Samsung: No new oled tvs next year - AVS Forum | Home Theater Discussions And Reviews
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post #1 of 47 Old 11-03-2014, 07:46 AM - Thread Starter
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Samsung: No new oled tvs next year

http://www.flatpanelshd.com/news.php...&id=1415007603

"Samsung’s head of the TV business says that the company has no plans to release new OLED TVs in 2014 or 2015. Instead, Samsung will focus on quantum dot LCD TVs and Ultra HD."

I felt after they suddenly ended their production of their first gen. OLED TVS, that it was unlikely that they would ever try again. It is starting to look more and more like they never will.
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post #2 of 47 Old 11-03-2014, 08:00 AM
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It makes their decision to abandon plasma that much more perplexing, unless like you say they don't have plans to re-enter the OLED market at some point. I tend to think they do, but maybe they are waiting to see how it works out for LG.
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post #3 of 47 Old 11-03-2014, 08:49 AM - Thread Starter
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If it works out for LG, then it would be too late for Samsung to jump back in, because they would have to return at the much lower price point that LG had already achieved. On the other hand, if it does not work out for LG, Samsung senior management would have to take that into consideration, along with having had to abort their first effort, it would be hard to convince the senior management to invest in trying it again, and to also convince the retailers who they pulled the rug out from under the first time, to have faith in them a second time.
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post #4 of 47 Old 11-03-2014, 09:43 AM
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Not enough margin, only chance of Samsung jumping back in is buying lg panels
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post #5 of 47 Old 11-03-2014, 12:08 PM
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Not enough margin, only chance of Samsung jumping back in is buying lg panels
I just couldn't see that happening. They are bitter rivals, in S.Korea especially. Samsung using LG panels - very, very unlikely. It is an odd problem though. Samsung betting everything on pushing LED technology, with nothing else even as an option, and LG betting everything on OLED, but at least they're keeping LED as a backup.

I personally think LG are taking the bigger gamble. The economics of LED are well, known, and costs are always coming down (and quality is inching up). Samsung are the biggest TV manufacturer in the world, and already have the LED production lines in place. OLED is very niche, way to expensive for most, and LG WOLED is just a compromise, and is unproven. Reviews of LG OLED's are usually good, but not astounding, but none of the other big manufacturers now seem to be actively going OLED. Maybe they know something LG doesn't.
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post #6 of 47 Old 11-03-2014, 12:14 PM
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Originally Posted by tman247 View Post
I just couldn't see that happening. They are bitter rivals, in S.Korea especially. Samsung using LG panels - very, very unlikely. It is an odd problem though. Samsung betting everything on pushing LED technology, with nothing else even as an option, and LG betting everything on OLED, but at least they're keeping LED as a backup.

I personally think LG are taking the bigger gamble. The economics of LED are well, known, and costs are always coming down (and quality is inching up). Samsung are the biggest TV manufacturer in the world, and already have the LED production lines in place. OLED is very niche, way to expensive for most, and LG WOLED is just a compromise, and is unproven. Reviews of LG OLED's are usually good, but not astounding, but none of the other big manufacturers now seem to be actively going OLED. Maybe they know something LG doesn't.
I'm pretty sure lg is selling oled panels to other tv producers
I do agree that oled still has an uphill battle to compete with the cheaper lcds

If Samsung wont buy lg panels, I don't see them producing oled anytime soon
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post #7 of 47 Old 11-03-2014, 01:28 PM
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disappointing............I have several Samsung's & really like the OLED.........but don't care much for LG

Remembering Dad's passing 01/16/2017


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post #8 of 47 Old 11-03-2014, 01:42 PM
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Originally Posted by RWetmore View Post
It makes their decision to abandon plasma that much more perplexing, unless like you say they don't have plans to re-enter the OLED market at some point. I tend to think they do, but maybe they are waiting to see how it works out for LG.

They could make some people on this planet quite happy with a 2015 G9000 Plasma model.


Final Studio Master Executive Panel in 50, 60 and 70 inch.


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post #9 of 47 Old 11-03-2014, 02:04 PM
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Originally Posted by greenland View Post
http://www.flatpanelshd.com/news.php...&id=1415007603

"Samsung’s head of the TV business says that the company has no plans to release new OLED TVs in 2014 or 2015. Instead, Samsung will focus on quantum dot LCD TVs and Ultra HD."

I felt after they suddenly ended their production of their first gen. OLED TVS, that it was unlikely that they would ever try again. It is starting to look more and more like they never will.
No surprises here. Anyone waiting here for Samsung, Panasonic or Sony to come out with a large screen OLED in the next couple of years...well, enjoy the wait.
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post #10 of 47 Old 11-03-2014, 02:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Bruce2019 View Post
They could make some people on this planet quite happy with a 2015 G9000 Plasma model.


Final Studio Master Executive Panel in 50, 60 and 70 inch.

Indeed. That they abandoned the F8500's originally planed 2014 replacement (I forget the model number) was one of the biggest disappointments, because they probably could have fully stabilized the blacks and got them below 0.001 fl. Not to mention gotten rid of that awful and impractical stand. I still just don't understand their decision to abandon Plasma with no OLED as a replacement. Unless maybe they don't plan to participate in the higher end enthusiast sector of the market anymore.
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post #11 of 47 Old 11-03-2014, 04:48 PM
 
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Can someone explain what is so special about quantum dots? Didn't the sony 65X900a use quantum dots? and it was dimmer then any other LED LCD, and it's blacks were no better for it, and the only thing I noticed was colour saturation was deeper, but that's it.

Can quantum dots block light output from the LED backlight? or enhance contrast, response time, etc? or is it only purely to have a wider colour gamut?
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post #12 of 47 Old 11-03-2014, 06:16 PM
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Originally Posted by conan48 View Post
Can someone explain what is so special about quantum dots? Didn't the sony 65X900a use quantum dots? and it was dimmer then any other LED LCD, and it's blacks were no better for it, and the only thing I noticed was colour saturation was deeper, but that's it.
Nothing other than the deeper color saturation you already mentioned...


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Originally Posted by conan48 View Post
Can quantum dots block light output from the LED backlight?
No.


Quote:
Originally Posted by conan48 View Post
or enhance contrast, response time, etc?
No.


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Originally Posted by conan48 View Post
or is it only purely to have a wider colour gamut?
Yes, that's it.
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Nothing other than the deeper color saturation you already mentioned...




No.




No.




Yes, that's it.
I guess I'm kinda confused as to why Samsung is making such a big deal out of quantum dots. It's no way comparable to OLED, and it looks like another BS marketing gimmick to try and confuse the poor public. Sony even abandoned QD, and still kept the Triluminos name for their non QD sets. LOL.

Also, doesn't the new red wavelength expanded LEDs already cover 99% of the broadcast gamut? (like the Panasonic AX900)

We better hope LG OLED succeeds or the future looks grim...
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post #14 of 47 Old 11-03-2014, 08:12 PM
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Originally Posted by conan48 View Post
I guess I'm kinda confused as to why Samsung is making such a big deal out of quantum dots. It's no way comparable to OLED, and it looks like another BS marketing gimmick to try and confuse the poor public. Sony even abandoned QD, and still kept the Triluminos name for their non QD sets. LOL.
I think you've got it pegged: 'thin' then 'curved' and now 'xLED' (or whatever Samsungs brand for QDF turns out to be )




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Originally Posted by conan48 View Post
Also, doesn't the new red wavelength expanded LEDs already cover 99% of the broadcast gamut? (like the Panasonic AX900).
Yes (which is probably why Sony has abandoned QDF - but not 'Triluminous' WCG )



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Originally Posted by conan48 View Post
We better hope LG OLED succeeds or the future looks grim...
If LG is unable to get production at M2 ramped up quickly and LED prices down to a reasonably small premium over high-end LED/LCDs soon, grim is probably the right word for it
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post #15 of 47 Old 11-04-2014, 05:39 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by conan48 View Post
I guess I'm kinda confused as to why Samsung is making such a big deal out of quantum dots. It's no way comparable to OLED, and it looks like another BS marketing gimmick to try and confuse the poor public. Sony even abandoned QD, and still kept the Triluminos name for their non QD sets. LOL.

Also, doesn't the new red wavelength expanded LEDs already cover 99% of the broadcast gamut? (like the Panasonic AX900)

We better hope LG OLED succeeds or the future looks grim...
Broadcast gamut (rec. 709) will be outdated if DCI-P3 is the gamut chosen for 4k BD as is the best guess at the moment. Check the Polish review in the AX900 thread. It is capable of a much wider gamut than 709. IMO this is the kind of gamut coverage you want in any TV that you buy if "future proofing" is important to you. In my case, I am waiting for the 4k BD specs to be published and will not buy a 4k main viewing set unless it can meet them.
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post #16 of 47 Old 11-04-2014, 10:55 AM
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post #17 of 47 Old 11-04-2014, 11:09 AM
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As I've said for quite some time, there was no chance whatsoever of Samsung restarting OLED TV production using their fundamentally flawed small mask scanning method. Even one of the world's great manufacturers cannot defy laws like gravity and cannot repeal fundamental operations tenets like the "Herbie problem".

That said, the timetable here is critical. By ruling out 2015, they quietly rule in the possibility of 2016. And in 2016, you'd have the very first possible chance of a printable OLED TV using equipment from Kateeva. It would be a small volume at most by then, but it would be at least possible.

Samsung surely would have a tough row to hoe catching LG doing what LG does (though it could, and it's a fallacy to suggest otherwise to a point because the ecosystem will mature around LG, which enables competitors). But it won't try to do what LG does if/when it jumps back in. It will seek to leapfrog. That's actually much harder, but it remains a tantalizing possibility.

There's a saying about "everything in moderation". If only it was applied to well, you know...
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post #18 of 47 Old 11-04-2014, 12:04 PM
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If the price for OLED doesn't drop to be competitive with LCD, it will fail. No matter how good the picture quality is. People buy primarily based on size and cost.


LG has to fire on all cylinders for the next couple of years to make OLED work and I hope it works out, but odds are against it.
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post #19 of 47 Old 11-04-2014, 01:08 PM
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As I've said for quite some time, there was no chance whatsoever of Samsung restarting OLED TV production using their fundamentally flawed small mask scanning method. Even one of the world's great manufacturers cannot defy laws like gravity and cannot repeal fundamental operations tenets like the "Herbie problem".

That said, the timetable here is critical. By ruling out 2015, they quietly rule in the possibility of 2016. And in 2016, you'd have the very first possible chance of a printable OLED TV using equipment from Kateeva. It would be a small volume at most by then, but it would be at least possible.

Samsung surely would have a tough row to hoe catching LG doing what LG does (though it could, and it's a fallacy to suggest otherwise to a point because the ecosystem will mature around LG, which enables competitors). But it won't try to do what LG does if/when it jumps back in. It will seek to leapfrog. That's actually much harder, but it remains a tantalizing possibility.
A lot of ifs, maybes and who knows. The equates to 'not likely' in my book.
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post #20 of 47 Old 11-04-2014, 10:56 PM
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A lot of ifs, maybes and who knows. The equates to 'not likely' in my book.
Here's the thing, though. Everyone betting against the next wave of OLED makers catching (and maybe even passing) LG is largely betting against OLED. How do I know? Well, if this is the technology that's replacing LCD in TV, it's being made by between 5 and 10 manufacturers at a scale even LG is not actually yet contemplating.

We were hear in LCD once, and the funny thing is: It wasn't that long ago. Back then, companies like Sharp had an unbelievable leg up on producing the panels that would go into LCD TVs. And rambunctious upstarts like Samsung would show off a 40-inch LCD they simply couldn't manufacture year after year and year. Then one year, they could make it. Then they were building 8G fabs. Then LG was. And Chi Mei. And AUO. And Chungwa. And Sharp was still doing it too. And something that was a small little thing was in the hands of 6 giant companies with giant fabrication plants -- and a bunch of smaller players too.

So while today absolutely no one can dream of touching LG and it's honestly infinitesimal production capability, the reality is most of us would still like to believe that as the decade ages, OLED takes on more and more share of the TV business. For that to happen, Samsung, some version of the Japanese display makers, ideally a number of Chinese companies, as well as the Taiwanese all need to invest in OLED. And when they do, either they need to simply buy the same stuff LG does, perhaps with some tweaks to do it better/faster/cheaper/less patent infringe-y... Or, they need to do it very differently using a discontinuous technology innovation like printing.

LCD had a discontinuous technology innovation, incidentally, that allowed for the LC material to be sputtered in minutes instead of hours/days. Without it, there was never an LCD TV industry of the kind we see today. As currently constituted, what LG offers us is not an industry either. And it's far less robust than the plasma industry was.

There's a saying about "everything in moderation". If only it was applied to well, you know...
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post #21 of 47 Old 11-05-2014, 04:39 AM
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So Mark, although I'm not disagreeing with anything you've said, per se, it doesn't change my original thought, 'lots of ifs, maybes and who knows'.

I've never believed OLED would supplant LCD. The long, arduous road to get only where we are today, only reinforces that belief. It's not as if the other big boys haven't looked at OLED, but they all seem to have come to pretty much the same end point. That's a lot of manufacturing prowess with very little results.

No, I think it's more likely that OLED will remain in 'niche market land' for quite some time. I sincerely hope something like the printing option becomes a reality, but again, it looks like it's years off at best.

Nobody wants to be betting against OLED since QD surely is not a substitute, but reality and wishful thinking sometimes clash. Right now, IMO, OLED replacing LCD is just that, wishful thinking.

I hope I'm wrong, because you know how high I am about OLED.
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post #22 of 47 Old 11-05-2014, 05:54 AM
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Samsung is making a smart move and playing it safe for investors. Samsung is bleeding profit, mostly through its mobile sector and can't afford more risk right now. Let someone else throw money at R&D.

I was never looking for OLED to replace LCD entirely (not for a long time, anyway), just the high end. I have quite a few LG products around the house and find them to be very good, so I've got no issues with the branding.
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post #23 of 47 Old 11-05-2014, 03:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ken Ross View Post
So Mark, although I'm not disagreeing with anything you've said, per se, it doesn't change my original thought, 'lots of ifs, maybes and who knows'.

I've never believed OLED would supplant LCD. The long, arduous road to get only where we are today, only reinforces that belief. It's not as if the other big boys haven't looked at OLED, but they all seem to have come to pretty much the same end point. That's a lot of manufacturing prowess with very little results.

No, I think it's more likely that OLED will remain in 'niche market land' for quite some time. I sincerely hope something like the printing option becomes a reality, but again, it looks like it's years off at best.

Nobody wants to be betting against OLED since QD surely is not a substitute, but reality and wishful thinking sometimes clash. Right now, IMO, OLED replacing LCD is just that, wishful thinking.

I hope I'm wrong, because you know how high I am about OLED.
A serious question is "how niche-y is niche". I don't think this business is remotely sustainable in the low-single-digit millions. It's probably sustainable in the hypothetical M3-ish levels for LG, but would really benefit if there was LG @ M3 levels plus 2-3 other players. That's, I dunno, spitballing it like 15-20 million TVs? That's still tiny as it's well under 10% of TV volumes. But maybe that's sustainable.

What we have now with LG at "not even M2 levels" is not something they will sustain in out years without clear growth.

There's a saying about "everything in moderation". If only it was applied to well, you know...
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A serious question is "how niche-y is niche". I don't think this business is remotely sustainable in the low-single-digit millions. It's probably sustainable in the hypothetical M3-ish levels for LG, but would really benefit if there was LG @ M3 levels plus 2-3 other players. That's, I dunno, spitballing it like 15-20 million TVs? That's still tiny as it's well under 10% of TV volumes. But maybe that's sustainable.

What we have now with LG at "not even M2 levels" is not something they will sustain in out years without clear growth.
Depends on what the definition of 'is' is.
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post #25 of 47 Old 11-06-2014, 08:10 AM
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Oled will dominate if it is cheaper and better then LCD.


In every business unit there is high end market. Receivers, Cars, Audio Equipment, Clothes, everywhere. And those are the most profitable, because a 50 inch LCD costs 500 bucks, the LG Oled 3500. The difference is extreme huge.


Past in the days there where also 3k, 5k Plasmas but there you had a little CRT Tube TV at home, so it was the upgrade of your life.


And after the first Plasma TVs, the LCD TVs came, and Samsung invented the LED LCD TVs, they looked super slim, LED was new, it was something of the future. And it was because of the slim LED Design Samsung took over TV business.


2014/2015 Samsung could easily deliver the high End Market with a new Plasma Model. 50, 60, 70 inch. Samsung could claim: They built the last plasma, they could shift a lot of high end Panasonic owners to there first Samsung, they missed a huge chance.


I just think that the production of plasma tvs was the nail in the coffin. And the problem with sales. Normal couple buy a plasma, see IR and freak out, return it. In the end its a high end enthusiast product. IMO.


And what I don't understand, why 2000, 3000, or ZT 4000 Plasma TV business is not profitable, but the price war against cheap china brands in lcd business is.


And one big problem of plasma was: Screen size. Even in the beginning of plasma you could get 50, 60 inch plasmas. 2014 there is no 70, 80 inch plasma. Huge failure of the producers.


Plasma evolved in quality but had not the WOW effect in retail stores. Just imagine a 70 inch 3000 buck Samsung Plasma in 2014.


There is a high end market, but the companies don't address it properly, and for the potential buyers convincing.
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The thing about plasma is this: It was only thriving when it was the bargain choice in big displays. There is no market in "expensive, niche display based on its own unique technology."

That market doesn't exist. It's not profitable. It won't be profitable. It won't remain around.

That's why I ask, seriously, what niche is big enough to sustain an OLED TV business? My sense is 15-20 million units does it. My near certainty is 5-10 million is very uncomfortably close to someone waking up after a bad quarter and saying, "Why are we doing this?" and shutting it down. But those are broad estimates.

There's a saying about "everything in moderation". If only it was applied to well, you know...
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post #27 of 47 Old 11-06-2014, 05:21 PM
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The thing about plasma is this: It was only thriving when it was the bargain choice in big displays. There is no market in "expensive, niche display based on its own unique technology."

That market doesn't exist. It's not profitable. It won't be profitable. It won't remain around.

That's why I ask, seriously, what niche is big enough to sustain an OLED TV business? My sense is 15-20 million units does it. My near certainty is 5-10 million is very uncomfortably close to someone waking up after a bad quarter and saying, "Why are we doing this?" and shutting it down. But those are broad estimates.
OLED needs to replace LCd, and if that not works out it will be the end of OLED TVs..for now. My sense is that when OLED fails they will try it again, kind a like 3D. It has to much to offer to let go easily.
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post #28 of 47 Old 11-06-2014, 05:40 PM
 
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With as Good as the as the Sony 65900B is I am more than happy to check out Samsungs QD technology. Samsung might not beat An OLED with it but they might just build the best 80" LED 4K set with it.
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post #29 of 47 Old 11-06-2014, 07:16 PM
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LG is very unpopular. The same is true in Poland !?
They are condemned to a mega success because bought in 2005. KODAK technology, printing OLED panels WRGB (for only 100 million usd).
OLED TV rozjedzie TV market.
It's just bake time and reasonable conduct by LG OLED project.

Samsung withdraws from the OLED TV because they chose the wrong RGB technology.
These are MEGA losses for them.

So please for more favor for LG, because all of us are interested in improving the image quality in our homes.

And finally forget about the PDP.
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post #30 of 47 Old 11-12-2014, 05:01 AM
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Originally Posted by conan48 View Post
Can someone explain what is so special about quantum dots? Didn't the sony 65X900a use quantum dots? and it was dimmer then any other LED LCD, and it's blacks were no better for it, and the only thing I noticed was colour saturation was deeper, but that's it.

Can quantum dots block light output from the LED backlight? or enhance contrast, response time, etc? or is it only purely to have a wider colour gamut?
QD-LED is just like an OLED where instead of organic compounds (carbon-based molecules) Quantum dots are used to convert invisible light into visible light.


Samsung plan to use the "arrays" of QD-LEDs (LED doped with Quantum dots) to improve contrast and color gamut.


Samsung are going to make FLADs with Quantum dots "dyed" LED backlights and call them QD-LED TVs, however it is still a working name, but if I were you I'd start getting used to the QD-LED acronym.


Due to sophisticated patterning self-emissive (QD)-LED TVs are out of the question at the moment.


Here's some more info on Samsung and QD-LED
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2014/11...ntum_dot_next/

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Last edited by stas3098; 11-12-2014 at 05:06 AM.
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