Originally Posted by KidHorn
4K Blu-ray is all but guaranteed. There's no way 4K TVs will sell without a 4K disc player. While your average consumer may not care as much about a 4K player, those shopping for a 4K TV will.
You're just mistaken on what I believe are many levels.
1) "4K Blu-ray is all but guaranteed"
Um, maybe... But we'll have gone another year without it in 2014. There is no talk from the BDA that it's imminent. There is no talk from studios that it's imminent. It can't hurt any existing products, yet there is no talk about it -- at all.
2) "While your average consumer may not care as much about a 4K player, those shopping for a 4K TV will"
This is just... I dunno. Your average consumer
is going to be buying a 4K TV within 2-3 years with or without 4K BluRay. Your existing 4K buyer is already buying one without it. The 4K TV forecasts I've read do not assume anything about a disc format coming, they just assume that 4K product will get cheaper, eventually equally 100% of high-end TVs, eventually then encompass the midrange, eventually just get bought... In the meantime, 100% of 4K TVs sold have been sold without any promise of there ever being a 4K disc format.
Incidentally -- and this is directed at no one in particular -- the absolute death of disc rental among the world's advanced economies has been devastating to the prospect of disc formats, both present and future. Netflix is currently in the process of shutting down its disc rental business in a multi-year phase out where you will hear them announce one quarter -- once the contribution of discs falls below some magic threshold they already know -- that they are dumping the business. Redbox continues to tread water, but has not added 3D and won't be adding 4K to already crowded boxes where the bulk of rentals are still DVD -- and not BluRay.
In the UK, it's been similarly bad and the story is playing out elsewhere. Every physical format has gotten off the ground only with the help of a robust rental infrastructure. There will not be one for 4k BluRay even if it happens. That, in my mind, actually guarantees it will fail to catch fire. It is at most a niche product for an ever smaller niche of videophiles who believe "ownership" requires the physical disc.
I personally no longer even want 4K BluRay. I want a 4K digital format that ideally I can cache locally. It seems likely Apple, Vudu, Google, et al. might well provide such a thing within a few years. And it will offer more convenience than 4K BluRay ever would. With Apple's sudden embrace of "extras", those will even be present for those of you that care.