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post #31 of 156 Old 07-28-2014, 03:09 PM
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Originally Posted by 8mile13 View Post
01 may 2014 sony cuts profit forecasts after blu-ray disappointment, here
Ah yes... The lie if repeated often enough, eventually becomes true. Sony issues fiscal guidance that their optical disc business is not meeting expectations and somehow it's all blu-ray's fault when people are overlooking the sales of CDs and DVDs, or perhaps what their competitors are doing.
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post #32 of 156 Old 07-28-2014, 03:15 PM
 
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When is Blu-ray 16K comin'?
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post #33 of 156 Old 07-28-2014, 05:44 PM
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Originally Posted by Stereodude View Post
Ah yes... The lie if repeated often enough, eventually becomes true. Sony issues fiscal guidance that their optical disc business is not meeting expectations and somehow it's all blu-ray's fault when people are overlooking the sales of CDs and DVDs, or perhaps what their competitors are doing.
here is another article on the subject.


''In any case, any reasonable amount of growth in blu-ray is unlikely to prevent what will next year become a decade of decline for a once-thriving disc market.''
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post #34 of 156 Old 07-28-2014, 05:57 PM
 
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...Back to our local Theaters (Cineplex Movie houses)... ...And IMAX 3D Cinemas with 4K and Dolby Atmos (or Auro 3D).
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post #35 of 156 Old 07-28-2014, 06:48 PM
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What to do while waiting?

Think of a new name for it. Blue ray as you call it, or blu-ray or bluray, all mediocre. Blue without the E, so what. Needs a name 4 times as good as that. 4K Ray? Spells out the difference clearly. How about UVD, Ultra Violet Disk? Much more sciencey and evocative than Blu.

And for the pessimists, No-Way Ray.
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post #36 of 156 Old 07-28-2014, 07:19 PM
 
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post #37 of 156 Old 07-29-2014, 09:20 AM
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Originally Posted by 5x10 View Post
both of these dont bode well for physical players
online streaming isnt 1080p, but it appears the masses dont care as streaming up way up and blu ray is way down
im not saying that there wont be a 4k player, im saying i dont think theres nearly as much of an incentive to create one when you could possibly stream the UHD content
then, you have bandwidth issues

I think you've misread the articles. Blu-Ray sales are up. Just not up as much as some would have hoped. It's total disc sales that are down because DVD sales are way down. Not too surprising as you can easily get DVD quality from streaming while Blu-ray quality is hit or miss.


4K Blu-ray is all but guaranteed. There's no way 4K TVs will sell without a 4K disc player. While your average consumer may not care as much about a 4K player, those shopping for a 4K TV will.
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post #38 of 156 Old 07-29-2014, 04:54 PM
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Originally Posted by KidHorn View Post

4K Blu-ray is all but guaranteed. There's no way 4K TVs will sell without a 4K disc player. While your average consumer may not care as much about a 4K player, those shopping for a 4K TV will.
You're just mistaken on what I believe are many levels.

1) "4K Blu-ray is all but guaranteed"

Um, maybe... But we'll have gone another year without it in 2014. There is no talk from the BDA that it's imminent. There is no talk from studios that it's imminent. It can't hurt any existing products, yet there is no talk about it -- at all.

2) "While your average consumer may not care as much about a 4K player, those shopping for a 4K TV will"

This is just... I dunno. Your average consumer is going to be buying a 4K TV within 2-3 years with or without 4K BluRay. Your existing 4K buyer is already buying one without it. The 4K TV forecasts I've read do not assume anything about a disc format coming, they just assume that 4K product will get cheaper, eventually equally 100% of high-end TVs, eventually then encompass the midrange, eventually just get bought... In the meantime, 100% of 4K TVs sold have been sold without any promise of there ever being a 4K disc format.

-----

Incidentally -- and this is directed at no one in particular -- the absolute death of disc rental among the world's advanced economies has been devastating to the prospect of disc formats, both present and future. Netflix is currently in the process of shutting down its disc rental business in a multi-year phase out where you will hear them announce one quarter -- once the contribution of discs falls below some magic threshold they already know -- that they are dumping the business. Redbox continues to tread water, but has not added 3D and won't be adding 4K to already crowded boxes where the bulk of rentals are still DVD -- and not BluRay.

In the UK, it's been similarly bad and the story is playing out elsewhere. Every physical format has gotten off the ground only with the help of a robust rental infrastructure. There will not be one for 4k BluRay even if it happens. That, in my mind, actually guarantees it will fail to catch fire. It is at most a niche product for an ever smaller niche of videophiles who believe "ownership" requires the physical disc.

I personally no longer even want 4K BluRay. I want a 4K digital format that ideally I can cache locally. It seems likely Apple, Vudu, Google, et al. might well provide such a thing within a few years. And it will offer more convenience than 4K BluRay ever would. With Apple's sudden embrace of "extras", those will even be present for those of you that care.
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post #39 of 156 Old 07-29-2014, 05:01 PM
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post
You're just mistaken on what I believe are many levels.

1) "4K Blu-ray is all but guaranteed"

Um, maybe... But we'll have gone another year without it in 2014. There is no talk from the BDA that it's imminent. There is no talk from studios that it's imminent. It can't hurt any existing products, yet there is no talk about it -- at all.

2) "While your average consumer may not care as much about a 4K player, those shopping for a 4K TV will"

This is just... I dunno. Your average consumer is going to be buying a 4K TV within 2-3 years with or without 4K BluRay. Your existing 4K buyer is already buying one without it. The 4K TV forecasts I've read do not assume anything about a disc format coming, they just assume that 4K product will get cheaper, eventually equally 100% of high-end TVs, eventually then encompass the midrange, eventually just get bought... In the meantime, 100% of 4K TVs sold have been sold without any promise of there ever being a 4K disc format.

Though with the promise of some 4K streaming content from Netflix (regardless of what that ends up translating into in terms of bandwidth-dependent quality).


Who know, perhaps the eventual dominance of 4K TVs will spur increased demand for BlurRay and hasten the demise of DVDs...


(but I agree - 4K Blueray? not likely before LG has sold well over 1,000,000 WOLED TVs :-)
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post #40 of 156 Old 07-29-2014, 05:27 PM
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If the CE makers are counting on UHD streaming from Netflix to sell UHD sets in the US they're truly and utterly delusional. They had better have some reasonable plan up their sleeves to get UHD content to consumers or UHD TVs are just going to be the next fad to fade. I'm not saying the plan has to be or will be UHD Blu-ray, but internet streaming isn't going to drive anything remotely close to mass adoption.
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post #41 of 156 Old 07-29-2014, 06:28 PM
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post #42 of 156 Old 07-29-2014, 07:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Maltby View Post
What to do while waiting?

Think of a new name for it. Blue ray as you call it, or blu-ray or bluray, all mediocre. Blue without the E, so what. Needs a name 4 times as good as that. 4K Ray? Spells out the difference clearly. How about UVD, Ultra Violet Disk? Much more sciencey and evocative than Blu.

And for the pessimists, No-Way Ray.
I like your train of thought. Rename it Ultra High Definition DVD (UHD-DVD) and call it a day. The name HD-DVD always was much clearer and less confusing than Blu-Ray for the masses. UHDDD (Ultra Hi Def Digital Disk) is even better IMO. To the ops question though. Buy the most FALD display you can handle...as cheap as you can get it. Spend the rest of your money on the Oppo BD 103D with Darbee and you won't need anything else until they do 16K. IMO Darbee will do much more for you than just adding more pixels.
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post #43 of 156 Old 07-30-2014, 01:59 AM
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Originally Posted by NorthSky View Post
When is Blu-ray 16K comin'?
Do you think that the next thing after we have 8K displays will be another rectangular display but with 16K instead?

Blu-ray 4K is a bad name really since it should allow more than just 4K (other UHD parameters than just pixel res). But with more than one UHD TV format, I'm not sure calling it UHD and only allowing up to 3840x2160 (UHD1) is a good idea either. Also, what are the Japanese going to store their 7680x4320p120 content on if the next Blu-ray only supports up to 3840x2160?
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post #44 of 156 Old 07-30-2014, 02:38 AM
 
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About ten years ago, in The Perfect Vision magazine, I read an article about Ultra High Definition Moving Picture Reproduction. ...And they mentioned 16K. ...Might have some' to do with the Japanese too.
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post #45 of 156 Old 07-30-2014, 07:53 PM
 
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Originally Posted by rogo View Post
While there may be a 4K BluRay product, it's not going to become mainstream. And I don't expect much in the way of software support. But more importantly, there'll be less in the way of distribution infrastructure (no Netflix or Redbox rentals, few retail sales points).

Sadly, this seems destined to not happen -- at least not in a major way. Maybe as a fringe format like Superbit.
Hey, haven't seen you post in awhile. Let's be honest here. Sony controls the future of 4K content. They have the hardware and media connections to make it happen. I know they would prefer to keep it digital download only for a variety of reasons. However, they will soon be realize their distribution business model is unattainable with current US infrastructure. In Japan, 4K distribution with Sharp's new VIXIS 4K decoder has begun and it looks like the average bit-stream they are using is more 35-40MB than the inferior Netflix 18-20Mb bit-stream. This is going to prove problematic, as the average US internet speed is around 16-18MB. There is also the problem of downloading as ISP will throttle and data cap once everyone starts streaming and downloading huge 100Gb files. Also, you quickly run into storage problems as 4K movies start clocking in closer to 100GB each, once additional data like higher frame rates and WCG, HDR, Dolby Vision, Atmos etc. are thrown in. Finally, as with XB1 and PS4 there is a portion of consumers that demand a physical format. I actually expected them to see the light a lot sooner and even though there hasn't been much news about 4K blu-ray, I would expect some movement once the final specs are ratified by the BDA later this year. So best case scenario, BDA final specs later this year, prototypes at CES 2015 and then maybe product for Christmas 2015.
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post #46 of 156 Old 07-30-2014, 09:18 PM
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For me, I decided that size - significantly bigger than my 60" - is the next HT-high for me. Given that, I see three options:

1. 2-3k Sharp or Vizio 80"

Doesn't work for me as I have a history of being unhappy when I go cheap, be it shoes, suits, steaks, or TVs.

2. 4-6k Sharp 80" or 75" Samsung 8550

Still the fall back, but at this point I'm pretty focused on option 3.

3. 5-10k big screen 4k. My finalists are... Samsung curved 78" 9000 (8k)... Curve doesn't do it for me, though. Samsung 85" 8550 (9-10k)... A bit out of my price range. Sony 79" X900B (7-8k)... Winner winner chicken dinner, though I am doing some last minute waffling.

LG UB 9800 also has a 79" (7-8k) and 84" (9-10k).

Check out Citivas' "79"+ options" thread for more detail.
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post #47 of 156 Old 07-31-2014, 06:18 AM
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Hey, haven't seen you post in awhile. Let's be honest here. Sony controls the future of 4K content. They have the hardware and media connections to make it happen. I know they would prefer to keep it digital download only for a variety of reasons. However, they will soon be realize their distribution business model is unattainable with current US infrastructure. In Japan, 4K distribution with Sharp's new VIXIS 4K decoder has begun and it looks like the average bit-stream they are using is more 35-40MB than the inferior Netflix 18-20Mb bit-stream. This is going to prove problematic, as the average US internet speed is around 16-18MB. There is also the problem of downloading as ISP will throttle and data cap once everyone starts streaming and downloading huge 100Gb files. Also, you quickly run into storage problems as 4K movies start clocking in closer to 100GB each, once additional data like higher frame rates and WCG, HDR, Dolby Vision, Atmos etc. are thrown in. Finally, as with XB1 and PS4 there is a portion of consumers that demand a physical format. I actually expected them to see the light a lot sooner and even though there hasn't been much news about 4K blu-ray, I would expect some movement once the final specs are ratified by the BDA later this year. So best case scenario, BDA final specs later this year, prototypes at CES 2015 and then maybe product for Christmas 2015.
Hope your vision is correct. For 2k BD first players and disc's hit the street about 6 months after the spec was published.
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post #48 of 156 Old 08-01-2014, 08:27 AM
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Hard to believe that the studios and the CE manufacturers would ignore what is a potential gold mine. But I suppose studios are seriously debating whether it's worth the cost of re-scanning all of the titles in their catalogs for sale on optical discs. And the CE manufacturers may fear consumer backlash if the new UHD BD players cannot be made backwards-compatible with DVDs, or worse yet, standard BDs.
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post #49 of 156 Old 08-02-2014, 12:31 AM
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How about calling it Blu Max? :-)
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post #50 of 156 Old 08-02-2014, 12:44 AM
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I don't think those of you who believe this is coming in 1-2 years or more understand how quickly the physical media business is imploding. It's not going to "stage a comeback" on the strength of a format that people are barely going to detect the advantage of.

"As per a recent survey conducted by Generator Research, the sale of DVD and Blu-Ray in Home Entertainment industry is likely to decrease by 38% in next 4 years. And Online Movie Revenue is expected to grow by 260%, as it will touch $12.7 billion mark from $3.5 billion by 2018."

Source: http://storageservers.wordpress.com/...deo-on-demand/

"In fact, where popular DVDs regularly sold over 6-10 million US copies a year - and still do - only four Blu-ray's (Avatar, Avengers, Dark Knight Rises, Despicable Me 2) have broken the 3 million US sales in a calendar year."

Source: http://www.zdnet.com/whatever-happen...ay-7000028895/

"In any case, any reasonable amount of growth in Blu-ray is unlikely to prevent what will next year become a decade of decline for a once-thriving disc market....2013 was another record year for the theatrical box office, [but] disc sales fell 9.3% to $7.47B while disc rental spending declined 8.8% to $4.27B."

Source: http://www.deadline.com/2014/01/with...estly-in-2013/

Buying movies on discs is looking a lot like the CD business. It's in permanent, secular decline.

Nothing revived music buying. I'm sorry to tell you all this because I'm a videophile like you, but 4K is a mirage to most people. They can't begin to understand why "HD isn't good enough." They are not coming back to discs for a 4K format.

As for streaming, I agree that Netflix's offering is not good enough. But I don't agree that landline ISPs are going to keep capping bandwidth in a way that makes movie streaming impossible down the road. First of all, Comcast has had this message on most accounts for more than 2 years now: "Note: Enforcement of the 250GB data consumption threshold is currently suspended." Second of all, everyone knows landline bandwidth is costless to provide. It's not actually constrained like cellular/mobile bandwidth.

I realize Comcast is just one ISP, but they will have about 1 in 3 broadband accounts once the TWC merger is approved (seems likely). Their footprint means a lot of people have to compete with them (incl. importantly Uverse and Fios).

I mean, I'm not saying no one ever is going to be charged for bandwidth again -- because they likely will -- but the idea you won't be able to stream a couple of higher quality 4K movies per month seems wrong to me.
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post #51 of 156 Old 08-02-2014, 08:54 AM
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^ Mark: Is there any reliable source of information on DVD/BD profitability? None of your sources or anyone else's I have seen provide this. IMO as long as the incremental revenue from DVD/BD sales exceeds the incremental cost of production and marketing, the studios will continue to sell DVD/BD. If their sales are incrementally profitable, the studio bottom line profit increases and this is the main driver of exec bonuses.

Regarding ISPs, I would be very happy and stop buying DVD/BDs if I could buy/rent a movie, series etc., download it to my local storage (quickly) and watch when convenient IF the PQ was reasonably close to that found on disc. Never seen that, even VHS was better than SD cable/sat.

Finally, my "everyone" doesn't know that landline bandwidth is costless to provide. The "last mile" on my cable has all the cable channels and internet along with phone service on the same thin copper wire. Bright House had to use SDV to increase the number of cable channels before they started dropping analog. Phone company internet over their copper is far slower. How are we going to get the bandwidth for all this added capacity required to support vast increases in 2k and 4k streaming/download to local storage without someone paying for it?
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post #52 of 156 Old 08-03-2014, 02:06 PM - Thread Starter
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I don't buy DVD's any more because of Netflix. If a similar streaming or 4K disc delivery service were available for 4K, I would use it. EXCEPT, despite what Comcast tells me about my download speeds (50 Mbps theoretically), My netflix movies still drop a 1080 signal back to SD on occasion. We will need a MUCH more reliable high speed internet in this country for real-time streaming before physical media can go away. However, suppose that Netflix (or someone else) used the Sony media center idea where a 4K movie or TV show could be "ordered up" a little in advance to allow the buffering to get ahead of the viewing, I'd buy that. Yes, I know that's what Sony is doing, but it's movies only and PPV. I'd like a similar option on a subscription basis for both movies and TV. Are TV shows being mastered in 4K, now? Here's a great way to go a la cart to beat the cable companies: someone invent a service offering a la cart broadcast, basic cable and premium channels in 4K for buffering download over the internet. Buy a "Tivo-like" season pass to the 4K shows you want, a la cart.
Download at reasonable speeds in advance and the customer watches whenever the customer wants to. Just like Tivo--a limit on storage capacity, so you've got to stay relatively current to add new programs.
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post #53 of 156 Old 08-04-2014, 01:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rogo View Post
I don't think those of you who believe this is coming in 1-2 years or more understand how quickly the physical media business is imploding. It's not going to "stage a comeback" on the strength of a format that people are barely going to detect the advantage of.

"As per a recent survey conducted by Generator Research, the sale of DVD and Blu-Ray in Home Entertainment industry is likely to decrease by 38% in next 4 years. And Online Movie Revenue is expected to grow by 260%, as it will touch $12.7 billion mark from $3.5 billion by 2018."

Source: http://storageservers.wordpress.com/...deo-on-demand/

"In fact, where popular DVDs regularly sold over 6-10 million US copies a year - and still do - only four Blu-ray's (Avatar, Avengers, Dark Knight Rises, Despicable Me 2) have broken the 3 million US sales in a calendar year."

Source: http://www.zdnet.com/whatever-happen...ay-7000028895/

"In any case, any reasonable amount of growth in Blu-ray is unlikely to prevent what will next year become a decade of decline for a once-thriving disc market....2013 was another record year for the theatrical box office, [but] disc sales fell 9.3% to $7.47B while disc rental spending declined 8.8% to $4.27B."

Source: http://www.deadline.com/2014/01/with...estly-in-2013/

Buying movies on discs is looking a lot like the CD business. It's in permanent, secular decline.

Nothing revived music buying. I'm sorry to tell you all this because I'm a videophile like you, but 4K is a mirage to most people. They can't begin to understand why "HD isn't good enough." They are not coming back to discs for a 4K format.

As for streaming, I agree that Netflix's offering is not good enough. But I don't agree that landline ISPs are going to keep capping bandwidth in a way that makes movie streaming impossible down the road. First of all, Comcast has had this message on most accounts for more than 2 years now: "Note: Enforcement of the 250GB data consumption threshold is currently suspended." Second of all, everyone knows landline bandwidth is costless to provide. It's not actually constrained like cellular/mobile bandwidth.

I realize Comcast is just one ISP, but they will have about 1 in 3 broadband accounts once the TWC merger is approved (seems likely). Their footprint means a lot of people have to compete with them (incl. importantly Uverse and Fios).

I mean, I'm not saying no one ever is going to be charged for bandwidth again -- because they likely will -- but the idea you won't be able to stream a couple of higher quality 4K movies per month seems wrong to me.

You're probably correct about the direction disc sales are going, but as long as there's profit to be made there's reason to do it. You also need to look at computer disc drive sales as there will be a market for higher capacity discs. I would guess the production costs for 4K Blu-ray won't much more than for Blu-ray and I haven't read anything about manufacturers that are stopping Blu-ray player production. I also haven't read anything about movie studios not offering new movies on Blu-ray.
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post #54 of 156 Old 08-05-2014, 05:59 PM
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I mean, I'm not saying no one ever is going to be charged for bandwidth again -- because they likely will -- but the idea you won't be able to stream a couple of higher quality 4K movies per month seems wrong to me.
A couple a month? That is not very exciting.

So we have all the movies made in the last ten years already in 4K. We have 4K TVs. We have 4K consumer cameras. And we will only be watching two 4K movies a month?

Any work arounds? What about cutting the data rate in half and doubling the time to capture the stream? Aren't people with 4K cameras going to want some device to burn/watch 4K discs?

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post #55 of 156 Old 08-05-2014, 10:21 PM
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Originally Posted by dsinger View Post
^ Mark: Is there any reliable source of information on DVD/BD profitability? None of your sources or anyone else's I have seen provide this. IMO as long as the incremental revenue from DVD/BD sales exceeds the incremental cost of production and marketing, the studios will continue to sell DVD/BD. If their sales are incrementally profitable, the studio bottom line profit increases and this is the main driver of exec bonuses.

....

Finally, my "everyone" doesn't know that landline bandwidth is costless to provide. The "last mile" on my cable has all the cable channels and internet along with phone service on the same thin copper wire.
Um, businesses don't engage in every single incrementally profitable business. Especially when the profits begin to approach nothing.

And as for bandwidth, the cost to provide you a fully saturated 50 megabit/sec line each month and a nearly empty one is basically the same thing -- so long as the CDN/caching is properly inside the provider's network. So yes, it's zero for your cable company. And my point was about incremental bandwidth, not a pointless discussion of DSL vs. cable.

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Originally Posted by KidHorn View Post
You're probably correct about the direction disc sales are going, but as long as there's profit to be made there's reason to do it. You also need to look at computer disc drive sales as there will be a market for higher capacity discs. I would guess the production costs for 4K Blu-ray won't much more than for Blu-ray and I haven't read anything about manufacturers that are stopping Blu-ray player production. I also haven't read anything about movie studios not offering new movies on Blu-ray.
Sorry, but computers are not driving any of this. Maybe your analog is valid, but removable media storage has already died there. And, by the way, the "demand for higher capacity" is more or less over on computers, though it exists in the cloud and datacenters.

As for "profit" from 4K, where is that coming from? The big buyers of discs historically have been Blockbuster and video chains, Netflix, Redbox. One is gone, the other two won't be buying 4K discs.

I cannot math out a scenario where in the next 3-4 years a tiny population of 4K TV owners buying a tiny amount of 4K players and discs makes a market.

And I cannot see any scenario where a disc-based format is even marginally interesting to all but the fringe 3-4 years from now.

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A couple a month? That is not very exciting.

So we have all the movies made in the last ten years already in 4K. We have 4K TVs. We have 4K consumer cameras. And we will only be watching two 4K movies a month?

Any work arounds? What about cutting the data rate in half and doubling the time to capture the stream? Aren't people with 4K cameras going to want some device to burn/watch 4K discs?
Would you feel better if I said several?
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post #56 of 156 Old 08-06-2014, 11:31 PM
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I hate to say it but I have to agree with Rogo on this one. Just look at the music CD business as an example of how this is likely to play out. Movie discs will eventually suffer the same fate.
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post #57 of 156 Old 08-07-2014, 12:34 AM
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If disks are dead then why do the brand new PS4 and Xbox1 come with blu-ray drives?
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post #58 of 156 Old 08-07-2014, 08:03 AM
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If disks are dead then why do the brand new PS4 and Xbox1 come with blu-ray drives?
They still make cars with cd players
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post #59 of 156 Old 08-07-2014, 08:16 AM
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Originally Posted by Wizziwig;
I hate to say it but I have to agree with Rogo on this one. Just look at the music CD business as an example of how this is likely to play out. Movie discs will eventually suffer the same fate.
A FLAC album is 300 mb a 4K movie is 100 GB. I do not know if folks are willing to pay for 4K movies and have the patience to download a 100GB movie. Lets say they get 4K quality down to 50 GB, i do not know if folks have the patience to download a 50GB movie either.
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If disks are dead then why do the brand new PS4 and Xbox1 come with blu-ray drives?
They were seriously considering not to include a drive but there was to much opposition. Next time around Microsoft and Sony might not include a drive in their game console.
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post #60 of 156 Old 08-07-2014, 10:41 AM
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When is Blu-ray 16K comin'?
I wonder what 32K would look like but that might be 30 or 40 years down the road
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