Originally Posted by rogo
I've never failed to basically acquire pricing when I went to CES -- even when pricing wasn't announced.
I can't believe no one uses basic techniques to get the info, even if they have to caveat it with "this wasn't confirmed, and is basically an estimate".
I'm assuming $4000 for the entry 65. In short, a 50% price increase of what last year's model sells for.
If I'm reading things correctly, the 6 series was fake priced at $6500, dropped to around $2800.
The 7 series was fake priced at $4500, dropped to around $2600.
Without overstating this, it seems like the bottom of the curve isn't really falling much. (Yes, I know there have been short-term sales that take these numbers lower!)
It's interested though that the top-end of the price curve did some down 30% year-over-year from 2016 to 2017. While the bottom end came down about 10%.
You are forgetting to 65B7A - it launched at $3300 and dipped to $2300 (currently $2650): https://camelcamelcamel.com/LG-Elect...uct/B073K7ZFNF
So year-on-year, the least expensive OLED available through official channels dropped from $2800 in 2016 to $2300 in 2017, an 18% drop.
The other thing to note is that LG is putting more and more effort into differentiating the lower-end of the product line. In 2016, the B6P and C6P were pretty much identical TVs at identical pricing. B6 was flat without 3D, C6 was curved with 3D (differentiation no one was prepared to pay a premium for).
In 2017, the only difference between the C7P and B7P was literally cosmetic, though LG introduced the lower-end B7A with slightly inferior audio at a lower price.
Now for 2018, there is the first substantive difference between the C8P and all of the B8s - inferior processing on the B8s.
I think it is pretty clear that LGs strategy is to sell higher volumes through new even-lower entry-level offerings while holding the line on the premium product lines they have established, starting with the G and E from 2016, adding the W in 2017, and now including the C as it graduates to having the same top-tier processors as it's higher-end brethren and now a 77" screen size to boot.
That makes extrapolation challenging. I thought we'd have a very, very real shot at a $2000 65-inch this year (real pricing) but I'm somewhat less sure right now looking at the data.
I'm pretty confident the lowest-end WOLEE offering will agan dip 15-20% below 2017 levels, meaning a 65" WOLED will is very likely to be available this November at procig below $2000 through official channels. It is just a WOLED that truly may be lacking some of the features you covet.
Noteworthy that if the 65 launches at $3500, that'd be another 20+% below last year's price but would still leave 30% of "room" for LG to really not change the bottom end price at all.
LG has already launched a 65" OLED at pricing under $3500 - the 65B7A launched at $3300. I expect the 65B8A to launch under $3000 this year.
If we turn to the 65C8P, I won't be the least bit surprised to see LG keep launch picing at 2017 levels ($4000). Launch prices are nothing more than marketing statements of quality and prestige, and LG seems to like those $1000 gaps, so I'm going to go out on a limb and go ahead and predict:
65W8P launch MSRP of $7000
65G8P launch MSRP of $6000
65E8P launch MSRP of $5000
65C8P launch MSRP of $4000
65B8P launch MSRP of $3500
65B8A launch MSRP of $3000
Now, we see forecasts for much bigger sales from LG, IHS, et al., indicating they don't believe this will happen -- keep in mind that some huge, huge proportion of sales are in Q4 and therefore at/near the lowest prices -- so this becomes interesting. It seems like LG needs something close to an entire year of pricing at / below Q4 levels to hit their own, announced sales targets.
Average selling price of 65" WOLEDs is certain to decline by 15-20% in 2018 to support this increased level, but that doesn't mean that the price of the C-Series and higher is going to be declining at that rate. LG may be perfectly happing selling the same number of 65C8Ps as they sold in 2017 and driving increased levels of sales to the 65B7P, 65B7A, and who's to say thay may not be introducing another late even-lower model mid-2018? (though my guess is that the B8A is enough).
So maybe I'm being pessimistic and the intro price will be $3500 after all, with the year reaching $1999. If we see that, wonderful. And also an indication that a 65-inch at $1500 is <2 years away. A $1000 version <5!
I'm getting excited. Even though I had to talk myself into it.
To recap my view:
65C8P launching with MSRP under $3500 is unlikely but 65B8A launching below that level is a near-certainty.
65C8P dipping under $2000 by November is exceedingly unlikely but 6B8A dipping under $2000 by then seems probable.
And going beyond that, the 65" entry-level WOLED could concievably dip under $1500 by 2019 but seems almost certain to do so by 2020.
And by 2022 when the 10.5G plant is in production and 65" WOLED panels are produced 6-to-a-sheet rather than 3-to-a-sheet, 65" entry-level WOLEDs dipping to $1000 that year or the next seems like a pretty sure bet.