Originally Posted by Ken Ross
A lot of ifs, maybes and who knows. The equates to 'not likely' in my book.
Here's the thing, though. Everyone betting against the next wave of OLED makers catching (and maybe even passing) LG is largely betting against OLED. How do I know? Well, if this is the technology that's replacing LCD in TV, it's being made by between 5 and 10 manufacturers at a scale even LG is not actually yet contemplating.
We were hear in LCD once, and the funny thing is: It wasn't that long ago
. Back then, companies like Sharp had an unbelievable leg up on producing the panels that would go into LCD TVs. And rambunctious upstarts like Samsung would show off a 40-inch LCD they simply couldn't manufacture year after year and year. Then one year, they could make it. Then they were building 8G fabs. Then LG was. And Chi Mei. And AUO. And Chungwa. And Sharp was still doing it too. And something that was a small little thing was in the hands of 6 giant companies with giant fabrication plants -- and a bunch of smaller players too.
So while today absolutely no one can dream of touching LG and it's honestly infinitesimal production capability, the reality is most of us would still like to believe that as the decade ages, OLED takes on more and more share of the TV business. For that to happen, Samsung, some version of the Japanese display makers, ideally a number of Chinese companies, as well as the Taiwanese all need to invest in OLED. And when they do, either they need to simply buy the same stuff LG does, perhaps with some tweaks to do it better/faster/cheaper/less patent infringe-y... Or, they need to do it very differently using a discontinuous technology innovation like printing.
LCD had a discontinuous technology innovation, incidentally, that allowed for the LC material to be sputtered in minutes instead of hours/days. Without it, there was never an LCD TV industry of the kind we see today. As currently constituted, what LG offers us is not an industry either. And it's far less robust than the plasma industry was.