
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post #1927 of 3193 Old 10-24-2014, 12:30 AM
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Doesn't get much more boring than that in OLED land.

You've got one guy that doesn't understand basic television controls and you've got the other that insists on doing basic arithmetic every other post or so.

Please release this LG so we can get on with an owners thread where these types will have to put up or shut up.

Thanks.
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post #1928 of 3193 Old 10-24-2014, 01:21 AM
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Originally Posted by mo949 View Post
Doesn't get much more boring than that in OLED land.

You've got one guy that doesn't understand basic television controls and you've got the other that insists on doing basic arithmetic every other post or so.

Please release this LG so we can get on with an owners thread where these types will have to put up or shut up.

Thanks.
My sincerest apologies for trying to be informative to anybody that might have had questions like myself in the (Anticipation) thread.
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post #1929 of 3193 Old 10-24-2014, 06:14 AM
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post
I know, but it's really just a reality check... (See below)



My words are probably not precise enough in the post. I am sincerely hopeful that the first phase will be up and running very soon. I am firmly convinced the third phase (of M2) will not hit full production in 2015. Period.



It's definitely for me. I'm sincerely hoping my 2012 65" plasma keeps being fabulous until the 77" OLED hits it's fourth "tick" of 30% reductions from here, +/-. It's rather hard to defend even that ~$6K price given you can -- today -- buy a very decent 80" TV for $3000 and we are talking about 3-4 years from today in all likelihood. But for what I'd consider an "ultimate" TV, I'd put that price in the acceptable range. And I'm confident that price will be achieved.

I feel the same about my D-Nice tweaked 141. I would love to try to fit a 77 OLED on my wall, but not at these prices or curved. Hopefully in another 2 years.
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post #1930 of 3193 Old 10-24-2014, 07:18 AM
 
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Originally Posted by mo949 View Post
Doesn't get much more boring than that in OLED land.

You've got one guy that doesn't understand basic television controls and you've got the other that insists on doing basic arithmetic every other post or so.

Please release this LG so we can get on with an owners thread where these types will have to put up or shut up.

I don't understand. That insistence on "basic arithmetic" has to do with figuring out what to expect from LG on this particular display. A model thread isn't all about how to turn it on and find the Netflix options.

I think AVS has given far too much credence to this notion of "owners only" threads. The very notion lacks credibility.
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post #1931 of 3193 Old 10-24-2014, 08:37 AM
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Originally Posted by JWhip View Post
I feel the same about my D-Nice tweaked 141. I would love to try to fit a 77 OLED on my wall, but not at these prices or curved. Hopefully in another 2 years.
Well I have a Samsung 8500 LED that was one of first with full back light but it was unwatchable until D-Nice did a calibration and then it was amazing.Can you imagine what a calibration from him on the 65 Oled will be like?Now that will be the real display of the decade if it ever gets released.

Matt
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post #1932 of 3193 Old 10-24-2014, 09:39 AM
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My sincerest apologies for trying to be informative to anybody that might have had questions like myself in the (Anticipation) thread.
It seems I must apologize to you if you think my post relates to you in anyway; it definitely does not. Its clear you know how to use a TV
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post #1933 of 3193 Old 10-24-2014, 10:01 AM
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Originally Posted by Oled Kidd View Post
My sincerest apologies for trying to be informative to anybody that might have had questions like myself in the (Anticipation) thread.
It seems I must apologize to you if you think my post relates to you in anyway; it definitely does not. Its clear you know how to use a TV
I was actually referencing the part of basic arithmetic and took that in context of you saying how I post multiple Reviews of this set.
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post #1934 of 3193 Old 10-24-2014, 11:29 AM
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LG Display reported quarterly results overnight. They reiterated "OLED is the future business" and they would be supplying panels to companies in China and Japan next year.
Do you have a source for this, @ynotgoal ? Neither the LGD Q3 2014 Press Release ( http://www.lgdisplay.com/eng/prcente...icleMgtNo=4727 ) nor the transcript of the subsequent Earnings Call ( http://seekingalpha.com/article/2587...pt?part=single ) make any mention.

I, dabotsonline / Nicholas Polydor, am part of Panasonic UK's 'VIERA VIP Club': a group of six bloggers and forum posters receiving special access to information and events for the TV product range. Costs for activities are covered by Panasonic (no cash is involved). However, I can assure that this will never compromise my integrity or objectivity as an ethical conscience is something I have always and will forever hold very dear to my heart.
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post #1935 of 3193 Old 10-24-2014, 12:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Oled Kidd View Post
To any gamers out there that were wondering about this sets gaming capabilities here is an excellent review that details their gaming experience. Now if I could just get a review on uniformity and 3D as well as calibration I would be completely sold.


http://www.kotaku.com.au/2014/10/pc-...-ultra-hd-tvs/
Terrible review. Doesn't have any input lag measurements, nor mentions motion resolution or screen darkening when game camera is moved.
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post #1936 of 3193 Old 10-24-2014, 12:54 PM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post
So, what do you think 2014 sales will be? I think we'd agree, "Not 100,000 worldwide" right?

If so, 700,000 -- let's just use that number without critiquing it -- would be an 8-10x increase in one year. And that increase would occur while production facilities that don't really exist yet (in terms of being active) are ramping up to functional. That sounds reasonable.

What doesn't sound reasonable is 1.5M OLED TVs next year.

When it looked like M2 was hitting phase I in late September, shipping over 100,000 OLEDs in 2014 seemed achievable. Now we are reaching November with no signs that M2 is producing OLEDs yet and so you are correct, probably no way LG ships even 100,00 OLEDs this year.

I still believe there will be a virtual tsunami of OLEDs hitting the market once M2 hits phase I and we will know immediately because of dramatic (and 'unexpected') price drops. I believe LG had already teed all of that up with the $2000 MicroCenter 'mistake' price on the 55" and the $6500 'leaked' price on the 65".

But now it is all on hold until further notice. My guess is that they have decided to try to string things along using the M1 pilot line while they resolve whatever snag has been encountered at M2. LG apparently did not want to manufacture 4K TVs on M1, but now they may be forced to. I can't find any other rationale for the increased price of the 65EC9700 - if those were coming off of M2 there would be a flood of them, even if yields were cut in half or a third. On M1, they produce only a single 65" OLED per half-Gen8 sheet, so they are very expensive to manufacture and there will not be many of them.

So I suppose I'm still holding out hope that once whatever M2 production problems have been resolved, LG will be back on track with the "reduced prices and increased volumes" plan. But I agree, getting to a million or more OLEDs in 2015 is starting to look out of reach. They will probably not kick off the expansion to phase II until they have consolidated sustainable demand for the phase I production of ~40,000 OLEDs per month and 40,000 is probably more than the cumulative number of OLEDs LG has sold over the past year (since day 1).

Heck, stepping back from the disappointment, LG went from selling thousands of OLEDs in 2013 to selling 10s of thousands of OLEDs this year to probably selling 100s of thousands of OLEDs in 2015 and hopefully selling 1-2 million in 2016 - that is nothing to be ashamed of and a pretty respectable ramp.

It's just noise-level in the overall context of the worldwide TV market (< 1% two years from now).
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post #1937 of 3193 Old 10-24-2014, 01:20 PM
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Originally Posted by beerninja View Post
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Originally Posted by Oled Kidd View Post
To any gamers out there that were wondering about this sets gaming capabilities here is an excellent review that details their gaming experience. Now if I could just get a review on uniformity and 3D as well as calibration I would be completely sold.


http://www.kotaku.com.au/2014/10/pc-...-ultra-hd-tvs/
Terrible review. Doesn't have any input lag measurements, nor mentions motion resolution or screen darkening when game camera is moved.
While what you mentioned is true, saying it's a terrible review is far fetched. One of my main criterion for gaming on this was picture quality. As well as upscaled gaming. While there was some major details left it doesn't necessary make it a "terrible" review. Well, at least not by my standards
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post #1938 of 3193 Old 10-24-2014, 03:09 PM
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Heck, stepping back from the disappointment, LG went from selling thousands of OLEDs in 2013 to selling 10s of thousands of OLEDs this year to probably selling 100s of thousands of OLEDs in 2015 and hopefully selling 1-2 million in 2016 - that is nothing to be ashamed of and a pretty respectable ramp.
That was actually what I was getting at. None of that is bad, even if it's all -- again -- behind some schedule they once hoped/believed they'd achieve.

It makes 2017 a particularly interesting year for two reasons, I think:

1) It would likely be the time an "M3" line was reaching production quantities of note.

2) It would likely be the time Kateeva-based TVs start arriving in interesting numbers for someone -- if that's destined to happen.

That might be the year when it becomes apparent OLED is taking over the high end of the TV market. How far it can push down the price curve from there to own most of the premium segment will be something we won't have a very clear picture of until then, though.

There's a saying about "everything in moderation". If only it was applied to well, you know...
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post #1939 of 3193 Old 10-24-2014, 03:54 PM
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Originally Posted by dabotsonline View Post
Do you have a source for this, @ynotgoal ? Neither the LGD Q3 2014 Press Release ( http://www.lgdisplay.com/eng/prcente...icleMgtNo=4727 ) nor the transcript of the subsequent Earnings Call ( http://seekingalpha.com/article/2587...pt?part=single ) make any mention.
Apologies in advance to those looking only for the 65" set discussion.

As you know, LG Display is the panel maker so when they speak of customers they are not referring to you and me but to TV set makers like LG Electronics, Skyworth, Sony, etc. Also, LG Display hosts a conference call in Korean first then later they have the English call.

In the earnings call link you provided in response to a question from Andrew Abrams they talk about having volume in the next 2 to 3 quarters to "diversify our customer base". In the earlier Korean call they specifically said they are currently supplying panels to China customers and expect to do so in Japan next year. Here's a link to a Korean article titled: LG Display "OLED supply major markets such as Japan next year, expanding". It also has a quote about "confidence in the future of OLED business".
http://www.yonhapnews.co.kr/economy/...171900003.HTML

They also gave an update on the current status and plans. It seems they view phase 1 as the pilot line and expect to ramp phase 2 at the end of this year with phase 3 at the end of next year. The result would be 14k sheets at the end of this year and 34k at the end of next year.

As for the longer term, there is an interesting discussion at the end of the call in the link you provided where they talk about costs compared to LCD. Some of the key words were marked as "indiscernible" but they say the back light unit of the LCD display is 40-50% of the cost of materials in an LCD which, of course, is not in an OLED TV. The cost of materials in OLED is significantly less than LCD. The fixed cost of OLED is currently higher due to the high cost of manufacturing equipment (they are in effect paying to develop the equipment). They note that as they (and I would say also others) buy more equipment those costs decline. In the next round of investment they expect OLED equipment to be not much higher than LCD equipment.

So, analysts expect the 55" OLED to be about $2,000 at the end of 2015 or start of 2016 when M2 is fully ramped. Once an M3 line starts OLED will probably be priced similar to LCD.

So, volumes will grow next year but it will still be high end of the market. There isn't a requirement to meet this or that price or volume by Black Friday or Super Bowl or whatever. It will take time to get into the market in a big way but it will happen.
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post #1940 of 3193 Old 10-24-2014, 04:27 PM
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Terrible review. Doesn't have any input lag measurements, nor mentions motion resolution or screen darkening when game camera is moved.
Have to agree. No mention of input lag or any comparison to well performing gaming TV's like the Sony TV's.
We all know about the high input lag of the latest LG 4K TV's, so there's legitimate fear that the 4K OLED's might not do any better.
Looks like the author seems to care more about 4K than OLED. After experiencing the 4K OLED, he's thinking about buying a cheap 40" LG 4K TV. Say hello to crappy blacks.
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post #1941 of 3193 Old 10-24-2014, 08:18 PM
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Best Buy just sent me a new delivery date!



"Hello Christian,

We have rescheduled the appointment of your item(s) below. Your new appointment is Tuesday, December 9, 2014."

Reciever: DENON AVR-X7200WA using 7.2.4 with two center speakers (one behind the screen and one below it).
Amplifier: Emotiva XPA-5 Gen1
Projector: Xiaomi UST Laser Projector 4k (2019 edition).
My current setup: https://imgur.com/gallery/RnRc98a
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post #1942 of 3193 Old 10-24-2014, 08:36 PM - Thread Starter
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Best Buy just sent me a new delivery date!



"Hello Christian,

We have rescheduled the appointment of your item(s) below. Your new appointment is Tuesday, December 9, 2014."


The whole history would be interesting - when did you place your order, what was the original delivery date, and how many different delivery dates have you been given?
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post #1943 of 3193 Old 10-24-2014, 08:50 PM
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Best Buy just sent me a new delivery date!



"Hello Christian,

We have rescheduled the appointment of your item(s) below. Your new appointment is Tuesday, December 9, 2014."

"So you're saying there's a chance.........."


lol - hang in there. It's better than a cancellation notice.

Benq HT3550/LG OLED65B6P /Panny UB820 4k Bluray/Apple TV 4k
Nvidia Shield/HDFury AVRkey/Samsung HW-K950 Soundbar
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post #1944 of 3193 Old 10-24-2014, 08:54 PM
 
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Actual launch: 2015

In this race, I'm rooting for both LG and Vizio to make it happen, the 2 most unlikely brands I'd ever expect to represent the pinnacle of PQ a little over a year ago.

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post #1945 of 3193 Old 10-24-2014, 09:17 PM
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Vultur, you mean the two 'most' unlikely brands.
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post #1946 of 3193 Old 10-24-2014, 09:29 PM
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If this keeps up, they'll do it like Square did with FF XV and present it as the "new 65EC9750" at the CES in January.
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post #1947 of 3193 Old 10-24-2014, 10:23 PM - Thread Starter
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Apologies in advance to those looking only for the 65" set discussion.

As you know, LG Display is the panel maker so when they speak of customers they are not referring to you and me but to TV set makers like LG Electronics, Skyworth, Sony, etc. Also, LG Display hosts a conference call in Korean first then later they have the English call.

In the earnings call link you provided in response to a question from Andrew Abrams they talk about having volume in the next 2 to 3 quarters to "diversify our customer base". In the earlier Korean call they specifically said they are currently supplying panels to China customers and expect to do so in Japan next year. Here's a link to a Korean article titled: LG Display "OLED supply major markets such as Japan next year, expanding". It also has a quote about "confidence in the future of OLED business".
http://www.yonhapnews.co.kr/economy/...171900003.HTML

They also gave an update on the current status and plans. It seems they view phase 1 as the pilot line and expect to ramp phase 2 at the end of this year with phase 3 at the end of next year. The result would be 14k sheets at the end of this year and 34k at the end of next year.

As for the longer term, there is an interesting discussion at the end of the call in the link you provided where they talk about costs compared to LCD. Some of the key words were marked as "indiscernible" but they say the back light unit of the LCD display is 40-50% of the cost of materials in an LCD which, of course, is not in an OLED TV. The cost of materials in OLED is significantly less than LCD. The fixed cost of OLED is currently higher due to the high cost of manufacturing equipment (they are in effect paying to develop the equipment). They note that as they (and I would say also others) buy more equipment those costs decline. In the next round of investment they expect OLED equipment to be not much higher than LCD equipment.

So, analysts expect the 55" OLED to be about $2,000 at the end of 2015 or start of 2016 when M2 is fully ramped. Once an M3 line starts OLED will probably be priced similar to LCD.

So, volumes will grow next year but it will still be high end of the market. There isn't a requirement to meet this or that price or volume by Black Friday or Super Bowl or whatever. It will take time to get into the market in a big way but it will happen.

I read the google translation of the link you provided but found no reference to many of the details you highlight above. On the other hand, I did see this (which sounds like a cause for concern):

"We have to be considerably slower than the usual seasonal first half of next year," said the worsening performance concerns for the first half of next year due to the seasonality IR plays Kim, Hee - Yun, managing director of LG Display.
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post #1948 of 3193 Old 10-25-2014, 01:44 AM
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Originally Posted by ynotgoal View Post
As for the longer term, there is an interesting discussion at the end of the call in the link you provided where they talk about costs compared to LCD. Some of the key words were marked as "indiscernible" but they say the back light unit of the LCD display is 40-50% of the cost of materials in an LCD which, of course, is not in an OLED TV. The cost of materials in OLED is significantly less than LCD.
I can't tell if this is intentionally facile, naive, or just dumb. The cost to produce a product is not merely a function of the cost of materials. It's the cost of materials + the "cost" of the processes involved in terms of throughput, yield, etc.

A good way to understand this is to create a synthetic example.

Let's take good A. It has 3 parts. They all snap together and cost $1 each. The assembly takes basically no time and so it essentially costs $3 to make an "A." (Near zero labor costs)

Now let's look at good B. It has two parts. They cost $1 each too. They, however, need to be gently fitted together. It takes several minutes to fit them together and sometimes you break the part putting them together. How much does it cost us to make a "B"? This isn't a quiz by the way. We don't know, except that it isn't $2. In fact, it could easily be more than $3.

Every time LG explains OLED as "good B" and neglects to talk about anything other than the components cost $2 and ... cheaper, they honestly come across as fools. I'm not going to quote anyone directly here, but when I've spoken to other OLED players, I get a much more realistic perspective on OLED TVs than this kind of nonsense.
Quote:
The fixed cost of OLED is currently higher due to the high cost of manufacturing equipment (they are in effect paying to develop the equipment). They note that as they (and I would say also others) buy more equipment those costs decline. In the next round of investment they expect OLED equipment to be not much higher than LCD equipment.
And, again, equipment -- which has a cost association through depreciation, amortization, etc. with each display -- matters. And so the discussion of it makes me confounded because it sounds like someone is taking the conversation seriously. That makes me further question the nonsense above. Every time they said "no backlight" I half expect some LCD manufacturer to scream out from Taiwan, "Yeah, well no ridiculously expensive OLED material being vapor deposited where tons of it are wasted, so shut up.""
Quote:
So, analysts expect the 55" OLED to be about $2,000 at the end of 2015 or start of 2016 when M2 is fully ramped. Once an M3 line starts OLED will probably be priced similar to LCD.
So you're suggesting OLED will get to $500 once M3 is up? Because that's what an LCD costs.
Quote:
So, volumes will grow next year but it will still be high end of the market. There isn't a requirement to meet this or that price or volume by Black Friday or Super Bowl or whatever. It will take time to get into the market in a big way but it will happen.
What's your projected time frame for that? I'm having a tough time seeing this $500 OLED (or really even it's ~$800 retail variant from the "because it's a branded product and good" files) before 2017-18.

There's a saying about "everything in moderation". If only it was applied to well, you know...
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post #1949 of 3193 Old 10-25-2014, 04:14 AM
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Thumbs down BB Delay Delivery

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Originally Posted by oni222 View Post
Best Buy just sent me a new delivery date!
"Hello Christian,

We have rescheduled the appointment of your item(s) below. Your new appointment is Tuesday, December 9, 2014."
Christian-thanks much for the update. Its helpful to hear from you as it is a good calibration where us less fortunate (can't preorder), may have a glimpse of when the 65EC9700 might be available for order from BB web site. The "coming soon" is frustrating. I can live with the Dec date but I do wonder if it might change again. I am hearing from the BB manager that "maybe" end of Nov so that's in line with your post. I for one will wait for this new TV!
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post #1950 of 3193 Old 10-25-2014, 07:01 AM
 
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that all folks.......

No OLED for me. Canada will not get units until around april-may

My dealer offered me a 79" LG9800ub for now and I can swap it for the 65 OLED when it comes out. I would not lose any money this way, but I'd have to live with the 79" model which doesn't really have great black levels and really doesn't compare to the OLED at all.

Or, get the Panasonic AX900 and hope for the best. It also has passive 3D at 4k which is really nice.

Or, get the Samsung F8500 64" plasma and wait it out. The only thing I'd really be missing is 4k and passive 3D, but with little 4k content available.....

Or, go with 55" OLED, with the negatives of it being small, and only half res 3D.

What do you guys think?
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